Strathkelvin by-election 7 th June 2001

'In the successive parliamentary seats of Dunbartonshire East and Strathkelvin and Bearsden, the fortunes of the main parties ebbed and flowed. It was represented by Labour from 1970-74, 1979-83 and 1987-97. The Conservatives were on top from February to October 1974 and 1983-87. The SNP held sway from October 1974 to 1979. In 1979, Labour regained the seat, but boundary changes in 1983 did not favour the party and the seat was won by the Conservatives.' Jim McBeth in the Scotsman, 31 st March 2003.

Hospital threat unites 'Surrey in Scotland'

By Jim McBeth in the Scotsman 31 st March 2003

NOT far from the Crow Road, near Clachan of Campsie, is a woman named Margaret, dressed in wax jacket and pashmina. She believes the closure of Stobhill hospital in Glasgow would be a bad thing.

Supporting a Scottish parliamentary independent candidate, standing on a single platform of fighting that closure, however, would be a good thing.

At a time when "her" Conservatives are haemorrhaging support, she will vote for Dr Jean Turner rather than nationalists, wishy-washy Liberals, the despised Labour Party or those unfathomable Marxists.

On the eastern fringe of Strathkelvin and Bearsden - "Surrey in Scotland" - her attitude is significant, in that she is geographically and culturally distant from inner-city Springburn, where Stobhill is situated. In fact, while the hospital serves the constituency, it does not lie within it.

However, it has become a totem, the eagle-standard for a political battle that will, whatever happens come 1 May, send a powerful message of voter disenchantment to Labour.

Dr Turner, 63, a retired GP, has already administered unpalatable medicine when, two years ago, at a by-election in the constituency, she came second to Labour's Brian Fitzpatrick.

She polled 7,572 votes to slash Labour's majority.

Dr Turner, who worked in Springburn for 25 years, was critical of the rationalisation plan for hospitals and the Executive's track record on health.

She believed then that winning votes from Labour would send Holyrood a wake-up call.

In the end, she claims, it did not, and Mr Fitzpatrick's seat is again under threat from a woman some ill-advisedly dismiss as a Miss Marple candidate.

In some circles, admittedly those in which people gamble on long odds, there is even a belief she can win.

A lot has happened since 2001 - two more years of perceived disappointment at the Executive's handling of health.

A greater challenge from the Lib Dems has emerged at local authority level, where they exercise minority control of East Dunbartonshire Council, the constituency's heart.

Added to that is a belief by some that the sitting MSP has been revealed to be weak and aloof, and too much "on message" with his leadership.

Finally, there is a potential backlash against Labour over the war in Iraq.

Also in the equation is the growth of microcosm politics, taking Joe Soap to Soap Box, ordinary people opposing professional politicians perceived to be dedicated to nothing but the maintenance of their power.

"That is how I feel," said Dr Turner. "I believe I can win, but my fear of success is that it may ruin my good name."

She does not speak wholly in jest.

Dr Turner added: "I regard Holyrood as a place where knives abound, where promises can now be broken because power has been achieved.

"That is how politicians are perceived; manipulative, dishonourable.

"The final straw for me was when a petitions' committee dismissed a document with 43,000 signatures urging the Executive to re-think Stobhill.

"How can Labour, meant to be for the people, ignore their will? Because of it, the mood of people is changing."

And the mood is also building.

In Gordon Brown's Dunfermline, the Fife Health Service Action Group is fielding candidates, in protest at cutbacks at Queen Margaret hospital; in Henry McLeish's former Fife Central constituency, an independent may stand on an "anti-sleaze" platform.

An independent voice raised on an issue of importance may get its best chance of being heard at this election.

John Morrison, the deputy leader of East Dunbartonshire Council, said: "The big issue is Stobhill, and that is a strange position for Labour, the party of national health.

"Dr Turner upset their unassailability. The party is unpopular over Iraq and Brian Fitzpatrick has a singular ability for rubbing people up the wrong way and lacking credibility.

"The money is on Labour to hold, but the odds of an upset are excellent."

Mr Fitzpatrick, who threatened to resign over Stobhill, but did not, concedes the hospital is a "very important issue".

He said: "I believe what concerns the country is reflected here - economic development, crime, schools and health."

In reality, Strathkelvin and Bearsden, which Professor John Curtice of the politics department of Strathclyde University, described as "Surrey in Scotland", is a place were problems do not abound.

It is diverse, from a rural periphery to an archetypal leafy suburb - Bearsden - to the Labour towns of Bishopbriggs and Kirkintilloch.

Bearsden is affluent, a commuter village, where 80 per cent of the homes are owner-occupied.

Professionals and managers account for half the population of the area. The constituency's main industries are agriculture, construction, transport and light industry.

Alexander Johnston, 42, a computer company manager from Bearsden, believes that Stobhill has become the issue because it reflects "real concern". He said: "Illness and injury are no respectors of affluence.

"I don't want, God forbid, to be dying in an ambulance running past a closed Stobhill to the other side of Glasgow," Mr Johnston added.

Ironically, the health of the constituency is excellent. It has fewer smokers, obese people and drinkers than average. Deaths by accident, from cancer, heart attacks and strokes are 20 to 65 per cent below average.

In education, the number of school-leavers with Highers is 42 per cent above average and unemployment is half the norm. There are fewer one-parent families and more owner-occupiers. The average income is 25 per cent higher and there are, on average, 41 per cent fewer income support claimants.

It is not hard to identify why Stobhill has become a focus for wider dissent.

Dr Turner is vehemently opposed to the planned £700 million reorganisation of acute hospitals in Glasgow, which would downgrade Stobhill to an ambulatory care and diagnostic centre. She said: "Stobhill provides surgery, medicine, gynaecology, oncology, ophthalmology, coronary and intensive care.

"With hospital admissions increasing, I can't see how you can lose a hospital. The government think the way to treat patients is for them never to be in a hospital bed."

Waiting times and bed shortages are at the heart of national criticism. Last month, it overshadowed the launch of health minister Malcolm Chisholm's initiative to reform the NHS.

Critics questioned the impact of Labour's projected spending of £6.7 billion a year if it retains power.

The number of patients on waiting lists for treatment has increased by more than 2,500 to 84,996, and according to Dr Turner: "Waiting times will increase after the election."

Dr Peter Lynch, of Stirling University, said: "It's a strong issue. If Labour are not perceived to stand for health, they stand for nothing." Prof Curtice added: "It has given an impressive candidate like Dr Turner a fighting chance." Dr Turner may have one other tool in the box - history. The area is renowned for political unpredictability. The core of the constituency was the Dunbartonshire East seat, which increased to 100,000 voters in 1970.

Strathkelvin and Bearsden was created in 1983 with 66 per cent of the voters from Dunbartonshire East, 27 per cent from North Lanarkshire and the rest from StirlingshireWest. In boundary changes in the 1990s, the northern Milton-Gartshore area from the old Monklands West was added. Between 1977 and 1982, Strathkelvin District Council was controlled by the SNP, the Conservatives and then Labour.

In the successive parliamentary seats of Dunbartonshire East and Strathkelvin and Bearsden, the fortunes of the main parties ebbed and flowed.

It was represented by Labour from 1970-74, 1979-83 and 1987-97. The Conservatives were on top from February to October 1974 and 1983-87. The SNP held sway from October 1974 to 1979. In 1979, Labour regained the seat, but boundary changes in 1983 did not favour the party and the seat was won by the Conservatives.

The tables turned in 1987 when the neurosurgeon Dr Sam Galbraith was elected and then returned in 1992.

In the Scottish elections, Dr Galbraith won again, but until his retirement he was dogged by controversies over health, as well as the mire of the exams fiasco in which he became bogged down as education minister.

Labour is hoping that the Stobhill issue does not return to haunt them, that it is a political and historical hangover from which they can recover by 1 May.

2001 By-election result:

BRIAN FITZPATRICK, LABOUR - 15,401;
JANET LAW, SNP - 6,457;
CHARLES FERGUSON, CONSERVATIVE - 5,037;
JOHN MORRISON, LIBERAL DEMOCRAT - 7,147;
DR JEAN TURNER, INDEPENDENT - 7,572.

Labour majority - 7,829.