 | 'Neil has surprised many by backing Salmond, but when the chips are down the SNP membership rarely acts like turkeys voting for Christmas. That's why the party has survived so long.' George Kerevan in the Scotsman, 18 th August 2004. |  |
| 'Neil has surprised many by backing Salmond, but when the chips are down the SNP membership rarely acts like turkeys voting for Christmas. That's why the party has survived so long.' George Kerevan in the Scotsman, 18 th August 2004. | |
THIS is the week when the 8,000 members of the SNP sit down with their Biros and mugs of cocoa to fill in the postal ballots for the party's leadership and deputy leadership posts. Actually, in complete defiance of the party rulebook, many ballot forms were sent out early, ostensibly because the SNP HQ was worried about the state of the postal service in non- independent Scotland.
The affair of the early-arriving ballots has moved two of the leadership candidates, Mike Russell and Roseanna Cunningham, to wonder out loud if some in party HQ are anxious to shorten the time for debate and so give the Alex Salmond campaign steamroller even more of an advantage. Personally, I suspect more cock-up than conspiracy.
Besides, in the small world of the SNP, despite the flurry of manifesto commitments, this one is going to be decided on personality.
In fact, barring the unexpected return from the grave of William Wallace, the next leader of the Nats will be Wee Alex. The reason was ably put by Alex Neil - a longtime rival of Salmond's from the ill-named fundamentalist wing of the party: "He is best placed to maximise the SNP vote." Neil has surprised many by backing Salmond, but when the chips are down the SNP membership rarely acts like turkeys voting for Christmas. That's why the party has survived so long.
However, once the party faithful have ticked the box marked "A Salmond" on one form, they still have to decide whom to vote for as deputy leader. And it is here that the games really begin.
There are three candidates. First up is Nicola Sturgeon, who is running on the "dream" ticket with Salmond. Before Alex re-entered the lists, she was planning to run for leader herself, though with Salmond's strong backing. The new Salmond-Sturgeon duo is the outcome of two considerations. Alex was clearly worried that his candidacy, by effectively knocking out of the race the early front-runners, Sturgeon and Cunningham, would appear as anti-feminist. In addition, Salmond intends to stay at Westminster until 2007, so he desperately needs an ally to hold the reins back at Holyrood.
Such a finely-balanced house of cards could easily be upset by the contrary SNP membership if they vote in either of the other two candidates for deputy leader, Christine Grahame and Fergus Ewing. The rank and file - even the Salmond loyalists - don't like to be taken for granted. In such a small party, which has always jealously guarded members' rights, they are used to judging every contest on personal merit. Being told they have to take Nicola if they want Alex cuts against the political grain.
Besides, the voting procedure is just made to cause trouble. Members will rank the candidates in order of choice. Unless Sturgeon gets 50 per cent of the votes first time round, the second preferences of the lowest-polling candidate will be redistributed. In other words, the combined Grahame-Ewing votes could dish Nicola Sturgeon. But will they?
Christine Grahame, a solicitor born in Burton-on-Trent, is not a household name, but she is liked inside the tiny SNP electorate that counts. She is not an ideological firebrand like the recently-expelled and unlamented Campbell Martin, MSP, but she is firmly on the more fundamentalist wing of the party and so could act as a magnet for the votes of those, either fundie or evolutionist, who want to send Alex a message.
Christine Grahame's grit should not be underestimated. Back at the SNP conference before the 1997 election, she moved the direct negative to Salmond's proposal to back devolution as a halfway house in Labour's proposed referendum. Most of the leading fundamentalists had gone to ground, on the basis that there was no practical alternative. Grahame was brave enough to stick her head over the parapet. I sometimes regret not seconding her. As a recent defector from Labour, I could see the awful prospect looming of a Greater Strathclyde Regional Council - though SRC would never have spent £450 million on its HQ.
Fergus Ewing has the handicap of his clan name. The Ewings form what counts as the SNP's establishment, which has made the rank and file sometimes disdainful of Fergus. However, he is actually one of the hardest working and tactically assiduous members of the SNP inner core. He has also shown serious political skills: in 2003, he finally won his Inverness seat past the post after unrelenting trench warfare against the sitting Labour member. And don't be fooled by the goofy looks: he is an experienced member of his local mountain-rescue team.
FERGUS Ewing's real problem is that he is firmly on the traditional right wing of the SNP. Once upon a time, before Alex Salmond made it a social democratic one, the party represented the Middle Scotland of small businessmen, small towns and talented cultural nationalists. Actually, that made the old SNP more classless than the modern one; and more attuned to the needs of the economy. Thus Fergus is a closet tax-cutter after my own heart, while every other SNP leadership contender point-blank refuses to say whether they think the average Scot pays too much to Gordon Brown.
Fergus is probably too right-wing for the SNP rank and file, so he is likely to come third in the race for deputy. Which is a pity, because his forensic ability to master a brief and his dogged patience would eventually undermine the more shallow Jack McConnell at the dispatch box. However, if the Fergus Ewing votes go to Christine Grahame, we might see her, and not Nicola Sturgeon, doing the honours. What then?
There would certainly be a problem for Alex Salmond. Far from his having a cipher back at Holyrood, Ms Grahame would want to be her own woman: "I would confer with Alex and I would refer to Alex, but I would not defer to him because the deputy would be there with the full endorsement of the members."
Such a division between Salmond at Westminster and Grahame at Holyrood would be exploited to the full by Labour. In addition, I'm not sure that Christine Grahame, despite her reputation as convener of the Justice 1 Committee, has the necessary experience or leadership skills to rally the MSP band at Holyrood. Which might explain why the First Minister has returned from holiday with a lilt in his step. Mr McConnell has been busy phoning newspaper editors, regaling them with the various brainwaves he has had on how to pep up the Scottish economy. Doubtless they will involve spending more of my money. Whether he has informed the deputy first minister, Jim Wallace, who is nominally in charge of the economics brief, seems doubtful.
Being ignored is, of course, the usual fate of deputies. And here lies the blindingly obvious truth in the SNP's dilemma over the deputy leadership. The post is a token irrelevance, except for the fact that Alex Salmond wants to run the show from Westminster. This is not just tricky, it is political suicide for a party that has lost two Holyrood elections in a row and must win the next one in 2007 to stay in the game.
Alex Salmond needs to come back to Holyrood soon, or his message will be lost in the post.
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