 | 'This is the first election fought under one-member one-vote and no-one knows how that is going to pan out.' An SNP activist, 28 th June 2004. |  |
| 'This is the first election fought under one-member one-vote and no-one knows how that is going to pan out.' An SNP activist, 28 th June 2004. | |
MIKE Russell, the former SNP chief executive, is expected to enter the race for the SNP
leadership today, turning the fight into a three-way contest for the direction of nationalism.
Mr Russell is not an MSP and will therefore start at a disadvantage compared with his rivals,
Roseanna Cunningham, the current deputy leader, and Nicola Sturgeon, the justice
spokeswoman.
But the former MSP wants to provide an outlet for all those in the party who want to see a more
moderate, modern and business-friendly SNP.
Mr Russell will suffer from another major disadvantage as well - he is blamed by many in the
party for John Swinney's demise.
He made the now famous remark about "men in grey kilts" coming to get Mr Swinney if the
SNP fared badly in the European elections and he is being held responsible for some of the
briefing against Mr Swinney that led to his downfall.
The situation appears to support the views of analysts who say the Nationalists habitually
undermine their leaders but, when the leaders have gone, turn viciously on those they blame for
the assassination.
This will damage Mr Russell's chances of election but it will also impede Ms Sturgeon's
performance. Ms Sturgeon was a loyal lieutenant of Mr Swinney's but some senior figures
believe she started manoeuvring for his job too quickly - even before he had resigned.
The only question that has not been answered is whether the three candidates will be joined by a
fourth, Alex Neil.
The fundamentalist MSP was still considering his options yesterday and may enter the race at
some time next week.
Mr Russell's intervention will do some, moderate, damage to Ms Sturgeon's campaign because
it will deprive her of some gradualist support.
But that will be nothing compared with the damage that Mr Neil might do to Ms Cunningham's
campaign if he decides to stand.
Ms Cunningham is trying to unify the party by standing on a broadly left-wing and fiercely
pro-independence ticket.
She has the chance to take most of the votes from Mr Neil's wing of the party - as long as he
does not stand.
His candidacy would split the left-wing vote and be a blow to her chances of success.
But whether or not Mr Neil stands, Ms Cunningham will remain the frontrunner. She has
support across the party, she is the best known and respected of the candidates, and she has the
experience and talent to become a strong leader.
Ms Sturgeon starts from behind in the race between the two women but has already attracted
some heavyweight support within the party.
However, one activist said Ms Sturgeon appeared to be fighting the wrong sort of campaign
already.
The activist said: "Nicola is trying to pull together a lot of MPs and MSPs - but having a
photocall with a lot of senior colleagues doesn't really matter this time. This is the first election
fought under one-member one-vote and no-one knows how that is going to pan out. It is not as
if you can win just by bringing a few names on board."
The one-member one-vote election will certainly throw up a few surprises, and it will give Ms
Cunningham an advantage because of the patchy nature of the SNP's support.
There are about 8,000 members of the party who can vote but they are concentrated in the
North-east of Scotland, in Tayside and the Highlands - Mr Swinney's Tayside North
constituency is though to have about 1,000 on its own.
Ms Cunningham represents Perth and has a power base in Perthshire, a strong Nationalist area.
Ms Sturgeon, on the other hand, is based in Glasgow, which is not a strong SNP area. Even if
she secures the support of all the SNP members in the city, it will not give her enough to start
to challenge the vote from the central Highlands and Tayside.
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