 | 'With strengths and weaknesses attached to both women in seemingly equal measure, all the indications are for a close race over the summer. As our poll of party conveners reveals today, neither woman has a clear lead. The decision of arch-Swinney critic Alex Neil could well be crucial to the final outcome.' Eddie Barnes in Scotland on Sunday 27 th June 2004. |  |
JOHN Swinney made the decision alone. At home in Blairgowrie, Perthsire, he decided the game was up. The speculation about his leadership was not going to let up. And the remains of his resolve had been punctured by confirmation that not all his cabinet colleagues were backing him. He picked up the phone and began to tell family and friends the news.
His mood had swung rapidly over the weekend. Swinney had spent Saturday and Sunday at home with his wife Elizabeth, a BBC journalist, in a characteristically determined mood. The Sunday papers brought more woeful news - including two straw polls, one in this newspaper, which showed that support among both local party conveners and his own MSPs was draining away.
But Swinney refused to give in - even calling up allies such as former Glasgow MSP Kenny Gibson at 8pm on Sunday to thank him for a supportive article he had written in the press. He told Gibson that, despite everything, he was resolved to carry on.
By the following day, however, the clouds were gathering. While Swinney remained confident in his leadership prospects, he was becoming increasingly aware that this view was not shared by his close colleagues. It was this that appears to have toppled him over the edge.
"John knew that there was a challenge being planned to stand against him - and it wasn't just the usual suspects. Once that was underway, he knew he'd had it," said one ally.
The challenge, it was rumoured, was coming from former SNP chief executive Mike Russell, who was being pushed as a credible stalking horse candidate. The aim was to let other hopefuls such as Nicola Sturgeon climb on board a campaign bid without appearing to be disloyal. Sturgeon was already busy with her own plans - and travelled up to Stirling that afternoon to meet Roseanna Cunningham.
The two are close friends and go back well over a decade to when Sturgeon first emerged in the SNP. They met in a Stirling bar appropriately titled Cambio (meaning "Change" in Italian) for a chat which has inevitably drawn comparisons with the meeting between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown at the Granita restaurant in Islington, where the pair reached a deal to allow Blair to run for the leadership.
Here again were two pretenders to the crown discussing their options. Sturgeon, it is claimed, wanted to make a deal with Cunningham should a situation vacant suddenly emerge. But it was not to be. Allies of Cunningham insist instead that the deputy leader refused to countenance such a bargain while Swinney remained in post. They say she insisted that all such deal-making should only be discussed after Swinney had gone. That at least has become the received wisdom this week - a fact which has presented Cunningham with a major tactical victory.
The situation that Monday was fast moving, however. A few hours later, back home in Crieff, Cunningham received a call from Swinney who asked her if he could come over. Without asking, she knew what was coming. After the short drive from Blairgowrie in the evening sunshine, Swinney told her he had decided to go. He told no one else that night, outside of his family and his advisers. According to insiders, he was leaving a clear marker as to who he thought should be his successor.
Roseanna was in the loop and so he told her about it first. She hadn't done anything apart from back him up until then. You could say that the whole thing has coloured John's view of Nicola," said one MSP. "Basically, John realised that he could no longer rely on some of the senior people close to him. And so he went."
Another added: "He had taken the view that he would tough it out, but I think on Monday he could see then that it was just going to go on and on, and that it would never get away. It would go away for a month and then it would come back again the following month.
"Nobody said to him that you should go, but he realised he had to."
The Tuesday morning press conference at which Swinney announced his decision was followed quickly - too quickly, some say - by Cunningham's announcement that she would be standing for his job.
In doing so she has assured herself pole position. Sturgeon, meanwhile, was stuck in London, having made a pre-arranged decision to visit Westminster. She and Alex Salmond met to discuss the crisis - during which, it is understood, Salmond urged her to put herself forward as well.
"She just happened to be down in London on Tuesday. There's little doubt that Alex convinced Nicola to stand," claimed one well-placed insider. Sturgeon herself has denied taking her cue to stand from Salmond. "I discussed this with people close to me. But I did not talk to Alex about standing," she said.
But the logic behind Salmond's involvement is clear. While he and Cunningham are not enemies, neither are they close. Furthermore, the fiercely independent Cunningham would be less likely to seek or accept Salmond's advice on the party's direction. With the younger Sturgeon in control, he would have more of a say. "People think Salmond is quite a jovial character, but he's not," said one MSP. "He's actually quite reclusive and surrounds himself with a very small group of trusted people. Roseanna's not among them and they don't get on."
Despite her ambition, Sturgeon did have doubts about standing. Friends told her to wait for another chance, warning her that - at only 33 - she risked losing her private life entirely. "Nicola has a boyfriend and what she has been thinking about is whether or not it is the right time to go for it now. A lot of people were telling her that the leadership comes up every few years or so - why not wait until the next time?"
On Thursday, however, Sturgeon decided to pitch in. She and Cunningham met to discuss their bids. Both women joked about the inevitable ‘catfight' stories that would now emerge in the press. Then they went their separate ways. Now - barring the late emergence of either former MSP Mike Russell or leadership critic Alex Neil as a contender - the fight is on.
The relationship between the two fascinates many in the party. Some claim that Sturgeon remains in awe of the elder Cunningham, for whom she worked as a campaign agent before finding political office herself. She was her "heroine", party members claim.
"She has always looked up to Roseanna. After all, Roseanna is the archetypal strong woman who has done it in a man's world. There will be some people who will question whether Nicola is right to try and beat her own idol."
Then there is the question of charisma. If Swinney failed because of a lack of gravitas, what chance does Sturgeon have? Her critics question whether she has the human touch.
One party hack recalls a questionnaire Sturgeon did for a magazine several years ago, when she was first emerging into the limelight, in which a series of young politicians were asked about popular culture.
"The questions were about things like the names of nightclubs in Glasgow. Nicola did very, very badly. She came across as somebody who wasn't a young person so much as a politician who happened to be young.
"She was so involved in politics from such a young age that she hasn't had another life."
But Sturgeon's allies insist that a more rounded person has emerged in recent years - and in particular that she has stepped out of Cunningham's shadow. There is little doubt that in the five parliamentary years since devolution, Sturgeon has landed far more punches than her more experienced colleague. Meanwhile, her early campaigning message has been to heavily emphasise the fact that she represents a "new generation" - a clear attempt to stress her youth as a strength.
Being younger also has other advantages, point out others. "Friends come and go; but enemies accumulate," said one source. "Roseanna has been around longer and she therefore has more of them. She is a very spiky customer - she sometimes doesn't recognise what reality is; reality is essentially what she wants. That doesn't endear her to many people."
Old parliamentary hands also denigrate Cunningham's performance as an MP, from 1995 to 1999. "She was really very quiet, and didn't make much of an impression at all," said one. And then there is the question of her commitment to the cause. The charge of "laziness" has followed Cunningham wherever she has gone.
With strengths and weaknesses attached to both women in seemingly equal measure, all the indications are for a close race over the summer. As our poll of party conveners reveals today, neither woman has a clear lead. The decision of arch-Swinney critic Alex Neil could well be crucial to the final outcome. The survey found that many of those who would back Neil for the leadership would back Cunningham if he decided not to stand. Those on the fringes of the party who have been critical of the leadership have said that they would consider Cunningham "acceptable" if she were to win the contest. But they would not back Sturgeon.
In other words, if Neil stands, he could take massive support away from Cunningham, leaving Sturgeon with a clear run to win. The possibility of former chief executive Mike Russell entering the fray is likely to have less significance, although if the former SNP chief executive does not step forward he would be likely to back Sturgeon, to whom he is close. "I don't know why he would even want to bother," said one MSP. "He'd get absolutely massacred - and probably wouldn't even get the support to mount a challenge."
Russell told Scotland on Sunday: "You could divide the kind of advice I'm getting into two parts. On the one hand I have people urging me to stand. The rest are advising me that I need to see a psychiatrist if I am even thinking of standing."
And some in the party still want the ‘King over the Water' Alex Salmond, to return to the helm of the party, despite the fact that the former leader has been at great pains to rule himself out of the contest.
One local branch convener said: "I know that Alex has said ‘No'. But I want there to be some way of getting him back. He could get us back to winning. He would tear Jack McConnell apart and scare the life out of Labour. Alex should listen to those of us who want him back for the good of the party."
With many yet to make up their minds, most party supporters are watching to see how the two candidates present themselves before deciding.
"I need to see the whites of their eyes," said one MSP. "I want to see what is their strategy to deal with devolution. What about Europe. What about the key policy initiatives. What about the independence convention?"
Another added: "They are both very able and both very sharp. Roseanna probably has more appeal among the rank-and-file members, but Nicola is well-respected as well."
One man who is unlikely to be campaigning for either is Swinney himself - now freed from the burdens of office. "He's planning a long holiday this summer. He hasn't had a break for ages," said an aide.
Leadership eventually broke Swinney - and many believe the task of heading the vipers' nest which is the SNP remains beyond the ability of any man of woman born.
The SNP is set to find out whether a woman can do any better.
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