MSP Rankings by % vote won in 2003

'Mr Blair and the Labour party sound too much like us.'
Baroness Thatcher of Kesleven, 1 st May 2003.

How to become a constituency MSP with the support of less than 15 % of the electorate

A case for reform of the first past the post electoral system?

The following table ranks constituency MSPs by the % of the vote won on 1 st May 2003. In Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale, Lib Dem Jeremy Purves was elected with just 26.96 % of the vote. With a 52.44 % turnout in the seat, Purves obtained the support of just 14.14 % of the electorate. Even in Glasgow Springburn, where Paul Martin secured a massive 59.03 % of the vote, only 22.12 % of the Springburn electorate actually voted for him.

Only 10 MSPs - 8 Labour, one Scottish National Party and one Independent - actually gained a mandate from more than half of those who voted. Only seven MSPs managed to gain the support of more than 25 % of the electorate - Karen Whitefield in Airdrie &Shotts with 25.07 %; Cathy Jamieson in Carrick, Cumnock &Doon Valley with 25.32 %, Cathie Peattie in Falkirk East with 25.54 %; Elaine Smith in Coatbridge &Chryston with 26.06 %; Jack McConnell in Motherwell &Wishaw with 26.53 %; Dennis Canavan in Falkirk West with 26.53 % and Alasdair Morrison in the Western Isles with 27.47 % of the electorate.

The problem is that the first-past-the-post system which is still used to elect constituency MSPs in the Scottish Parliament is designed for a two party system rather than the current six party system. It dates back to the days before the Reform Act when there were less than 100 people on the electoral role in Edinburgh and seats in parliament were the gifts of patronage and corruption. Little has changed since those days. Yet still politicians wonder why people don't bother to vote!

What is the answer? Most people agree that Proportional Representation is the way ahaed. However, there are many possible variartions of many different systems, not all of which would actually actually produce a proportional result. Unfortunately, the systems can be extremely conplicated to understand and some have taken advantage of the lack of understanding by the public to propose a system, which, while undoubtedly an improvment an first-past-the-post, is open to abuse by those in power and is clearly unsuitable for a country like Scotland which has eight parties and two independents represented in its national parliament.

The Single Transferable Vote system (STV) has been proposed by Cubie, who is cited as a expert on the electoral system. Cubie claimed on Newsnight Scotland on the 8 th of May 2003, that voters were currently represented by a constituency MSP and eight regional MSPs. In fact there are only seven regional MSPs per region. Cubie's recommended system is the "Single Transferable Vote". Supporters claim that the advantages of STV are:

voters rather than party activists rank the candidates
equality amongst elected members
constituency links retained, and
proportionality

However, while the system proposed by Cubie could result in the first three criteria being met, it might not deliver proportional representation sensu stricto. With the current six party system which exists in Scotland, STV could not deliver fair and proportional representation with multi member constituencies of only three or four members. Using such a system could result in just as severe distortions, if not more so, than the current Scottish parlimaentray system of first-past-the-post with top up from an Additional Member System. This can be seen using an example where each of the 73 current Scottish constituencies elected three members to a 219 member Scottish Parliament. Using the results from 1 st May 2003, and assuming no changes in voting patterns, we can surmise:

In Tweedale, Ettrick &Lauderdale, the Tories, who polled 21.3 % and just 71 votes less than Labour, 973 votes behind the SNP, and 1,511 votes behind the Lib Dems, would be denied representation.
In Argyll &Bute, Labour, who polled 18.27 %, just 378 votes behind the SNP, and 514 votes behind the Tories would be denied representation.
In East Lothian, the SNP, who polled 16.58 %, just 285 votes behind the Tories, and 334 votes behind the Lib Dems would be denied representation.

Clearly, from these three examples, it can be see that three member STV constituencies could result in parliaments or councils where small parties such as the Greens, the SSP, and Independents might be denied representation unless they could obtain 33 % of the vote, compared to the 6 or 7 % of the vote that is necessary under the current system.

The Single Transferable Vote system could provide an excellent system of proportional representation, however it is open to abuse by the large parties who would seek to reduce any proportional representation element by opting for small (three, four of five) member constituencies, where parties or individuals would require to poll 20 % of the vote to assure representation as compared to 6.5 % under the current AMS of Proportional Representation.

There are two great disadvantages with the current AMS system which is used to elect MSPs for the Scottish parliament. Firstly, it provides two classes of MSPs, those from the constituencies, who have been directly elected, and those from the regions, who are elected from a list. The second disadvantage is that the rankings on the lists are decided, not by the public, but by party activists.

The current system is not strictly proportional, simply because there are only 56 regional list seats, compared to 73 constituency seats. Therefore, it would still be theoretically possible for one party to win an overall majority in the parliament by winning 65 constituency seats, even if it polled much less than 50 % of the vote. One simple solution might be to add an extra two list seats per region, to give 73 constituencies and 72 list seats. This would provide a much more proportional result and allow smaller parties and individuals to be represented. Eg in 1999, had this system been adopted, the Socialist Labour Party (who actually polled more votes in Scotland at that election than the Scottish Socialist Party) would have won a list seat in South of Scotland.

Research by the Scottish Parliament has shown that an Open List system, covering the whole of Scotland, where voters could select the candidates of their own choice, provides the fairest system of representation, a system which is truly proportional. The disadvantage of such a system is that the constituency link would be lost, but with the vast majority of people in the country being represented by MPs and Councillors which they did not vote for, not having a hostile constituency representative might be seen as an advatage to many people. This is the case in the Scottish Pariament, where voters have the choice of seven different list MSPs. In a Council where there are 20 seats available, it seems fair that if an individual or party or obtains over 5 % of the vote, then they should win a seat. This would be possible under an open list system, but not in small multi-member constituencies where an artificial and unfair barrier would be errected which would favour the usual suspects and stifle any improvements in local democracy.

STV is a system which could provide fair results with large multi member constituencies but little improvement in small member constituencies. The system would be open to abuse by the big parties and, as proposed by Cubie, is likely to see continued gross injusticies against smaller parties and independents. So you can bet your last bawbee that if Scottish councils have to be dragged into the third millenium and chose a PR system, they will chose the system which is least likely to produce a truly proportional result - STV with three, four or five member constituencies.

MSP Rankings by % vote won in 2003

MSPs without an absolute majority

Ranking	% vote	MSP	Constituency
1	26.96	Jeremey Purves	Tweedale, Ettrick &Lauderdale
2	30.94	Fergus Ewing	Inverness East, Nairn &Lochaber
3	31.10	Dr Jean Turner	Strathkelvin &Bearsden
4	32.07	Mike Pringle	Edinburgh South
5	32.36	Sarah Boyack	Edinburgh Central
6	32.60	Lewis MacDonald	Aberdeen Central
7	32.93	Kate MacLean	Dundee West
8	33.49	Brian Adam	Aberdeen North
9	33.90	Roseanna Cunningham	Perth
10	34.17	Trish Godman	Renfewshire West
11	34.33	Scott Barrie	Dunfermline West
12	35.13	George Lyon	Argyll &Bute
13	35.69	Pauline McNeil	Glasgow Kelvin
14	35.86	Ken McIntosh	Eastwood
15	35.96	Sylvia Jackson	Stirling
16	36.65	Jamie Stone	Caithness, Sutherland &Easter Ross
17	37.06	Gordon Jackson QC	Glasgow Govan
18	37.21	David McLetchie	Edinburgh North &Leith
19	38.07	Nora Radcliffe	Gordon
20	38.24	Alex Fergusson	Galloway &Upper Nithsdale
21	38.51	Malcolm Chisholm	Edinburgh North &Leith
22	38.33	George Reid	Ochil
23	38.92	Allan Wilson	Cunninghame North
24	39.19	Lord Watson of Invergowrie	Glasgow Cathcart
25	39.58	Shona Robison	Dundee East
26	39.92	Des McNulty	Clydebank &Milngavie
27	39.97	Elaine Murray	Dumfries
28	40.08	Margaret Jamieson	Kilmarnock &Loudoun
29	40.56	Andy Kerr	East Kilbride
30	40.68	Duncan McNeill	Greenock &Inverclyde
31	40.72	John Scott	Ayr
32	40.79	Hugh Henry	Paisley South
33	41.22	Euan Robson	Roxburgh &Berwickshire
34	41.38	Christine May	Fife Central
35	41.58	Cathie Craigie	Cumbernauld &Kilsyth
36	41.71	Mary Mulligan	Linlithgow
37	42.17	Jackie Baillie	Dumbarton
38	42.19	Margaret Ewing	Moray
39	43.13	John Farquhar Monro	Ross, Skye &Inverness West
40	43.34	Margaret Smith	Edinburgh West
41	43.44	Johan Lamont	Glasgow Pollok
42	43.51	Susan Deacon	Edinburgh Central
43	43.61	Bristow Muldoon	Livingston
44	43.85	John Home Robertson	East Lothian
45	44.48	Andrew Welsh	Angus
46	44.89	John Swinney	Tayside North
47	45.62	Karen Gillon	Clydesdale
48	45.71	Jim Wallace	Orkney
49	45.75	Bill Butler	Glasgow Anniesland
50	45.83	Janis Hughes	Glasgow Rutherglen
51	45.88	Nicol Stephen	Aberdeen South
52	46.00	Mike Rumbles	Aberdeenshire West &Kincardine
53	46.03	Iain Smith	Fife North East
54	46.14	Tavish Scott	Shetland
55	46.53	Tom McCabe	Hamilton South
56	46.65	Marilyn Livingstone	Kirkcaldy
57	47.03	Alasdair Morrison	Western Isles
58	47.29	Rhona Brankin	Midlothian
59	47.87	Wendy Alexander	Paisley North
60	47.97	Cathy Jamieson	Carrick, Cumnock &Doon Valley
61	49.03	Irene Oldfather	Cunninghame South
62	49.32	Patricia Ferguson	Glasgow Maryhill
63	49.89	Helen Eadie	Dunfermline East

MSPs with an absolute majority

Ranking	% vote	MSP	Constituency
64	51.65	Cathy Peattie	Falkirk East
65	52.86	Margaret Curran	Glasgow Baillieston
66	52.88	Stewart Stevenson	Banff &Buchan
67	52.95	Michael McMahon	Hamilton North &Bellshill
68	54.12	Jack McConnell	Motherwell &Wishaw
69	55.69	Dennis Canavan	Falkirk West
70	56.25	Elaine Smith	Coatbridge &Chryston
71	56.60	Frank McAveety	Glasgow Shettleston
72	56.64	Karen Whitfield	Airdrie &Shotts
73	59.03	Paul Martin	Glasgow Springburn

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