 | 'Mr Blair is reported yesterday to regard some Scottish journalists as 'unreconstructed *******s' - a family paper like this one cannot reprint the term in full.' Peter MacMahon in the Scotsman 9 th December 1996. |  |
| 'Mr Blair is reported yesterday to regard some Scottish journalists as 'unreconstructed *******s' - a family paper like this one cannot reprint the term in full.' Peter MacMahon in the Scotsman 9 th December 1996. | |
The SNP are said to be 'shaken but not stirred' by our agent's appropriation of this Top Secret report.
(before a similar copy was allegedly stolen from a vehicle on 13 th November)
The Scottish Labour Party wish to conduct research to explore the impact of recent events upon voters' opinions and voting intentions.
During recent months there have been several key developments including the decision by New Labour to conduct a referendum as the first step to a Scottish Parliament, rather than proceed directly with the setting up of this once elected. Also of interest is the effect of the controversial 'Demon Eyes' advertising, campaign run by the Conservatives featuring Tony Blair. These are some of the key events recently which need to be examined in order to understand the impact they are having on voters' opinions.
Two types of research were conducted on behalf of the Party; questions were placed on the Omnibus survey conducted by System Three each month, and a set of focus groups was commissioned. The findings from the Omnibus survey have been reported under separate cover. This report provides the findings from the qualitative research.
Respondents were recruited according to previous voting behaviour (either Labour or SNP) and were 'floating' or less than fully committed to voting, for Labour or SNP if a General Election was to be called tomorrow. In Inverness recruitment included those who had voted Liberal Democrat at the last general election, but are now uncertain as to which party they intend to vote for.
Those who previously supported the Liberal Democrat MP in Inverness are of the opinion that all three parties are converging on the middle ground. Some female floating voters in Inverness came to the eventual conclusion that they may be better off voting for 'the devil you know....' rather than voting for the untried New Labour with the inexperienced new leader.
It's the same person that makes the script for the whole lot of them.
(Females, Lanarkshire)
Those who voted Labour in the past would like to see policies with regard to employment, health and social security which provided greater hope for the future. Concerns about future security are evident. A sense of powerlessness pervades the attitudes held by those who have difficulty finding employment.
Respondents are conscious of a two-tier system evolving which results in employment, healthcare and adequate pensions for those in society with skills which are in demand, whilst others are left with state systems of welfare provision which are perceived to be woefully inadequate. For many of these voters the feelings exist that New Labour is leaving them behind as it courts more successful new friends.
I don't think he's (Tony Blair) a working man's man and his views are, as I say, too far gone now from - I know it's New Labour - the Labour constitution as it was and as we knew it. I just think it's entirely different. They're needing a whole new party now, that means what Labour used to mean.
(Females, Lanarkshire)
Voters who are employed in sectors such as education and health have witnessed so much change under the Conservatives that they are reluctant to experience more, but they are concerned about the effects of some of the changes which have taken place. Great concern is expressed about the amount of time and money spent on bureaucracy instead of service delivery.
New Labour is not associated with radical policies to improve the well-being of the disadvantaged in society. The Party is viewed as moving away from this type of voter and moving towards the middle class voter and those who might once have described themselves as working class but are now aspiring to be perceived as middle class.
For some of these floating voters there are obvious difficulties in reconciling their own personal aspirations and changing value systems with the fact that the Party is changing. Others who would appear to be similar in terms of occupation, house and car ownership and other visible signs of income have retained their old values and want to live in a country where the poorer are not ignored. This split personality of the Old Labour and New Labour voter is perceived to be showing up in the Party.
As a result of the apparent lack of differentiation between the policies of the main parties, greater attention has been focused upon the leaders. In an effort to discern which to vote for, the floating voter is placing emphasis on more personal values such as leadership style, trust, strength, and decisiveness. It would be folly to suggest that appearance and media personality do not all play a strong influential role.
I think John Smith was a different breed. I would quite happily have voted for him.
Aye they had it made there and it was just unfortunate and the Tories win and that because I don't think Tony Blair is as popular or genuine. I wouldn't trust him as far as I can throw him.
I don't like him at all. That smile of his.
(Females, Lanarkshire)
The lack of appeal is attributed by some to Tony's easy smile which arouses suspicion in the dour Scots. At worst this tends to be described as 'smarmy'. The Blairs are perceived to be emulating the Clintons and this is also criticised.
The middle class image presented by Tony Blair reduces any sense of identification experienced by Old Labour voters. Indeed Blair's leadership is perceived to be the driving force behind the move to the right. His personal choice of school for his son has further strengthened not only the middle class image, but also the sense of distance between this leader and the Old Labour voter.
I think he's a bit Toryish. He's a Tory in disguise.
He reminds me of that Bill Clinton.
Yes, false.
Too nice
That's why he's looking through someone else's eye's.
It was like devil's eyes.
(Females, Lanarkshire)
Some view Tony Blair as a strong leader as a direct result of the changes he has brought about in the Party. However this view has been seriously damaged by the recent decisions concerning devolution which have created the impression of indecisiveness.
There has always been some degree of concern about how much you could trust the promises which are made by politicians who want to be elected. There would appear to be signs that the Tory ad campaign has further eroded the sense that you could trust Tony Blair. That this should have coincided with the decisions about a referendum in Scotland has been unfortunate, to put it mildly.
John Major is viewed as lacking in character by some; others think he is 'too nice' to be an effective leader. The lack of personality means a lack of appeal, but this also means that fewer people have strong positive or negative feelings towards him.
And as for John Major, I think he's a wimp ....
I feel with John Major, he 's too nice a person.... He's not got the same push.
(Females, Lanarkshire)
I quite admire John Major, although I would never vote Tory. He's got his own opinions, he's very strong.
He seems a nice guy.
I actually have quite a lot of respect for him, the way he stands up and puts across his point and he'll not let anyone hold him back.
Has he sacked anyone?
(Males, Inverness)
Although other leaders may not have strong Scottish connections, this would appear to be of less relevance to those voters. John Major has no strong Scottish connections. However, since the main aim for many Scots would be to remove the Tories from power, there is no desire on the part of the electorate to establish a relationship with Major. Alex Salmond is the only leader with obvious Scottish connections, and it is accepted without question that he understands the Scottish psyche.
I think that was a vote catching trick and it never worked.
They tell you one thing then go behind....
It'll not happen.... not in my lifetime.
(Females, Lanarkshire)
Depending on how many votes he has in England and they rely on the Labour MPs in Scotland to get a majority. If it gets enough votes down South to hold the Party together, without having to come to Scotland for the vote of Labour MPs, then we will get devolution.
(Males, Dumfries)
The apparent indecision has damaged the image of the Party as a whole and the image of Tony Blair as a leader in Scotland. There is a danger that Tony Blair, who is already viewed as being more like a Conservative in his manner and dress, becomes identified with the same lack of concern for Scotland which has been associated with the Tories in the past.
The big U-turn that he did three weeks ago. His devolution policy for Scotland. I can't remember exactly what happened but he'd come out and he said this is what we're going to do. I can't remember exactly what it was. About the Scottish referendum. There's going to be two votes and one is for devolution and one was for the vote for the party and he thought this was a great thing and then the next day just about it was all forget that and it was all made public in the news and the next day forget it, we didn't mean that, and that made them look stupid.
I think the majority, some of them want to vote SNP and don't. Vote Labour, only to keep the Tories out.
(Females, Lanarkshire)
Rather than being viewed as evidence of strong leadership, recent events are perceived to support the view held by some that the leadership style is too autocratic. This has affected the view of the role played by George Robertson. To some George Robertson is viewed as someone who is required to comply with instructions from above.
I know very little about SNP, it's just an idealistic dream have that the Scots are no better or worse than anyone else....But if the nation are there, the degree of pride that Scotland would get individually every man on the street would think he had something if they got the country back.
(Males, Dumfries)
Due to the feelings towards the Tory treatment of Scotland during the last 17 years - and perhaps the peculiar nature of the Scot - it is important to reassure these voters that New Labour will not continue this treatment. This need for reassurance of a commitment to Scotland is of greater importance now due to the perceived lack of differentiation between New Labour and the Conservatives.
Well it just gives the impression that they don't really care. They're not really interested. That's right. That'll do. It's only Scotland.
It doesn't seem they will be doing much different.
The Labour Party have got to be more careful, because a lot of their strength is in Scotland.
(Males, Inverness)
Commitment to Scotland must be demonstrated in some way which has the same symbolic power as devolution had, if this situation is to be redressed. This symbolic act needs to be of sufficient scale to be used over a period of time between now and the election to allay the underlying fears about New Labour. At present the emotive desire to vote for independence is showing signs of increasing as a way of communicating the sense of despair felt by many of the Old Labour voters.
My husband in previous years, he's always said I'm going to vote for SNP and I was always the type like that - 'No it's a wasted vote' - because if you vote for them it could be a vote that's going to Labour and that could be the 100 votes or whatever could be the difference and he used to go mad.... He used to get me dead angry that he was wasting his vote on SNP and this year he says to me, the next vote I'm going SNP and I'm saying well am I going with him now at this stage?
(Females, Lanarkshire)
Some of those who have previously voted Liberal Democrat also find some appeal in demonstrating the need to consider Scotland more by a symbolic act of support for SNP.
In some ways it's maybe good to have an SNP block from the point of view that Scotland would have a bigger voice maybe in London and places like that.
Most people are either Tory or undecided. There must be more people want the Tories out more than in. The anti- Tory vote has divided them.
(Males, Inverness)
The Tories have made a very good job on Tony Blair, but since then that highlighted something about his untrustworthiness. He seems to promise everything just to get support. And that's what we are saying, there's not much difference between the parties. They're all promising.
It cast a shadow of doubt over the Labour Party. Just he's not the man everyone thought he was.
(Males, Inverness)
This campaign has inadvertently thrown attention on to the emphasis placed upon image by New Labour. The whole issue of a 'New' improved product which has been carefully 'packaged' to meet the desires of its 'customers' causes some to question what they are buying.
Feelings exist that the product and the packaging have changed beyond recognition, and some are concerned that this change is simply designed to win the election. While this would not be faulted as an intermediate objective, the voter wants to believe that there is a commitment to longer term aims which will improve the prospects for Scotland, its people - and themselves in particular.
Although some voters express disquiet at the tactics employed by the Tory ad campaign, most acknowledge that it has got people talking about it. By exaggerating, concerns which exist among floating voters, the campaign increases the credibility of the concerns which existed, and arouses ones which were latent.
New Labour, New Danger. New Danger - is that what it was?
(Males, Lanarkshire)
With all communications there is a danger that people fail to attribute what they have heard to its original source. For example, in the male group in Lanarkshire the spontaneous response to completion of the phrase 'New Labour,....' was the rejoinder 'New Taxes'.
'New Labour, New Britain' achieved some recognition but most of the variants on this theme were not known. The line 'New Labour, New Opportunities' struck a positive chord with some respondents.
New Labour needs to decide how to combat the impact of this campaign. One route may be to replace this imagery with other strongly positive images; the other route paradoxically may be to explore the route of associating the negative images used with other more positive images, thereby reducing the negative associations.
The communications strategy must be reviewed to determine whether the current approach is achieving its objectives. At present it would appear that there is low awareness of the New Labour campaign in Scotland.
They've got enough ammunition to sink the Tories - Corruption, greed, sleaze, to get the Tories no votes at all, but they're not using it. I mean they're not just hitting people with it. Tell me about it.
(Males, Dumfries)
Based upon this research and previous qualitative studies we would recommend an approach which evokes a strong visual image to convey a very simple but powerful message which arouses the attention of the vast majority of voters who 'switch off' when politics come on.
Our conclusions and recommendations from this research are discussed below with regard to each of these aspects.
The effect of this attention which had been strongly influenced by the Tory advertising campaign has been to reduce the appeal of Blair to Scottish floating voters. His appeal was never perceived to be as strong in Scotland as it was assumed to be in the South. This may have made him a 'soft' target in Scotland.
Scottish floating voters do not feel that Tony Blair is a leader they can strongly identify with. Although there are other Scots in the Shadow Cabinet, there is only one leader. John Prescott has more appeal for Old Labour voters and one respondent pondered what Gordon Brown might have been like as a leader. Prescott could be used to allay the fears of those traditionalists who feel that Tony Blair has moved the party too far, too fast for them.
Lack of conviction is moving some voters towards SNP, others to continue reluctantly with the existing 'experienced' government; and some to feel that there is no party for their vote. There is a need to increase the perceived risk of a Tory government for those attracted to SNP. Those in favour of the status quo need to be convinced that this is not a safe option. Those who are disenfranchised need to be reassured convincingly that New Labour does care about their future, and will take steps which will improve their prospects.
The New Labour campaign has been effectively undermined. As a result of the more dramatic and controversial campaign run by the Conservatives, the New Labour campaign is failing to gain attention and interest.
Due to low levels of interest that many floating voters have in politics, we would suggest that communications need to be:
System Three, 16 October 1996
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