New Labour report.
| 'There is a danger that Tony Blair, who is already viewed as being more like a Conservative in his manner and dress, becomes identified with the same lack of concern for Scotland which has been associated with the Tories in the past.' New Labour report. | |
The fact that the Scottish Labour Party was asking these questions at all shows the sensitivity of the issues involved, but the answers received during sessions with panels of floating voters across the country must have proved horrifying reading when they were produced six weeks ago.
The worst suspicions will have been confirmed by the study, commissioned from recognised experts System Three in which the respondents branded Mr Blair false and untrustworthy, his leadership right wing and domineering, his concerns no longer those of the disadvantaged in society.
The research showed that while Labour continued to ride high in that firm's monthly poll for The Herald, there were worrying underlying trends which softened support for Labour and on which opponents were beginning to capitalise, with Tory advertising hitting the mark.
Even more ominously, the findings confirmed the claims of political opponents, particularly Labour's number one enemy in Scotland the SNP, that regaining support in England may carry costs here.
Uncommitted voters across the country were asked about party leadership, the summer's devolution controversy, and the impact of political advertising. On all three issues alarm bells sounded for the party hierarchy.
The report found that on the critical importance of the leader:
* There was little difference between New Labour and the Tories, throwing emphasis on leaders' personalities and the need for strong leadership which excludes traditional supporters.
* Tony Blair, middle class in appearance and accent, is taking his party to the Right. Some older voters would prefer a traditional Northern voice such as John Prescott, and the loss of John Smith is keenly felt.
* Scottish party leader George Robertson is seen as acting on London orders.
* The disadvantaged have lost Labour as a voice.
The summer's devolution debacle may not have hit the party's poll rating, but the focus groups had clear, negative views on it: Labour were seen to have backtracked, creating doubts that they would deliver, an indecisive image and an image of being untrustworthy and taking Scotland for granted -- increasing the appeal of the SNP.
On the propaganda war between parties, System Three found: Limited impact of New Labour slogans contrasted with strong awareness of Tory advertising, to the point where "New Labour" was associated with "New Taxes."
The findings came from meetings with five focus groups in the last week of September - two in Lanarkshire, two in Inverness and one in Dumfries. This gave a cross-Scotland spread and the latter two locations involve marginal seats.
Groups involved around ten, allowing for two or three to drop out, and involved uncertain Labour and uncommitted opposing voters -- mainly SNP but including Liberal Democrats in Inverness. They are then encouraged to discuss their feelings and motivations at some length.
This kind of sounding board has been a key plank of campaign planning for Labour in England, but the Scottish results were more hostile than might have been expected. Not only were they bad news in terms of fighting off the SNP challenge, they will b e seen as a vindication by the party's old Left.
The report states that past Labour voters were "conscious of a two-tier system evolving which results in employment, health care and adequate pensions for those in society with skills which are in demand, whilst others are left with state systems of welf are provisions which are perceived to be woefully inadequate.
"For many of these voters the feelings exist that New Labour is leaving them behind as it courts more successful new friends."
Remarking on "a resurgence of nostalgic references to John Smith," the report remarks on Tony Blair's relative lack of appeal in Scotland by comparison with the south. As one Lanarkshire women noted: "I wouldn't trust him as far as I can throw him -- I don't like him at all, that smile of his."
False, too nice and a bit like Bill Clinton were other remarks about Mr Blair, whereas the Prime Minister raised less powerful reactions -- admired as a nice guy, strong only on his opinions, but otherwise a wimp.
"Tony Blair is perceived to be English, and his identity or image is associated with that of a Southerner," says the report. Although respondents knew about his Edinburgh educations, this did not help. "By contrast, John Prescott has more appeal for trad itional Labour voters due to his Northern heritage and working class roots."
The report argues on devolution : "There has been serious damage to the trust that voters have in New Labour's promises with regard to Scotland ... The apparent indecision has damaged the issue of the party as a whole and the image of Tony Blair as a lea der in Scotland.
"There is a danger that Tony Blair, who is already viewed as being more like a Conservative in his manner and dress, becomes identified with the same lack of concern for Scotland which has been associated with the Tories in the past.
"Rather than being viewed as evidence of strong leadership, recent events are perceived to support the view held by some that the leadership style is too autocratic. This has affected the view of the role played by George Robertson to some degree. Robert son is viewed as someone who is required to comply with instructions from above."
The report says there is evidence that this has generalised into scepticism surrounding other areas of policy. "This may prove to be more damaging over time than is immediately apparent."
Surveys often highlight the fact that key issues such as jobs, health and housing are more important than devolution, but the survey finds that the latter is vital, whether as emblematic of "the soul of the nation," or "more prosaically as a symbol of co mmitment."
For Labour there is a dangerous linkage here between Old Labour and nationalism. "The emotive desire to vote for independence is showing signs of increasing as a way of communicating the sense of despair felt by many of the Old Labour voters," says the r eport, noting that there are similar protest vote sentiments among former Liberal Democrat voters.
The Tory "demon eyes" campaign had a strong impact partly because of residual distrust that Scots already felt. "That highlighted something about his untrustworthiness. He seems to promise everything just to get support," said an Inverness man.
New Labour slogans, in contrast, have flopped, with one respondent thinking it linked with "New Taxes." "New Opportunities" was seen as striking a positive chord, highlighting a Labour need for simpler, more up-beat imagery.
As a Dumfries man put it: "They've got enough ammunition to sink the Tories. Corruption, greed, sleaze, to get the Tories no votes at all, but they're not using it. I mean they're not just hitting people with it."
The leak of the report is appalling news for Labour in Scotland. The timing as Mr Blair arrives is disastrous. But the message may be worse still, representing a lost opportunity with only months to go until the General Election. - Dec 5
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