Lord Hattersly, ex-Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, 28 th October 1998.
| 'He (Tony Blair) is beyond doubt the most talented politician in Britain - no-one else could have destroyed the Conservative Party and the Labour Party simultaneously.' Lord Hattersly, ex-Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, 28 th October 1998. | |
The Liberal Democrat peer has admitted privately there is only a 50-50 chance of future General Elections being fought under the proportional system he has devised at Tony Blair's request.
Ministers made clear that, although possible, the referendum on reform promised in Labour's manifesto is unlikely to be held in the lifetime of this Parliament.
Campaigners for proportional representation led by Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown hailed Lord Jenkins's report as a powerful case for introducing a fairer system for electing MPs.
Mr Blair praised Lord Jenkins for his work and gave the recommendations a cautious welcome, pointing out in particular that change would help address the "complete absence of Conservative representation in Scotland".
He pointed out that his scheme, based on a mix of constituency-based and list MPs, amounts to a "modification" of the existing system rather than the "full-blown" form of PR used in some countries.
Lord Jenkins has recommended a two-vote mixed system called Alternative Vote Top-up. Electors would have two votes: one for a constituency MP and one for a top-up MP.
With the Cabinet's backing after a 20 minute discussion, Mr Blair called for a period of national deliberation, but refused to set a timetable.
The commission recommendation on electoral reform cutting the number of constituency MPs at Westminster sounded the death knell for plans to reduce the number of members at Holyrood, Opposition parties in Scotland claimed.
The Lib Dems and SNP responded enthusiastically to the plans for proportional representation at Westminster, Scottish devolution Minister Henry Mc-Leish gave a cautious welcome, and only Scottish Tory chairman Raymond Robertson condemned proposals to meddle with the existing "first past the post" system.
With senior Ministers led by Home Secretary Jack Straw and deputy Prime Minister John Prescott adamantly opposed to change, Mr Blair has secured an agreement that no Minister will take the role of "standard bearer" either for or against change.
However, Mr Straw, who was charged with acting as the Government's spokesman on PR in interviews yesterday, made clear that obstacles to change remain and that a new voting system may have to wait until the future shape of the House of Lords is decided.
Lord Jenkins himself admits in his 90-page report that there is little evidence of public demand for reforming "first past the post" system. "There is no surging popular agitation for change," he said.
Mr Blair said his Government's constitutional reform programme as a whole, including changes to the House of Lords and new election systems in Scotland, Wales and the European Parliament, must be considered before a decision is made.
The Jenkins report says a new system is at least eight years away.The former Cabinet Minister let it be known yesterday: "There is a chance that the election after next will be fought on this system. By real chance, I mean 50-50," he told friends.
Conservative leader William Hague led the critics of the report, branding its proposals as a "dog's breakfast", while Labour traditionalists led by veteran MP Dennis Skinner called it a "tinpot report for which you need two bottles of claret to digest".
The Government showed a willingness to encourage discussion by announcing a Commons debate for next Thursday, although there will not be a vote or Government motion on the proposals.
In the reform, most MPs, 80% to 85%, would continue to be elected on a constituency basis, but the number of constituencies would be reduced to about 550. Voters would be asked to number the candidates in order of preference.
Anyone getting 50% of the vote would automatically be elected. But where no one reached the halfway mark, the least popular candidates would be gradually eliminated and second preference votes re-distributed until a winner emerged.
The remaining 15-20% of MPs would be elected on a top-up basis to make sure that the proportion of votes cast for parties is more accurately translated into seats at Westminster.
If this system had been in place at the last election, Labour's massive Commons majority of 179 would have been cut to 77. The number of Labour MPs would have been reduced from 419 to 368, the Tories would have gained three seats making 168, while Liberal Democrat ranks would have swelled from 46 to 89.
In Scotland, under AV+ it would have meant out of a total of 75 seats, Labour would have 48, the SNP would have 12, with the Liberal Democrats on nine and the Tories on six. - Oct 30.
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