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'Labour seats are in danger of falling like dominos across Scotland, leaving large tracts of the country under an SNP monopoly, according to a regional analysis of the latest monthly System Three opinion poll for The Herald. A breakdown of party support in the eight electoral regions, reflecting the new voting system for next May's Scottish Parliament elections, suggests sweeping gains for the SNP and the end of Labour's domination.' Murray Ritchie in the Herald, 7 th July 1998. |
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In the Scottish General election of May 1999, there will be two battlegrounds. The first is the constituency vote, and the second the regional vote where additional seats will be awarded in an attempt to make the result slightly more representative of the votes cast.
The table below lists the SNP's target constituencies in order of winnability based on the general election result of May 1997. The SNP has a formidable task before it in order to form the first Scottish government or become the majority party due to the massive lead which Labour obtained in May 1997. However, Labour itself proved in the General election that it is possible to win seats with enormous swings from an unpopular government .
Indeed, the July System 3 poll for the Herald puts the swing from Labour to the SNP at 15.7 %. Assuming a uniform swing, this would allow the SNP to win the first 28 seats on the list, up to and including Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, giving them a total of 34 constituency seats.
However, a detailed region-by-region analysis, by Dr Malcolm Dickson of Strathclyde University demonstrates that the swing is far from uniform. In the South of Scotland region it is only 8.4%, while in North East Scotland it is 18.5 %, in the Lothians 20.3 % and in Glasgow 20.4 %. On this basis, while Labour would hold Dumfries (target 42), Ayr (44) and East Lothian (48) it would lose previously rock solid seats such as Hamilton North & Bellshill (60), and Hamilton South (63).
This regional analysis suggest that the SNP would end up with 48 constituencies compared to 21 for Labour and 4 for the Liberal Democrats. Taking account of the 56 additional seats, this would give a result of:
Scottish National Party: 63 seats (48 constituencies + 15 regional seats)
Labour 42 seats (21 constituencies + 21 regional seats)
Lib Dem 12 seats (4 constituencies + 8 regional seats)
Conservatives 8 seats (0 constituencies + 8 regional seats)
| Rank | Constituency | 1 st place | Majority | SNP place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber |  | 4.90 | SNP 2 nd |
| 2 | Glasgow Govan | | 9.04 | SNP 2 nd |
| Rank | Constituency | 1 st place | Majority | SNP place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ochil | | 10.63 | SNP 2 nd |
| 4 | Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross |  | 12.59 | SNP 3 rd |
| 5 | Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale | | 14.12 | SNP 4 th |
| 6 | Kilmarnock & Loudoun | | 15.30 | SNP 2 nd |
| 7 | Argyll & Bute | | 17.03 | SNP 2 nd |
| 8 | Ross, Skye & Inverness West | | 19.15 | SNP 3 rd |
| Rank | Constituency | 1 st place | Majority | SNP place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Renfrewshire West | | 20.05 | SNP 2 nd |
| 10 | Western Isles | | 22.20 | SNP 2 nd |
| 11 | Gordon | | 22.64 | SNP 3 rd |
| 12 | Dundee East | | 24.58 | SNP 2 nd |
| 13 | Aberdeen South | | 25.51 | SNP 4 th |
| 14 | Aberdeen North | | 26.06 | SNP 2nd |
| 15 | Dumbarton | | 26.38 | SNP 2 nd |
| 16 | Eastwood | | 26.68 | SNP 3 rd |
| 17 | Edinburgh North & Leith | | 26.81 | SNP 2 nd |
| 18 | Linlithgow | | 27.33 | SNP 2 nd |
| 19 | Livingston | | 27.43 | SNP 2 nd |
| 20 | Midlothian | | 28.00 | SNP 2 nd |
| 21 | Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine | | 28.02 | SNP 3 rd |
| 22 | Glasgow Kelvin | | 29.60 | SNP 2 nd |
| 23 | Edinburgh Pentlands | | 30.00 | SNP 3 rd |
| Rank | Constituency | 1 st place | Majority | SNP place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clydesdale | | 30.41 | SNP 2nd |
| 25 | Dundee West | | 30.56 | SNP 2 nd |
| 26 | Kirkcaldy | | 30.63 | SNP 2 nd |
| 27 | Cumbernauld & Kilsyth | | 30.89 | SNP 2 nd |
| 28 | Falkirk East | | 32.18 | SNP 2 nd |
| 29 | Edinburgh Central | | 31.29 | SNP 3 rd |
| 30 | Cunninghame North | | 31.86 | SNP 3 rd |
| 31 | Aberdeen Central | | 33.63 | SNP 3 rd |
| 32 | Fife Central | | 33.64 | SNP 2 nd |
| 33 | Edinburgh South | | 33.90 | SNP 4 th |
| 34 | Dunfermline West | | 33.91 | SNP 2 nd |
| 35 | Clydebank & Milngavie | | 34.08 | SNP 2 nd |
| 36 | Stirling | | 34.06 | SNP 3 rd |
| 37 | Paisley South | | 34.13 | SNP 2 nd |
| 38 | Edinburgh West | | 34.36 | SNP 4 th |
| 39 | Edinburgh East & Musselburgh | | 34.50 | SNP 2 nd |
| 40 | Motherwell & Wishaw | | 34.93 | SNP 2 nd |
| 41 | Roxburgh & Berwickshire | | 35.17 | SNP 4 th |
| 42 | Dumfries | | 35.44 | SNP 3 rd |
| 43 | East Kilbride | | 35.63 | SNP 2 nd |
| 44 | Ayr | | 35.80 | SNP 3 rd |
| 45 | Glasgow Cathcart | | 35.90 | SNP 2nd |
| 46 | Falkirk West | | 35.92 | SNP 2 nd |
| 47 | Strathkelvin & Bearsden | | 36.54 | SNP 3 rd |
| 48 | East Lothian | | 36.97 | SNP 3 rd |
| 49 | Airdrie & Shotts | | 37.42 | SNP 2 nd |
| 50 | Paisley North | | 37.54 | SNP 2 nd |
| 51 | Greenock & Inverclyde | | 37.59 | SNP 2 nd |
| 52, 53 | Orkney & Shetland (Two seats) | | 39.29 | SNP 3 rd |
| Rank | Constituency | 1 st place | Majority | SNP place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | Fife North East | | 40.36 | SNP 3 rd |
| 55 | Cunninghame South | | 41.95 | SNP 2 nd |
| 56 | Glasgow Pollok | | 42.04 | SNP 2 nd |
| 57 | Glasgow Rutherglen | | 42.25 | SNP 2 nd |
| 58 | Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley | | 43.13 | SNP 3 rd |
| 59 | Glasgow Anniesland | | 44.73 | SNP 2 nd |
| 60 | Hamilton North & Bellshill | | 44.94 | SNP 2 nd |
| 61 | Glasgow Ballieston | | 46.59 | SNP 2 nd |
| 62 | Glasgow Maryhill | | 47.99 | SNP 2 nd |
| 63 | Hamilton South | | 47.98 | SNP 2 nd |
| Rank | Constituency | 1 st place | Majority | SNP place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | Dunfermline East | | 51.26 | SNP 2 nd |
| 65 | Coatbridge & Chryston | | 51.30 | SNP 2nd |
| 66 | Glasgow Springburn | | 54.87 | SNP 2 nd |
| 67 | Glasgow Shettleston | | 59.18 | SNP 2 nd |
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