Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'It is no longer the case that Labour could put a red jacket on a monkey and get it easily elected.' Jim Sillars in the Evening News, 5 th July 2006.

Paisley South (West of Scotland Region)

Candidates

	Tom Begg (Also number 5 on West of Scotland list)
	Conservative & Unionist
	Tom Begg BSc is currently the Holyrood Candidate for Paisley South. Prior to that he represented the Tories three times for Westminster. He has been a council candidate a number of times and twice a Local Council Election Agent winning both seats. Tom started and ran his own business for over ten years. He enjoys a challenge and loves nothing more than working under stress to tight time scales and prides himself on keeping a cool head under pressure. An excellent motivator at work and in the voluntary sector, with a firm, fair and friendly style Tom always commands respect. Though he jokingly refers to his old age Tom is still wonderfully active and is a keen sportsman as well as a terrific photographer. The brother of one of his forefathers helped to split the church in The Disruption of 1843 but although Tom himself is religiously active, he has no such ambitions himself. Though not a big reader Tom does love Private Eye. Recent electoral experience. 1992 Westminster election, Dumbarton, 13,126 votes (29.74 %) 1987 Westminster election, Glasgow Garscadden, 3,660 votes (10.69 %)
	Hugh Henry MSP (Not standing on West of Scotland list)
	Labour
	Hugh Henry was born in Glasgow on the 12 th February 1952, and educated at St Mirin's Academy in Paisley, Glasgow University where he graduated with a B.Acc, and Jordanhill College of Education in Glasgow. From 1973 to 1975 he worked as an accountant with IBM UK Ltd before becoming a Teacher in Strathclyde Regional from 1976 to 1979. From 1979 until 1984 he was a Welfare Rights Officer and then from 1984-1993 a Senior Welfare Rights Officer in the Social Work Department of Strathclyde Regional Council. From 1993 to 1996 he was a Community Care Manager with Community Enterprise in Strathclyde. Hugh Henry was in local government from 1984 to 1999, and leader of West Renfrewshire Council for four years, when he was elected to the Scottish Parliament as MSP for Paisley South. He is married with two daughters and one son and is a member of the Transport and General Workers Union. Ministerial positions November 2002 - November 2006 - Deputy Minister for Justice November 2006 - Minister for Education & Young People Council positions 1995 - 1999 - Leader of West Renfrewshire Council Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Paisley South, 10,190 votes (40.79 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Paisley South, 13,899 votes (45.34 %) (elected) 1995 Refrewshire Council election, ward 38, 1,040 votes (66.45 %) (elected) 1995 Refrew District Council election, Park Mains, 793 votes (60.08 %) (elected) 1992 Refrew District Council election, (elected) 1988 Refrew District Council election, (elected) 1984 Refrew District Council election, (elected)
	Cllr Eileen McCartin JP (Also number 3 on West of Scotland Regional list)
	Liberal Democrat
	Eileen McCartin is leader of the Lib Dem group on Renfewshire Council. She has contested Paisley constituencies at seven parliamentary elections, doing best at her first attempt in 1983 when she came second for the SDP in Paisley North with 23.7 % of the vote. She is a member of the appeals board, the community and family care policy board, the leadership board and the Paisley South West local grant board. Recent electoral experience 2005 Westminster Parliament election, Paisley & Renfewshire South, 6,672 votes (17.62 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Paisley South, 3,517 votes (14.08 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Second on Lib Dem West of Scotland list, 31,580 votes (12.28 %) 2003 Renfrewshire Council election, Stanley, 1,208 votes (61.16 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Second on Lib Dem West of Scotland list, 34,095 votes (10.98 %) 1999 Renfrewshire Council election, Stanley, 1,374 votes (58.52 %) (elected) 1997 Westminster Parliament by-election, Paisley South, 2,582 votes (11.08 %) 1997 Westminster Parliament election, Paisley South, 3,500 votes (9.37 %) 1995 Renfrewshire Council election, Ward 8, 1,015 votes (70.24 %) (elected) 1992 Westminster Parliament election, Paisley North, 2,779 votes (8.16 %) As a Social Democratic Party candidate 1987 Westminster Parliament election, Paisley North, 5,741 votes (15.78 %) 1983 Westminster Parliament election, Paisley North, 8,195 votes (23.67 %)
	Fiona McLeod (Also number 6 on West of Scotland Regional list)
	Scottish National Party
	Fiona McLeod was born in 1957 in Glasgow and was educated at Bearsden Academy, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Strathclyde Universities wxhere she graduate with an MA Hons in Medieval History, Modern History and a Postgraduate Diploma in Librarianship. From 1983 until 1987 she worked as a School Librarian at Balfron High School and then from 1983 until 1987 as a College Librarian at Glasgow North College of Nursing, and from 1995 until 1998 at Huntershill Marie Curie Library Centre. She joined the SNP in 1874 and was the seventh West of Scotland MSP from 1999 until 2003. In the 199 parliament she was Shadow Deputy Environment Minister and a member of many Cross Party Groups including Young People, SPIKe (Information, Knowledge and Enlightenment), Women's Issues and SPREG (Renewable Energy). Before entering Parliament in 1999 she took a keen interest in community politics, particularly on issues relating to children and young people. She was Convener of Westerton Pre-School and Playgroup and Bearsden West Community Council. She was a founding member and volunteer worker in a Drop-In Café for teenagers and a Junior Youth Club. Fiona is married with one son and lives in Westerton, near Bearsden. Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Strathkelvin & Bearsden, 4,846 votes (13.71 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Seventh on West of Scotland list, 50,387 votes (19.59 %) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Strathkelvin & Bearsden, 9,384 votes (22.14 %) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Fourth on SNP West of Scotland list, 80,417 votes (25.91 %) (elected)

Constituency profile

Assessment:

This assessment is based on the 2003 election results

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 11 (28 in 2003)
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 4.91 % from Labour to Scottish National Party

Rank on Liberal Democrat hit list: 18 (28 in 2003)
Swing required for Liberal Democrat gain: 13.36 % from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Rank on Conservative hit list: 47 (49 in 2003)
Swing required for Conservative gain: 16.85 % from Labour to Conservative

Correlation to the new Westminster constituencies

The electorate of 53,146 was split between the new Westminster constituencies of:
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 52,954 (99.6 %)
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 192 (0.4 % %)

Local Government wards in the constituency

Previous results

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Electorate 49,818. Turnout 24,984 50.15 % (- 7.00 %)
Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	Hugh Henry MSP	10,190	40.79 %	- 4.55 %
	Scottish National Party	Cllr Bill Martin	7,737	30.97 %	+ 0.29 %
	Liberal Democrat	Cllr Eileen McCartin	3,517	14.08 %	+ 4.38 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Mark Jones	1,775	7.10 %	- 0.94 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	Frances Curran	1,765	7.06 %	(+ 7.06 %)
	Labour hold	Labour majority	2,453	9.82 %	- 4.84 %

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Electorate 49,818. Turnout 24,958 50.10 % 171 rejected ballot papers
Logo	Party	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	9,319	37.34 %	- 6.49 %
	Scottish National Party	6,796	27.23 %	- 2.31 %
	Liberal Democrats	2,263	9.07 %	- 0.88 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	1,903	7.62 %	+ 5.27 %
	Conservative & Unionist	1,898	7.60 %	- 0.35 %
	Scottish Green Party	1,128	4.52 %	+ 2.28 %
	Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party	788	3.16 %	(+ 3.16 %)
	Pro-Life Party	394	1.58 %	+ 0.60 %
	Socialist Labour Party	234	0.94 %	- 0.61 %
	Scottish Unionist Party	103	0.41 %	- 0.09 %
	UK Independence Party	87	0.35 %	(+ 0.35 %)
	Scottish Peoples Alliance	45	0.18 %	(+ 0.18 %)
	Labour majority	2,523	10.11 %	- 4.18 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	%
	Labour	Cllr Hugh Henry	13,899	45.34 %	- 12.17 %
	Scottish National Party	Cllr Bill Martin	9,404	30.68 %	+ 7.30 %
	Liberal Democrat	Stuart Callison	2,974	9.70 %	+ 0.33 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Shiela Laidlaw	2,433	7.94 %	- 0.73 %
	Independent	Cllr Paul Mack	1,273	4.15 %	+ 4.15 %
	Socialist Workers Party	Jackie Forrest	673	2.20 %	+ 2.20 %
	Labour win	Labour majority	4,495	14.66 %	- 19.47 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Logo	Party	Votes	%
	Labour	13,418	43.83 %
	Scottish National Party	9,042	29.54 %
	Liberal Democrats	3,045	9.95 %
	Conservative & Unionist	2433	7.95 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	719	2.35 %
	Scottish Green Party	686	2.24 %
	Socialist Labour Party	475	1.55 %
	Pro Life Alliance	301	0.98 %
	Canon Kenyon Wright	235	0.77 %
	Scottish Unionist Party	154	0.50 %
	Independent Labour Keep Scotland's Water Public	68	0.22 %
	Natural Law Party	37	0.12 %
	Labour majority	4,376	14.29 %

6 th November 1997 Westminster By-Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Douglas Alexander	10,346	44.1 (-13.4 %)
	Scottish National Party	Ian Blackford	7,615	32.5 % (+9.1 %)
	Liberal Democrat	Cllr Eileen McCartin	2,582	11.0 % (+1.6 %)
	Conservative & Unionist	Shiela Lawson	1,643	7.0 % (-1.7 %)
	Pro Life Alliance	John Deighan	578*	2.5 %
	Scottish Socialist Alliance	Frances Curran	306*	1.3 % (+0.9 %)
	Scottish Independent Labour, Justified and Ancient	Charles McLauchlan	155*	0.7 %
	Socialist Labour Party	Chris Herriot	153*	0.7 %
	Natural Law Party	Kenneth Blair	57*	0.2 %
	Labour hold	Labour majority	2,731	11.6 % (-22.5 %)

1 st May 1997 Westminster General Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Gordon McMaster MP	21,482	57.51 %
	Scottish National Party	Cllr Bill Martin	8,732	23.38 %
	Liberal Democrat	Cllr Eileen McCartin	3,500	9.37 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Robert Reid	3,237	8.67 %
	Referendum	James Lardner	254	0.68%
	Scottish Socialist Alliance	Sean Clerkin	146	0.39%
	Labour hold	Labour majority	12,750	34.13 %

Links

• Paisley South Tories