Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'It's very difficult to say why somebody should get 130 grand a year for playing croquet.' Stephen Pound, Labour MP for Ealing North commenting on Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott, 30 th May 2006.

Dumbarton (West of Scotland Region)

Candidates

	Jackie Baillie MSP (Not standing on West of Scotland list)
	Labour
	Jackie Baillie was born on the 15 th January 1964 in Hong Kong and was educated at St Anne's School in Windermere and Glasgow University where she graduated with an MSc in Local Economic Development. She worked as an Administrative assistant at Ruchill Unemployed Workers' Centre from 1986 to 1987 then as a Co-ordinator at Gorbals Unemployed Workers' Centre from 1987 to 1990. She then worked as a Resource centre manager at Strathkelvin District Council from 1990 to 1996 and as a Community economic development manager for East Dunbartonshire Council from 1996 until her election as an MSP in 1999. She was Chair of the Scottish Labour Party from 1997 to 1998 and she has been a member Scottish Labour's Executive Committee since 1990. In the parliament she is Convener of the Cross-Party Group for Learning Disability and Co-Convener of the Cross-Party Group on Tackling Debt. She is married and a member of the TGWU and Unison. Ministerial positions May 1999 - October 2000 - Deputy Minister for Social Inclusion, Equality, & the Voluntary Sector October 2000 - November 2001 - Minister for Social Justice Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish parliament election, Dumbarton, 12,154 votes (42.17 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish parliament election, Dumbarton, 15,181 votes (43.75 %) (elected)
	Dr John Black (Also number 1 on West of Scotland list)
	Scottish Jacobite Party
	Dr John Black from Helensburgh is standing for the Scottish Jacobite Party which was formed in July 2005. He is the leader and treasurer of the party. The party had originally intended to contest 70 regional and constituency seats, however everal candidates pulled out leaving Ma Alobaidi, an Iraqui who has lived in Scotland for 20 years, as the only other candidate intending to stand, in Edinburgh Central and the Lothians list. However the returning officer refused to accept a £35,000 bankers' draft for the £500 deposit. Recent electoral experience.
	Graeme McCormick (Also number 7 on West of Scotland list)
	Scottish National Party
	Graeme McCormick was born on the 23 rd May 1954 and educated at Paisley Grammar School and Edinburgh University. He is a qualified solicitor and the founder and senior partner of Conveyancing Direct. He joined the SNP in 1992 and was the Press Officer for Bearsden Branch. He is married with two daughters. Talking about Independence, Graeme said "Our nearest neighbours to the east and west, with similar populations and fewer resources than us, both of whom gained Independence in the Twentieth Century, are now richer than the states (Sweden and the UK) of which they were formerly part. In 1974 I was a student at Edinburgh University when Gordon Brown was University Rector. Then, Norway and Scotland had a similar standard of living. At the 1974 elections, Scotland was within an ace of voting for Independence. Today Norway is internationally recognised as having the highest standard of living in the world. Scotland is 21st. In 1967 my parents took me to Dublin for a holiday. My abiding memory was one of poverty, epitomised by children begging in the street outside the Mansionhouse. Last year the Irish Finance Minister announced that Ireland had overtaken the USA as the third richest country in the world. If you're Irish, you now have on average £120 a week more in your pocket than a Scot. Our nearest neighbours to the east and west, with similar populations and fewer resources than us, both of whom gained Independence in the Twentieth Century, are now richer than the states (Sweden and the UK) of which they were formerly part. There is only one significant thing which separates us from Norway and Ireland: That is Independence. They have it; we haven't! What are we waiting for?" Recent electoral experience 1997 Westminster election, Strathkelvin & Bearsden, 8,111 votes (16.32 %) 1995 Unitary Council election, candidate
	Cllr Alex Mackie (Not standing on West of Scotland list)
	Liberal Democrat
	Alex Mackie won the new Giffnock North ward on East Renfrewshire Council in 1995 but was defeated in 1999. Following the death of the Conserative victor in 2001, he failed to win the ward back in a by-elction but defeated the new Tory Cllr in 2003. He also contested Motherwell & Wishaw in 1997, Renfrewshire West in 2001 and East Kilbride in 2003. Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish Parliament election, East Kilbride, 2,181 votes (6.40 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Sixth on Lib Dem Central Scotland list, 15,494 votes (5.89 %) 2003 East Renfrewshire Council election, Giffnock North, 914 votes (41.89 %) (elected) 2001 Westminster Parliament election, Renfrewshire West, 4,185 votes (12.49) 2001 East Renfrewshire Council by-election, Giffnock North, 836 votes (30.77 %) 1999 East Renfrewshire Council election, Giffnock North, 960 votes (38.10 %) (defeated) 1997 Westminster election, Motherwell & Wishaw, 2,331 votes (6.37 %) 1995 East Renfrewshire Council election, Giffnock North, 697 votes (44.1 %) (elected)
	Brian Pope (Also number 7 on West of Scotland list)
	Conservative & Unionist
	Brian Pope currently works as a civil engineer for an international firm of consulting engineers in Glasgow. In 2001 he was elected to the Council of the Institution of Civil Engineers at Westminster and represented over 10,000 civil engineers in the UK, holding the post until November 2004. Brian actively supports the humanitarian work carried out by engineers in the developing world and is a leading fundraiser for one of the top engineering charities. Brian's other interests include swimming, walking, cycling and reading. Recent electoral experience. 2005 Westminster election, Glasgow North, 2,441 votes (8.74 %)

Constituency profile

Assessment:

This assessment is based on the 2003 election results

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 33 (22 in 2003)
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 11.47 % from Labour to Scottish National Party

Rank on Liberal Democrat hit list: 17 (19 in 2003)
Swing required for Liberal Democrat gain: 13.36 % from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Rank on Conservative hit list: 33 (28 in 2003)
Swing required for Conservative gain: 13.84 % from Labour to Conservative

Correlation to the new Westminster constituencies

The electorate of 56,256 was split between the new Westminster constituencies of:
Dunbartonshire West 36,524 (64.9 %)
Argyll & Bute 19,732 (35.1 %)

Local Government wards in the constituency

Previous results

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Electorate 55,575. Turnout 28,823, 51.86 % (- 10.00 %)
Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	Jackie Baillie MSP	12,154	42.17 %	- 1.58 %
	Scottish National Party	Dr Iain Docherty	5,542	19.23 %	- 10.81 %
	Liberal Democrat	Eric Thompson	4,455	15.46 %	+ 3.83 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Murray Tosh MSP	4,178	14.50 %	- 0.08 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	Les Robertson	2,494	8.65 %	(+ 8.65 %)
	Labour hold	Labour majority	6,612	22.94 %	+ 9.23 %

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Electorate 55,575. Turnout 28,739, 51.71 % 261 rejected ballot papers
Logo	Party	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	9,500	33.06 %	- 6.22 %
	Scottish National Party	5,342	18.59 %	- 8.81 %
	Conservative & Unionist	4,456	15.51 %	+ 0.27 %
	Liberal Democrats	3,488	12.14 %	+ 2.47 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	2,433	8.47 %	+ 6.72 %
	Scottish Green Party	1,562	5.44 %	+ 2.90 %
	Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party	775	2.70 %	(+ 2.70 %)
	Pro-Life Party	362	1.26 %	+ 0.42 %
	Socialist Labour Party	275	0.96 %	- 0.24 %
	UK Independence Party	244	0.85 %	(+ 0.85 %)
	Scottish Unionist Party	194	0.68 %	+ 0.05 %
	Scottish Peoples Alliance	108	0.38 %	(+ 0.38 %)
	Labour majority	4,158	14.47 %	+ 2.60 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	Jackie Baillie	15,181	43.75 %	- 5.86 %
	Scottish National Party	Lloyd Quinan	10,423	30.04 %	+ 6.81 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Donald Reece	5,060	14.58 %	- 3.07 %
	Liberal Democrat	Paul Coleshill	4,035	11.63 %	+ 4.01 %
	Labour win	Labour majority	4,758	13.71 %	- 12.67 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Logo	Party	Votes	%
	Labour	13,663	39.28 %
	Scottish National Party	9,533	27.40 %
	Conservative & Unionist	5,302	15.24 %
	Liberal Democrats	3,364	9.67 %
	Scottish Green Party	883	2.54 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	608	1.75 %
	Socialist Labour Party	416	1.20 %
	Canon Kenyon Wright	341	0.98 %
	Pro Life Alliance	293	0.84 %
	Scottish Unionist Party	218	0.63 %
	Independent Labour Keep Scotland's Water Public	92	0.26 %
	Natural Law Party	75	0.22 %
	Labour majority	4,130	11.87 %

1 st May 1997 Westminster Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	John McFall	20,479	49.61 %
	Scottish National Party	Cllr Bill Mackechnie	9,587	23.23%
	Conservative & Unionist	Peter Ramsey	7,283	17.65 %
	Liberal Democrat	Alan Reid	3,144	7.62 %
	Scottish Socialist Alliance	Les Robertson	283	0.69 %
	Referendum	George Dempster	255	0.62 %
	UK Independence	Robert Lancaster	242	0.59 %
	Labour hold	Labour majority	10,883	26.38 %

Links

• West Dunbartonshire Tories (Conservative)
  
  
• Scottish Jacobite Party