Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'The SNP, for so long the bridesmaid of Scottish politics, could be on the verge of real significance. Their leader, Alex Salmond, is beginning to look like a potential First Minister. Election night next May should be worth staying up for.' Sunday Herald editorial, 18 th June 2006.

Gordon (North East Scotland Region)

Candidates

	Neil Cardwell (Not standing on North East Scotland list)
	Labour
	Born in Edinburgh, Neil Cardwell studied Politics at Edinburgh University, graduating in 2005. During his time at University, Neil actively worked to promote the Labour party across the city, campaigning in elections at all levels. He is particularly proud of the tremendous local campaigning which saw Labour maintain control of the city council in the 2003 local government elections. As an active member of the University Students Association, Neil was involved in campaigns on a wide variety of issues, from student debt and hardship to Fair Trade. In 2004 he was involved in the successful campaign to re-affiliate Edinburgh University Students Association to the National Union of Students. Now working with North East MSP Richard Baker, Neil is part of Labour's team working daily to improve the lives of people throughout the region. In his spare time, he enjoys cinema, sports, hillwalking and reading. Recent electoral experience
	Bob Ingram (Number 1 on North East Scotland list)
	Scottish Enterprise Party
	Bob Ingram lives near Kemnay in Aberdeenshire. Recent electoral experience.
	Donald Marr (Not standing on North East Scotland list)
	Independent
	Recent electoral experience.
	Dave Mathers (Not standing on North East Scotland list)
	Independent
	Dave Mathers is aged 45, has three children and lives with his partner Lorna Allan. He says he is standing on an "anti-materialism" platform offering "a complete alternative to the other parties". He suffered serious head back and leg injuries in a hang-gliding accident and may still be in Raigmore hos”tal on the 3 rd May. Recent electoral experience. 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Gordon, 689 votes (2.39 %)
	Dr Nanette Milne MSP (Also number 2 on North East Scotland list)
	Conservative & Unionist
	Nanette Milne was born on the 27 th April 1942 in Aberdeen was educated at Aberdeen High School for Girls, and qualified as a doctor at Aberdeen University in 1965. She trained initially in Anaesthetics, gaining her fellowship in 1969. She took a few years out in the early '70's to bring up her two young children, and thereafter worked part-time in cancer related research. She joined the Conservative Party in 1974, moving from grass roots activist and branch committee member to constituency chairman and president, and then was vice-chairman of the Scottish Conservative Party from 1989-1993. She contested the Aberdeen South seat in the 1999 Scottish Parliamentary election, and the Gordon seat for Westminster in 2001 and for Holyrood in 2003, when she came second to the Liberal-Democrats, increasing the Conservatives' share of the vote. She is currently one of three Conservative list members of the Scottish Parliament for North East Scotland. From 1988-1999 she was the Aberdeen City Councillor for Cults ward. She sat on the Planning Committee for 8 years, during which time she developed an interest in environmental issues, and became a founder trustee of the Aberdeen Countryside Project. She got involved in the Aberdeen International Youth Festival, and is still an enthusiastic trustee and 'Friend' of the festival. She also became a trustee of the Aberdeen-Gomel Trust, formed after the Chernobyl disaster, and is still an active member of the Friends of Gomel. She is a governor of Aberdeen University, and she is spearheading the formation of an informal Alumnus Group of Aberdeen graduates who work within the Scottish Parliament. Spare time is scarce these days, but Nanette loves to spend time at home in Aberdeen, gardening, cooking and entertaining her grandchildren and friends, or walking the glens and golfing in her beloved Braemar area. She likes when possible to spend a week each winter skiing in the French Alps, usually in the Haute Savoie around Val d'Isere and Tignes, enjoying the food and wine as well as the excellent snow. Party Posts Health Spokesman February 2005 - Recent electoral experience. 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Gordon, 6,892 votes (23.93 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Third on Tory North East Scotland list, 42,318 votes (17.37 %) (elected) 2001 Westminster election, Gordon, 8,049 votes (23.00 %) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Aberdeen South, 52,149 votes (18.27 %) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Fifth on Tory North East Scotland list, 6,993 votes (20.16 %) 1995 Aberdeen City Council election, Cults, 998 votes (50.25 %) (elected) 1992 Aberdeen District Council election, Cults, 1,103 votes (65.30 %) (elected)0
	Nora Radcliffe MSP (Not standing on North East Scotland list)
	Liberal Democrat
	Nora Radcliffe was born on the 4 th March 1946 in Aberdeen and was educated at the High School for Girls in Aberdeen and Aberdeen University. From 1967 - 1973 she worked in Hotel and catering management, from 1973 - 1988 in various part time jobs and from 1992 - 1998 she was a member of the Primary Care Development Team on Grampian Health Board. She became a Gordon District Councillor in 1988 but was defeated by an Independent in 1992. She also stood for Grampian Regional council in 1994 polling 8.2 %, and for Aberdeenshire Council in 1995 polling just 2.2 %. In 1999 she was elected to the Scottish Parliament of the MSP for Gordon. She is Convener of the Cross-Party Groups on Food and Women, Co-Convener of the Cross-Party Groups on Wastes Management and Renewable Energy and Deputy Convener of the Cross-Party Groups on Animal Welfare and Rural Policy. She is also a member of the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body. Party Posts Convener of the Scottish Liberal Democrats Parliamentary Party Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Gordon, 10,963 votes (38.07 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Gordon, 12,353 votes (36.74 %) (elected) 1995 Aberdeenshire Council election, Banff/Hilton, 38 votes (2.20 %) 1994 Grampian Region Council election, Banff & Portsoy, 243 votes (8.22 %) 1992 Gordon District Council election, North Inverurie, 512 votes (38.55 %) (defeated) 1988 Gordon District Councillor (elected)
	Alex Salmond MP (Also number 1 on North East Scotland list)
	Scottish National Party
	Alex Salmond was born in Linlithgow on 31 December 1954. He was educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University, where he graduated with a Master of Arts (MA), with joint honours in Economics and History. Alex was first employed through the Government Economic Service (GES) as an Assistant Economist in the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries for Scotland. In 1980, Alex joined the Royal Bank of Scotland, for whom he worked for seven years, first as an Assistant Economist, then as the Oil Economist and latterly as Royal Bank Economist. While with the Royal Bank, Alex wrote and broadcast extensively for both domestic and international outlets. He also contributed regularly to oil and energy conferences, devising, in 1983, the 'Royal Bank / BBC Oil Index' which continues monthly publication to this day. Alex was first elected as Member of Parliament for Banff and Buchan in the 1987 General Election and more than doubled his majority in 1992. In the 1997 election, Alex more than trebled his majority, which at 12,845 is the highest ever achieved by an SNP MP. At the 2001 election, he again had a 5-figure majority. Alex was elected leader of the SNP in 1990, since when the SNP has emerged as the second party in Scotland, winning just under 30% of the vote and 35 MSPs in the first Scottish Parliament in the election of 1999. Alex served as Leader of the Opposition and Shadow First Minister in the Scots Parliament before standing down as Party Leader in September 2000, with his party on a historic high in the opinion polls. Although he stood down from the Scottish Parliament in 2001, he remained an MP at Westminster, and, after the leadership contest of 2004 returned as SNP leader with 75% of the vote. In addition to the more orthodox political media appearances in such programmes as "Question Time" and "Any Questions", Alex has always been prepared to engage in the lighter side of politics, apearing regularly on "Have I got News for You", "Call My Bluff", and "Clive Anderson Talks Back". In 1998, Alex won the Spectator Award for Political strategist of the Year. Throughout his time in politics, Alex has maintained a strong interest in the racing industry, writing a weekly column for the Scotsman newspaper and appearing a number of times on Channel 4's "The Morning Line". On paper, Gordon should be a safe seat for the Lib Dems as it is number 19 on the SNP's hit list and would require a 7.1 % swing for the SNP to win the seat. However, Alex Salmond's candidature throws the result wide open. In 1999, when Alex Salmond headed the SNP's North of Scotland list, the SNP were only 1,320 votes and 3.9 % behind the Liberals in the regional vote in Gordon. Shadow Ministerial Posts Shadow First Minister May 1999 - September 2000 Party Posts SNP leader September 1990 - September 2000 SNP leader September 2004 - Recent electoral experience 2005 Westminster election, Banff & Buchan, 19,044 votes (51.17 %) (elected) 2001 Westminster election, Banff & Buchan, 16,710 votes (54.24 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Banff & Buchan, 16,695 votes (52.61 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, First on SNP North East Scotland list, 92,329 votes (32.35 %) 1997 Westminster election, Banff & Buchan, 22,409 votes (55.77 %) (elected) 1992 Westminster election, Banff & Buchan, 21,954 votes (47.53 %) (elected) 1987 Westminster election, Banff & Buchan, 19,462 votes (44.26 %) (elected)

Constituency profile

Assessment:

This assessment is based on the 2003 election results

Rank on Conservative hit list: 9 (17 in 2003)
Swing required for Conservative gain: 7.07 % from Liberal Democrat to Conservative

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 19 (17 in 2003)
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 7.75 % from Liberal Democrat to Scottish National Party

Rank on Labour hit list: 17 (15 in 2003)
Swing required for Labour gain: 13.88 % from Liberal Democrat to Labour

Correlation to the new Westminster constituencies

The electorate of 60,496 was split between the new Westminster constituencies of:
Gordon: 44,357 (73.3 %)
Banff & Buchan: 8,857 (14.7 %)
Moray: 6,011 (9.9 %)
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine: 1,271 (2.1 %)

Local Government wards in the constituency

Previous results

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Electorate 60,686. Turnout 28,798, 47.45 % (- 9.06 %)
Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Liberal Democrat	Nora Radcliffe MSP	10,963	38.07 %	+ 1.33 %
	Conservative	Nanette Milne	6,892	23.93 %	+ 4.29 %
	Scottish National Party	Dr Alasdair Allan	6,501	22.57 %	- 1.69 %
	Labour	Ellis Thorpe	2,973	10.32 %	- 1.43 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	John Sangster	780	2.71 %	(+ 2.71 %)
	Independent	Steven Mathers	689	2.39 %	(+ 2.39 %)
	Liberal Democrat hold	Liberal Democrat majority	4,071	14.14 %	+ 1.66 %

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Electorate 60,686. Turnout 28,797, 47.45 % 169 rejected ballot papers
Logo	Party	Votes	%	% change
	Liberal Democrats	8,163	28.35 %	- 1.89 %
	Conservative & Unionist Party	6,666	23.15 %	+ 2.93 %
	Scottish National Party	6,523	22.65 %	- 3.67 %
	Labour	3,380	11.74 %	- 3.12 %
	Scottish Green Party	1,568	5.45 %	+ 2.74 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	847	2.94 %	+ 2.43 %
	Pensioners' Party	540	1.88 %	(+ 1.88 %)
	The Fishing Party	368	1.26 %	(+ 1.26 %)
	Socialist Labour Party	250	0.87 %	+ 0.03 %
	Steven Mathers (Independent)	211	0.73 %	(+ 0.73 %)
	UK Independence Party	205	0.72 %	(+ 0.72 %)
	Scottish Peoples Alliance	80	0.28 %	(+ 0.28 %)
	Liberal Democrat majority	1,497	5.20 %	+ 1.27 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Liberal Democrat	Nora Radcliffe	12,353	36.74 %	- 5.87 %
	Scottish National Party	Sandy Stronach	8,158	24.26 %	+ 4.29 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Alex Johnstone	6,602	19.64 %	- 6.40 %
	Labour	Gillian Carlin-Kulwicki	3,950	11.75 %	+ 1.45 %
	Independent	Hamish Watt	2,559	7.61 %	+ 7.61 %
	Liberal Democrat win	Liberal Democrat majority	4,195	12.48 %	- 4.09 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Logo	Party	Votes	%
	Liberal Democrats	10,168	30.24 %
	Scottish National Party	8,848	26.32 %
	Conservative & Unionist Party	6,797	20.22 %
	Labour	4,998	14.86 %
	Hamish Watt	1,260	3.75 %
	Scottish Green Party	912	2.71 %
	Socialist Labour Party	284	0.84 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	170	0.51 %
	Sleaze Buster	106	0.32 %
	Natural Law Party	80	0.24 %
	Liberal Democrat majority	1,320	3.93 %

1 st May 1997 Westminster Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Liberal Democrat	Malcolm Bruce	17,999	42.61 %
	Conservative & Unionist	John Porter	11,002	26.04 %
	Scottish National Party	Richard Lochhead	8,435	19.97 %
	Labour	Lindsey Kirkhill	4,350	10.30 %
	Referendum	Fred Pidcock	459	1.09%
	Liberal Democrat hold (notional Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative)	Liberal Democrat majority	6,997	16.57%

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