Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'Last week, the gibe was that Campbell not only looks like a Tory, he is sounding like one too. His big idea for Liberal Democracy has been to join the tax-cutting consensus by ditching the 50p higher rate, and promising £20 billion in tax reductions.' Iain Macwhiter in the Sunday Herald, 11 th June 2006.

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (North East Scotland Region)

Candidates

	James Noble (Not standing on North East Scotland list)
	Labour
	James Noble, 21, works for the Scottish Parliament in Aberdeen and is the North of Scotland Co-ordinator for Young Labour. James Noble said: "I am looking forward to campaigning on a number of local issues. I know that under the Labour-led Scottish Executive, school results and access to health services have improved, and our anti-social behaviour legislation is starting to make a real difference in local communities. Issues such as free concessionary travel and the ground-breaking ban on smoking in public places have demonstrated that Labour has a positive and ambitious message for Scotland. Only Labour can continue to deliver for Aberdeenshire using a strong and stable economy to make a real difference to public services." Recent electoral experience
	Dennis Robertson (Also number 6 on North East Scotland list)
	Scottish National Party
	Dennis was born in Aberdeen and live in the Constituency with my wife Ann, two teenage daughters and guide dog Woody. He is currently work for a leading charity in Aberdeen. He is a long standing member of the SNP and in the past stood as a Local Government Candidate in North Tayside. From an early age Dennis has been passionate about his Scottish identity and proud to live in a country that embraces many peoples and cultures from around the world and recognises Scotland as an inclusive society giving opportunities to all its citizens. He is of the confirmed opinion that Independence is not just inspirational but a fundamental right of any Nation aspiring to take its rightful place in the world and responsibility for its own future. As a result of the Union, and to Scotland's detriment, we have for successive generations witnessed the stifling of our economic growth and development. The rape of our natural resources and migration of talented peoples must be brought to an end. It is time for Scotland to become an independent nation taking its rightful place at the top table in Europe and the rest of the World. Recent electoral experience 2003 Angus Council election, Kirriemuir West 590 votes (31.42 %)
	Mike Rumbles MSP (Also number 2 on North East Scotland list)
	Liberal Democrat
	Mike Rumbles was born on the 10 th of June 1956 in South Shields in England and was educated at St James School in Hebburn, County Durham, Sunderland Polytechnic where he graduated with a BEd, graduated and the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst. From 1979 to 1994 he was a Major in the Education & Training Services Branch of the British Army, then from 1995 until his election in 1999 a Team Leader in Business Management at Aberdeen College. In 1999 h was elected as MP for Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine. He has opposed the selling of Lib Dem principles for Ministerial Mondeos and in March 2001 resigned as Lib Dem Rural Development spokesman after voting against the Executive on Fisheries decomissioning and contributing to their defeat. After the 2005 election he was a member of the Lib Dem team that negotiated with Labour and he was appointed Health spokesman. In June 2005, following the retiral of Jim Wallace, he stood as Scot Lib Dem leader, polling a credible 642 votes (23.4 %) for a compared to 2,108 votes (76.6 %) for Aberdeen South MSP Nicol Stephen. In August 2005, he resigned as the party's Health spokesman. In March 2007 it was revealed that he had used expenses to help buy three different properties in Edinburgh since 1999, the latest a £300,000 luxury appartment. Mr Rumbles said "What I do with my own money is nobody else's business!" Ministerial positions None Party positions May 1999 - November 2000 Lib Dem spokesman for Rural Affairs & Political standards November 2000 - March 2001 Lib Dem spokesman on Rural Development May 2003 - August 2005 Lib Dem spokesman on Health Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish parliament election, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, 14,553 votes (46.00 %) (elected) 2003 Scottish parliament election, Second on Lib Dem North East Scotland list, 45,831 votes (18.81 %) 1999 Scottish parliament election, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, 12,838 votes (35.92 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish parliament election, Fourth on Lib Dem North East Scotland list, 49,843 votes (17.46 %) 1997 Westminster election, Aberdeen North, 5,421 votes (14.11 %)
	Stewart Whyte (Also number 4 on North East Scotland list)
	Conservative & Unionist
	Stewart Whyte spent his childhood and youth in Banff & Buchan on farms in Crudie, Aberchirder and Boyndie. His grandparents live in Portsoy and his family now stay at Alvah. He attended Banff Academy and studied history at Aberdeen University followed by a teacher training course at Northern college. His first teahing position was at Fraserburgh Academy in the mid 1990s. He currently teaches History and RME at Aboyne Academy in rural Aberdeenshire. Recent electoral experience. 2005 Westminster election, Aberdeen South, 7,134 votes (17.17 %) 2003 Scottis Parliament election, Banff & Buchan, 5,463 votes (20.89 %) 2003 Scottis Parliament election, Sixth on Tory North East Scotland list, 42,318 votes (17.37 %) 2001 Westminster election, Aberdeen Central, 3,761 votes (14.23 %) 1999 Aberdeen City Council election, Kittybrewster, 168 votes (8.10 %)

Constituency profile

Assessment:

This assessment is based on the 2003 election results

Rank on Conservative hit list: 12 (4 in 2003)
Swing required for Conservative gain: 8.54 % from Liberal Democrat to Conservative

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 54 (27 in 2003)
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 15.91 % from Liberal Democrat to Scottish National Party

Rank on Labour hit list: 23 (12 in 2003)
Swing required for Labour gain: 18.69 % from Liberal Democrat to Labour

Correlation to the new Westminster constituencies

The electorate of 60,896 was split between the new Westminster constituencies of:
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 60,896 (98.2 %)
Gordon 1,119 (1.8 %)

Local Government wards in the constituency

Previous results

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Electorate 62,542. Turnout 31,636, 50.58 % (- 8.29 %)
Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Liberal Democrat	Mike Rumbles MSP	14,553	46.00 %	+ 10.08 %
	Conservative & Unionist	David Davidson MSP	9,154	28.94 %	- 0.58 %
	Scottish National Party	Cllr Ian Angus	4,489	14.19 %	- 7.35 %
	Labour	Kevin Hutchens	2,727	8.62 %	- 4.39 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	Alan Manley	713	2.25 %	(+ 2.25 %)
	Liberal Democrat hold	Liberal Democrat majority	5,399	17.07 %	+ 10.66 %

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Electorate 62,542. Turnout 31,603, 50.53 % 165 rejected ballot papers
Logo	Party	Votes	%	% change
	Liberal Democrats	10,047	31.79 %	+ 7.36 %
	Conservative & Unionist	8,688	27.49 %	- 0.95 %
	Scottish National Party	4,846	15.33 %	- 8.80 %
	Labour	3,244	10.26 %	- 5.85 %
	Scottish Green Party	2,077	6.57 %	+ 3.38 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	913	2.89 %	+ 2.50 %
	The Fishing Party	703	2.22 %	(+ 2.22 %)
	Pensioners's Party	496	1.57 %	(+ 1.57 %)
	UK Independence Party	224	0.71 %	(+ 0.71 %)
	Socialist Labour Party	186	0.59 %	- 0.16 %
	Steven Mathers (Independent)	108	0.34 %	(+ 0.34 %)
	Scottish Peoples Alliance	71	0.22 %	(+ 0.22 %)
	Liberal Democrat majority	1,359	4.30 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency vote

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Liberal Democrat	Mike Rumbles	12,838	35.92 %	- 5.16 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Ben Wallace	10,549	29.52 %	- 5.40 %
	Scottish National Party	Maureen Watt	7,699	21.54 %	+ 8.48 %
	Labour	Gordon Guthrie	4,650	13.01 %	+ 3.93 %
	Liberal Democrat win	Liberal Democrat majority	2,289	6.40 %	+ 0.34 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list vote

Logo	Party	Votes	%
	Conservative & Unionist	10,166	28.44 %
	Liberal Democrats	9,091	25.43 %
	Scottish National Party	8,626	24.13 %
	Labour	5,760	16.11 %
	Scottish Green Party	1,140	3.19 %
	Hamish Watt	319	0.89 %
	Socialist Labour Party	268	0.75 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	140	0.39 %
	Sleaze Buster	138	0.39 %
	Natural Law Party	103	0.29 %
	Conservative & Unionist majority	1,075	3.01 %

1 st May 1997 Westminster Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Liberal Democrat	Sir Robert Smith	17,742	41.08 %
	Conservative & Unionist	George Kynoch MP	15,080	34.92 %
	Scottish National Party	Joy Mowatt	5,639	13.06 %
	Labour	Qaisra Khan	3,923	9.08 %
	Referendum	Steve Ball	805	1.86%
	Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative	Liberal Democrat majority	2,662	6.16 %

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