Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'The threat posed by the Nationalists has now reached Downing Street. At a pre-election briefing earlier this month, Jack McConnell warned the Prime Minister that the SNP could win the 2007 poll.' Scottish Political Editor Paul Hutcheon in th Sunday Herald, 18 th June 2006.

Kilmarnock & Loudoun

Candidates

	Cllr Ron Aitken (Also number 3 on Central Scotland list)
	Liberal Democrat
	Ron Aitken was born and brought up in Glasgow and educated at Glasgow University and the School of Oriental and African Studies where he graduated with a BA in Middle East Politics, and an MSc in International Politics of Asia. He has been a Liberal Democrat Councillor in London since 2002 and for ten years he worked as an assistant to various MPs in the House of Commons on Northern Ireland, health, and environment issues. Recent electoral experience 2006 London Borough of Haringey Council election, Crouch End, 1820 votes (elected) 2002 London Borough of Haringey Council election, Crouch End, (elected)
	Cllr Wille Coffey (Not standing on Central Scotland list)
	Scottish National Party
	Willie Coffey has been the Cllr for Onthank in East Ayrshire since 1999. In 1995 he won ward 3 of Kilmarnock & Loudoun District Council from Labour. He narrowly failed to win ward 14 on the new East Ayrshire Council in 1995, but won Onthank in 1999 and held it in 2003. Cllr Coffey works for Learning and Teaching Scotland and is a member of Kilmarnock Football Club. He is a member of the following Council committees: Kilmarnock North Area Local Committee, Central Area Local Planning Committee, Education, Housing and Policy & Resources. Willie Coffey is the brother of Cllr Daniel Coffey who came within 1,210 votes of winning Kilmarnock & Loudoun in 2003 and died tragically on the 26 th February 2006. Their sister, Helen Coffey, held Danny's ward with an increased majority and a 5.6 % swing from Labour. A swing of just 2 % in Kilmarnock & Loudoun would see Willie Coffey win the seat from Labour. Recent electoral experience 2003 East Ayrshire Council election, ward 7, Onthank, 714 votes (56.26 %) (elected) 1999 East Ayrshire Council election, ward 7, Onthank, 968 votes (58.38 %) (elected) 1995 East Ayrshire Council election, ward 14, 926 votes (48.20 %) 1992 Kilmarnock & Loudoun District Council election, ward 3, 801 votes (49.88 %) (elected)
	Margaret Jamieson MSP (Not standing on Central Scotland list)
	Labour
	Margaret Jamieson was born in Kilmarnock in 1953 and educated at Grange Academy in Kilmarnock and Ayr College where she obtained City and Guilds qualifications 147 and 151 in Catering. From 1969 until 1974 she worked as a cook with Ayrshire & Arran Health Board and from 1974 to 1975 as a cook with Welch Margetson. From 1975 to 1979 she was a cook in charge at Strathclyde Regional Council and from 1979 until her election in 1999 a Regional Officer with UNISON (formerly NUPE). She is married an a member of Unison. In the parliament she is Convener of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link Bill Committee and Convener of the Cross-Party Group on Kidney Disease. Committee Convenerships Convener of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link Bill Committee Ministerial positions None Recent electoral experience 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, 12,633 votes (40.08 %) (elected) 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, 17,345 votes (44.08 %) (elected)
	Dr Janette McAlpine (Also number 4 on Central Scotland list)
	Conservative & Unionist
	Dr Janette McAlpine was born in Baillieston in Glasgow 37 years ago and brought up in nearby Uddingston. She works as a knowledge transfer manager at Glasgow Caledonian University. She says: 'A lot of people have been let down by Labour and Liberal Democrats on the Scottish executive and they see us as the natural successor to them.' Recent electoral experience. 2005 Westminster election, Glasgow South, 4,836 votes (12.58 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Glasgow Baillieston, 1,472 votes (8.06 %) 2003 Scottish Parliament election, Eighth on Tory Glasgow list, 15,299 votes (7.87 %)

Constituency profile

Assessment:

This assessment is based on the 2003 election results

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 4 (6 in 2003)
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 1.92 % from Labour to Scottish National Party

Rank on Conservative hit list: 38 (33 in 2003)
Swing required for Conservative gain: 14.82 % from Labour to Conservative

Rank on Liberal Democrat hit list: 35 (32 in 2003)
Swing required for Liberal Democrat gain: 17.55 % from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Correlation to the new Westminster constituencies

The electorate of 61,699 was split between the new Westminster constituencies of:
Kilmarnock & Loudoun: 61,699 (100.0 %)

Local Government wards in the constituency

Previous results

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Electorate 61,055. Turnout 31,520, 51.63 % (- 12.41 %)
Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	Margaret Jamieson MSP	12,633	40.08 %	- 4.00 %
	Scottish National Party	Cllr Daniel Coffey	11,423	36.24 %	- 0.83 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Robin Traquair	3,295	10.45 %	- 1.21 %
	Liberal Democrat	Ian Gibson	1,571	4.98 %	- 2.21 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	Colin Rutherford	1,421	4.51 %	(+ 4.51 %)
	Independent	Mary Anderson	404	1.28 %	(+ 1.28 %)
	Independent	Matthew Donnelly	402	1.28 %	(+ 1.28 %)
	Scottish Peoples Alliance	Lyndsay McIntosh MSP	371	1.18 %	(+ 1.18 %)
	Labour hold	Labour majority	1,210	3.84 %	- 3.17 %

1 st May 2003 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Electorate 61,055. Turnout 31,509, 51.61 % 172 rejected ballot papers
Logo	Party	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	11,736	37.25 %	+ 0.33 %
	Scottish National Party	8,595	27.28 %	- 6.41 %
	Conservative & Unionist Party	3,599	11.42 %	- 0.96 %
	Liberal Democrats	1,867	5.93 %	- 0.96 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	1,789	5.68 %	+ 4.11 %
	Scottish Green Party	1,368	4.34 %	+ 2.34 %
	Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party	1,336	4.24 %	(+ 4.24 %)
	Socialist Labour Party	530	1.68 %	- 1.51 %
	Scottish Peoples Alliance	314	1.00 %	(+ 1.00 %)
	Mary Anderson (Independent)	183	0.58 %
	Scottish Unionist Party	124	0.39 %	- 0.09 %
	UK Independence Party	68	0.22 %	(+ 0.22 %)
	Labour majority	3,141	9.97 %	+ 6.44 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	Margaret Jamieson	17,345	44.08 %	- 5.74 %
	Scottish National Party	Alex Neil	14,585	37.07 %	+ 2.55 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Lyndsay McIntosh	4,589	11.66 %	+ 0.85 %
	Liberal Democrat	John Stewart	2,830	7.19 %	+ 3.20 %
	Labour win	Labour majority	2,760	7.01 %	- 8.29 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Logo	Party	Votes	%
	Labour	14,649</td>	37.22 %
	Scottish National Party	13,259	33.69 %
	Conservative & Unionist Party	4,874	12.38 %
	Liberal Democrats	2,713	6.89 %
	Socialist Labour Party	1,256	3.19 %
	Scottish Green Party	788	2.00 %
	Member of Parliament for Falkirk West	632	1.61 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	618	1.57 %
	Scottish Unionist Party	190	0.48 %
	ProLife Alliance	122	0.31 %
	Natural Law Party	88	0.22 %
	Others: Scottish Families & Pensioners Party Independent Progressive (Breakdown not available)	170	0.43 %
	Labour majority	1,390	3.53 %

1 st May 1997 Westminster Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Desmond Browne	23,621	49.82 %
	Scottish National Party	Alex Neil	16,365	34.52 %
	Conservative & Unionist	Douglas Taylor	5,125	10.81 %
	Liberal Democrat	John Stewart	1,891	3.99 %
	Referendum	William Sneddon	284	0.60%
	Natural Law	William Gilmour	123	0.26%
	Labour hold	Labour majority	7,256	15.30 %

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