Most Marginal Seats and Party Targets

'Every donor who has given Labour more than £1 million has received a knighthood or a peerage' Angus MacNeil, SNP MP for Na h-Eileanan An Iar, 17 th March 2006.

Most Marginal Seats and Party Targets

The Queen visits the Fawlty Parliament

In the Scottish General election of May 2007, there will be two battlegrounds. The first is the constituency vote, a traditional first past post contest where the person with the most votes wins, despite how small a percentage of the total votes cast they may win. The second vote is for regional MSPs: additional seats are awarded in an attempt to make the final composition of the Scottish Parliament more representative of the votes cast.

A note about swings
Swing is a term which defines the change in percentage vote between two parties. The change in percentage vote for each party are added together then divided by two to give the Two Party Swing. The three examples below demonstrate this:

1. Dundee East - Labour vote decreased, SNP vote increased
   Labour polled 43.28 % in the 1999 Scottish parliament election and 39.24 % in the 2003 Scottish parliament election, a drop of 4.04 %.
   The Scottish National Party polled 34.26 % in the 1999 Scottish parliament election and 39.58 % in the 2003 Scottish parliament, an increase of 5.32 %.
   The swing from Labour to the SNP was (4.04 + 5.32)/2 = 4.68 %.
   
   
2. Glasgow Rutherglen - Labour vote decreased, LibDem vote decreased
   Labour polled 46.31 % in the 1999 Scottish parliament election and 45.83 % in the 2003 Scottish parliament election, a drop of 0.48 %.
   The Liberal Democrats polled 19.98 % in the 1999 Scottish parliament election and 19.07 % in the 2003 Scottish parliament, a drop of 0.91 %.
   The swing from the Liberal Democrats to Labour was (0.91 - 0.48)/2 = 0.22 %.
   
   
3. Argyll & Bute - LibDem vote increased, Tory vote increased
   The Liberal Democrats polled 34.89 % in the 1999 Scottish parliament election and 35.13 % in the 2003 Scottish parliament election, an increase of 0.24 %.
   The Tories polled 16.51 % in the in the 1999 Scottish parliament election and 20.11 % in the 2003 Scottish parliament election, an increase of 4.01 %.
   The swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Tories was (4.01 - 0.24)/2 = 1.89 %.

• Most marginal seats in 2003

• Smallest majorities in 2003
  
  
• Conservative Target Seats

• Labour Target Seats

• Liberal Democrat Target Seats

• Scottish National Party Target Seats

• Scottish Socialist Party Target Seats

I am grateful to Malcolm Dickson for pointing out that strictly, swing should be calculated on the basis of consecutive elections for a seat, for the same institution.