A Vote for Independence?

'Labour has only to lose three seats to the SNP to be in danger of losing the chance of a majority coalition with the Liberal Democrats.' Hamish MacDonell, Scotish Political Editor in the Scotsman, 27 th September 2005.

A Vote for Independence?

Labour and the Lib Dems unable to govern alone?

If the Scottish Socialist Party had not stood in the constituencies at the 2003 Scottish election and their supporters had voted for the Scottish National Party, the political composition of the parliament would have changed very little. There would have been three less Labour MSPs, two more SNP MSPs and one more SSP MSP.

However, the membership of the parliament would have seen additional changes. One Tory MSP would have been saved by the regional list, but eight other members who were elected in 2003 would have lost their seats and been replaced by eight other candidates, some of them sitting MSPs, due to gains and losses in the constuencies and regions.

Dramatically, the small change in the political composition would have meant that Labour and the Liberal Democrats would have been in a minority of one, and would have been unable to govern without the assistance of a third party or individual.

It is possible that the Scottish Socialist party may not contest any constituencies at the May 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections.

The logic for this is that contesting the constituencies splits the pro Independence vote. It is supposed that electing pro-Independence Scottish National Party MSPs in the constituencies would make it easier to elect pro-Independence Scottish Socialist MSPs from the regional lists.

However, the mixed First Past the Post plus Additional Member System is a hybrid system which can penalise winners as well as losers. In fact, the current SSP leader, Colin Fox was elected thanks to the fact that the Liberal Democrats won Edinburgh South from Labour. Ironically, in gaining a constituency, they lost their regional list seat and it was the SSP's Colin Fox who was the real "winner" because of the Lib Dem victory over Labour.

We have simulated a re-run of the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election. Here we make the assumption that the SSP stand down in all constituencies except Glasgow Pollock, while the SNP stand down in Glasgow Pollok in favour of the SSP. The second assumption is that all SSP votes transfer to the SNP and vice versa.

In that event, no less than seven constituency seats would have changed hands: the Scottish National Party's Alasdair Morgan MSP would have held Galloway & Upper Nithsdale (which he lost to Tory Alex Fergusson MSP by 99 votes. The SNP's Christine Grahame MSP would have beaten Jeremy Purves in Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale. Labour would have lost four seats to the SNP with Cllr Daniel Coffey beating Margaret Jamieson MSP in Kilmarnock & Loudoun, Irene McGugan MSP beating Kate MacLean MSP in Dundee West, Andrew Wilson MSP beating Cathie Craigie MSP in Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, and Nicola Sturgeon MSP beating Gordon 'Crackerjack' Jackson QC MSP in Glasgow Govan.

For the Scottish Socialist Party, Tommy Sheridan MSP would have won Glasgow Pollock from Labour's Johann Lamont MSP.

The result in the constituencies would have been:
Labour 41 (- 5)
Scottish National Party 15 (+ 6)
Liberal Democrat 12 (- 1)
Conservative & Unionist 2 (- 1)
Scottish Socialist Party 1 (+ 1)
Independent Canavan 1
Independent Turner 1

Full details of the constituency details are enclosed below.

Potential Scottish National Party gains from the Tories

Potential Scottish National Party gains from the Liberal Democrats

Potential Scottish National Party gains from Labour

Potential Scottish Socialist Party gains from Labour

Swings and Roundabouts?

Glasgow Region

In Glasgow region, ten Labour MSPs were elected from the constituencies in 2003. In our simulation, eight Labour, one SNP and one SSP MSP would have been elected from the constituencies.

This would have impacted on the order in which the various party representatives were elected from the list, but not the number from each party. Bill Kidd, third on the SNP Glasgow list would have been elected as the 6 th regional list MSP, while Tricia McLeish, third on the SSP's regional list would have been elected as the 7 th regional list MSP.

The result in Glasgow would be an extra constituency MSP each for the SNP and SSP and two less constituency MSPs for Labour.

Central Scotland Region

In Central Scotland region, nine Labour MSPs and one Independent (Denis Cannavan) were elected from the constituencies in 2003. In our simulation, seven Labour, two SNP and one Independent MSPs would have been elected from the constituencies.

In this region, the SNP's gain of two seats would be offset of the loss of one regional list seat. The two Labour constituency losses would be offset by a gain of one list seat. This result would have affected a number of the MSPs elected to parliament: For the SNP, Andrew Wilson MSP would have been elected in Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Cllr Daniel Coffey as MSP for Kilmarnock & Loudoun, while Linda Fabiani MSP, third on the SNP list would not have been elected. Labour would have lost Margaret Jamieson MSP in Kilmarkock & Loudoun and Cathie Craigie MSP in Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, while John Pentland would have been elected from his first place on the Labour list.

The result in Central Scotland would be two extra constituency MSPs for the SNP and two less Labour constituency MSPs. The SNP would lose one constituency MSP while Labour would gain one.

North East Scotland Region

In North East Scotland region, four SNP, three Lib Dem and two Labour MSPs were elected from the constituencies in 2003. In our simulation, five SNP, three Lib Dem and one Labour MSPs would have been elected from the constituencies.

In this region, the SNP's gain of one seat would be offset of the loss of one regional list seat. The Labour constituency loss would be offset by a gain of one list seat. This result would have affected a number of the MSPs elected to parliament: For the SNP, Irene McGugan MSP would have been elected in Dundee West, while Richard Lochhead MSP, first on the SNP list would not have been elected. Labour would have lost Kate MacLean MSP in Dundee West, while Kevin Hutchens would have been elected from his third place on the Labour list.

The result in North East Scotland would be no overall change in the number of MSPs elected.

South of Scotland Region

In South of Scotland region, five Labour MSPs, two Tory MSPs and two Lib Dem MSPs were elected from the constituencies in 2003. In our simulation, five Labour, two SNP, one Tory and one Lib Dem MSP would have been elected from the constituencies.

In this region, the SNP's gain of two seats would be offset of the loss of two regional list seats. The Tory and Lib Dems loss of a constituency each would be offset by a gain of one list seat each. This result would have one of the MSPs elected to parliament: For the Lib Dems Jeremy Purves would not have been elected in Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale, while Judy Hayman would have been elected from her first place on the Lib Dem list.

The result in South of Scotland would be no overall change in the number of MSPs elected.

Regional Summary

The result in the regional lists would have been:
Conservative & Unionist 16 (+ 1)
Scottish National Party 14 (- 4)
Green 7
Scottish Socialist Party 6
Labour 6 (+ 2)
Liberal Democrat 5 (+1)
SSCUP 1
Independent Macdonald 1

National Summary

The overall result in the Scottish Parliament would have been:
Labour 47 (- 3)
Scottish National Party 29 (+ 2)
Conservative & Unionist 18
Liberal Democrat 17
Scottish Socialist Party 7 (+ 1)
Green 7
SSCUP 1
Independent Turner 1
Independent Canavan 1
Independent Macdonald 1

Consequences for the Executive

The overall result in the Scottish Parliament would have been:
Labour plus Lib Dems 64 (- 3)
Opposition 65 (+ 3)
Executive minority of one

The Winners and Losers