Marginal Seats

'In the wake of Dunfermline, the Lib Dems oversold themselves in Moray, claiming they were poised to win the seat. Leapfrogging Labour and the Tories to take second place would have been impressive enough, but in the end they had to be content with third place ahead of Labour.' Ian Swanson in the Evening News, 4 th May 2006..

Most Marginal Seats in May 2003

The following tables indicate the most marginal seats for each party or independent in the election of 1 st May 2003. Also noted are percentages obtained by each party or independent in the two by elections held during this parliament: Glasgow Cathcart (29 th September 2005) and Moray (27 th April 2006).
The ranking of the constituency in 1999 is noted in brackets while constituencies that changed hand in 2003 are marked with an asterisk ^*. (This list includes Ayr, which the Tories won from Labour in a by-election on 16 March 2000)

Key

Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Scottish Socialist Alliance
Dennis Canavan	Dr Jean Turner	Independent Campaign for Local Hospital Services	Independent

Most Marginal Seats in the 2003 Scottish Election

Rank	Name	Majority	% Majority	1st	%	2nd	%	3rd	%	4th	%
1 (18)	Galloway & Upper Nithsdale *	99	0.33		38.24		37.90		14.51		6.23
2 (17)	Dundee East *	90	0.34		39.58		39.24		11.89		6.01
3 (33)	Edinburgh South *	151	0.51		32.07		31.56		16.60		14.09
4 (5)	Ochil *	296	0.97		38.33		37.36		9.67		8.34
5 (64)	Strathkelvin & Bearsden *	438	1.24		31.10		29.86		14.01		13.71
6 (4)	Aberdeen North *	457	1.83		33.49		31.66		23.04		9.23
7 (32)	Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale	538	2.01		26.96		24.94		21.56		21.30
8 (35)	Cumbernauld & Kilsyth	520	2.13		41.58		39.44		7.47		5.18
9 (9)	Perth	727	2.30		33.90		31.60		17.81		11.17
10 (3)	Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber	1,046	3.01		30.94		27.93		17.83		16.16
11 (19)	Dumfries	1,096	3.41		39.97		36.56		12.24		7.46
12 (13)	Kilmarnock & Loudoun	1,210	3.84		40.08		36.24		10.45		4.98
13 (2)	Dundee West	1,066	4.26		32.93		28.67		18.86		7.51
14 (40)	Western Isles	720	5.81		47.03		41.21		4.98		4.02
15 (12)	Glasgow Govan	1,235	5.84		37.06		31.22		11.21		8.89
16 (21)	Aberdeen Central	1,242	5.92		32.60		26.68		22.63		12.48
17 (1)	Ayr *	1,890	5.98		40.72		34.74		13.72		5.60
18 (14)	Edinburgh Pentlands *	2,111	6.32		37.21		30.88		16.84		11.81
19 (16)	Linlithgow	1,970	7.13		41.77		34.65		11.07		7.57
20 (15)	Renfrewshire West	2,492	8.81		34.17		25.37		24.26		10.25
21 (28)	Edinburgh Central	2,666	9.52		32.36		22.85		17.72		27.14
22 (7)	Eastwood	3,702	9.52		35.86		26.34		13.00		12.18
23 (25)	Stirling	2,880	9.71		35.96		26.25		19.04		11.58
24 (39)	Paisley South	2,453	9.82		40.79		30.97		14.08		7.10
25 (48)	Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	2,092	9.90		36.65		26.74		17.48		10.71
26 (60)	Fife Central	2,762	10.79		41.38		30.59		8.82		7.04
27 (30)	Roxburgh & Berwickshire	2,490	11.06		41.22		30.16		12.51		12.45
28 (38)	Cunninghame North	3,387	11.83		38.92		27.09		19.36		8.15
29 (22)	Livingston	3,670	12.01		43.61		31.60		9.32		8.88
30 (41)	Greenock & Inverclyde	3,009	12.65		40.68		28.03		14.85		9.83
31 (24)	Tayside North	4,503	13.51		44.89		31.39		10.58		9.62
32 (29)	Gordon	4,071	14.14		38.07		23.93		22.57		10.32
33 (42)	Glasgow Kelvin	3,289	14.90		35.69		20.79		15.10		14.31
34 (10)	Argyll & Bute	4,196	15.01		35.13		20.11		19.63		18.27
35 (43)	East Kilbride	5,281	15.49		40.56		25.07		11.10		8.03
36 (49)	Glasgow Pollok	3,341	15.51		43.44		27.93		19.12		4.70
a	Glasgow Cathcart by-election 29/9/05	2,405	15.60		37.69		22.09		14.96		10.10
37 (45)	Dunfermline West	4,080	16.16		44.21		18.16		17.40		14.41
38 (11)	Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	5,399	17.07		46.00		28.94		14.19		8.62
39 (37)	Clydebank & Milngavie	4,534	17.10		39.92		22.82		12.16		10.88
40 (36)	Fife North East	5,055	17.26		46.03		28.77		12.50		8.04
41 (23)	Edinburgh West	5,914	17.76		43.34		25.58		15.15		12.41
42 (55)	Edinburgh North & Leith	5,414	18.84		38.21		19.37		16.78		16.65
43 (46)	Paisley North	4,310	19.41		47.87		28.47		8.43		7.68
44 (27)	Moray	5,312	19.69		42.19		22.50		19.11		12.17
45 (20)	Clydesdale	6,671	20.56		45.62		25.06		15.95		7.21
46 (51)	Edinburgh East & Musselburgh	6,158	21.20		43.57		22.37		13.30		12.33
47 (56)	Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley	7,454	21.69		47.97		26.28		16.94		4.99
48 (73)	Orkney	1,755	21.93		45.71		23.79		13.19		11.42
49 (44)	Kirkcaldy	4,824	21.99		46.65		24.66		11.02		10.63
50 (59)	Angus	6,687	22.45		44.48		22.03		16.35		12.76
51 (54)	Glasgow Cathcart	5,112	22.92		39.19		16.27		12.95		12.64
52 (34)	Dumbarton	6,612	22.94		42.17		19.23		15.46		14.50
b	Moray by election 27/4/06	6,385	23.29		46.15		22.86		19.37		9.83
53 (63)	Hamilton South	4,824	23.51		46.53		23.01		12.68		9.23
54 (52)	Midlothian	5,542	23.53		47.29		23.76		11.46		10.85
55 (6)	Ross, Skye & Inverness West	6,848	23.64		43.13		19.49		18.86		13.02
56 (26)	Falkirk East	6,659	24.16		51.65		27.49		9.87		5.99
57 (67)	Shetland	2,260	26.14		46.14		20.00		14.82		10.18
58 (65)	East Lothian	8,175	26.20		43.85		17.65		17.49		16.58
59 (8)	Aberdeen South	8,016	26.61		45.88		19.27		17.36		14.32
60 (57)	Cunninghame South	6,076	26.68		49.03		22.35		11.76		10.26
61 (58)	Glasgow Rutherglen	6,303	26.76		45.83		19.07		14.91		10.61
62 (72)	Glasgow Anniesland	6,253	28.21		45.75		17.54		14.37		11.82
63 (53)	Glasgow Maryhill	5,368	29.42		49.32		19.89		16.14		9.78
64 (66)	Dunfermline East	7,290	31.48		49.89		18.41		10.73		8.16
65 (70)	Banff & Buchan	8,364	31.99		52.88		20.89		11.03		8.52
66 (50)	Hamilton North & Bellshill	7,905	32.67		52.95		20.28		10.85		7.99
67 (31)	Glasgow Baillieston	6,178	33.81		52.86		19.04		13.47		8.06
68 (62)	Airdrie & Shotts	8,977	35.78		56.64		20.86		8.76		7.06
69 (69)	Coatbridge & Chryston	8,571	35.92		56.25		20.33		8.55		8.01
70 (47)	Motherwell & Wishaw	9,259	36.47		54.12		17.65		10.01		7.72
71 (71)	Falkirk West	10,000	37.88		55.69		17.81		17.38		6.28
72 (61)	Glasgow Shettleston	6,347	38.36		56.60		18.24		14.52		5.93
73 (68)	Glasgow Springburn	8,007	43.11		59.03		15.92		14.28		6.64