Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'Labour MPs' close relationship with lawyers who make donations to party funds will be examined in a 'cash for access' debate today in the Scottish Parliament after it emerged last night that one legal firm which used the constituency office of Henry McLeish has given the party Ł15,000 this year.'
Murray Ritchie in the Herald 8 th November 2001.

Strathkelvin & Bearsden (West of Scotland Region)

	Fiona McLeod MSP		Brian Fitzpatrick MSP
	Rory O'Brien		Jo Swinson
	Dr Jean McGivern Turner

This area was one of dynamic population growth in the 1970s. The core of the constituency was the old Dunbartonshire East seat which increased in size to almost 100,000 voters in 1970 resulting in Milngavie and Clydebank being moved to Central Dunbartonshire. Strathkelvin & Bearsden was created in 1983 with 66% of its voters from Dunbartonshire East, 27% from North Lanarkshire and 8% from Stirlingshire West. In the 1997 boundary changes, the northern Milton/Gartshore area from the old Monklands West were added while the north part of Bearsden was hived off to Clydebank & Milngavie.

This area is extremely dynamic and not only in terms of its rapid population growth. Between 1977 and 1982, Strathkelvin District Council was controlled by the SNP, the Conservatives and then by Labour. In the successive parliamentary seats of Dunbartonshire East and Strathkelvin and Bearsden, the fortunes of the four main parties have ebbed and flowed in a totally unpredictable manner. The area was represented by Labour from 1970 to February 1974, from 1979 to 1983 and from 1987 to 1997. The Conservatives were top dogs from February to October 1974 and from 1983 to 1987, while the SNP held the seat from October 1974 to 1979.

Dunbartonshire East was held by MPs of three different parties in 1974. It was won by Labour's Hugh McCartney in 1970, but when the new Dunbartonshire Central seat was created in 1974, Mr McCartney decided to move to that seat which he won with a 6,500 majority over the Tories. His move seemed like a good idea as the Tories won two seats from Labour in the February 1974 election. One was Berwick & East Lothian and the second was Dunbartonshire East where Barry Henderson beat Labour by 400 votes.

Mr Henderson did not represent Dunbartonshire East for long. In October 1974, the SNP's Mrs Margaret Bain increased her share of the vote by 8.9% to 15,551 and slipped past the Conservatives and Labour to win by 22 votes. Only 407 votes behind the defeated Conservative MP was the Labour's E.F. McGarry. Dunbartonshire East went into the record books as the most marginal seat in the UK.

In 1979 it was assumed that Labour would regain the seat which it had lost in February 1974, and indeed Norman Hogg won the seat with a 2,324 majority over Conservative Michael Hirst, with Mrs Bain relegated to third place as in February 1974. Barry Henderson became MP for East and North East Fife from 1979 to 1987 when he was defeated by Labour while Norman Hogg was given a peerage in 1997 for resigning his seat in favour of ultra-Blairite Rosemary McKenna. Margaret Bain outlasted both her rivals. As Mrs Margaret Ewing she won the Moray Westminster seat in 1987 and the Scottish parliamentary seat in 1999.

The boundary and population changes in 1983 did not favour Labour and Norman Hogg preferred to the new Cumbernauld & Kilsyth seat to Strathkelvin & Bearsden. It was another wise move by a sitting Labour MP as Strathkelvin was won by Conservative Michael Hirst with a majority of 3,700 over the Liberal-Alliance's Ron Waddell. Labour's Adam Ingram, who became MP for East Kilbride in 1987, was relegated to third place and the SNP's Mrs Margaret Bain to fourth place. The Tories took 36.4 %, the Liberals 28.7 %, Labour 25.6 % and the SNP 9.2 %.

The tables turned yet again in 1987 with, as in 1997, tactical voting in a determined effect to remove the Tories. A swing of 10% from the Liberals to Labour allowed neurosurgeon Dr Sam Galbraith to come from third place to win the seat from Michael Hirst with a majority of 2,452. Labour took 38.1 %, up by 12.5 % on 1987, the Tories took 33.4 %, down 3.1 %, with Lib Dem John Bannerman taking 21.4 %, down 7.4 %, and the SNP's Gil Paterson, now a MSP for Central Scotland, taking 7.1 %, down 2.1 %.

In 1992 Michael Hirst attempted to regain his seat. Although a collapse in the Liberal vote allowed him to increase his vote by 2.6%, Labour's vote increased by 4.1% and Dr Galbraith was returned with an increased majority of 3,162. Labour took 42.2 %, the Tories 35.9 %, Tom Chalmers increased the SNP vote by 5.3 % to 12.4 %, while Barbara Waterfield saw the Lib Dem vote collapse by 12.3 % to 9.1 %.

In 1997, the addition of part of Monklands West greatly aided Dr Galbraith and his notional majority was more than doubled to 6,948. Sir Michael Hirst was installed by John Major as Scottish Tory Party chairman but came a cropper in a tragic frenzy of Tory self-destruction just before the 1997 general election. Hirst decided to contest Eastwood in the place of Allan Stewart who had resigned following allegations about his personal life. Sir Michael too retired following allegations about his personal life. The new Conservative candidate in Strathkelvin & Bearsden was David Sharpe. His chances of unseating Dr Galbraith were considered to be minimal and indeed Sam Galbraith's vote rose to 26,278 with the Tory vote falling to 9,986, just 1,875 ahead of the SNP's Graeme McCormick. Labour took 52.9 %, the Tories were down 15.8 % to 20.1 %, the SNP were up by 3.9 % to 16.3 % and the Lib Dems were up 0.6 % to 9.7 %.

After the 1997 General election Sam Galbraith was appointed as a Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Scottish Office with responsibility for Health and was one of the few Labour MPs who decided to stand for the Scottish parliament. The Tory candidate was Charles Ferguson while the SNP selected Fiona McLeod, a librarian who was Deputy Convenor of Bearsden SNP and Convenor of Bearsden West Community Council.

In the Scottish election, Dr Galbraith polled 21,505 votes, the highest total of any candidate in the elections, and won the seat with a majority of 12,121 over the SNP's Fiona McLeod who was elected as a West of Scotland MP through the regional lists. As elsewhere when the sitting Labour MP was defending the seat, a distinct incumbency effect was seen with Sam Galbraith's vote at 50.7 % being down by just 2.2 % on his Westminster result. The SNP took 22.1 %, up by 5.8 %, with the Tories beaten into third place with 16.4 %, down 3.7 %, and the Lib Dems up 0.1 % to 9.8 %.

While the Scotsman had initially described Dr Galbraith as 'one of the most popular new Labour ministers', his popularity did not extend to health service workers with less money being spent on health under Labour than by the Tories. The Public Finance Initiative has become one of the major scandals of this parliament especially where it is being used for hospital funding and Dr Galbraith came under severe criticism from Unison and even the British Medical Association. Upon his election to the Scottish parliament he was given responsibility, not for health, but for Education where he presided over the SQA crisis and repeatedly refused to resign. To be fair to Dr Galbraith, he was responsible, but the crisis was as much the fault of the previous Education Ministers, Brian Wilson and Helen Liddell, who had forced through unnecessary reforms against the advice of teachers. When Henry McLeish became First Minister, he moved Dr Galbraith to Environment.

In March 2001, Dr Galbraith announced that he would be retiring, not only from Westminster, but from the Scottish Parliament due to health reasons. This meant that there will be a Scottish Parliamentary by-election in Strathkelvin & Bearsden on the same day as the Westminster election. The first blows were struck by the leadership as they banned Scotland's longest serving Euro MP, David Martin, a Vice President of the European Parliament, from standing in order to clear the way for a less illustrious candidate who could be assured of following London's orders to the letter.

For Westminster, Labour selected John Lyons of Unison. The SNP candidate was Calum Smith, the assistant to Roseanna Cunningham, then MP and MSP for Perth. The Tories selected Murray Roxburgh who stood in Glasgow Springburn in 1999. The Lib Dem candidate was Gordon Macdonald and the SSP selected Willie Telfer.
In June 2001, John Lyons was elected to the Westminster parliament with 46.4 % of the vote and an 11,717 majority over Lib Dem Gordon Macdonald with 18.2 %. In third place were the SNP with 16.1 %, followed by the Tories with 16.0 % and the SSP with 3.4 %.

For the Scottish parliamentary by-election which was held on the same day, Labour selected Brian Fitzpatrick, an advocate and former adviser to the late Donald Dewar. The SNP selected Janet Law, previously a Perthshire & Kinross councillor and a candidate at the 1999 European elections. The Lib Dems selected Charlie Morrison and the Tory candidate was Charles Ferguson. Also standing were Willie O'Neill for the SSP and Dr Jean Turner who was opposing the closure of Stobhill hospital.

The by-election provided a surprising result with Brian Fitzpatrick being elected as Labour MSP form Strathkelvin with 37.0 % of the vote, down by 13.7 % on 1999, and a majority of 7,829, down from 12,121 in 1999. In second place was Dr Jean Turner who polled 7,572 votes, 18.2 % of those who voted. Meanwhile, in England, another hospital campaigner had been elected as a Member of the Westminster parliament. The Lib Dems came third with 17.2 %, followed by the SNP with 15.5 %, and the Tories with 12.1 %.

The 2003 Scottish election should prove interesting as Dr Jean Turner is standing again. She is a 63 year old retired general practitioner who worked for over 25 years in Springburn, Glasgow. This time around Dr Turner is not standing alone, but as a member of the Local Health Concern party which was formed a month before the elections to combat plans to downgrade or close hospitals in Fife and Glasgow, with ex Labour Lord Provost Pat Lally standing as one of their candidates. Single issue candidates tend to do well in by-elections, but not at general elections. However, with the Labour-Lib Dem executive having failed in it's election pledge to reduce waiting lists and waiting times, and the election of a health campaigner as an MP in England a the 2001 Westminster election proves that health is an issue where the Labour and the Liberal Democrats are extremely vulnerable.

Fiona McLeod was born in 1957 in Glasgow and educated at Bearsden Academy. She has studied at Edinburgh, Glasgow and Strathclyde Universities, graduating with an MA (Hons) in Medieval and modern history and a diploma as a librarian. She worked as a librarian until she was elected in 1999 as West of Scotland's seventh MSP thanks to her fourth place on the SNP's regional list. In the parliament she was appointed Shadow Deputy Minister for Children & Sport by Alex Salmond and as Shadow Deputy Minister for Transport & Environment by John Swinney in September 2000. As she is ranked seventh in the SNP's regional list for the 2001 elections, her only chance of election will be if she could win Strathkelvin & Bearsden.

The Conservative candidate is Rory O'Brien, known as 'Rory the Tory', who contested Glasgow Pollok in 1999, coming fourth with 5.3 %. The Lib Dem candidate is Jo Swinson, while the SSP have decided not to contest the seat and have advised their supporters to vote for Dr Turner.

Assessment:

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 58
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 14.30 % from Labour to Scottish National Party

Rank on Conservative hit list: 39
Swing required for Conservative gain: 17.19 % from Labour to Conservative

Rank on Local Hospital Concern hit list: 1
Swing required for Local Hospital Concern gain: 9.41 % from Labour to Local Hospital Concern (based on 2001 by-election result)

7 th June 2001. Scottish parliamentary by-election

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
Labour	Brian Fitzpatrick	15,401	37.01 %	- 13.72 %
Save Stobhill Hospital	Dr Jean McGivern Turner	7,572	18.20 %	(+ 18.20 %)
Liberal Democrat	John Morrison	7,147	17.20 %	+ 7.42 %
Scottish National Party	Janet Law	6,457	15.52 %	- 6.64 %
Conservative	Charles Ferguson	5,037	12.10 %	- 4.26 %
Scottish Socialist Party	Willie O'Neill		%	%
Lab hold	Lab majority	7,829	18.81 %	- 9.78 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
Labour	Dr Sam Galbraith MP	21,505	50.73 %	- 2.13 %
Scottish National Party	Fiona McLeod	9,384	22.14 %	+ 5.82 %
Conservative	Charles Ferguson	6,934	16.36 %	- 3.73 %
Liberal Democrat	Anne Howarth	4,144	9.78 %	+ 0.04 %
Anti-Drug	Maxi Richards	423	1.00 %	+ 1.00 %
Lab win	Lab majority	12,121	28.59 %	- 4.18 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Party	Votes	%
Labour	16,721	39.45 %
Scottish National Party	9,753	23.01 %
Conservative & Unionist Party	7,300	17.22 %
Liberal Democrats	5,038	11.88 %
Scottish Green Party	1,218	2.87 %
Scottish Socialist Party	768	1.81 %
Pro Life Alliance	446	1.05 %
Socialist Labour Party	418	0.99 %
Canon Kenyon Wright	358	0.84 %
Scottish Unionist Party	231	0.54 %
Natural Law Party	74	0.17 %
Independent Labour Keep Scotland's Water Public	65	0.15 %
Lab maj	6,968	16.44 %

1 st May 1997 Westminster Election