Candidates and Constituency Assessments

The document produced by the Library shows that in the West of Scotland European constituency, for example, Labour would win nine seats on a first-past-the-post basis and consequently win none on a second ballot. Therefore, the votes of everyone who votes Labour in the second ballot - the largest single electoral bloc - will be entirely wasted.'
Ian Davidson MP, Hansard, 12 th January 1998.

Paisley South (West of Scotland Region)

	Cllr Bill Martin		Hugh Henry MSP
	Mark Jones		Cllr Eileen McCartin
	Frances Curran

In 1983, the town of Paisley was divided between two seats, Paisley North and South. The new Paisley South seat consisted of 61 % from Paisley, 30% from Renfrewshire West and 9% from Renfrewshire East. In the review for the 1997 election, there were minor changes between Paisley North and South.

Paisley, Scotland's largest town, is a once proud industrial centre fallen on hard times. Mills that once produced the world-famous 'Paisley pattern' now stand closed along with the former Talbot plant at Linwood. The new South seat includes the south of Paisley and the town of Johnstone.

Labour have held Paisley since 1945 against strong challenges from the Liberals in the 1960s and the SNP in the 1970s. The only blip was in the 1970s when John Robertson, winner of the 1961 by-election for Labour, defected to the Scottish Labour Party following the then Labour Government's back-down on devolution. Mr Robertson did not stand in 1979 and the seat was won by Labour's Allen Adams.

A third of Paisley South came from the massive Renfrewshire West seat which Labour's Norman Buchan had won from the Conservatives in 1964. In 1983, Renfrewshire West was reduced in size and renamed Renfrew West and Inverclyde. The new seat looked marginal and Mr Buchan preferred to contest Paisley South. It was a wise move as Renfrew West and Inverclyde was won by Mrs Anna McCurley for the Conservatives, with the Labour candidate coming third behind the SDP in an extremely closely fought contest.

Norman Buchan was elected as Labour MP for Paisley South in 1983 with a 6,529 majority over Liberal Mrs Elspeth Buchanan. Labour took 41.4 % of the vote, the Liberals 24.1 %, the Tories 20.7 % and the SNP 13.0 %.

In 1987 there was a massive 11.9% swing from the Liberals to Labour and Norman Buchan saw his majority rocket to 15,785. Labour took 56.2 % of the vote, while the three other parties scrambled for second place: the Liberals took 15.1 %, the Tories 14.7 % and the SNP 14.0 %.

Mr Buchan died in 1990 as did Mr Allen Adams, the MP for Paisley South. Labour held the by-elections on the same day, the 29 th November. The similarity of the two seats meant that the campaigns were fought as a unique double by-election. Although the SNP had come fourth in 1987, Jim Sillar's victory at Glasgow Govan and Alex Neil's 15% swing in Glasgow Central had ensured that the SNP were the main challengers to Labour. The SNP's Iain Lawson obtained an 11.8% swing from Labour to the SNP, but it was not nearly enough and Gordon McMaster became the new Labour MP for Paisley South with a majority of 5,030.

Gordon McMaster increased this to 9,549 in the 1992 General election when he again faced Iain Lawson. Labour took 50.6 %, the SNP 24.0 %, the Tories 15.8 % and the Lib Dems 9.1 %.

In 1997 Gordon McMaster saw his majority reach five figures - 12,750 over the SNP's Cllr Bill Martin. Labour took 57.5 %, the SNP 23.4 %, the Lib Dems 9.4 %, while the Tories fell to fourth place with 8.7 %.

Gordon McMaster was an leader of the local council (in the days before it went downhill) and was a Labour whip between 1992 and 1997. He was apparently a net surfer and he found these Scottish Politics Pages through a link from the SNP's home page. At a press conference on August 19 th 1996, along with John Maxton, MP for Glasgow Cathcart, he claimed that the predictions on these pages were 'a great embarrassment to the SNP and revealed the truth about the party's expectations for the General Election!' (See also Jack McConnell's press conference).

Mr McMaster's premature death in tragic circumstances sent shock waves through the Scottish political community and resulted in the 1997 Paisley South by election. Labour selected Douglas Alexander who had obtained the party's best ever by-election showing in Perth & Kinross since George Robertson had increased the Labour vote in Hamilton in 1978. With Renfrewshire Council doing a passable imitation of Monklands Mark II, Labour's strategy in Paisley South was simple - to hide their candidate from the media and he was soon dubbed the 'Invisible Man'. On the eve of the by-election, the Press Association were predicting a Labour majority of 5,000 over the Scottish National Party's Ian Blackford. On the night, Labour's majority was just 2,731, down from 12,750 for Gordon McMaster at the general election on 1 st May. The result represented an 11.25 % swing from Labour to the SNP with a turnout of 42.9 % - the third lowest in a Scottish by-election since 1945. Labour's strategy of boring the voters had paid off.

At the 2001 Westminster election, The SNP candidate was Cllr Brian Lawson, a computer systems consultant from Elderslie and a delegate to the SNP National Council. He represented the Gallowhill & Whitehaugh ward on Renfrewshire Council, which he held in 1999 with 48.1 % of the vote and a majority of 416 over Labour. Cllr Lawson is a member of Renfrewshire Council's Planning, Environmental Services, and Policy & Resources committees.. The Tory candidate was Andrew Cossar and the Lib Dems selected Brian O'Malley. The SSP candidate was Frances Curran. Patricia Graham stood for the ProLife Alliance and Terence O'Donnell as an Independent

In June 2001, Douglas Alexander was returned to Westminster with 58.4 % of the vote and a 11,910 majority over the SNP's Brian Lawson who polled 19.4 %. In third place were the Lib Dems with 10.4 %, followed by the Tories with 7.5 %, the SSP with 2.7 %, the ProLife Alliance with 1.1 % and an Independent with 0.4 %.

Douglas Alexander's sister Wendy was elected to neighbouring Paisley North in the Scottish election of 1999 and this New Labour political family has come to be known as 'the Alexander Sisters'. Since his election, Douglas Alexander, has remained a mysterious figure although he has written some articles under his pen name of Gordon Brown. Although Mr Alexander did not standing for the Scottish parliament, it was rumoured by some that he was Labour's campaign manager, although it is difficult to verify this as election watchers need to get up very early indeed to catch a glimpse of Britain's shyest species - the Invisible Man of Paisley. TV viewers were rewarded with a rare sighting of the Invisible Man on the BBC's election special for the Hamilton by-election. Douglas Alexander turned white and was left almost speechless when he heard that there would be a recount in the seat, which Labour had expected to hold with a large majority. Bill Tynan was finally elected with a majority of 556 over the SNP's Annabelle Ewing, down from 15,878. In the following by-election programmes Labour were represented by more experienced politicians such as Henry McLeish, First Minister of Scotland and John Reid, then Secretary of State for Scotland. Wee Douglas Alexander has followed his big sister's example and started to crawl up the Ministerial ladder, being appointed as Minister of State for the Cabinet office in the 2002 cabinet re-shuffle.

Labour's candidate for the Scottish Parliament in 1999 was the reverse of invisible. He was Cllr Hugh Henry, a former member of Militant and the leader of one of Scotland's most notorious councils - Renfrewshire where police were called in on several occasions to the rowdy council meetings.

Cllr Henry's arch-rival, Independent Councillor Paul Mack also stood for Paisley South. Mr Mack was previously the deputy leader of the Labour controlled Renfrew District Council and was expelled when he replaced a Labour council candidate who resigned at the last minute. Pilloried by Labour, Mr Mack suffered death threats for his stand against drugs in Paisley and was applauded by senior police officers for his stand against the dealers.

The SNP candidate was Cllr Bill Martin. The Tory candidate was Shiela Laidlaw while the Lib Dems selected Stuart Callison and Jackie Forrest stood for the Socialist Workers Party.

In the Scottish election there was a swing of 9.8 % from Labour to the SNP and Cllr Hugh Henry was elected with a majority of 4,495 over the SNP's Cllr Brian Lawson. The percentages were similar to those in the 1995 Westminster by-election with Labour taking 45.3 % of the vote, the SNP 30.7 %, the Lib Dems 9.7 % and the Tories 7.9 %. Independent Paul Mack took 4.2 % and the SWP polled 2.2 %.

Hugh Henry was born in Glasgow in 1952 and educated at St Mirin's Academy in Paisley. He studied at Glasgow University and Jordanhill College of Education before becoming an accountant, a teacher and then a social worker. Henry was also a graduate of one of Scotland's toughest political schools, Renfrewshire District where he was a councillor from 1984 until 1996 and was leader of troubled West Renfrewshire Council from 1995 until 1999. In November 2001, Jack McConnell appointed Henry as Deputy Minister for Health & Community Care. In November 2002 he was made Deputy Minister for Justice, replacing Dr Richard Simpson who resigned after allegedly calling striking fire fighters 'fascist bastards.' Despite his many years experience in local government, Hugh Henry is one of the boring speakers in the parliament and could send anybody to sleep.

The SNP candidate is Cllr Bill Martin who contested the seat at the 1997 general election, coming second with 23.4 %, and at the 1999 Scottish election when he increased the SNP by 7.3 % to 30.7 %. He was born in Paisley and educated at Camphill Senior Secondary and Paisley College of Technology. A member of the EIS, he joined the SNP in 1979 and is Convenor of Gleniffer Branch. A councillor since 1988, Bill Martin currently represents Glenborn North ward on Renfrewshire Council which he holds with a 359 majority over Labour.

The Tory candidate is Mark Jones. The Lib Dem candidate is Cllr Eileen McCartin, who came third with 9.4 %, 11.0 % at the 1997 Westminster election, with 11.0 % at the 1997 by-election.

The SSP candidate is Frances Curran who came sixth with 1.3 % at the 1997 Westminster by-election and fifth with 2.7 % at the 2001 Westminster election.

Assessment:

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 28
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 7.33 % from Labour to Scottish National Party

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	%
Labour	Cllr Hugh Henry	13,899	45.34 %	- 12.17 %
Scottish National Party	Cllr Bill Martin	9,404	30.68 %	+ 7.30 %
Liberal Democrat	Stuart Callison	2,974	9.70 %	+ 0.33 %
Conservative	Shiela Laidlaw	2,433	7.94 %	- 0.73 %
Independent	Paul Mack	1,273	4.15 %	+ 4.15 %
Socialist Workers Party	Jackie Forrest	673	2.20 %	+ 2.20 %
Lab win	Lab majority	4,495	14.66 %	- 19.47 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Party	Votes	%
Labour	13,418	43.83 %
Scottish National Party	9,042	29.54 %
Liberal Democrats	3,045	9.95 %
Conservative & Unionist Party	2433	7.95 %
Scottish Socialist Party	719	2.35 %
Scottish Green Party	686	2.24 %
Socialist Labour Party	475	1.55 %
Pro Life Alliance	301	0.98 %
Canon Kenyon Wright	235	0.77 %
Scottish Unionist Party	154	0.50 %
Independent Labour Keep Scotland's Water Public	68	0.22 %
Natural Law Party	37	0.12 %
Lab maj	4,376	14.29 %

6 th November 1997 Westminster By-Election

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
Labour	Douglas Alexander	10,346	44.1 (-13.4 %)
Scottish National Party	Ian Blackford	7,615	32.5 % (+9.1 %)
Liberal Democrat	Cllr Eileen McCartin	2,582	11.0 % (+1.6 %)
Conservative	Shiela Lawson	1,643	7.0 % (-1.7 %)
Pro Life Alliance	John Deighan	578*	2.5 %
Scottish Socialist Alliance	Frances Curran	306*	1.3 % (+0.9 %)
Scottish Independent Labour, Justified and Ancient	Charles McLauchlan	155*	0.7 %
Socialist Labour Party	Chris Herriot	153*	0.7 %
Natural Law Party	Kenneth Blair	57*	0.2 %
Lab hold	Lab majority	2,731	11.6 % (-22.5 %)

1 st May 1997 Westminster General Election