Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'Jim Wallace has shown himself and his party are not to be trusted. He either conducted the election campaign in bad faith or he is now open to the accusation of being a naive dupe. Which is it?.'
Roseanna Cunningham MSP on the Lib Dem's tuition fees U-turn, 19 th May 1999.

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (North East Scotland Region)

	Cllr Ian Angus		Kevin Hutchens
	David Davidson MSP		Mike Rumbles MSP
	Alan Manley

In the 1983 boundary review Kincardine & Deeside was formed with 41 % of its voters from North Angus & Means, 32 % from Aberdeen South and 28 % from Aberdeenshire West. In 1997, Westhill, Kemnay and Alford were added from Gordon along with the Deeside towns of Braemar, Ballater, Aboyne and Banchory and the Kincardine towns of Portlethen and Stonehaven.

The Tories held the old West Aberdeenshire seat (most of which is now in Gordon) until 1966 when it was won by James Davidson for the Liberals. Davidson retired in 1970 and West Aberdeenshire was defended by Laura Grimond, the wife of Liberal leader and Orkney & Shetland MP Jo Grimond. However the seat was won back for the Tories by an Aden war veteran Colonel Colin 'Mad Mitch' Mitchell who, like his predecessor, only served one term before retiring in 1974.

In February 1974, West Aberdeenshire was held by Russell, later Sir Russell Fairgrieve for the Conservatives who remained as MP until his retiral in 1983.

In 1983 there were major boundary changes. The biggest part of the new Kincardine & Deeside seat came from North Angus & Mearns, although a significant contribution from Aberdeen South and West Aberdeenshire. North Angus & Mearns had been held by the Conservatives from 1950 onwards and in 1964, Alick Buchanan-Smith became the MP. Buchanan-Smith was highly respected by political friends and opponents. He was a man of principle who resigned as shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in protest against Margaret Thatcher's anti Scottish policies. He held North Angus & Mearns until 1983 and the successor seat of Kincardine & Deeside until his death in 1991.

In the 1987 election, the Liberals were only 2,000 votes and 4% behind the Tories and in the November 1991 by-election their candidate, Nicol Stephen, won the seat with a 7,800 majority. This result gave the Scottish Liberal Democrats 10 MPs , one more than the Tory party which were governing Scotland. At home, this opened renewed discussion of a constitution which allowed a minority party to govern the country against the wishes of the vast majority of the population. In the newspapers, cartoons compared Ian Lang to a Victorian Colonial Governor unperturbed by the revolting natives. However, south of the border, the Tories' unpopularity in Scotland had lost its power to shock. Unlike the SNP victory in Govan two years before, Kincardine & Deeside was seen as just another Liberal by-election victory and talk of a Constitutional Crisis was dismissed as mere 'posturing' by Tory Minister David Mellor.

Of the 1991 by-election candidates, only the Conservative J.M.M. Humphery did not go on to a parliamentary career. While the Liberal Democrat Nichol Stephen served at Westminster for 154 days, he returned as MSP for Aberdeen South in 1999 and is currently a junior minister. Allan Macartney, the SNP candidate was elected as SNP MEP for North East Scotland in 1994 and held the seat until his untimely death in 1998, while Malcolm Savidge was elected as MP for Aberdeen North in 1994. Only poor old 'Humphery Dumphery' was forgotten - but such is the fate of many Scottish Tories in the current political climate.

In the 1992 general election, the Conservatives made an unexpected recovery, winning Aberdeen South from Labour. In Kincardine & Deeside, Tory George Kynoch easily won the seat back, doubling their majority of 2,063 (4.4 %) in 1987 to 4,498 (8.6 %) in 1992.

For the 1997 election, a new seat called 'Deeside & the Howes' was proposed. In the 1994 Regional elections, the Liberals obtained 35.7% in these boundaries compared to only 24.4% for the Conservatives and 17% for the SNP. Although the Liberal vote dipped in the 1995 Unitary Elections they were still ahead of the Tories and well placed to win the new constituency.

In fact, the new constituency was not 'Deeside & the Howes' but West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. It can sometimes be difficult to find in alphabetic constituency lists as it is also referred to as Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Kincardine & West Aberdeenshire or Kincardine & Aberdeenshire West. In such cases, short constituency names such as Angus and Gordon suddenly seem more appealing.

For some reason Nicol Stephen did not stand in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine in 1997 but instead contested neighbouring Aberdeen South. He lost (beating the Tories into third place) in the Westminster election, but won the seat two years later in the Scottish general election. In 1997 the Lib Dems selected a local landowner, Sir Robert Smith, a cousin of Alick Buchannan-Smith, to contest this West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. Sir Robert Smith's grandfather, the first baronet, was MP for Aberdeenshire & Kincardineshire Central between 1924 and 1945.

In 1997, every Conservative seat in Scotland fell and Sir Robert Smith won West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine for the Liberal Democrats with a 2,662 (6.1 %) majority over Tory George Kynoch.

The local Lib Dem MP had not become a household name by the time of the 2001 Westminster elections. He did however, gain notoriety in early 2001 when he voted on the Hunting bill for England & Wales which did not concern his own constituents here in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. Sir Robert, unsurprisingly for an aristocratic country squire, voted in favour of the torture of wild animals for human pleasure. One wonders what Sir Robert would have to say if somebody set a pack of famished hounds on him in the pursuit of pleasure?

This seat was the third most marginal in Scotland at the 2001 Westminster election and the seat where the Tories had the best chances of breaking their duck in Scotland. However, the Tories had two factors against them - their poor poll ratings and the fact that they no longer have many well known faces standing for them. George Kynoch is one of those who has retired from politics and in 2001 the Tories fielded West Lothian's only Tory Cllr, Tom Kerr, who represented the Kingsfield ward. Cllr Kerr stood in Linlithgow in 1997, coming third with 12.5 % of the vote.

The SNP candidate was John Green who retired at the end of December 2000 as an executive in a blue chip Communications company which specialises in Organisation Development across Emerging markets. Labour selected Kevin Hutchens and the SSP candidate was Alan Manley.

Sir Robert Smith was returned to Westminster in 2001 with 43.5 % of the vote and a 4,821 majority over Tory Tom Kerr with 30.8 %. Labour took third place with 12.3 %, just 35 votes ahread of the SNP with 12.2 %, while the SSP polled 1.1 %.

Despite the fact that the Liberal Democrats proclaimed that they were the party of home rule, only two of their MPs were interested in standing for the Scottish Parliament, and Sir Robert Smith was not one of them. The Lib Dems therefore selected Mike Rumbles, a former army officer and business manager who stood in Aberdeen North in 1997, coming fourth with 14.1 % of the vote. His Tory rival was Ben Wallace, a 28 year old ex-captain in the Scots Guards who had worked for an advertising agency and as a ski instructor.

In the 1999 Scottish election, Lib Dem Mike Rumbles obtained a 2,289 (6.4 %) majority over Tory Ben Wallace, who made it to the mound as the North East Scotland MSP thanks to his second place on the Tory regional list. Both the Lib Dem and Tory votes fell in the 1999 Scottish election, by 5.2 % to 34.9 % and by 5.4 % to 29.5 % respectively. The SNP were represented by Maureen Watt, daughter SNP MP for Banff, Hamish Watt who represented Banff from 1974 to 1979. She increased the SNP vote by 8.4 % to 21.5 %, while Labour's Gordon Guthrie increased their vote by 4.0 % to 13.0 %.

In the regional list vote the Consrvatives 'won' the seat with a 1,075 majority over the Lib Dems. The Tories took 28.4 %, compared to 25.4 % for the Lib Dems, 24.1 % for the SNP and 16.1 % for Labour. In the 1999 European elections, the Tories again 'won' the seat, this time with a 1,005 majority over the SNP, while the Lib Dems were relegated to third place. The Tories took 32.1 % of the vote compared to 25.3 % for the SNP, 19.5 % for the Lib Dems and 11.3 % for Labour.

Mike Rumbles was born in South Shields in 1956 and educated at St James' School in Hebburn. He studied at Durham University and the University of Wales before serving in the army as an officer. Before his election he worked at Aberdeen University. He is Convenor of the Parlimentary Standards Committee.

David Davidson was born in Edinburgh in 1943 and educated at Trinity Academy. He graduated from Heriot Watt University as a pharmacist before studying at Manchester Business School. A farmer and manager of a number of pharmacies, David Davidson was also a Tory Councillor on Stirling council from 1995 and 1999. He contested Banff & Buchan in 1999, coming second with 17.0 %, and was elected as North East Scotland's first regional MSP thanks to his first place on the Tory list. In the parliament he was Conservative Deputy Spokesman on Economy, Industry and Finance, sharing the post with Nick Johnstone, who resigned from the parliament in August 2001.

The SNP have selected Cllr Ian Angus, who has been prominent in Aberdeenshire politics for may years. The Labour candidate is Kevin Hutchens who came third with 12.3 % here at the 2001 Westminster election. The SSP have selected Alan Manley.

Assessment:

Rank on Conservative hit list: 4
Swing required for Conservative gain: 3.20 % from Liberal Democrat to Conservative

Rank on SNP hit list: 27
Swing required for SNP gain: 7.19 % from Liberal Democrat to Scottish National Party

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency vote

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
Liberal Democrat	Mike Rumbles	12,838	35.92 %	- 5.16 %
Conservative	Ben Wallace	10,549	29.52 %	- 5.40 %
Scottish National Party	Maureen Watt	7,699	21.54 %	+ 8.48 %
Labour	Gordon Guthrie	4,650	13.01 %	+ 3.93 %
Lib/Dem win	Lib/Dem majority	2,289	6.40 %	+ 0.34 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list vote

Party	Votes	%
Conservative & Unionist Party	10,166	28.44 %
Liberal Democrats	9,091	25.43 %
Scottish National Party	8,626	24.13 %
Labour	5,760	16.11 %
Scottish Green Party	1,140	3.19 %
Hamish Watt	319	0.89 %
Socialist Labour Party	268	0.75 %
Scottish Socialist Party	140	0.39 %
Sleaze Buster	138	0.39 %
Natural Law Party	103	0.29 %
Con maj	1,075	3.01 %

1 st May 1997 Westminster Election