Candidates and Constituency Assessments

'Referring to the US Declaration of Independence, Sir Sean told his American audience: 'Almost half of the signatories to your declaration were Scots - and I can't wait for you to return the compliment.' BBC Scotland News, 6 th April 2001.

Glasgow Rutherglen (Glasgow Region)

	Anne McLaughlin		Janis Hughes MSP
	Gavin Brown		Robert Brown MSP
	Bill Bonnar

The boundary changes in Glasgow Rutherglen have been minor in the 1997 review. Until 1983, the seat was known simply as Rutherglen and was one of the oldest burghs in Scotland, with a charter dating from 1126. In the 1970s the burgh was incorporated into Glasgow and the parliamentary constituency became a Glasgow seat in the 1983 boundary changes.

The Conservatives held Rutherglen until the 1964 by-election. At the 1959 general election the Tories had taken 52.1 % of the vote in Rutherglen compared to 47.9 % for Labour. The by-election was a straight two-party fight and there was a 7.6 % swing to Labour from the Tories which allowed Labour's Gregor Mackenzie to take the seat. Gregor Mackenzie became Minister of State at the Scottish Office with responsibility for Industry. He was elected in Rutherglen no less than eight times before handing over to Tommy McAvoy in 1983.

In Rutherglen, like many other central belt constituencies, the only real battle in recent years has been for second place. By 1974, the Conservatives had been beaten into third place by the SNP and in the October election Gregor Mackenzie was elected with a majority of 7,356 over the SNP's Ian Bayne.

However by 1979, the Tories had regained second place with 10,523 votes compared to 18,546 for Gregor Mackenzie. The surprise in that election was the good showing by the Liberals, whose candidate, Cllr Robert Brown increased his vote from 2,424 in October 1974 to 7,315 in 1979.

In 1983 the seat was renamed Glasgow Rutherglen, with 74 % coming from the old Rutherglen constituency. In addition, 15 % came from Glasgow Cathcart and 11 % from Glasgow Queen's Park which had been abolished. As expected, Gregor Mackenzie held Glasgow Rutherglen, with a majority of 9,126. The party in second place changed for the third time in a row. This time it was Liberal Robert Brown who took 122,384 votes (27.8 %) compared to 48.3 % for Labour, 18.0 % for the Tories and 5.5 % for the SNP.

In 1987, Gregor Mackenzie retired and was replaced by Tommy McAvoy who was co-sponsored by the Co-operative party. Tommy McAvoy took 56.0 % of the vote, up 7.7 % on 1983, to give him a 13,995 majority over Robert Brown. The Liberals took 24.4 %, down 3.4 % on 1983, while the Tories fell to 11.5 % and the SNP took 8.1 %.

In 1992, Tommy McAvoy was elected for the second time in Glasgow Rutherglen with 55.4 % of the vote and a majority of 15,270. There was disappointment for the Lib Dems. Robert Brown did not stand and their vote crashed by 13.1 % to take them from a good second place to fourth. The Tories moved back into second place for the first time since 1979 with 16.9 %. The SNP's John Higgens increased their vote by 8.2 % to 16.3 %, taking them to within 222 votes of the Tories.

In 1997, for Tommy McAvoy, it was business as usual. He was elected for the third time in Glasgow Rutherglen with 57.5 % of the vote and a majority of 15,007 which was only a few votes less than those for all the other parties. The second place changed once more, this time being won by the SNP's Cllr Iain Gray with 15.3 %. Robert Brown stood once again for the Lib Dems and saw a slight increase in their vote by 3.3 % to 14.6 %, 256 votes behind the SNP, against a national trend which saw the Lib Dem vote fall by 6.3 %. For the Tories, it was a disaster and their vote slumped by 7.6 %, taking them into single figures, 9.3 %, in a seat which they had held until 1964.

Tommy McAvoy was back to contest Glasgow Rutherglen for the 2001 general election. He currently hold the office of Comptroller of Her Majesty's Household, (which actually means government whip). He is described by Byron Criddle as 'among the big Scottish contingent of Labour MPs he provides some of the more stolidly unobtrusive ballast.' In 1994 Tommy McAvoy denied press claims that he had not made a single speech in the House of Commons during 1993.

For the Scottish election, Labour was represented by Janis Hughes, health service administrator and member of the Scottish executive. The SNP candidate was Tom Chalmers, a solicitor who came third in the Labour/Conservative marginal of Strathkelvin & Bearsden in the 1992 general election when he increased the SNP vote by 5.3 %. Tom Chalmers was also SNP candidate for Glasgow in the 1994 European elections, coming second with 25.6 % of the vote and more recently contested the Scottish Parliament seat of Glasgow Anniesland in November 2000.

The Labour vote fell by 11.2 % and Janis Hughes was elected with a 7,287 majority over the SNP's Tom Chalmers. Labour took 46.3 %, the SNP 21.2 % (up 5.9 %) and the Lib Dems 20.0 % (up 5.4 %). Robert Brown was finally rewarded after 25 years of electoral contests. Although he only came third with 20.0 % of the vote, he was elected as the sixth Glasgow region MSP due to being first on the Lib Dem list.

Labour MSP Janis Hughes was born in Glasgow in 1958 and educated at Queen's Park School and Glasgow School of nursing. She worked in the health service from 1980 until her election in 1999. She has not made a great impact in the chamber of the Scottish Parliament.

Robert Brown MSP was born in Newcastle in 1946 and educated at Gordons School in Huntly. He obtained an LLB at Aberdeen University and worked as a lawyer. He was a Glasgow District councillor from 1977 until 1992 and stood in five Westminster elections in Rutherglen in October 1974, 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1997 and the Scottish parliamentary election in 1999 where he was elected as a Glasgow Region MSP. Robert Brown has made headlines, except when one of his internal memos to the Lib Dems was leaked to the media. It revealed that Brown thought that the Lib Dem's policy on education in Scotland and the rest of the UK was incoherent, but that he believed the public would be stupid enough to fall for it.

The SNP candidate is Anne McLaughlin who contested Rutherglen in the 2001 Westminster election, coming second with 14.2 %. The SSP candidate is Bill Bonar who contested Glasgow Anniesland in the 1997 Westminster election, coming sixth with 0.7 % and Glasgow Rutherglen in the 2001 Westminster election, coming fifth with 4.6 %.

The Tory candidate is Gavin Brown.

Assessment:

Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 53
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 12.55 % from Labour to Scottish National Party

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Constituency result

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%	% change
	Labour	Janis Hughes	13,442	46.31 %	-11.21 %
	Scottish National Party	Tom Chalmers	6,155	21.21 %	+ 5.94 %
	Liberal Democrat	Robert Brown	5,798	19.98 %	+ 5.43 %
	Conservative	Iain Stewart	2,315	7.98 %	- 1.28 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	William Bonnar	832	2.87 %	+ 2.16 % %
	Socialist Labour	James Nisbet	481	1.66 %	+ 1.66 %
	Lab win	Lab majority	7,287	25.10 %	- 17.15 %

6 th May 1999 Holyrood Election - Regional list result

Logo	Party	Votes	%
	Labour	12,862	44.32 %
	Scottish National Party	6,912	23.81 %
	Liberal Democrats	4,028	13.99 %
	Conservative & Unionist Party	2,046	7.05 %
	Scottish Socialist Party	1,086	3.74 %
	Scottish Green Party	701	2.42 %
	Socialist Labour Party	651	2.24 %
	Scottish Unionist Party	362	1.25 %
	Pro Life Alliance	252	0.87 %
	Communist Party of Britain	40	0.14 %
	Natural Law Party	29	0.10 %
	Socialist Party of Great Britain	25	0.09 %
	Humanist Party	22	0.08 %
	Bridget McGeechan, The People Choice	8	0.03 %
	Lab maj	5,950	20.50 %

1 st May 1997 Westminster Election

Logo	Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Tom McAvoy	20,430	57.52%
	Scottish National Party	Cllr Iain Gray	5,423	15.27%
	Liberal Democrat	Robert Brown	5,167	14.55%
	Conservative	David Campbell-Bannerman	3,288	9.26%
	Ind Lab	George Easton	812	2.29%
	Scottish Socialist Alliance	Rosie Kane	251	0.71%
	Referendum	Julia Kerr	150	0.42%
	Lab hold	Lab majority	15,007	42.25%

Links

• Anne McLaughlin (Scottish National Party)

• Gavin Brown (Conservative)

• Glasgow Rutherglen and Robert Brown MSP (Lib Dem)