 | 'Margaret Jamieson Lab, Kilmarnock and Loudoun: Since capturing the seat for her native town, she has made scant impact in the chamber but will no doubt claim some of the credit locally for the decision to proceed with the M77 extension.' Murray Ritchie, Robbie Dinwoodie and Frances Horsburgh in the Herald, 15 th December 1999. |  |
 |
Cllr Daniel Coffey |  |
Margaret Jamieson MSP |
 |
Robin James Traquair |  |
Ian Gibson |
 | Colin Rutherford |  | Lyndsay McIntosh MSP |
| Ind | May Anderson |
Despite what may be implied by its name, the boundary of Kilmarnock and Loudoun has remained unchanged for longer than any other mainland constituency. In the 1983 boundary review, the only change was to the name, which was altered from Kilmarnock to Kilmarnock & Loudoun. In the 1997 review not even the name was changed.
Kilmarnock & Loudoun has been held by Labour since 1945. For more than 30 years this seat was represented by the formidable Willie Ross, who was rumoured to frighten even Harold Wilson. He was the longest ever serving Secretary of State for Scotland, being in office from 1964 until 1970 and again from 1974 to 1976. Andrew Marr described him as 'a stern-faced and authoritarian Presbyterian conservative who ran the country like a personal fiefdom for Harold Wilson'. Willie Ross was the ultimate Unionist and to him the terms 'devolution' and 'independence' were anathema. It was Ross who invented the term 'Tartan Tories' to describe the Scottish National Party, a jibe which is ironic now that Tony Blair's New Labour have adopted policies which can only be described as pure Thatcherism.
Kilmarnock was a safe Labour seat and Willie Ross was never seriously threatened. Even in October 1974, he was returned with a 7,529 majority over the Scottish National Party's Alistair MacInnes who contested the seat four times.
In 1979, Mr Ross retired and was elevated to the House of Lords as Lord Marnock. He was replaced by William McKelvey, a Dundonian who had dreamed of adoption as candidate for either Dundee East or West until a new Labour Party ruling barring certain party officials from standing in their own constituencies dashed his hopes. Mr McKelvey has represented Kilmarnock & Loudoun since 1979 and has been a popular and respected MP with a high personal vote.
Until the last election, this was a safe Labour seat and the real battle was for second place - obtained by the Conservatives in February 1974, 1979, 1983 (narrowly ahead of the SDP) and 1987 and by the SNP in October 1974 and in 1992.
Although the SNP came second here in October 1974 with 30% of the vote they fell back to a fourth place 9% by 1983. Since then, the rise in the SNP's vote has been meteoric. In 1987, George Leslie, veteran of seven previous general, European and by election campaigns more than doubled the SNP percentage vote to come a close third behind Tory candidate Mrs A.K. Bates.
In the last general election the SNP candidate was Alex Neil. Mr Neil was once Labour's Scottish research officer but left with Jim Sillars to found the Scottish Labour Party in 1975, and, like Jim Sillars, gravitated to the Scottish National Party. He is presently vice-convenor for policy. Alex Neil's electoral debut was in the 1989 Glasgow Central by-election, which helped to firmly establish the SNP as the second party of Scottish Politics.
In 1992 there was an 8.1 % swing from Labour to the Scottish National Party. Alex Neil increased the SNP vote in Kilmarnock & Loudoun by a further 12 % to take second place less than 7,000 votes behind Mr McKelvey. Another swing on the lines of 1992 would give Alex Neil a majority of 4,000 over Labour.
Since the 1992 general election, there had been three hotly contested electoral battles between the Scottish National Party and Labour. In the 1992 District Council elections the SNP went on to take 39.91% of the vote to Labour's 37.90% in Kilmarnock & Loudoun, while in the 1994 Regional Council elections Labour obtained 45.95% to the SNP's 41.19%. In the 1995 Unitary Council elections, Labour took 46.81% to the SNP's 43.99%. Despite their large opinion poll lead, Labour were punching far below this level in real elections and the Labour vote had fallen by over 10% in the 19 local government by-elections in 1996.
In the run up to the 1997 General election, few people really believed that Labour's lead in the opinion polls would be transformed into real votes. There had been disappointment before in 1992 when the polls had got their predictions completely wrong and the sweetness of victory swiftly turned into the bitter taste of defeat and five more years in the political wilderness. Quite rightly, Labour were taking nothing for granted in Scotland and were worried that the loss of a few seats in Scotland to the SNP might rob them of victory in Britain.
The seats which Labour felt were most at risk to the SNP were Glasgow Govan, Western Isles, Dundee East, Ochil, all which had been held in earlier forms by the SNP, and Kilmarnock & Loudoun where the SNP were neck and neck with Labour in the local elections. Labour's nervousness about losing these seats can be judged by the extraordinary events on 19 th August 1996. Then Scottish Labour Party General Secretary Jack McConnell took press photographers and TV cameras to an Internet cafe in Glasgow to highlight a supposed 'gaffe' on the SNP's server which showed that their leadership had given up hope of winning Kilmarnock and Loudoun.
In fact, the analysis which McConnell quoted was nothing to do with the SNP hierarchy, but was an independent one by Scottish Politics. Indeed, far from predicting that the SNP would not challenge in Kilmarnock & Loudoun, the constituency assessment had not yet been written!
What Mr McConnell did succeed in 'revealing' was that Labour were terrified that they might lose seats like Kilmarnock & Loudoun and were desperately clutching at any straw which might indicate the contrary. This appeared to be confirmed by Labour's deputy leader Basher Prescott including Kilmarnock & Loudoun in a tour of 'marginal constituencies' in the summer.
In the event, the Labour landslide throughout Britain was on a far bigger scale than anybody, even the opinion polls, were predicting, with clear evidence of massive tactical voting in order to get rid of the Tories. Although Alex Neil increased the SNP vote by 3.8 %, the Labour vote increased by 5.1 % giving the new Labour MP, Des Brown a majority of 7,256, slightly up on the 6,979 achieved by Willie McKelvie in 1992.
In the 1999 Scottish parliamentary elections, the SNP's Alex Neil once more contested the seat against Kilmarnock-born Margaret Jamieson, a cook and UNISON official. The swing of 4.1 % to the SNP was not quite enough to overturn Labour and Ms Jamieson, with 44.1 % was elected with a majority of 2,760 over Alex Neil with 37.1 % of the vote. Alex Neil, first on the SNP list was elected as the first Central Regional list MSP, while Tory Lyndsay McIntosh, who took 11.7 % in Kilmarnock & Loudoun, was elected in fourth place as a Central Scotland MSP thanks to her first place ranking on the Conservative list.
In 2000, after 10 years as SNP leader (National Convenor), Alex Salmond MP MSP stood down. The SNP leadership was contested by John Swinney, MP & MSP for North Tayside (who held the post of Senior Vice Convenor or Deputy Leader) and Alex Neil, MSP for Central Scotland, the SNP's Executive Vice Convenor for Policy. Despite media hopes that the election would cause a split in the SNP, as in 1990 after a amicable campaign, John Swinney was elected as paty leader with 547 votes (67.6 %) compared to 262 (32.4 %) for Alex Neil. Following the election, Alex Neil, who had been Shadow Minister for Social Security (a reserved matter) requested, and was given the post of Convenor Enterprise & Life Long Learning Committee.
Margaret Jamieson MSP is once more standing as Labour candidate for Kilmarnock & Loudoun. This time she will be facing a new SNP candidate, Cllr Daniel Coffey, a veteran local councillor and member of the SNP National Executive.
Lyndsay McIntosh was born in 1955 in Glasgow and educated at Duncanrig Secondary School, Langside College, Dundee College opf Technology and Dundee College of Commerce. She has worked as a legal secretary, in the civil service and as a business consultant. Lyndsay McIntosh is Tory deputy spokesperson on Home Affairs (We are not sure if this means that McIntosh is the spokesperson for John Major and Edwina Curry). She was the only Tory Central Scotland MSP elected in 1999 but was extremely unlikely to be re-elected in 2003 as she has dropped to third place on the Conservative regional list. On the 1 st April 2003, Lyndsay MacIntosh became the second Tory MSP to defect to the Scottish People's Alliance. The previous day, Keith Harding, Tory MSP for Mid Scotland & Fife, had defected to the new party. The new Tory candidate is Robin James Traquair who will face his predecessor Ms McIntosh who is standing here for the SPA.
The Lib Dem candidate is Ian Gibson while the SSP have selected Colin Rutherford.
After Dundee West, Aberdeen North, Ochil, and Glasgow Govan, this is the Labour seat most at risk to the SNP. The 3.5 % swing which the SNP would require to take this seat is well within the current opinion poll ratings and Margaret Jamieson cannot be sure of being returned to the Scottish Parliament after 1 st May 2003.
Assessment:
Rank on Scottish National Party hit list: 6
Swing required for Scottish National Party gain: 3.51 % from Labour to Scottish National Party
| Logo | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Labour | Margaret Jamieson | 17,345 | 44.08 % | - 5.74 % |
|
Scottish National Party | Alex Neil | 14,585 | 37.07 % | + 2.55 % |
|
Conservative | Lyndsay McIntosh | 4,589 | 11.66 % | + 0.85 % |
|
Liberal Democrat | John Stewart | 2,830 | 7.19 % | + 3.20 % |
|
Lab win | Lab majority | 2,760 | 7.01 % | - 8.29 % |
| Logo | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Labour | 14,649 | 37.22 % |
|
Scottish National Party | 13,259 | 33.69 % |
|
Conservative & Unionist Party | 4,874 | 12.38 % |
|
Liberal Democrats | 2,713 | 6.89 % |
 |
Socialist Labour Party | 1,256 | 3.19 % |
 |
Scottish Green Party | 788 | 2.00 % |
 |
Member of Parliament for Falkirk West | 632 | 1.61 % |
|
Scottish Socialist Party | 618 | 1.57 % |
 |
Scottish Unionist Party | 190 | 0.48 % |
 |
ProLife Alliance | 122 | 0.31 % |
 |
Natural Law Party | 88 | 0.22 % |
| Others: Scottish Families & Pensioners Party Independent Progressive (Breakdown not available) |
170 | 0.43 % | |
|
Lab maj | 1,390 | 3.53 % |
| Logo | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Labour | Desmond Browne | 23,621 | 49.82% |
|
Scottish National Party | Alex Neil | 16,365 | 34.52% |
|
Conservative | Douglas Taylor | 5,125 | 10.81% |
|
Liberal Democrat | John Stewart | 1,891 | 3.99% |
 |
Referendum | William Sneddon | 284 | 0.60% |
|
Natural Law | William Gilmour | 123 | 0.26% |
| Lab hold | Lab majority | 7,256 | 15.30% |
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