YouGov Opinion Poll

'An opinion poll for Channel 4 News makes bad reading for the Labour party north of the border today. Ahead of May's elections to the Scottish parliament, Labour has now fallen narrowly behind the Scottish Nationalists, threatening the Labour-Libdem administration of Jack McConnell'.
Gary Gibbon in Channel Four News, 9 th January 2007.

YouGov polls

Who would you vote for at the Scottish Parliamentary election?

Party		Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Scottish Green Party	Scottish Socialist Party	Solidarity	Others
Date	Vote
10 th September 2006	Constituency	30 %	29 %	14 %	18 %	5 %	1.5 %	1.5 %	2 %
	Regional	27 %	29 %	14 %	15 %	8 %	2 %	3 %	2 %
	MSPs	42 (- 8)	38 (+ 11)	17 (- 1)	19 (+ 2)	9 (+ 2)	4 (- 6)
	1176 Scottish adults were surveyed between 5 th and 7th September 2006. Published 10 th September 2006. I am grateful to Margo Biagi for forwarding polling figures for the smaller parties, which were provided by Peter Kellner, Chairman of YouGov plc.
23 rd November 2006	Constituency	29 %	36 %	14 %	16 %	%	%	%	%
	Regional	26 %	30 %	15 %	15 %	8 %	3 %	1 %	3 %
	MSPs	36 (-14)	49 (+ 23)	16 (- 2)	17 (+ 0)	6 (- 1)	5 (- 5)
	1034 Scottish adults were surveyed between 15th and 20th November 2006. Published 23 rd November 2006
9 th January 2007	Constituency	31 %	33 %	14 %	14 %	5 %	1 %	1 %	3 %
	Regional	28 %	33 %	15 %	11 %	7 %	1 %	1 %	3 %
	MSPs (SNP analysis)	39 (- 11)	44 (+ 17)	18 (+ 0)	17 (+ 0)	7 (+ 0)	0 (- 6)	4 (+ 0)
	MSPs (John Curtice analysis)	42 (- 8)	45 (+ 18)	18 (+ 0)	14 (- 3)	7 (+ 0)	3 (- 7)
	1061 Scottish adults were surveyed between 4 th and 8 th January 2007. Published 9 th January 2007
14 th January 2007	Constituency	29 %	35 %	13 %	18 %	6 %
	Regional	30 %	32 %	14 %	14 %	10 %
	MSPs	43 (- 7)	44 (+ 17)	18 (+ 0)	18 (+ 1)	2 (- 5)	4 (- 6)
	1,005 Scottish adults were surveyed between ? and ?. Published 14 th January 2007
14 th March 2007	Constituency	%	%	%	%	%
	Regional	%	%	%	%	%
	MSPs	40 (- 10)	46 (+ 19)	17 (- 1)	23 (+ 6)	3 (- 14)
	Unpublished poll for the SNP. Some details leaked.
30 th March 2007	Constituency	29 %	35 %	14 %	13 %	9 %
	Regional	27 %	33 %	12 %	15 %	14 %
	MSPs	39 (- 11)	46 (+ 19)	18 (+ 0)	18 (+ 1)	5 (- 2)	3 (- 7)
	1,085 Scottish adults were surveyed between 23 rd and 28 th March 2007. Published 30 th March 2007.
2 nd April 2007	Constituency	27 %	36 %	13 %	16 %	8 %
	Regional	26 %	33 %	14 %	14 %	7 %	3 %	1 %	3 %
	MSPs	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
	YouGov poll for the SNP, fieldwork 27-30 March, sample 1,064.
22 nd April 2007	Constituency	30 %	37 %	14 %	15 %	4 %
	Regional	28 %	35 %	13 %	13 %	8 %
	MSPs	42	50	16	18	2	0	0	1
	YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, fieldwork 18-20 April, sample 1,027.
26 th April 2007	Constituency	30 %	39 %	13 %	15 %	4 %
	Regional	27 %	31 %	13 %	11 %	9 %	9 %
	MSPs	39	44	17	17	9	3
	YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph, fieldwork ? to ?April, sample ?.
29 th April 2007	Constituency	30 %	38 %	12 %	15 %	4 %
	Regional	27 %	32 %	12 %	14 %	6 %	2 %	3 %	4 %
	MSPs	40	46	18	18	5	2
	YouGov poll for the Economic and Social Research Council, fieldwork May, sample 1,800.
3 rd May 2007	Constituency	31 %	37 %	13 %	14 %	5 %
	Regional	27 %	32 %	13 %	10 %	9 %	9 %
	MSPs	39	45	17	16	9	3
	YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph, fieldwork 1 st and 2 nd May, sample 1,137.

Who would you vote for at the Westminster Parliamentary election?

Party		Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Scottish Green Party	Scottish Socialist Party	Solidarity	Others
Date	Vote
9 th January 2007	Constituency	34 %	27 %	19 %	15 %	3 %	1 %	0 %	2 %
9 th January 2007	1061 Scottish adults were surveyed between 4 th and 8 th January 2007. Published 9 th January 2007

The elections for your local council take place next May. Thinking about that election in your area, which party would you vote for?

Party		Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Independents/Others
Date	Logo
May 2003
	Vote	33 %	24 %	15 %	15 %	14 %
	Cllrs elected	509	174	122	174	240

23 rd November 2006
	Vote	27 %	28 %	14 %	16 %	15 %
	Projected Cllrs	331 (- 178	356 (+182)	120 (- 2)	179 (+ 5)	233 (- 7)
	1034 Scottish adults were surveyed between 15th and 20th November 2006. Published 23 rd November 2006
9 th January 2007	Vote	31 %	30 %	15 %	15 %	9 %
9 th January 2007	1061 Scottish adults were surveyed between 4 th and 8 th January 2007. Published 9 th January 2007
29 th April 2007	Vote	29 %	30 %	14 %	13 %	12 %¹
29 th April 2007	¹ Greens 4%, Independents and others 8%. 1,800 Scottish adults were surveyed between May 2007. Published 29 th May 2007

The SNP has proposed holding a referendum on whether Scotland should be independent. Leaving aside your own views on independence, would you support or oppose a referendum being held?

Date	Support	Oppose	Don't know
30 th March 2007	64 %	24 %	12 %

In an independence referendum tomorrow, would you vote Yes or No?

Date	Yes	No	Don't know
10 th September 2006	44 %	42 %	15 %

Do you support or oppose Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the United Kingdom?

Date	Support Scottish independence	Oppose Scottish independence	Don't know
9 th January 2007	40 %	44 %	16 %

If there were a referendum on whether to retain the Scottish Parliament and Executive in more or less their present form or to establish Scotland as a completely separate state outside the United Kingdom but inside the European Union, how would you vote?

Date	Would vote in favour of retaining present Scottish Parliament	Would vote in favour of a completely separate state outside the UK	Don't know/ Would not vote
April 2003	55 %	29 %	17 %
30 th March 2007	51 %	28 %	22 %

Do you want the Scottish Parliament to have more powers?

Date	Yes	No	Don't know
10 th September 2006	64 %	19 %	17 %

Suppose a wider range of options were available. Which of these would you prefer?

Date	Scotland to become a completely separate state outside both the UK and the European Union	Scotland to become a completely separate state outside the UK but within the European Union	Scotland to remain in the UK, but the Scottish Parliament having more powers than it does today	Scotland 's Parliament should continue to have the same powers that it has today	Scotland 's Parliament should have fewer powers	Scotland 's Parliament should be abolished, and its powers returned to Westminster	Don't know
9 th January 2007	9 %	22 %	37 %	12 %	2 %	10 %	7 %

Which of the following do you support?

Date	Full independence	Enhanced powers for Scottish parliament	No change	Abolition of Scottish parliament	Don't know
22 nd April 2007	26 %	37 %	17 %	12 %	8 %

Do you consider yourself...?

Date	Scottish, not British	More Scottish than British	Equally Scottish and British	More British than Scottish	British, not Scottish	None of these/ Not sure
9 th January 2007	32 %	28 %	22 %	3 %	10 %	4 %

I am disappointed with the performance of the Labour government

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
15 th March 2007	64 %	27 %	9 %

I feel let down by the Labour government

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
15 th March 2007	63 %	28 %	9 %

Do you approve or disapprove of the Scottish Executive's record to date?

Date	Approve	Disapprove	Don't know
April 2003	30 %	51 %	19 %
30 th March 2007	34 %	39 %	28 %

On balance, do you think that because of devolution Scotland is a better or a worse place to live than it would have been had there not been devolution?

Date	A better place in which to live	A worse place in which to live	Devolution hasn't made much difference	Don't know
30 th March 2007	41 %	10 %	38 %	11 %

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Jack McConnell as Scotland's First Minister?

Date	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know
April 2003	29 %	54 %	17 %
30 th March 2007	30 %	50 %	21 %

Leaving side you own party preferences, which of these politicians do you think would make the best First Minister for Scotland?

Date	Alex Salmond (Scottish National Party)	Jack McConnell (Labour)	Annabelle Goldie (Conservative)	Nicol Stephen (Liberal Democrat)	Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity)	Robin Harper (Green)	Colin Fox (Scottish Socialist Party)	Don 't know
23 rd November 2006	39 %	15 %	9 %	6 %	4 %	2 %	0 %	26 %

Who would make the best First Minister?

Date	Alex Salmond (Scottish National Party)	Jack McConnell (Labour)	Annabelle Goldie (Conservative)	Nicol Stephen (Liberal Democrat)	Don't know
30 th March 2007	31 %	18 %	7 %	3 %	36 %
22 nd April 2007	35 %	23 %	11 %	8 %	23 %

Who is more competent and who would make the best First Minister?

Date	Alex Salmond	Jack McConnell
10 th September 2006	39 %	30 %

If it were a straight choice between Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond, who do you think would make the best First Minister?

Date	Alex Salmond	Jack McConnell	Don't know
23 rd November 2006	54 %	29 %	17 %

Jack McConnell verses Alex Salmond

22 nd April 2007	Jack McConnell	Alex Salmond
Stands up for Scotland	24 %	55 %
Intelligent	23 %	33 %
Out of touch with people's concerns	29 %	12 %
Not leadership material	31 %	15 %
Dull	28 %	14 %

Which one of these party leaders cares most about making Scotland successful?

Date	Alex Salmond (Scottish National Party)	Tony Blair (Labour)	Sir Menzies Campbell (Liberal Democrat)	David Cameron (Conservative)
16 th March 2003	48 %	9 %	8 %	5 %

Which one of these Scottish party leaders cares most about making Scotland successful?

Date	Alex Salmond (Scottish National Party)	Jack McConnell (Labour)	Annabelle Goldie (Conservative)	Nicol Stephen (Liberal Democrat)
16 th March 2003	40 %	16 %	7 %	3 %

Leaving aside your own views on who would make the best First Minister, which of these do you regard as generally trustworthy?

Date	Alex Salmond (Scottish National Party)	Jack McConnell (Labour)	Annabelle Goldie (Conservative)	Nicol Stephen (Liberal Democrat)	Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity)	Don't know	None of the above
30 th March 2007	34 %	22 %	22 %	17 %	13 %	18 %	21 %

Do you believe Britain should continue to keep troops in Iraq, or should they now be withdrawn?

Date	Keep troops in Iraq, at least for the time being	Withdraw troops from Iraq now	Don't know
23 rd November 2006	33 %	58 %	9 %

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
The government deliberately lied when making the case for Britain to go to war in Iraq

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
23 rd November 2006	62 %	22 %	15 %

'Tony Blair did not tell the truth when making the case for Britain to go war in Iraq'

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
15 th March 2007	69 %	16 %	15 %

The Scottish Parliament should have the ability to bring Scottish soldiers home from Iraq

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
23 rd November 2006	51 %	38 %	11 %

There should be a parliamentary inquiry into the conduct of the war in Iraq

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
23 rd November 2006	68 %	20 %	12 %

The war in Iraq makes me less likely to vote Labour

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
23 rd November 2006	51 %	37 %	12 %

Do you think Tony Blair made a mistake taking Britain into war in Iraq?

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
23 rd November 2006	73 %	19 %	9 %

Which of the following would make you more likely to vote Labour at the Scottish Parliament elections next May?

Date	If Gordon Brown were Prime Minister by then	If Tony Blair were still Prime Minister	I will vote Labour in any case	I will not vote Labour in any case	Don't know
9 th January 2007	15 %	6 %	18 %	49 %	13 %

If Tony Blair is still Prime Minister at the time of the Scottish election does that make you more or less likely to vote Labour in that election?

Date	More likely to vote Labour	Less likely	No difference - I would vote Labour anyway	No difference - I would NOT vote Labour anyway	Don't know
15 th March 2007	5 %	21 %	21 %	44 %	9 %

Tony Blair cares about Scotland

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
15 th March 2007	20 %	58 %	22 %

Tony Blair has been a good Prime Minister for Scotland

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
15 th March 2007	22 %	58 %	21 %

Should Gordon Brown face a contest for the Labour leadership?

Date	Yes	No
22 nd April 2007	68 %	32 %

Do you approve of Gordon Brown's public backing of the English football team and suggestion that people should fly Union Jack flags in their garden?

Date	Approve
22 nd April 2007	3 %

Would Gordon Brown be a good or bad Prime Minister?

Date	Good	Bad	Don't Know
22 nd April 2007	38 %	37 %	25 %

Would Gordon Brown as Prime Minister be good or bad for Scotland?

Date	Good	Bad	Don't Know
22 nd April 2007	35 %	40 %	25 %

If Scotland became independent would it be acceptable for a Scot to be UK prime minister??

Date	Yes	No	Don't Know
22 nd April 2007	50 %	33 %	17 %

Would taxes rise if Scotland became independent?

Date	Yes	No
22 nd April 2007	68 %	32 %

The Council Tax should be scrapped, and replaced by a local income tax (which would be additional to normal income tax)

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
30 th March 2007	58 %	22 %	21 %

Scotland should refuse to allow any successor to the Trident nuclear missile system to be based in Scotland

Date	Agree	Disagree	Don't know
30 th March 2007	52 %	28 %	20 %

Any which of these statements come closer to your own view?

Date	At the moment, Scotland's public spending is subsidised by English taxpayers	The tax revenues from North Sea Oil belong to Scotland;when these are taken into account, Scotland subsidises the rest of the UK	Don't know
30 th March 2007	20 %	53 %	27 %

If the SNP emerges as the largest single party at Holyrood but without an overall majority, what would you like to see happen?

Date	As the largest party, the SNP should be given the first opportunity to see if it can create a coalition with a majority in the new Scottish Parliament	The current Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition should be given the first opportunity to see if it can continue running the Scottish Executive	Don't know
30 th March 2007	59 %	20 %	21 %

If the SNP emerges as the largest party but without a majority, which of these eventual outcomes do you think would be best for Scotland?

Date	The formation of a new Executive with the SNP in a coalition with other parties	The present Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition continuing to form the Scottish Executive	The installation of a purely SNP Executive which would then have to rely in Parliament on the votes of other parties	Don't know
30 th March 2007	47 %	18 %	10 %	24 %

Which two or three of the following should be the Scottish Executive and Parliament's main priorities after the May elections?

Date	30 th March 2007
Scrapping the early-release scheme for prisoners so that everyone sent to jail serves the full sentence imposed at their trial	47 %
Refusing to site in Scotland any new nuclear power stations or any replacement of the Trident nuclear missile system	31 %
Helping to fight climate change by setting targets for Scotland to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and giving help to families and firms to play their part in recycling, insulating, etc.	30 %
Making all school meals free to children and all prescriptions charge-free to patients	30 %
Keeping down income tax by not using the power to raise income tax by up to 3p in the pound	28 %
Scrapping the scheme giving heroin addicts methadone and using the money to establish a full-scale drugs rehabilitation programme	28 %
Insisting on receiving all the income from the taxes from North Sea oil off Scotland's coast	27 %
Holding a referendum on whether Scotland should become completely independent	23 %
Giving parents more choice over which school to send their children to	8 %
Don't know	8 %

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