'Scottish Opinion' Opinion Polls

Labour take the lead in the latest look at Scotland's politics

By Paul Sinclair in the Daily Record, 26 th March 2003

THERE won't be a feeling of relief around Labour Party HQ at the latest poll figures, but a sense of fear may be easing.

The latest Scottish Opinion poll for the Daily Record sees Labour hold a healthy eight-point lead over the SNP in the first vote for the Scottish Parliament.

Although that swings round to a seven-point lead for the Nats on the second vote, it gives Labour strategists something to work on and a sense of momentum.

No-one knew what effect Tony Blair leading Britain to war with Iraq without a second UN resolution would have on the polls in the run-up to the Scottish election on May 1.

As diplomacy failed, some polls had Labour's lead on the first vote narrowing to one or two points. The fear for Labour was that anti-war sentiment could see the Nats sneak into the lead.

hat meltdown situation now seems to have been avoided and once again the SNP cannot get through the glass ceiling of around 31 per cent on the first vote.

One of the reasons for that has to be the popularity of Jack McConnell compared to SNP leader John Swinney.

Despite all the mud the Nats have flung at McConnell, he remains much more popular than his lesser-known opponent.

While 33 per cent of Scots think he has done a good job as First Minister, 24 per cent think he has been all right and 43 per cent think he could have done better.

Although that leaves McConnell with room for improvement, Swinney has a mountain to climb.

A pitiful 21 per cent of voters think he has done well and 18 per cent think he has been adequate, but a resounding 61 per cent of voters think he is not up to it.

However, if the voting intentions are translated into seats, both men would be pleased.

Nothing is certain given the regional variation on the lists, but Labour could be unchanged, holding on to 55 seats, while the SNP could go up by three to 38 seats, or possibly gain one or two more.

Labour would then be able to reform a coalition with the Lib-Dems who, on these figures, could lose one seat and be left with 16.

Far from Lib-Dem leader Jim Wallace being in a position to ask for an extra seat in the cabinet and to push through proportional representation for local government, McConnell would be calling the shots in a relatively stronger position.

It seems the Lib-Dems' anti-war stance may have cost them the votes of those disaffected Tories who supported them in 1999 and the Tories will be delighted to have edged ahead of them in the first vote.

Such is the stigma of being a Scottish Conservative, few people will admit to being a Tory in opinion polls, so they could do better than the 13 per cent polled here. However, that would still leave them with less votes than last time, so they could lose two seats, leaving them with 17.

As for the smaller parties and independents, these figures suggest that Dennis Canavan will hold on to Falkirk West while the Greens should win one seat and Tommy Sheridan would remain the SSP's only MSP.

While Labour will be buoyed by these figures, the war could dramatically alter things.

But they now have evidence to say that as the government went through the painful process of going to war without UN backing, Labour voters stayed loyal and the SNP failed to win them over.

It is still going to be very tight - and a heck of a lot more interesting than anyone expected a few months ago.



p.sinclair@dailyrecord.co.uk

HOW THE PARTIES FARED IN OUR POLL

1000 Scottish adults were interviewed by Scottish Opinion over the telephone between Wednesday March 19 and Tuesday March 25.

1. IF there were an election to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you vote with your first vote?

Labour 39 per cent.
SNP 31 per cent.
Conservative - 13 per cent.
Liberal Democrats 12 per cent.
Scottish Socialist Party - 2 per cent
Other 3 per cent.

2 ASK all who would vote. How would you vote with your second vote?

SNP - 36 per cent.
Labour 29 per cent.
Liberal Democrats 15 per cent.
Conservative 13 per cent.
Scottish Socialist Party 4 per cent
Other 3 per cent.

3 HOW effective do you think Jack McConnell has been as First Minister of Scotland?

Effective - 33 per cent
OK - 24 per cent
Ineffective - 43 per cent

4 HOW effective do you think John Swinney has been in opposition as the leader of the SNP?

Effective - 21 per cent
OK - 18 per cent
Ineffective - 61 per cent

5 DO you think that Scotland is a better or worse place to live since the Scottish parliament was established?
Better - 27 per cent
Worse - 10 per cent
The same - 60 per cent
Unsure - 3 per cent.