Market Research Opinion Polls

'Losing Mullah Omar was absent-minded, losing bin Laden was stupid. If you lose Saddam as well, you're beginning to look like a bunch of clowns.' Toby Dodge, Iraq expert at Warwick University, 15 th April 2003.

A Labour landslide

New opinion poll predicts a trouncing for SNP

By Eddie Barnes, Scottish Political Editor in the Daily Mail 29 th April 2003

Jack McConnell is heading for a landslide victory in Thursday's Holyrood election according to an explosive poll.

With only 48 hours until voting begins, it puts Labour a staggering 17 points ahead of the flatlining SNP.

Mr McConnell has only one fear remaining - that his supporters will decide not to bother voting in the belief that victory is assured.

The MORI poll of more than 1,000 voters, compiled exclusively for the Scottish daily Mail, makes grim reading for John Swinney.

Only 11 per cent of those questioned said they had been impressed with his performance during the campaign - half the rating given to Mr McConnell.

Fewer than four out of ten want an independent Scotland, while one in two believe the SNP has failed to make the case for divorce.

Tory leader David McLetchie will also be concerned by the poll's findings, which suggest one in two of the party's 19 MSPs will lose their seats.

By contrast, Tommy Sheridan's Scottish Socialist Party is in line for a phenomenal success, gaining as many as nine seats.

His barnstorming campaign performances have won over new voters and he was second only to Mr McConnell in popularity.

'These are the best results for Labour of the entire campaign,' said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

'They are just the kind of figures that Jack McConnell will be delighted to get on Thursday. It will mean they go up on four years ago - but just as importantly, it would see the Liberals go down, which means Labour's hand in any coalition negotiations becomes much stronger.'

He added: 'These kind of figures will give the Tories the collywobbles. They also suggest that Tommy Sheridan is about to join the big boys.'

On the first constituency vote, of the 60 per cent of respondents who said they would definitely vote, 43 per cent will back Labour, 26 per cent the SNP, while the Tories trailed on 12 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats attracted 9 per cent of voters, just 3 per cent ahead of Scottish Socialists. Robin Harper's Greens were backed by only 1 per cent.

On the second vote Labour's standing was 35 per cent, 9 per cent ahead of the SNP. Jim Wallace's Liberal Democrats were third on 11 per cent with the Tories a point behind and Tommy Sheridan's extreme socialism attracting 9 per cent.

The Greens picked up noticeably, winning 6 per cent of second votes.

If mirrored on Thursday, such figures would boost Labour's lead over the SNP by 7 per cent from 1999. However, because of Holyrood's complicated voting system, Labour would get just one extra seat, while the SNP would lose just two. The Liberals would also win two, but the Tories would collapse from 19 to just 10. The SSP would pick up nine, while the Greens would rocket from one seat to six.

With Labour getting stronger and the Liberals weakening, Mr McConnell would be able to dictate the terms of any coalition. He could even go on his own as a powerful minority administration.

None of the parties emerges with huge credit from the MORI poll, which reveals widespread disillusionment with the Scottish parliament.

Fewer than three out of ten voters were satisfied with its work while nearly 40 per cent believe Holyrood has been a disappointment.

Simon Braunholtz, director of MORI Scotland said: 'There is disenchantment with the parliament, particularly among Liberals - which is interesting considering their party has been in the action.'
BR> Perhaps MORI's most startling finding is the rise of the Socialists and the Greens.

The Green Party's aggressive 'second vote' campaign seems to have paid dividends. And while the Socialists' showing will worry Labour, MORI concluded that the chief casualty on Thursday will actually be the Nationalists.

Mr Braunholtz added: 'One of the reasons the SNP has gone down in the polls is that the SSP has sucked support away amongst young people.'

Both the SSP and the SNP may suffer from the poll's most depressing finding - just 29 per cent of 18 to 24 years-olds say they will vote. Overall, 60 per cent of voters said they would definitely vote on Thursday, but MORI predicted the actual turnout would not be as high.

However, the poll suggested it might exceed 50 per cent - a massive relief for Mr McConnell who feared damage the parliament's credibility (sic).

Labour received a boost with a separate poll giving it a ten point lead over the SNP. The NFO System Three poll for the Herald puts Labour on 38 points and the SNP on 28. A poll at the beginning of the month had them level on 31.

On the second vote, the SNP has also lost ground, with both parties on 28. At the beginning of April, it was ahead by three points.

Poll position

Daily Mail Editorial, 29 th April 2003

Normally it would be absurd to describe as sensational an opinion poll showing Labour with a commanding lead in a Scottish election. But these are not normal circumstances. Having level-pegged with the Nationalists earlier in the campaign, today's MORI poll, conducted exclusively for the Scottish Daily Mail, shows Labour with a spectacular 17 point lead.

Disturbingly, it also suggest Tommy Sheridan's Scottish Socialists could win as many as nine seats despite doing little to demonstrate a grip on political reality. The Greens could gain six seats while the Tories would tumble form 19 to ten.

But the big losers are the Nationalists, predicted to lose two seats rather than make any gains after four years of controversial Labour government. Their campaign cannot be faulted - it was slick and professional - but their leader can. John Swinney commands half the rating of Jack McConnell. If anything resembling this poll is the outcome on Friday, Mr Swinney is history.

So might the Liberal Democrats be, as coalition partners - their vote is surprisingly soft, suggesting their supporters may intend to punish them for acting as Labour's poodles. But, if this poll sends a strong message to the parties, it also comes with a health warning: MORI has, in the past, not been alone among pollsters in overestimating the extent of Labour's support.

Much depends on the size of the Stay-Away Party on Thursday.

Snapshot of the nation's mood