System 3 Opinion Polls

'Nearly three-quarters of Scots want and expect the Scottish parliament to replace Westminster as the body that has most influence over their lives. Only one in eight thinks the UK parliament in London should hold that pre-eminent position.'
Iain MacWhirter in the Herald, 27 th June 2001.

Data extracted from The Herald (Glasgow) System 3 polls

System 3 polls around 1,000 voters in around 40 constituencies towards the end of the month. The polls are generally published in the Herald on the first Monday of the following month. The 'date' mentioned below refers to the month of publication of the poll.

Voting Preference for Scottish Parliament

Party		Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Scottish Socialist Party	Scottish Green Party	Falkirk West MP	Others
Date	Vote
May 1999	Constituency	44 %	33 %	10 %	10 %	2 %
May 1999	Regional	37 %	34 %	10 %	13 %	5 %
6 May 1999 Holyrood elections	Constituency	38.81 %	28.74 %	15.56 %	14.15 %	1.01 %	0 %	0.79 %	0.93 %
6 May 1999 Holyrood elections	Regional	34.64 %	27.26 %	15.35 %	12.43 %	1.99 %	3.59 %	1.18 %	4.50 %
June 1999	Constituency	44 %	28 %	10 %	13 %	5 %
June 1999	Regional	36 %	30 %	10 %	17 %	8 %
July 1999	Constituency	43 %	28 %	11 %	12 %	6 %
July 1999	Regional	34 %	31 %	10 %	13 %	11 %
August 1999	Constituency	41 %	30 %	12 %	12 %	5 %
August 1999	Regional	34 %	31 %	10 %	14 %	11 %
September 1999	Constituency	40 %	31 %	12 %	11 %	6 %
September 1999	Regional	29 %	29 %	11 %	17 %	5 %	3 %	4 %
October 1999	Constituency	35 %	35 %	11 %	12 %	7 %
October 1999	Regional	32 %	32 %	8 %	15 %	12 %
November 1999	Constituency	39 %	35 %	10 %	10 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
November 1999	Regional	36 %	31 %	9 %	13 %	4 %	4 %	3 %
December 1999	Constituency	44 %	30 %	9 %	11 %	3 %	1 %	2 %
December 1999	Regional	33 %	30 %	10 %	14 %	5 %	5 %	3 %
January 2000	Constituency	43 %	34 %	8 %	9 %	4 %	2 %	0 %
January 2000	Regional	37 %	33 %	9 %	12 %	6 %	3 %	1 %
February 2000	Constituency	42 %	31 %	11 %	10 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
February 2000	Regional	34 %	31 %	9 %	14 %	5 %	5 %	2 %
March 2000 analysis	Constituency	37 %	36 %	12 %	9 %	4 %	1 %	1 %
March 2000 analysis	Regional	32 %	33 %	11 %	13 %	5 %	4 %	2 %
April 2000	Constituency	33 %	37 %	14 %	11 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
April 2000	Regional	29 %	34 %	11 %	15 %	5 %	3 %	3 %
May 2000	Constituency	34 %	35 %	14 %	10 %	4 %	2 %	2 %
May 2000	Regional	30 %	31 %	13 %	14 %	5 %	4 %	4 %
June 2000	Constituency	40 %	30 %	13 %	10 %	4 %	2 %	2 %
June 2000	Regional	31 %	33 %	13 %	13 %	4 %	6 %	3 %
July 2000	Constituency	33 %	36 %	12 %	12 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
July 2000	Regional	27 %	35 %	11 %	16 %	4 %	5 %	3 %
August 2000	Constituency	37 %	35 %	11 %	10 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
August 2000	Regional	33 %	30 %	11 %	12 %	6 %	5 %	3 %
September 2000	Constituency	34 %	36 %	13 %	9 %	5 %	2 %	1 %
September 2000	Regional	29 %	32 %	13 %	12 %	6 %	3 %	4 %
October 2000	Constituency	28 %	42 %	10 %	14 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
October 2000	Regional	25 %	38 %	11 %	15 %	4 %	4 %	2 %
November 2000	Constituency	39 %	35 %	10 %	11 %	2 %	1 %	1 %
November 2000	Regional	30 %	31 %	10 %	17 %	4 %	5 %	2 %
December 2000	Constituency	41 %	32 %	12 %	10 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
December 2000	Regional	35 %	30 %	12 %	13 %	4 %	4 %	2 %
15 January 2001	Constituency	37 %	35 %	11 %	10 %	2 %	2 %	2 %
15 January 2001	Regional	34 %	33 %	11 %	11 %	5 %	4 %	3 %
February 2001	Constituency	39 %	35 %	10 %	9 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
February 2001	Regional	33 %	33 %	9 %	13 %	6 %	4 %	2 %
6 March 2001	Constituency	36 %	38 %	12 %	9 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
6 March 2001	Regional	29 %	36 %	12 %	13 %	5 %	3 %	2 %
April 2001	Constituency	44 %	34 %	10 %	8 %	2 %	2 %	1 %
April 2001	Regional	36 %	32 %	9 %	11 %	6 %	5 %	1 %
7 May 2001	Constituency	39 %	34 %	12 %	8 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
7 May 2001	Regional	32 %	31 %	12 %	12 %	5 %	5 %	3 %
1 June 2001	Constituency	39 %	35 %	12 %	8 %	3 %	1 %	4 %
1 June 2001	Regional	30 %	34 %	12 %	12 %	5 %	3 %	6 %
4 July 2001	Constituency	40 %	31 %	10 %	14 %	3 %	1 %	1 %
4 July 2001	Regional	31 %	32 %	8 %	18 %	4 %	4 %	6 %
6 August 2001	Constituency	38 %	28 %	11 %	15 %	5 %	1 %	1 %
6 August 2001	Regional	33 %	28 %	12 %	16 %	6 %	3 %	2 %
3 September 2001	Constituency	43 %	28 %	11 %	11 %	4 %	1 %	1 %
3 September 2001	Regional	36 %	32 %	11 %	14 %	5 %	3 %	1 %
October 2001	Constituency	43 %	29 %	11 %	11 %	4 %	1 %	1 %
October 2001	Regional	36 %	29 %	9 %	15 %	7 %	2 %	2 %
5 November 2001	Constituency	45 %	30 %	8 %	12 %	3 %	1 %	1 %
5 November 2001	Regional	37 %	29 %	7 %	15 %	6 %	4 %	2 %
3 December 2001	Constituency	40 %	32 %	11 %	11%	3 %	1 %	1 %
3 December 2001	Regional	35 %	31 %	11 %	13 %	6 %	3 %	2 %
January 2002	Constituency	39 %	32 %	10 %	12 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
January 2002	Regional	33 %	29 %	11 %	15 %	6 %	5 %	2 %
February 2002	Constituency	40 %	31 %	9 %	13 %	4 %	1 %	1 %
February 2002	Regional	33 %	30 %	9 %	17 %	6 %	3 %	2 %
March 2002	Constituency	39 %	32 %	10 %	13 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
March 2002	Regional	34 %	30 %	11 %	15 %	6 %	3 %	2 %
3 April 2002	Constituency	36 %	32 %	12 %	15 %	3 %	2 %	2 %
3 April 2002	Regional	28 %	30 %	9 %	19 %	6 %	5 %	2 %
7 May 2002	Constituency	40 %	27%	12 %	13 %	4 %	2 %	1 %
7 May 2002	Regional	31 %	28 %	11 %	16 %	6 %	5 %	2 %
June 2002	Constituency	40 %	29 %	10 %	14 %	5 %	1 %	1 %
June 2002	Regional	34 %	29 %	10 %	15 %	6 %	4 %	2 %
1 July 2002	Constituency	37 %	32 %	12 %	12 %	3 %	2 %	1 %
1 July 2002	Regional	32 %	29 %	11 %	15 %	8 %	4 %	2 %
August 2002	Constituency	39 %	30 %	10 %	12 %	6 %	3 %	1 %
August 2002	Regional	30 %	29 %	10 %	15 %	8 %	5 %	3 %
September 2002	Constituency	38 %	28 %	11 %	15 %	4 %	2 %	1 %
September 2002	Regional	34 %	28 %	9 %	15 %	8 %	4 %	2 %
October 2002	Constituency	38 %	28 %	10 %	16 %	4 %	3 %	2 %
October 2002	Regional	28 %	29 %	10 %	16 %	9 %	6 %	4 %
November 2002	Constituency	37 %	30 %	12 %	15 %	4 %	2 %	1 %
November 2002	Regional	29 %	30 %	10 %	19 %	5 %	4 %	3 %
December 2002	Constituency	35 %	32 %	11 %	16 %	4 %	2 %	1 %
December 2002	Regional	30 %	28 %	10 %	18 %	6 %	5 %	3 %
13 January 2003	Constituency	40 %	30 %	10 %	13 %	4 %	2 %	1 %
13 January 2003	Regional	29 %	31 %	10 %	15 %	7 %	5 %	3 %
8 February 2003	Constituency	32 %	31 %	11 %	16 %	5 %	3 %	2 %
8 February 2003	Regional	28 %	28 %	10 %	17 %	7 %	6 %	4 %
7 March 2003	Constituency	34 %	32 %	10 %	14 %	6 %	2 %	1 %
7 March 2003	Regional	27 %	27 %	10 %	15 %	10 %	6 %	4 %
5 April 2003	Constituency	31 %	31 %	11 %	16 %	6 %	3 %	2 %
5 April 2003	Regional	26 %	29 %	9 %	18 %	8 %	7 %	3 %
17 April 2003	Constituency	39 %	26 %	13 %	12 %	4 %	3 %	2 %
17 April 2003	Regional	30 %	27 %	11 %	14 %	6 %	7 %	4 %
29 April 2003	Constituency	38 %	28 %	10 %	14 %	6 %	2 %	1 %
29 April 2003	Regional	28 %	28 %	9 %	13 %	10 %	7 %	5 %

¹No breakdown for the Greens, SSP and Others were published for certain months in 2001. Data was deduced from figures from "Last year" in 2002.

Constituency Vote

Constituency vote
As breakdowns were not published for certain months, it was not possible to include seperate figures for the SSP, Greens and others in this graph.

Regional Vote

Regional vote
As breakdowns were not published for certain months, it was not possible to include seperate figures for the SSP, Greens and others in this graph.

Projected Seats in Scottish Parliament

Total (Constituency MSPs + Additional Members)

Party	Labour	Scottish National Party	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Scottish Socialist Party	Scottish Green Party	Falkirk West MP	Others
Date
1 May 1997 (Projection on Westminster Election results)	63 (56 + 7)	28 (6 + 22)	22 (0 + 22)	16 (11 + 5)	0	0	0	0
1 May 1997 (Projection on Westminster Election results)	Labour short of overall majority by 2 seats SNP short of overall majority by 37 seats
6 May 1999 General Election	56 (53 + 3)	35 (7 + 28)	18 (0 + 18)	17 (12 + 5)	1	1	1	0
6 May 1999 General Election	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 20 seats
October 1999	51 (42 + 9)	47	7 (1 + 6)	20	2	1	1	0
October 1999	Labour short of overall majority by 14 seats SNP short of overall majority by 18 seats
November 1999	56	43	9	18	1	1	1	0
November 1999	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 22 seats
December 1999	57 (55 + 2)	38 (6 + 32)	12	19	1	1	1	0
December 1999	Labour short of overall majority by 8 seats SNP short of overall majority by 27 seats
January 2000	56	44	9	16	2	1	1	0
January 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 21 seats
February 2000	56	41	9	19	1	2	1	0
February 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 24 seats
March 2000	53 (46 + 7)	44 (15 + 29)	11 (0 + 11)	17 (11 +6)	2 (0 + 2)	1 (0 + 1)	1 (1 + 0)	0
March 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 12 seats SNP short of overall majority by 21 seats
April 2000	42	49	14	19	3	1 (0 + 1)	1 (1 + 0)	0
April 2000	SNP short of overall majority by 16 seats Labour short of overall majority by 23 seats
May 2000	49	40	16	19	3	1 (0 + 1)	1 (1 + 0)	0
May 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 16 seats SNP short of overall majority by 25 seats
June 2000	55	42	10	18	1	2 (0 + 2)	1 (1 + 0)	0
June 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats SNP short of overall majority by 23 seats
July 2000	43 (37 + 6)	48 (23 + 25)	12 (1 + 11)	21 (11 + 10)	2 (0 + 2)	2 (0 + 2)	1 (1 + 0)	0
July 2000	SNP short of overall majority by 17 seats Labour short of overall majority by 22 seats
August 2000	54	40	13	16	4 (0 + 4)	1 (0 + 1)	1 (1 + 0)	0
August 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 11 seats SNP short of overall majority by 25 seats
September 2000	47	43	16	18	3 (0 + 1)	1 (0 + 1)	1 (1 + 0)	0
September 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 18 seats SNP short of overall majority by 22 seats
October 2000	32	59	13	20	3 (0 + 1)	1 (0 + 1)	1 (1 + 0)	0
October 2000	SNP short of overall majority by 6 seats Labour short of overall majority by 33 seats
November 2000	55	40	10	20	2 (0 + 2)	2 (0 + 2)	0¹	0
November 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats SNP short of overall majority by 25 seats
December 2000	58	34	14	19	2 (0 + 2)	2 (0 + 2)	0¹	0
December 2000	Labour short of overall majority by 7 seats SNP short of overall majority by 31 seats
January 2001	55	43	12	16	2 (0 + 2)	1 (0 + 1)	0¹	0
January 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats SNP short of overall majority by 22 seats
February 2001	57	42	9	17	2 (0 + 2)	2 (0 + 2)	0¹	0
February 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 8 seats SNP short of overall majority by 23 seats
March 2001	48	52	9	17	2 (0 + 2)	1 (0 + 1)	0¹	0
March 2001	SNP short of overall majority by 13 seats Labour short of overall majority by 17 seats
April 2001	58	43	9	16	2 (0 + 2)	1 (0 + 1)	0¹	0
April 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 7 seats SNP short of overall majority by 22 seats
7 May 2001	²	²	²	²	²	²	²¹	²
7 May 2001	²
June 2001	²	²	²	²	²	²	²	²
June 2001	²
July 2001	56	41	7	21	2 (0 + 2)	2 (0 + 2)	0	0
July 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 24 seats
August 2001
August 2001	Labour short of overall majority by seats SNP short of overall majority by seats
September 2001	58 (55+3)	40 (7+33)	11 (0+11)	18 (9+9)	1 (0+1)	1 (0+1)	1 (1+0)	0
September 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 7 seats SNP short of overall majority by 25 seats
October 2001	58 (55+3)	37 (7+30)	9 (0+9)	17 (9+8)			1 (1+0)	0
October 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 7 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
November 2001	60 (56+4)	37 (7+30)	7 (0+7)	19 (9+10)			1 (1+0)	0
November 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 5 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
December 2001	57 (53+4)	40 (10+30)	12 (0+12)	16 (9+7)	3 (0+3)	0	1 (1+0)	0
December 2001	Labour short of overall majority by 8 seats SNP short of overall majority by 25 seats
January 2002	56 (51+5)	37 (11+26)	12 (0+12)	18 (10+8)	3 (0+3)	2 (0+2)	1 (1+0)	0
January 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
February 2002	56 (51+5)	37 (9+28)	10 (0+10)	22 (12+10)	2 (0+2)	1 (0+1)	1 (1+0)	0
February 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
March 2002	56 (50+6)	38 (10+28)	11 (0+11)	20 (12+8)	2 (0+2)	1 (0+1)	1 (1+0)	0
March 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 27 seats
April 2002	51 (48+3)	37 (12+25)	10 0+10)	24 (12+12)	7 (1+6)			0
April 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 14 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
May 2002	56 (54+2)	37 (6+31)	11 (0+11)	20 (12+8)	5 (1+4)			0
May 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
June 2002	56 (48+8)	38 (12+26)	9 (0+9)	19 (12+7)	4 (0+4)	2 (0+2)	1 (1 +0)	0
June 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 27 seats
July 2002	53 (45+8)	36 (13+23)	12 (2+10)	17 (12+5)	7 (0+7)	3 (0+3)	1 (1+0)	0
July 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 12 seats SNP short of overall majority by 29 seats
August 2002	56 (53+3)	36 (9+27)	10 (0+10)	18 (10+8)	5 (0+5)	3 (0+3)	1 (1+0)	0
August 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 29 seats
September 2002	56 (53+3)	37 (7+30)	9 (0+9)	20 (12+8)	5 (0+5)	1 (0+1)	1 (1+0)	0
September 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
October 2002	55 (53+2)	34 (7+27)	10 (0+10)	20 (12+8)	6 (0+6)	3 (0+3)	1 (1+0)	0
October 2002	Labour short of overall majority by seats SNP short of overall majority by seats
November 2002	55 (50+5)	38 (10+28)	10 (0+10)	22 (12+10)	2 (0+2)	1 (0+1)	1 (1+0)	0
November 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats SNP short of overall majority by 27 seats
December 2002	53 (48+5)	37 (12+25)	10 (0+10)	22 (12+10)	4 (0+4)	2 (0+2)	1 (1+0)	0
December 2002	Labour short of overall majority by 12 seats SNP short of overall majority by 28 seats
13 January 2003	53	38	10	20	5 (0+5)	2 (0+2)	1 (1+0)	0
13 January 2003	Labour short of overall majority by 13 seats SNP short of overall majority by 27 seats
8 February 2003	47	38	11	22	8 (0+8)	4 (0+4)	1 (1+0)	0
8 February 2003	Labour short of overall majority by 18 seats SNP short of overall majority by 27 seats
7 March 2003	48	34	11	21	10 (0+10)	4 (0+4)	1 (1+0)	0
7 March 2003	Labour short of overall majority by 17 seats SNP short of overall majority by 31 seats
5 April 2003	46	38	²	23	²	²	1 (1+0)	0
5 April 2003	Labour short of overall majority by 19 seats SNP short of overall majority by 27 seats
17 April 2003	56 (54+2)	34 (7+27)	12 (0+12)	19 (11+8)	3 (0+3)	4 (0+4)	1 (1+0)	0
17 April 2003	Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats SNP short of overall majority by 31 seats
29 April 2003	52	34	10	19	9	4	1	0
29 April 2003	Labour short of overall majority by 13 seats SNP short of overall majority by 31 seats

The deductions of MSP numbers comes from several sources. Initially analysis was provided for the Herald by Malcolm Dickson of Strathclyde University, while it is now carried out by the Electoral Reform Ballot Services. In the interim we used data from Colin Pennycook. At times the interpretation of data has differed due to different methodology.

¹ The analysis of data at that time suggested Dennis Canavan might lose his seat
² No data published

Projected number of MSPs

Projected MSPs
Due to incomplete data being published it is not possible to update this graph for the present.

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