System 3 Opinion Polls

saltire shield'If, for example, an English nationalist Conservative Government decided to cut the block grant to the Scottish Parliament, or to deny Scottish Ministers access to European discussions, no amount of legislation could prevent wrecking action of that type.'
Scottish Devolution and Home Affairs Minister Henry McLeish, Hansard, 13 th January 1998.		Lion Rampant
System 3System 3

Data extracted from The Herald (Glasgow) System 3 polls

Voting Preference for Scottish Parliament

Single question

Party Labour Scottish National Party Conservative Liberal Democrat Others
Date Labour logo SNP logo Conservative logo Liberal logo
November 199748 %29 %13 %9 %1 %
December 1997No Scottish parliament poll
January 1998
February 199844 %33 %9 %13 %1 %
March 199839 %38 %12 %10 %1 %
April 199840 %40 %8 %10 %1 %
May 199836 %41 %11 %10 %1 %
June 199835 %44 %10 %10 %1 %
July 199834 %48 %9 %9 %1 %
August 199838 %44 %9 %9 %1 %

After August 1998, the single question poll was superseded by the two question poll (below) which was started by System 3 in July 1998.

Data in graphical format

holyrood percentages

Voting Preference for Scottish Parliament

Two questions

PartyLabourScottish National PartyConservativeLiberal DemocratOthers
Date Vote Labour logo SNP logo Conservative logo Liberal logo
July 1998Constituency37 %45 %9 %8 %1 %
Regional32 %43 %11 %12 %2 %
August 1998Constituency40 %41 %10 %9 %1 %
Regional36 %41 % 9%12 %2 %
September 1998Constituency41 %38 %11 %8 %1 %
Regional39 %40 %10 %10 %1 %
October 1998Constituency39 %39 %12 %9 %1 %
Regional37 %38 %12 %12 %1 %
November 1998Constituency39 %37 %12 %12 %1 %
Regional37 %35 %11 %14 %1 %
December 1998Constituency38 %37 %11 %12 %1 %
Regional35 %35 %12 %16 %1 %
January 1999Constituency38 %38 %11 %11 %1 %
Regional37 %38 %11 %12 %1 %
February 1999Constituency41 %39 %10 %9 %1 %
Regional38 %38 %10 %13 %1 %
March 1999Constituency39 %38 %11 %11 %1 %
Regional40 %36 %10 %12 %1 %
2 April 1999Constituency45 %32 %10 %12 %1 %
Regional40 %32 %11 %15 %1 %
22 April 1999Constituency46 %26 %11 %13 %2 %
Regional40 %27 %12 %14 %4 %
29 April 1999Constituency44 %33 %10 %10 %3 %
Regional37 %34 %10 %13 %6 %

Data in graphical format

Constituencies

Holyrood constituency percentages

Regions

Holyrood regional percentages

Projected Seats in Scottish Parliament

Total (Constituency MSPs + Additional Members)
Predictions for February to April assume a 100% match between voters' party choice with both constituency and list votes.
Also assumes that in the dual Orkney and Shetland seat to be created as set out in the White Paper the Lib Dems take both constituency seats

Party Labour Scottish National Party Conservative Liberal Democrat
DateLabour logoSNP logoConservative logoLiberal logo
1 May 1997
(Projection on Westminster Election results)		63 (56 + 7)28 (6 + 22)22 (0 + 22)16 (11 + 5)
Labour short of overall majority by 2 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 37 seats
February 19986836817
Labour overall majority of 4
SNP short of overall majority by 29 seats
March 199855 (49+6)49 (16+33)13 (0+13)12 (7+5)
Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 16 seats
April 199859 (49+10)53 (17+36)7 (0+7)10 (6+4)
Labour short of overall majority by 6 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 12 seats
May 1998
(Assumes 100% match between constituency and list votes.)		53 (42+11)52 (23+29)12 (0+12)12 (8+4)
Labour short of overall majority by 12 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 13 seats
May 1998
(Using list vote changes identified by ICM.)		46 (42+4)54 (23+31)9 (0+9)20 (8+12)
SNP short of overall majority by 11 seats
Labour short of overall majority by 19 seats
June 1998
(Assumes 100% match between constituency and list votes.)		52 (32+20)58 (23+25)9 (0+9)10 (7+3)
SNP short of overall majority by 7 seats
Labour short of overall majority by 13 seats
June 1998
(Using list vote changes identified by ICM.)		43 (32+11)61 (34+27)8 (0+8)17 (7+10)
SNP short of overall majority by 4 seats
Labour short of overall majority by 22 seats
July 1998
(New System 3 two question poll.)		46 (35+11)56 (32+24)12 (0+12)15 (6+9)
SNP short of overall majority by 9 seats
Labour short of overall majority by 19 seats
July 1998
(Using detailed regional analysis of poll.)		42 (21 + 21)63 (48 + 15)8 (0 + 8)12 (4 + 8)
SNP short of overall majority by 2 seats
Labour short of overall majority by 23 seats
August 1998
(New System 3 two question poll.)		55527 (0+7)15 (6+9)
Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 13 seats
September 1998
(New System 3 two question poll.)		59 (52 + 7)53 (14 + 39)7 (0+7)10 (7+3)
Labour short of overall majority by 6 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 12 seats
November 1998
(Two question poll.)		55 (49 + 6)42 (13 + 29)14 (0+14)18 (9+9)
Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 23 seats
December 1998
(Two question poll.)		55 (50 + 5)42 (16 + 26)13 (0+13)19 (7+12)
Labour short of overall majority by 10 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 23 seats
January 1999
(Two question poll.)		56 (50 + 6)46 (16 + 30)12 (0+12)15 (7+8)
Labour short of overall majority by 9 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 19 seats
February 1999
(Two question poll.)		57 (51 + 6)46 (15 + 31)9 (0+9)17 (7 + 10)
Labour short of overall majority by 8 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 19 seats
March 1999
(Two question poll.)		5947 (16 + 31)815
Labour short of overall majority by 6 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 18 seats
2 April 1999
(Two question poll.)		60391218
Labour short of overall majority by 5 seats
SNP short of overall majority by 26 seats

I am indebted to Teddy Jamieson, On-line Editor of The Herald for supplying data presented here.


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