Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid.
| 'I know the Secretary of State very very well - because he's my father.' Beattie Media employee, Kevin Reid. | |
The Tories and the SNP both suffer a post-election hangover, but for the Conservatives looking to the next Holyrood poll for some signs of recovery, there is no light at the end of the tunnel and no indication that the publicity from the leadership contest is helping.
Their Westminster standing has fallen two points to 11% while the LibDems, up one on 12%, overtake them for the first time this year.
On the first vote for Holyrood constituencies, the Conservatives are static on 10% with the LibDems up two on 14% and, on the second vote, the Tories slide three to 8% while the LibDems are up three to their highest standing of 18% since the Scottish parliament began.
A measure of the way in which such a result, if repeated in the ballot box, could push the Conservatives right down to a clear fourth place in Scottish politics is that it could bring the LibDems more than 20 seats and leave the Tories in single figures, even with proportional representation for Holyrood.
It is a flat month for the SNP in the wake of the election, down two for Westminster to 24%, and down four on the first Holyrood vote to 31%, both the lowest figure this year. But the second Scottish election vote, although down two to 32%, matches or betters two scores in recent months, and is actually one point better than Labour on the same question this month.
Labour is up three on its Westminster standings to 50%, up one on the first Holyrood question to 40% and up one on the second question to 31%, a steady performance on the back of its second landslide in the general election.
Both the Scottish Socialist Party and the Scottish Greens continue to indicate that they have become a permanent feature on the post-devolution landscape, particularly with the second Holyrood vote where both stand on 4%.
Malcolm Dickson of Strathclyde University calculates that a Scottish election which produced a result in line with this poll would see only two constituency changes: Labour losing Dundee West to the SNP, but recapturing Falkirk West from Dennis Canavan, although it would be difficult to infer the latter from such a broad poll across Scotland.
The figures indicate Labour unchanged with 56 seats, the SNP with six more at 41, the LibDems up four with 21 seats, the Conservatives dropping 11 seats to just seven, and the Socialists and Greens both up one with two each.
NFO System Three questioned 1028 voters in 39 constituencies between June 21-27.
-July 4th
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