 | 'I think that the hon. Gentleman may find that, as the constitutional issue is addressed in the Bill, interest in his party will diminish rapidly. We are already seeing that. The only hope for the Scottish National Party is to fill the vacuum on the right of Scottish politics left by the collapse of the Tory party.' John Home Robertson, Labour MP for East Lothian, Hansard 13 th January 1998. |  |
The SNP has also been boosted in the short term, with the same opinion poll putting it within six points of Labour in voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament.
Worse for Labour and the other parties, the SNP's immediate vision of an independent Scotland, at least according to the poll, is now attracting 47% support compared with only 40% for the proposed Home Rule settlement.
The figures from Mori Scotland for the Mail on Sunday come two weeks after The Herald's landmark survey by System Three which put Labour only one point ahead of the SNP in Scottish Parliament voting intentions, and plunged Labour into its worst crisis since gaining power, provoking secret emergency talks between Tony Blair and Scottish Secretary Donald Dewar.
Mori Scotland has found 62% of Scots believe Scotland would be an independent state within 15 years (75% thought 50 years and 25% thought five years).
Support for Labour in the Scottish Parliament is running at 42% according to the telephone poll, with the SNP on 36% but more than half of those questioned (54%) thought Mr Blair was "not in touch" with the Scottish people. The Tories and Lib Dems came equal bottom of the poll on Scottish Parliament voting, with 9%.
SNP leader Alex Salmond yesterday seized on the poll as evidence that while his party and Labour were neck and neck in the short-term race for seats in a devolved Scottish Parliament, Scots had reached a fresh consensus for quitting the Union early next century.
"This is a great poll for the SNP showing that it is now the accepted will of the Scottish people that Scotland will be independent within 15 years and that independence is the preferred option in the long term for 62 %," he said.
The Mori poll also suggests 59% of Scots believe actor Sean Connery should have received a knighthood, while Mr Dewar emerged as the people's favourite for the position of First Minister but with only 28%, just three points ahead of Mr Salmond.
However, the Scottish Secretary yesterday took a swipe at what he called people obsessed with constitutional change, claiming the public does not want Scottish Parliament elections turned into a "constant referendum on constantly changing constitutional patterns."
He conceded the election would be a "hard contest" for Labour, but said it was more about which party wanted to make the new Parliament work, and who wanted to deal with the real problems in Scotland such as education and health.
Despite the recent polls indicating support for the SNP will rise considerably at the Scottish Parliament elections, Mr Dewar drew comparisons with an opinion poll in the Scotsman before the 1992 election: it claimed support for independence stood at 50%. Three weeks later at the General Election the SNP failed to gain any additional seats, and lost Glasgow Govan. He argued that the vast majority of Scots he speaks to recognise that Scotland and England have many shared experiences and do not want the relationship to be on the same basis as with France or Germany. Carefully avoiding complacency, Mr Dewar said Labour would win the elections to the new Parliament, but would do so by working very hard. "If you are saying to me the whole world is crumbling, the answer is no, certainly not."
Mr Salmond, meanwhile, pointed to an increasing perception in Scotland of Labour as the London party, saying that while the SNP continues to win over the hearts and minds of Scots, the Government is doing the opposite.
He said: "This is the most damaging poll yet for the Labour Government showing that after less than a year in office Scots are distrustful of Tony Blair's New Labour, with a clear majority believing he is out of touch with the needs of the Scottish people.
"The ground is shifting under New Labour's feet because their 'Made-in-Millbank' policies are not acceptable to 'Mainstream Scotland'."
Scottish Conservatives also seized on apparent dissatisfaction with the Labour Party, but said the challenge at the first election to the Scottish Parliament would be to "reinforce the positive image of Scotland's place in the Union".
A spokesman said: "Labour's cosying up to the Nationalists during the devolution referendum is seriously backfiring. There are visible signs that disenchantment with the Labour Government could drive Scots into the arms of the Nationalists."
Senior Liberal Democrat MP Archy Kirkwood said that his party would do much better than the poll suggests, claiming opinion polls fail to take account of the proportional representation system that will be used to elect members of the new Parliament.
On BBC Radio Scotland's Eye to Eye, he said: "We are in a completely new electoral context and straight-forward polls will not be able to reflect the subtleties of the new PR system. "We will be able to go into the rotten borough Labour areas in the west of Scotland and make a genuine difference.
"We can say for the first time that a Liberal Democrat vote will be meaningful because it will elect someone from the list if not the first vote."
Lord Steel, former Lib-Dem leader, dismissed the poll, saying he thought people who had no special interest in politics were probably confused between independence and "what is happening in Edinburgh next year".
He said: "If you put the question another way and ask if they want a separate Scottish army and air force, then they say No." - Mar 30
| Party | Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date |  |  |  |  |
| March 1998 | 42 % | 36 % | 9 % | 9 % |
| Independence | 47 % |
|---|---|
| Devolution | 40 % |
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