ICM Opinion Poll

'A joint campaign by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP presents what might be termed theological difficulties. The problem is this: Labour believes that home rule will secure the Union; the Nationalists, by definition, believe devolution is the first step towards separation. Which is the public to believe? ' Scotsman editorial, 29 th May 1997.

Poll confirms Yes, Yes vote

By Peter MacMahon, Scottish Political Editor in the Scotsman10 th September 1997

LABOUR is on course to win outright control of the Scottish parliament with tax-varying powers which voters are set to endorse decisively in tomorrow's referendum.

The final ICM/Scotsman poll of the campaign shows that the principle of devolution is likely to be backed by a huge majority.

Calculations by ICM, based on the number of people who are certain to vote in the referendum, put the first question on the principle of devolution beyond doubt.

Despite finding that more than half of the electorate believe that the parliament is likely to put up their taxes if it has the power, the survey also suggests a comfortable Yes majority on the controversial second question.

The result of the poll, the most extensive survey of public opinion in Scotland, are a fillip for Labour, which brought the deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, north to campaign yesterday, and a blow for the Tory leader, William Hague, who told a rally in Glasgow last night that the anti-devolutionists were the "true bravehearts".

The Yes,Yes campaign was also bolstered by support from Scotland's leading merchant banker, Sir Angus Grossart, who endorsed the Government's devolution plans.

Labour, which has faced charges that the parliament will be "Paisley writ large", will be particularly pleased that the poll shows that it should win overall control of the parliament, even with the proposed proportional election system, which, it has been assumed would lead to coalition rule.

Although much can change between now and the first election for the parliament, likely to be in the spring of 1999, the party will take heart from its support, which shows that allegations of Labour sleaze are having little effect.

However, the Government was taking nothing for granted on the second question yesterday, with the Prime Minister, Tony Blair, and the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, repeating again the pledge that there would be no income tax rises in the life of the Westminster parliament.

But their hopes of preserving party unity were dealt a severe blow by a scathing attack on the leadership by the pro-home rule Labour MP John McAllion, who broke ranks to argue that the parliament should use its tax-raising powers.

In the magazine of the hard- left Campaign Group, Mr McAllion wrote: "Dissent is now denounced as disloyalty. To be and stay on message is all. I believe that devolution will be a dagger aimed at the heart of these auto- cratic tendencies.

"A Scottish parliament using its tax-raising powers will be a direct challenge to the myth that low taxes and low levels of public spending are inescapable in a global economy.

"It will show that raising taxes to spend on our economic and social infrastructure can create a more just and equal competitive society."

The MP for Dundee East defended his article last night, arguing that, like Mr Blair in the early 1980s when Mr Blair opposed the leftward drift of the party, he was out of step with the prevailing mood but had a right to argue his corner.

Mr McAllion added: "I am just a back-bencher and these are my views. This is not North Korea. There is a leadership line but there are people who differ with it."

Asked whether his remarks might mean he will not reach the approved list of candidates for the Scottish parliament, which he hopes to stand for, Mr McAllion said: "It would be outrageous if someone was inelig- ible because they believed in taxes and public spending."

Labour quickly distanced the party from Mr McAllion's ideas, making it clear that he did not speak for the Government.

But after that setback for the Yes,Yes campaign came the endorsement from Sir Angus, the managing director of Noble Grossart, who said the devolution white paper had struck the right balance.

Sir Angus, emphasising that he was speaking personally, said that two main objections to the devolution plans of 1979 had been answered: the parliament would have tax powers and it would be elected under a proportional system. He said that the success of many important Scottish businesses in the past decade had been attributable to the emergence of extremely able management who had "the courage and vision to tackle change and make the best of opportunity".

In a remark which will be music to the ears of the Yes,Yes camp, he added: "Self-confidence and aspirations are justifiably high. The challenge is to ensure that these same qualities and abilities are available to help the future affairs of Scotland. I have confidence that this will be the case."

Mr Blair used the TUC conference in Brighton to hammer home the message on tax. He told delegates: "I say to Scotland and Wales, you didn't believe the Tory scares on 1 May, don't believe them now.

"I promised at the general election that we would not increase either the basic or top rate of tax. We kept that promise. We promised we would cut VAT. We have kept that promise. Today I repeat my pledge to the people of Scotland: we will not increase income tax rates for the five years of this parliament."

The figures from the Scotsman/ICM poll, which sampled 1,800 voters, more than any other survey conducted north of the Border, shows support for the Yes,Yes is spread right across Scotland, in marked contrast to the 1979 referendum. Although there could still be a late shift, particularly on the tax power, the Borders appears to be the only area that is set to vote No on the second question.

Labour said: "These are very encouraging figures. It is clear that, as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown explain Labour's positive approach to business and our pledge on tax, people are growing more and more confident in their support for a Yes,Yes vote."

The Think Twice campaign suffered another setback after a leading anti-devolutionist admitted that Baroness Thatcher's dramatic entrance into the debate, in an article in yesterday's Scotsman, had worried its campaign team.

Lord Fraser of Carmyllie, the director of Think Twice, said the former prime minister was right to air her views that a Scottish parliament would endanger the Union. But he added:

He said: "I think a number of us were anxious that her remarks may have been picked up on to create a message which was unhelpful."

A System Three poll for the Herald newspaper in Glasgow today puts support for the first question at 61 per cent, with 20 per cent intending to vote No and 19 per cent undecided. On the second question the poll showed 45 per cent saying Yes, 32 per cent saying No and 24 per cent undecided.

Another ICM poll, for today's Guardian newspaper, shows that there is support for devolution throughout the UK. It found that devolution for Scotland was backed by 42 per cent, with 31 per cent against and 27 per cent don't knows.