Leading Scottish Conservative, Cllr Brian Meek, in the Herald 29 th May 1997.
| 'Messrs Lilley, Dorrell and Hague have already made it plain they are about as well-briefed on Scottish affairs as they are on Mongolian water colours.' Leading Scottish Conservative, Cllr Brian Meek, in the Herald 29 th May 1997. | |
System Three Scotland suggests the establishment of a parliament in tomorrow's referendum could command a majority as large as three to one. But opinion is more divided on whether it should have the controversial power to vary the basic rate of income tax, although a Yes is most likely to that question, too.
Two more prize endorsements made for another good day for the Yes campaign, as merchant banker Sir Angus Grossart and the Duke of Hamilton came out in favour of Home Rule, while Baroness Thatcher's intervention ap-peared to backfire on the No camp.
With the 100-hour campaign blitz reaching its climax, System Three found 61% of those questioned agreeing there should be a parliament, compared with 20% who would vote No, with 19% undecided. This shows support holding steady and opposition dropping, but only within the usual margin for error. If the Undecideds and Don't Knows are taken out of the calculation the likely outcome is a victory for the Yes campaign by 75% to 25%.
On the second question, System Three found support for tax-varying powers at 45%, the lowest level so far, but those opposed were also down by 1% to 31%, leaving the 24% of those questioned who are Undecideds or Don't Knows as the decisive factor tomorrow. When they are excluded from the tax issue, the Yes camp leads by 59% to 41%.
System Three carried out its field work on Saturday - the day of the Princess of Wales's funeral - and Sunday and so the poll suggests Prime Minister Tony Blair was correct in predicting on Monday that the tragic events of last week should have no effect on voter intentions.
The findings are in sharp contrast to those of the referendum in 1979. At this stage in the campaign then, the Yes camp was ahead by only by an estimated 3%: when the result was declared, there was a majority Yes of 52%-48%.
Today, support for the second question (45%) is comparable with support in 1979 for the parliament itself (43%) at this stage in the campaign. But the gap between Yes and No this time has stretched to 14%, making a victory for the Yes camp likely by a margin of approximately six to four when the Undecideds (24%) are removed.
The No campaign's biggest hope lies with this abnormally large group which could theoretically spring a surprise.
The Herald Home Rule Hotline remained unchanged yesterday. By 5.30pm the total number of responses from readers was 6535 and the Yes camp had a lead on both questions of 72% to 28%.
The Scottish Tories, playing host to William Hague, leader of the Opposition, took heart from the second question findings. Chairman Raymond Robertson said they proved there was growing concern about the taxation proposals.
"Even a Scottish parliament without tax-varying powers can still impose extra, backdoor taxes," Mr Robertson said. "If the Scots don't want to pay higher taxes then they must reject both questions."
With only one day of campaigning to go the Yes-Yes cross-party coalition produced another propaganda coup yesterday when Sir Angus Grossart, pillar of the Edinburgh Establishment, spoke up for Home Rule.
Evidently unimpressed with earlier attacks by major industrial and business figures, Sir Angus said the business community should help a new and broadly based "partnership of governance" in Scotland.
Speaking in a personal capacity, he said the Government's devolution proposal achieved the right balance and addressed key issues.
"It also answers satisfactorily two of the main objections made at the time of the 1979 arrangements, that there would be a talking shop with no tax responsibility and that there would be no proportionate representation leading to undue domination of an assembly and under-represented minority parties."
Sir Angus made his fortune with Noble Grossart, one of Britain's most successful merchant banks. He has been involved in almost all of Scotland's major business deals for a quarter of a century.
As one of the leading influences in the Edinburgh financial sector his views of the tax question appear at odds with those of the Conservatives, including Baroness Thatcher, who visited Scotland yesterday and repeated Tory hostility to Home Rule.
"We tend to think of democracy as the will of the majority, expressed in elections freely held," she said. "My friends, democracy is about more than that. A vote, a majority vote, won't make something that is fundamentally wrong, right. It won't turn what is true, untrue."
But Sir Angus said the White Paper answered business concerns that there would be the same corporate taxation within the UK and uniform UK regulation of key sectors. He praised the talent and vision of new management in Scotland and said: "Self-confidence and aspirations are justifiably high. The challenge is to ensure that these same qualities and abilities are available to help the future affairs of Scotland. I have confidence this will be the case.
"Change always comes with a measure of risk and uncertainty but I believe that the overall effect of these proposals will give scope for a new and broadly-based partnership of governance in which business and other constituencies must accept constructive responsibility.
"It is also very important that people of the highest quality are encouraged by all parties to stand for a Scottish parliament and that candidate lists should be tightly reviewed. Business should be helping and supporting that objective."
Sir Angus was the Yes camp's second prize of the day. The Duke of Hamilton, Scotland's premier peer, declared himself a firm supporter of a devolved parliament. The Duke, whose ancestors resisted the Treaty of Union, raised the pre-1707 flag three weeks ago over his home in East Lothian.
He denounced anti-devolutionists as scaremongers. "To suggest that Scots are somehow incapable of looking after their own affairs is nothing less than an insult," he complained. "There is ample evidence that small countries or self-governing regions can prosper when they are given a reasonable degree of autonomy."
The Duke is the elder brother of Lord James Douglas- Hamilton, who was a Tory Scottish Office Minister, but family ties did not prevent him attacking the Conservative record in Scotland. "The reason we need a parliament in Scotland is partly so that we can repair some of the damage done by the last Government to, for example, the health service and our manufacturing industry, and partly to ensure that anti-democratic experiments like using Scotland to rehearse the poll tax can never happen again."
The SNP claimed The Herald poll showed the Yes-Yes campaign was "out of sight on both questions" in the referendum race. "But there will be no complacency and the Yes-Yes campaign and all three of Scotland's parliamentary parties will work flat out until the last hour for a decisive Yes-Yes result which will move Scotland forward."
A Labour Party spokesman said: "We believe that as the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer continue to explain our tax and business pledges, so more and more people will understand that a Scottish parliament will act in the interests of Scotland. We intend to continue campaigning and explaining our position and as the situation continues to improve we are confident we can get the Yes-Yes vote we want."
An ICM poll in the Scotsman found 63% in favour on the first question, and 25% against, with 12% don't knows. On question two, 48% were in favour, 40% against and 12% don't knows.
The Welsh vote on devolution is too close to call, according to a Guardian ICM poll. The survey predicted a low turnout with 37% supporting the yes vote, 36% against and 27% still undecided. In the UK as a whole 42% agreed with a Scottish parliament with 41% in favour of a Welsh assembly. - Sep 10
| Date | Option | All parties | SNP | Labour | Lib Dem | Con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  | |||
| June 97 | For | 64 % | 89 % | 70 % | 55 % | 18 % |
| Against | 21 % | 75 % | ||||
| Undecided | 15 % | |||||
| July 97 | For | 68 % (+ 4 %) | 93 % (+ 4%) | 74 % (+ 4 %) | 56 % (+ 1%) | |
| Against | 21 % (+ 0%) | 16 % | 35 % | |||
| Undecided | 10 % (- 5 %) | 10 % | ||||
| August 97 | For | 65 % (-3 %) | 86 % (- 7 %) | 72 % (- 2 %) | 42 % (-14 %) | 20 % |
| Against | 19 % (- 2 %) | 13 % (- 3 %) | 44 % (+9 %) | 61 % | ||
| Undecided | 16 % (+ 6 %) | 15 % (+ 5 %) | 13 % | 19 % | ||
| 2 September 97 | For | 61 % (-4 %) | ||||
| Against | 23 % (+ 4 %) | |||||
| Undecided | 18 % (+ 2 %) | |||||
| 10 September 97 | For | 61 % (+0 %) | ||||
| Against | 20 % (-3 %) | |||||
| Undecided | 19 % (+ 1 %) |
| Date | Option | All parties | SNP | Labour | Lib Dem | Con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | |||
| June 97 | For | 53 % | 74 % | 57 % | 50 % | 14 % |
| Against | 28 % | 45 % | 77 % | |||
| Undecided | 19 % | |||||
| July 97 | For | 56 % (+ 3 %) | 80 % (+ 6 %) | 60 % (+ 3 %) | 43 % (- 7 %) | 14 % (+ 0 %) |
| Against | 26 % (- 2 %) | 23 % | 39 % | |||
| Undecided | 18 % (- 1 %) | 18 % | ||||
| August 97 | For | 54 % (- 2 %) | 72 % (- 6 %) | 58 % (- 2 %) | 38 % (- 5 %) | 22 % (+ 6 %) |
| Against | 27 % (+ 1 %) | 15 % | 25 % (+ 2 %) | 45 % (+ 6 %) | 61 % | |
| Undecided | 19 % (+ 1 %) | 17 % | ||||
| 2 September 97 | For | 47 % (-7 %) | ||||
| Against | 32 % (+ 5 %) | |||||
| Undecided | 21 % (+ 2 %) | |||||
| 10 September 97 | For | 45 % (-2 %) | ||||
| Against | 31 % (-1 %) | |||||
| Undecided | 24 % (+ 3 %) |
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