 | 'This represents a very dramatic turnaround over the period of eight months since August 2007. The poll suggests that, based on the SNP's performance in power since the May election, public confidence in the ability of Scotland to run its own affairs as an independent state has increased.' TNS managing director Chris Eynon, 13 th April 2008. |  |
INDEPENDENCE HAS taken a dramatic lead in a new opinion poll on Scotland's constitutional future.
An exclusive TNS System Three poll has found that 41% of Scots want the SNP government to negotiate an independence settlement, compared to 40% who are opposed to breaking up the UK.
The extraordinary poll results mark one of the few occasions in which independence has outpolled support for the union.
First minister Alex Salmond said the result showed Scots were now ready to vote for a separate Scottish state in a referendum.
The Scottish government last year laid out its plans in a white paper for a referendum on independence.
TNS System Three has since conducted a tracker poll based on the SNP administration's favoured referendum question, namely whether "The Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".
The latest findings, which were gathered between March 26 and April 4, show that 41% of the 977 respondents agreed that the Scottish government should negotiate an independence settlement.
This contrasts with 40% of people who did not agree with the SNP's number one priority, while 19% said they did not know how they would vote in a referendum.
TNS's first poll on the SNP government's question, in August, revealed that 50% of Scots were opposed to independence, compared to 35% of respondents who were in favour.
The polling firm's next snapshot of opinion, in November, revealed the gap had narrowed to four points, with opposition at 44% and support at 40%. Support for a negotiated independence settlement has risen by 6% since August, while opposition to separation has dropped by 10% over the same period. The number of "don't knows" has increased by 4% in eight months.
The results are broadly in line with polling data published last week by Scottish Opinion, which found that 41% of respondents approved of independence, with 43% disapproving.
The lead for independence will fuel calls by the Nationalist administration for MSPs to back a constitutional referendum. Salmond has made a poll in 2010 the key plank of his administration.
The referendum policy recently received a boost after entrepreneur Sir Tom Hunter called for a plebiscite on independence.
The increased support for independence comes on the eve of Salmond taking his government's "national conversation" to Brussels later this month.
The seminar will see the First Minister try to persuade a European audience of the benefits of Scotland being a full member state of the EU.
First minister Alex Salmond said: "The poll is further and dramatic evidence that as the SNP delivers good government in the devolved areas, so support for Scotland to be governed equally well in all areas with independence is surging.
And the poll clearly indicates that Westminster attempts to bully Scotland and the Scottish government are also boosting support for equality for Scotland, and a parliament with full powers.
"People want a government that will speak up for Scotland - not shut up for London. It is a tremendous boost for the SNP in the run up to our conference next week - it will have our opponents choking on their cornflakes."
Labour MSP Jackie Baillie said: "There is no doubt that the vast majority of Scots don't want an end to the Union, and the SNP are well aware of that. Scots want to walk tall in the Union, not walk out."
The convener of the Independence Convention, Elaine C Smith, said: "This poll is welcome, but the support for independence is something we have known about for some time. The Scottish people must now have their right to speak in a referendum."
TNS managing director Chris Eynon said: "This represents a very dramatic turnaround over the period of eight months since August 2007. The poll suggests that, based on the SNP's performance in power since the May election, public confidence in the ability of Scotland to run its own affairs as an independent state has increased."
The polling data also comes as new figures appear to show that 500,000 households in Scotland will be adversely affected by tax changes in the UK government's 2007 budget.
Prime minister Gordon Brown has been criticised for abolishing the 10 pence rate of tax, which had been introduced to benefit low income-workers.
According to figures produced by the Scottish government, 680,000 households north of the border will experience a decrease in income, while 500,000 will witness a fall in their net income.
Independence has taken a dramatic lead in a new opinion poll on Scotland's constitutional future.
An exclusive TNS System Three poll has found that 41% of Scots want the SNP government to negotiate an Independence settlement, compared to 40% who are opposed to breaking up the UK.
First minister Alex Salmond said the result showed Scots were now ready to vote for a separate Scottish state in a referendum.The Scottish government last year laid out its plans in a white paper for a referendum on Independence.TNS System Three has since conducted a tracker poll based on the SNP administration's favoured referendum question, namely whether "The Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".The latest findings, which were gathered between March 26 and April 4, show that 41% of the 977 respondents agreed that the Scottish government should negotiate an Independence settlement.
This contrasts with 40% of people who did not agree with the SNP's number one priority, while 19% said they did not know how they would vote in a referendum.
TNS's first poll on the SNP government's question, in August, revealed that 50% of Scots were opposed to Independence, compared to 35% of respondents who were in favour.
The polling firm's next snapshot of opinion, in November, revealed the gap had narrowed to four points, with opposition at 44% and support at 40%. Support for a negotiated Independence settlement has risen by 6% since August, while opposition to separation has dropped by 10% over the same period. The number of "don't knows" has increased by 4% in eight months.
The results are broadly in line with polling data published last week by Scottish Opinion, which found that 41% of respondents approved of Independence, with 43% disapproving.
First minister Alex Salmond said: "The poll is further and dramatic evidence that as the SNP delivers good government in the devolved areas, so support for Scotland to be governed equally well in all areas with Independence is surging.
"And the poll clearly indicates that Westminster attempts to bully Scotland and the Scottish government are also boosting support for equality for Scotland, and a parliament with full powers.
"People want a government that will speak up for Scotland - not shut up for London. It is a tremendous boost for the SNP in the run up to our conference next week - it will have our opponents choking on their cornflakes."
SNP depute Leader Nicola Sturgeon welcomed the poll and pointed out that this was the second poll in recent days to show a surge in support for Independence.
"The TNS System Three poll is further and dramatic evidence that as the SNP delivers good government in the devolved areas, so support for Scotland to be governed equally well in all areas with independence is soaring," she said.
"Just this month, many of our key measures in government have taken effect including the phased abolition of prescription charges, restoring free education in Scotland, freezing the Council Tax, and cutting business rates.
"And the poll clearly indicates that Westminster attempts to bully Scotland and the Scottish Government on issues such as threatening to withhold Council Tax benefit, trying to block a local income tax, and withholding prisons spending are also boosting support for equality for Scotland, and a parliament with full powers. Labour's London-based aggressive and negative campaign is getting a strong reaction in Scotland.
"The other parties are running scared of the right of the people to choose Scotland's future in a democratic referendum and no wonder, on the basis of these figures.
"The other party leaders are deeply split on the issue, and are finding it impossible to justify refusing the people of Scotland that basic democratic right."
The TNS System Three poll reflects the proposed question for an independence referendum that the Scottish Government contains in the National Conversation White Paper on Scotland's future.
TNS System Three have asked the same question twice previously, with support for independence moving forward from a 15 point deficit last August to being ahead for the first time since last year's Scottish Parliament election now. The poll was sampled between 26 March and 4 April.
Agree or disagree to Scottish independence (changes since last August in brackets)
- April 2008
Agree: 41% (+6)
Disagree: 40% (-10)
Don't know: 19% (+4)
- November 2007
Agree: 40%
Disagree: 44%
Don't Know: 16%
- August 2007
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 50%
Don't Know: 15%
* Last week the Progressive Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail poll asked if people approve or disapprove of Scotland becoming an independent country. It also showed a surge in support for independence from last summer. The changes since the last identical poll in the Daily Mail (published in August 2007) are in brackets.
Yes: 41% (+10)
No: 43% (-6)
Don't know: 16% (-4)
It has long been the conventional wisdom in Scotland that Scottish voters are essentially constitutional opportunists. They may support the SNP in Holyrood elections, to "fight Scotland's corner", but in the end they will always vote to stay in the UK. Historically, support for independence has always lagged behind support for the Scottish National party. But perhaps for not much longer.
The TNS System Three poll in the Sunday Herald is the first to show a slim majority for independence along the lines proposed by the SNP. TNS asked the very question that the SNP intend to put in their constitutional referendum pencilled in for 2010: "The Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state: Yes or No." Of those asked 41% said yes and 40% said no. Only last August, the same poll registered a 15% lead for the noes.
This follows a poll last week by Scottish Opinion which also showed support for independence surging over the 40% mark on the same question. We can't say conclusively that Scots have made up their minds to leave the UK, but there is no doubt that something is stirring in the undergrowth. It suggests that Alex Salmond may now be succeeding in his drive to convert support for his party into support for leaving the UK. The question is, why?
Now, obviously, the impressive performance of the SNP minority administration in Holyrood over the last year has had something to do with this. Salmond has delivered a masterclass in nationalist populism, scrapping university fees, abolishing prescription charges, freezing council tax. However, the really interesting question is why Gordon Brown, for all his immersion in Scottish politics, has had no answers to all this. Clearly, his mind has been elsewhere.
Most commentators believed that Scots would begin lose their affection for nationalism as soon as Gordon Brown became prime minister last autumn. After all, what better advert for the Union than to have one of the most respected Scottish politicians in Downing St. It showed that Scotland still mattered and that Scotland could have a voice at the very highest levels of UK government. Unfortunately, Brown has been an unmitigated disaster for Labour in Scotland, and not just because of his reputation as a ditherer.
He installed his protege Wendy Alexander - without an election - as leader of the Scottish party, and plunged Labour into its worst crisis since the resignation of Henry McLeish as first minister in 2001. Alexander was supposed to be the fresh new face of Labour, but she has emerged as a deluded opportunist who claims to be "socialist" while getting caught up in a row about illegal donations from property developers; who mounts campaigns against cuts in services even as her mentor, Gordon Brown, was cutting the funding to pay for them.
Brown's recent threats to cut off council tax benefits and to overrule the Scottish parliament's power to introduce local income tax were politically inept. This just allowed the SNP to paint Labour as neocolonial governors and defenders of the hated council tax. The increase in whisky duty in the budget was so unpopular that even Wendy Alexander's husband, the economist Professor Brian Ashcroft, condemned it.
Perhaps worst of all, the abolition of the 10p tax band has hit Scots hard. The working poor are a depressing reality of modern Scotland and around 500,000 low-paid employees are likely to lose out as a result of this tax increase. Worse, Brown has offended the very social democratic Scotland that Wendy Alexander has been trying to appeal to in her recent speeches in which she claimed - improbably - to be dedicated to "the redistribution of wealth".
With political incompetence on this scale it is hardly surprising that Salmond has had a good year in office. The sense of dynamism in the new Scottish executive has clearly impressed Scottish people and converted their latent nationalism into something more overtly political. Yet the stubborn fact remains that everything the SNP has done has been within the terms of the devolution settlement - so in a sense this has been a success for devolution, not independence. It took the SNP to discover just how radical the Scotland Act really is.
The SNP is now urging Scots to move to the next level - full political independence. They seem to be nibbling, but there is a studied vagueness about exactly what full-scale independence would actually mean. The SNP propose to remain within the EU, retain the Queen as head of state, and keep sterling as Scotland's currency, at least for the time being. This looks more like federalism, or perhaps confederalism than old-style 19th century nation-state nationalism. It could even be a form of "devolution max" that is being proposed by the Liberal Democrats.
The real problem for Labour could be that the Scots are losing their fear of independence because it no longer seems to mean border posts at Gretna Green. Some in the Labour party believe that Brown should halt the slide and call Alex Salmond's bluff by holding an early referendum on independence. This would force the SNP to define independence and force the Scots to choose. However, there is no sign that Gordon Brown is in any fit state right now to stage a constitutional referendum - especially since he has just refused to contemplate one on the EU treaty.
Brown's implosion couldn't have happened at a worst time for the union - just as nationalists have entered government in all three devolved administrations. This prime minister seems to be incapable of doing very much at all now that his cabinet is in revolt. Labour's opinion poll slide in the UK and Scotland could have even more serious consequences. If Brown loses his majority at the next general election in Westminster, there could be a protracted period of constitutional instability in Westminster.
If the Conservatives take over in Westminster, then Scottish MPs will likely be barred from voting on nominally English legislation under the "English votes for English laws" policies of David Cameron. The Barnett Formula will be scrapped and Scotland will likely assume responsibility for its own tax-raising. It could be that the fall of Gordon Brown will be the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom.
First Minister Alex Salmond returns to the political fray this week after the Easter break buoyed by another poll that suggests he may be gradually winning the argument for independence.
The latest tracker poll by TNS System Three suggests a narrow majority in favour of independence by 41% to 40% over those who would prefer to remain in the UK, but, as in the case of another poll last week, it is the trend that tells the real story.
Mr Salmond will believe that he is on a winning track, allowing rows to bubble up with the Treasury or Scotland Office - fights as often picked by Westminster rather than Holyrood - and then portraying Scotland as being "bullied" by London.
Whatever the reason, and despite recent spats over local income tax or council spending, it may also be that Scots in general think the SNP is making a decent fist of running a government. The point about the TNS polls is that they now show a trend.
They have asked the question a Salmond government would wish to put to a referendum in 2010, a straight yes or no to the proposition: "The Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the UK so that Scotland becomes an independent state."
Commissioned by the the Sunday Herald, the first poll last August showed 50:35 support for the Union over independence. By November that had narrowed from 15 points to just four, 44:40.
Now the latest poll, conducted in the last days of March and the beginning of April puts independence support ahead.
Last week there was a similar trend in a second snapshot by Scottish Opinion. Last August, support for the Union led by 18 points, a 49:31 lead, but by this months that had narrowed to just two points, 43:41.
Mr Salmond claimed the actions of the Westminster "bullies" would only increase calls for independence, adding: "The more Westminster tries to lay down the law north of the Border in clearly devolved areas, the greater the support there will be for independence and equality for Scotland.
"Bullies always get their comeuppance, and the reaction to this behaviour from London will be no different. Whoever is running London Labour's campaign of aggression against the Scottish Government, one thing is clear - it isn't anyone based in Scotland, or with a scintilla of understanding of Scotland."
Mr Salmond also used a newspaper article to state the case for independence, saying: "In opposing independence, the unionist parties demonstrate a poverty of vision for Scotland, forever relegating Scotland to a parochial role as part of an unequal Union."
But Labour leader Wendy Alexander insisted a "steady majority" of Scots rejected independence. She argued that Scotland still benefited from the Union and the co-operation that it brought between the countries.
And she said "all the available evidence" indicated that even at times when oil prices were high an independent Scotland would struggle to maintain existing levels of public services.
Ms Alexander stated: "The people of Scotland know that in any partnership there will be good times and bad times and when one partner is down, the others reach out a helping hand.
"Throughout the three centuries of the United Kingdom partnership, this has been the case and the reason why it has survived and prospered."
Things fall apart; the centre does not hold. Last summer most of us in the McChattering classes thought that, once "capability" Gordon Brown entered Number 10, many Scots would start to lose their infatuation with nationalism and revert to their traditional allegiance to Labour. Hasn't happened. Indeed, the moral and political disintegration of Gordon Brown's leadership, which this column examined last week, may now be one of the factors that hastens the disintegration of the UK.
It's just that no-one ever thought it could possibly be as bad as this. Fights breaking out in cabinet; ministers jostling for the succession; a paralysed Prime Minister unable to make decisions; an unprecedented collapse in the UK government's poll ratings. And all this at the very moment when nationalists have entered government in all three devolved legislatures. There are times when history seems to be pursuing a logic of its own. In many ways, nationalism is an anachronism in this global financial village, and yet the Scots appear to be turning to it as they never did in the days when Scotland had its own autonomous industrial economy. Recent polls, such as the TNS System Three in yesterday's Sunday Herald have shown a steady increase in support for independence over the past year.
Of course, the performance of the minority SNP administration in Holyrood has had a lot to do with this. Yet, when you think of it, the remarkable thing is that the nationalists are still in government at all, one year on, with only 47 MSPs out of 129. Alex Salmond would never have got the keys to Bute House had the unionist parties got their act together last May. Once over the threshold, there was no stopping him. The Scottish voters have been given a masterclass in radical nationalist populism - cutting prescription charges, saving accident and emergency units, abolishing student loans, axing bridge tolls etc.
The real surprise is that Gordon Brown, for all his intimate knowledge of Scottish politics, has had no answer to this, apart from a risible campaign to promote Britishness. Perhaps we should have forecast that his protege, Wendy Alexander, would be further disaster for Labour in Scotland - though I certainly didn't. She seemed to represent the way forward for Scottish Labour: female, intelligent and open-minded about constitutional reform. But she has mounted campaigns against cuts in services even as her mentor, Gordon Brown, cuts the funding to pay for them.
Scots voters have had a masterclass in nationalist populism.
To complete the picture, Gordon has installed in the Scottish Office a clutch of ministers who seem determined to pursue a petty-minded and punitive campaign against Scots for the crime of voting SNP. The threats to cut off council tax benefits and to overrule the Scottish Parliament's power to introduce a local income tax were as offensive as they were politically inept. This allows the nationalists to paint Labour as neo-colonial overlords and defenders of the unpopular council tax - and may also give Salmond an excuse for not introducing his own dubious alternative while blaming Westminster.
The whisky tax in the budget was so unpopular that even Wendy Alexander's husband, the economist Professor Brian Ashcroft, condemned it. Labour's Scottish ministerial team declared their intention to take powers back from the Scottish Parliament, even as Alexander was promising to extend them. Westminster has blocked a ban on air weapons and attacked the Scottish Government for rejecting nuclear power and opposing Trident. Then there was al-Megrahi, the oath of allegiance to the Queen, the £40m elections botch up . . . it just goes on and on.
Brown must see how damaging this all is, yet he has done nothing to mitigate the emerging disaster. Perhaps his attention is elsewhere. The abolition of the 10p tax band was not intended to hit Scotland, but it will because low pay is so prevalent here. It also offends against the moral sentiments of Scots who don't see why non-doms and hedge-fund managers deserve to pay less tax than the working poor.
With political incompetence on this scale, it's not surprising that Alex Salmond has had a good year. However, it has long been the conventional wisdom - in this column as elsewhere - that despite the high approval ratings for the SNP minority Government, the Scots were essentially constitutional opportunists who might flirt with nationalism, but would always, in the end, vote to remain in the UK. But even this is now brought into question.
Yesterday's TNS System Three poll, indicating a slim majority in favour of negotiated independence on the SNP's terms - 41% for to 40% against - cannot be ignored. Only last August, TNS was registering a 15% lead for staying in the Union. A Scottish Opinion poll last week also showed independence running neck-and-neck with the Union - 41% for; 43% against. It's too early to say that Scots are now committed to leaving the UK, but something is certainly stirring in the undergrowth of Scottish public opinion. We may now have to start thinking about independence as a realistic option for Scotland.
Yet again, this seems counterintuitive because the present financial climate doesn't look at all propitious for the cause of independence. It's a cruel world out there - look at what's happening in Iceland, where a small independent country has had to increase interest rates to 15% to fight off international financial predators. The Irish tiger is looking pretty sick, too. In the past, at times of national emergency, the Union has generally been strengthened by a collective sense that we are "in this together".
That may still hold true. The impact of the financial turbulence has yet fully to hit home in Scotland, and when it does Scots might again seek security in the Union. Then again, they might not. After having had a taste of autonomy over the past year, I don't see much enthusiasm for returning to the old dependency culture. There are now so many examples of highly successful small countries in and out of the EU, from Norway to Slovakia, that going it alone no longer means being alone.
Moreover, the rise of the London city state and the fall of the welfare state consensus that united these islands in the half-century after the war, has eroded the ties that used to bind the UK together.
London is now a leading hub of the international plutocracy and barely conscious of the existence of the UK hinterland, whether in England or Scotland. As the economy slides into recession, Scots will be watching very closely to see who wins and who loses. But, right now, the biggest loser is Gordon Brown.
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