 | 'The SNP has opened up an eleven-point gap over Labour in Scotland, the biggest Nationalist lead ever recorded over their rivals by a mainstream polling organisation.' Robbie Dinwoodie, Chief Scottish Political Correspondent in the Herald, 6 th December 2007. |  |
FIRST MINISTER Alex Salmond's plan for a referendum on independence has received a boost after a new poll showed a surge in support for a separate Scottish state. The latest snapshot has revealed that 40% of the population want the Scottish government to negotiate independence with the UK government, a figure that is up 5% in three months.
This contrasts with 44% of people who do not want Scotland to pull out of the UK, which is 6% down from August.
The poll, which was carried out in late November and early December by TNS System Three, has the advantage of not being commissioned by a political party.
The firm shaped its independence poll around the exact referendum question Salmond wishes to put to the Scottish people in 2010, namely whether his administration should "negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".
The result is significant as it shows a clear shift in favour of independence within the past three months.
In TNS System Three's August poll, which was based on the same question, 50% of those polled disagreed with the Scottish government's flagship policy, compared with 35% who agreed. In other words, the gap in support for independence has narrowed from 15% in August to 4% in November.
The survey also includes a detailed breakdown by age, gender and region.
Men, by 47% to 43%, were shown to favour independence, as did young people. Within the 18-24 age bracket, 47% back separation, as opposed to 32% who do not. Of those in the 25-34 demographic, 53% support the break-up of the UK.
However, opposition to independence is still strong among women, as 44% of female respondents declined to support the SNP independence question, compared with 34% who were in favour.
Pensioners, too, remain sceptical. In the 65+ bracket, only 30% agreed with the SNP proposition, while 57% expressed opposition.
The poll findings seem to legitimise Salmond's view that a strong Nationalist performance in government will fuel the demand for independence.
On the other hand, the snapshot was taken before last week's controversy surrounding the Scottish government's actions on the Donald Trump proposal for a golf and housing complex in Aberdeenshire.
TNS managing director Chris Eynon said of the findings: "While a higher percentage continues to oppose than support the independence option, there has been a significant shift in opinion in favour of the proposal. It would appear that, as the SNP administration has bedded in and started to develop its policies, this has enhanced its credibility and increased public confidence in the prospect of an independent Scotland."
A spokesman for the Scottish Liberal Democrats said: "In polls that do not ask people if they support more powers for the parliament within the UK, the figures have a tendency to be all over the place. We know that over the past year, whenever pollsters have given the options of more powers, this has overwhelmingly trumped the status quo and independence."
Deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon said: "This is the strongest level of polling support for independence in almost a year - showing major progress since the last poll - reflecting the impressive ratings of the SNP in government. The trend is very clear, and shows that people are moving to the independence position as they see the success and credibility of the SNP in government. The National Conversation is leading the constitutional debate, and pulling the other parties in its wake."
Dr Peter Lynch, a senior politics lecturer at Stirling University, said: "Alex Salmond will be happy about this. The SNP's aim is to build support for independence by doing well in government. They will use this poll to say, You cannot have a Constitutional Commission without discussing independence.'"
Labour MSP Jackie Baillie said: "The people of Scotland have consistently shown that they are against independence. The SNP must listen to those views and concentrate on the things that really matter to Scots, like tackling crime and antisocial behaviour, creating more opportunities for our young people and improving our health service."
Commenting on the Scottish sample of the YouGov Sunday Times poll today which puts the SNP on 32%, a point ahead of Labour, the Scottish National Party's Business Convener Mr Angus Robertson MP said it was yet another indication of the success of the SNP.
Mr Robertson said:
"This is yet another indication of the success of the SNP, combined with the hugely positive ratings of the Scottish Government.
"The Scottish YouGov poll conducted at the end of November gave the SNP a record 11 point lead over Labour for a Scottish Parliament election, and put us neck and neck with Labour for a Westminster poll - the party's strongest position since the fuel crisis 7 years ago.
"This new poll suggests that the SNP have now moved ahead of Labour for a UK General Election.
"Along with the System Three poll showing a surge in support for independence, it is clear that the trends are all going in the SNP's direction as we look forward to the New Year."
Notes:
The YouGov poll in the Sunday Times includes a Scottish sample of 132 and was conducted between the 13th and 14th of December 2007. It shows the following:
| SNP | 32% |
| Labour | 31% |
| Con | 16% |
| LD | 16% |
| Green | 3% |
| UKIP | 1% |
| BNP | 0% |
| Other | 1% |
While the sample is small, it reflects the finding of the full Scottish YouGov poll commissioned by the SNP, conducted from 28-30 November 2007, sample size 1,111.
Westminster voting intentions (change from 2005 election in brackets)
| SNP | 32% | +14 |
| Labour | 32% | -8 |
| Con | 19% | +3 |
| LD | 12% | -11 |
| Other | 4% |
Scottish Parliament Constituency vote (change from 2007 election in brackets)
| SNP | 32% | +14 |
| Labour | 32% | -8 |
| Con | 19% | +3 |
| LD | 12% | -11 |
| Other | 4% |
The poll also asked: "The SNP has been in government in Scotland for just over 6 months. How do you think the SNP Government has fared so far"
| Well | 63% |
| Badly | 26% |
| Don't know | 12% |
If Gordon Brown thought that the festive season may usher in a change in Labour's fortunes, he was quickly disabused of that notion yesterday morning.
The party's media monitoring unit would have wasted little time in informing the Prime Minister that the latest polls shows support for independence in Scotland surging. And according to a new YouGov poll, the Conservatives' lead over Labour is now at a level not seen since Margaret Thatcher was in her pomp. Even more significantly, that poll revealed that Tory support now stands at 45% - 13 points clear of Labour and at a level which, if repeated at the next General Election, would see David Cameron entering Downing Street with a workable majority.
A glance north of the border would also show Mr Brown that support for Scottish independence has soared to 40% on the back of the SNP's impressive first six months in government.
According to a System Three poll in the Sunday Herald, 40% of Scots want to see the end of the United Kingdom - a rise of five percentage points on four months ago and the strongest support for independence in nearly a year.
At the same time, support for the status quo has fallen from 50% to 44%.
Labour will no doubt point to the fact that the poll took place at the height of the funding row which engulfed Wendy Alexander and before the controversy over the Scottish Government's handling of Donald Trump's golf resort application hit the headlines. They will also say that the majority of Scots still want to remain part of the UK, and that when presented with a simple "independence or status quo?" question, the results differ from when an alternative is offered for more powers for Holyrood.
However, it is clear that whichever way the party looks, the outlook for Labour seems decidedly bleak.
Labour's opponents were quick to capitalise on the findings. Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, said the independence poll reflected the "major progress" the SNP was making: "The trend is very clear, and shows that people are moving to the independence position as they see the success and credibility of the SNP in government.
"The poll demonstrates that as the SNP governs well in devolved areas, more and more people are persuaded of the positive case that Scotland can be governed equally well in all areas."
Closer examination of the YouGov poll makes particularly grim reading for the Prime Minister.
Mr Brown's approval rating - the difference between those who say he is doing a good job and those who say he is doing badly - slumped to minus 26%, down from minus 10% last month.
That compares with the 48% positive approval rating he enjoyed in August - an incredible 74% turnaround in his fortunes.
In contrast, Tory leader David Cameron had a positive rating of 20%.
Coming in the wake of the Labour funding rows, the loss of the details of 25 million people by HM Revenue and Customs and the gaffe-strewn handling of Mr Brown's decision not to hold a General Election, it is unsurprising that Labour is taking such a hammering.
What will be vexing the party's high command, though, is whether they have enough time to turn the situation around, even with the next election potentially two years away.
There will also be growing concern in the Labour ranks at Mr Brown's personal popularity in the country. As John Major demonstrated in the 1990s, once a Prime Minister is seen as either error-prone or not in control, it is virtually impossible to win back public admiration.
Yesterday, a cabinet minister tried to dismiss the various problems facing the government as media froth.
David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said: "It doesn't feel like meltdown at all. This is a government getting on with the big and difficult decisions. Big and difficult decisions do arouse opposition, they do arouse concern.
"But I would be much more worried if this was a government that wasn't grasping the difficult decisions, wasn't willing to do the things that are needed to move the country forward.
"In the end what counts are not headlines but ideas, and it's the ideas that this government will in the end live or die by."
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has risen to 40 per cent, according to the findings of a new poll.
The latest snapshot, which is based on the exact referendum question Alex Salmond, the First Minister, wishes to put to the Scottish people in 2010, revealed a 5 per cent surge in support for independence over the past three months.
Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, said the poll reflected the "impressive ratings" of the Scottish National Party in government.
The poll, conducted by TNS System Three, asked whether Mr Salmond's administration should "negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".
The suggestion was backed by 40 per cent of those questioned in the poll, which was carried out in late November and early December.
It showed that 44 per cent said they did not want Scotland to pull out of the UK - 6 per cent down from August.
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