 | 'The SNP has opened up an eleven-point gap over Labour in Scotland, the biggest Nationalist lead ever recorded over their rivals by a mainstream polling organisation..' Robbie Dinwoodie, Chief Scottish Political Correspondent in the Herald, 6 th December 2007. |  |
The Scottish National Party commissioned a Scottish poll from YouGov to measure Holyrood voting intentions. It was conducted from 28-30 November 2007, last Wednesday to Friday, sample size 1,111. (In other words, before the full extent of Labour's leadership crisis in Scotland became apparent.)
The results are (change from May 2007 election in brackets)
Constituency vote
| SNP: | 40% | (+7) |
| Lab: | 29% | (-3) |
| Lib Dem: | 13% | (-3) |
| Con: | 12% | (-5) |
| Other: | 6% |
Regional vote:
| SNP: | 34% | (+3) |
| Lab: | 26% | (-3) |
| Con: | 13% | (-1) |
| Lib Dem: | 13% | (+2) |
| Green: | 9% | (+5) |
| SSP: | 3% | (+2) |
| Sol: | 1% | |
| Oth: | 2% |
Seats prediction
Running these figures through the Weber Shandwick Scotland Votes model gives the following seat numbers:
| SNP: | 51 |
| Lab: | 37 |
| Lib Dem: | 16 |
| Con: | 15 |
| Green: | 9 |
| SSP: | 1 |
Note: The last YouGov poll on Holyrood voting intentions can be accessed here.
SNP Depute Leader Ms Nicola Sturgeon MSP said:
"These are sensational poll figures the popularity of the SNP and Scottish Government is soaring on the back of a highly successful budget and policy programme that is delivering for the people.
"Six months into government, and the SNP has chalked up a record poll lead and that is even before the full extent of Labour's leadership crisis in Scotland became apparent.
"The mood of optimism sweeping Scotland is continuing apace."
Note: The following aspects of the poll have previously been released:
1. The SNP has been in government in Scotland for just over 6 months. How do you think the SNP Government has fared so far:
| Well: | 63% |
| Badly: | 26% |
| Don't know: | 12% |
Among Tory voters it is 56% well to 32% badly; among Labour voters 52% to 38%; and among Lib Dem voters 64% to 32%.
The last time YouGov polled on Scottish Government satisfaction ratings, 60% of Scots thought it was doing a good job, and 27% a bad job (1-4 October) so approval for the Scottish Government is actually INCREASING six months into government.
2. Thinking about the performance of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister and Alex Salmond as First Minister of Scotland, which one do you think is doing a better job?
| Alex Salmond: | 50% |
| Gordon Brown: | 22% |
| Neither: | 21% |
| Don't know: | 7% |
3. Thinking about the performances of the political party leaders since the Scottish election in May, who has impressed you most?
| Alex Salmond, SNP: | 46% |
| Wendy Alexander, Labour: | 10% |
| Annabel Goldie, Conservative: | 9% |
| Nicol Stephen, Lib Dem: | 4% |
| Don't know: | 31% |
The poll was conducted before the full extent of Labour's leadership crisis in Scotland became apparent.
Among Labour voters, Alex Salmond is backed by 34% - well ahead of Wendy Alexander at just 24%.
Among Lib Dem voters, Alex Salmond is backed by 39% - more than three-times the 12% who favour Nicol Stephen!
Among Tory voters, Annabel Goldie only just shades Alex Salmond by 31% to 27%.
4. "If you had to choose which of the following words would best sum up how you would rate Gordon Brown as the Prime Minister up to now?"
| Impressive: | 18% |
| Disappointing: | 64% |
| Don't know: | 18% |
Note: 44% of Labour voters think that Brown has been disappointing more than the 39% who think he has been impressive!
5. "You may have heard about the recent revelations about unlawful donations to the Labour Party. Does this information make you more or less likely to trust Gordon Brown as Prime Minister?"
| More likely to trust Gordon Brown: | 3% |
| Less likely to trust Gordon Brown: | 33% |
| No change - I would NOT trust him anyway: | 22% |
| No change - I would trust him anyway: | 31% |
| Don't know: | 12% |
Note: 21% of Labour voters are less likely to trust Brown, compared to 7% who are more likely to trust him - 3 to 1 against even among Labour voters.
The SNP has opened up an eleven-point gap over Labour in Scotland, the biggest Nationalist lead ever recorded over their rivals by a mainstream polling organisation.
The surge can only be explained by the performance of the Salmond government and the troubles of Wendy Alexander's Holyrood opposition.
In August YouGov asked the standard voting intention questions for a Sunday newspaper and found that Labour and the SNP were deadlocked at 32% each, around the level of the outcome of last May's election.
On exactly the same polling method, the latest YouGov poll shows that the Nationalists have stretched their lead to 11%. It showed 40% of voters would opt for the SNP at a Holyrood election against only 29% for Labour.
The poll last week was commissioned by the SNP, but the questions asked were standard within YouGov methods.
The SNP currently has one more seat than Labour, but according to the poll results the Nationalists could enjoy a 14-seat lead.
The poll came as First Minister Alex Salmond commemorated the start of Hanukkah, the Jewish Festival of Lights, yesterday by visiting a Jewish school and a synagogue.
Mr Salmond met pupils from Calderwood Lodge Primary in East Renfrewshire, Scotland's only Jewish school, where he had a brief Hebrew lesson. He then went to the Scottish Council of Jewish Communities and their synagogue in Giffnock.
The SNP is running at it's highest Holyrood opinion poll ratings for seven years, it has revealed.
A YouGov poll commissioned by the Nationalists puts them at 40% in the constituency vote, 7% up from what they achieved in the May elections.
Labour have fallen 3% to 29%, the Liberal Democrats by 3% to 13%, and the Tories by 5% to 12%.
On the regional vote the SNP have gone up by 3% to 34% while Labour have fallen by the same amount to 26%.
The Tories have dropped 1% to 13%, the Lib Dems have gained 2% to 13% - and the Greens are up 5% at 9%.
The party said the poll, conducted from November 28-30, was its biggest lead since the fuel crisis in October 2000.
SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "These are sensational poll figures - the popularity of the SNP and Scottish Government is soaring on the back of a highly successful budget and policy programme that is delivering for the people.
"Six months into government, and the SNP has chalked up a record poll lead - and that is even before the full extent of Labour's leadership crisis in Scotland became apparent."
SUPPORT for the SNP in Lothian has increased by three percentage points since the Holyrood elections in May.
A regional breakdown of a YouGov opinion poll commissioned by the SNP shows the party on 32 per cent of the constituency vote compared to 29 per cent at the elections. Labour is down eight points to 24 per cent, the Lib Dems down four to 17 per cent and the Tories up four to 21 per cent.
The poll found nationally the SNP was enjoying an 11 point lead, with 40 per cent support.
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