 | 'Scotland is moving forward and there will be a theme in the election that we don't want to see Westminster dragging us back again.' First Minister of Scotland, the Rt Hon Alex Salmond, MSP MP, 1 st October 2007. |  |
| 'Scotland is moving forward and there will be a theme in the election that we don't want to see Westminster dragging us back again.' First Minister of Scotland, the Rt Hon Alex Salmond, MSP MP, 1 st October 2007. | |
As speculation about an autumn election continues, the SNP pointed to a section from "The Holyrood election 2007: Explaining the results", a study of the Scottish Parliament election conducted by Strathclyde University, which finds that Alex Salmond is more popular than Gordon Brown among voters in Scotland.
The mean ratings (0-10) on leader like/dislike ratings give the following scores:
Alex Salmond: 4.8
Gordon Brown: 4.4
Jack McConnell: 3.9
Tony Blair: 3.8
Among those who identify with no party, Mr Salmond scores 4.5 to Mr Brown's 4.2.
The figures do indicate that the First Minister has a clear edge over the Prime Minister among Scottish voters as we approach a possible General Election.
Average figures for the Scottish samples of 4 UK-wide YouGov and Populus opinion polls over the past month for a Westminster General Election indicate that SNP support is at 35% (change from 2005 in brackets):
SNP: 35% (+17)
Labour: 40% (-)
Con: 11% (-5)
Lid Dem: 9% (-14)
Other: 5%
The SNP are ready for an election - we have over 50 candidates already selected, with the final arrangements being put in place.
Labour in Scotland do not want an election. As reported on Friday, BBC Scotland spoke to 31 of the 39 MPs who represent Scottish constituencies in the days following Gordon Brown's speech to the Labour Party conference and asked if they "would advise the prime minister to hold the general election this autumn".
A total of 10 said "yes" and 19 - including a majority of backbenchers - said "no" - nearly two-to-one against.
An SNP Spokesperson said:
"Labour are hoist on their own election hype. If Gordon Brown does push the button, the SNP are in a powerful position to do well, with solid poll ratings and a popular government.
"And the figures show that Alex Salmond has a clear edge over Gordon Brown in Scotland, including among swing voters.
"If Mr Brown doesn't call an election, then it will look like he took fright and backed off.
"In either event, the SNP will get on with the job of government. Last week saw the SNP take big decisions in revamping the enterprise network to wide business and local government acclaim, and announcing major rail investment as an alternative to the flawed EARL project. These are substantial measures, which show the SNP delivering on our pledges."
First Minister Alex Salmond yesterday said he was confident of "spectacular" SNP gains if Gordon Brown calls a snap General Election.
Mr Salmond's confidence was further boosted by poll findings which showed that he was more popular among Scottish voters than the Prime Minister.
A recent study of May's Holyrood election results found that Mr Salmond scored a popularity rating with the Scottish electorate of 4.8, compared with Mr Brown's 4.4.
Among those who identify with no political party, Mr Salmond scored 4.5 and Mr Brown 4.2.
Speaking on The Politics Show on BBC Scotland yesterday, Mr Salmond said he believed the Prime Minister would call an autumn election and that he was sure the SNP would do well.
He said: "I'm certain the SNP would make an advance and I think that would be a good thing for Scotland."
Mr Salmond added: "(Gordon Brown) has probably reached a stage where the momentum is such it would be difficult to stop now.
"I suspect it started as a bit of a wheeze, something to unsettle the Conservatives, and it's certainly succeeded in doing that.
"But I think there's a danger for Gordon Brown now that he's started the speculation, the momentum has grown and he may be about to be hoist on his own petard, whether he likes it or not."
Recent polls put the SNP on 35% on a Westminster ballot, with Labour on 40%.
The Conservatives are on 11% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.
Mr Salmond said: "I'm sure we'll win seats off the Labour Party and I'm sure we'll do spectacularly well in the popular vote and take seats from the Liberals as well.
"I'm looking for a very considerable advance and we've got every right now to believe that's going to happen.
"Scotland is moving forward and there will be a theme in the election that we don't want to see Westminster dragging us back again."
Mr Salmond will stand down as the MP for Banff and Buchan at the General Election and it was announced yesterday that the SNP's candidate in the seat will be Dr Eilidh Whiteford, a campaigns manager for Oxfam.
As Gordon Brown moves closer to calling an early general election, a little local difficulty in his own backyard will weigh in his calculations: the resurgence of the Scottish National party.
However, a close examination of the electoral arithmetic suggests the government risks losing very few of its 39 Scottish seats at Westminster. One senior Labour adviser said: "Gordon is losing no sleep over Scotland.'
Although the SNP only narrowly pipped Labour in May's election to the devolved Edinburgh parliament, the one-seat majority over Labour was enough to oust the Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition that had ruled Holyrood since the start of devolution in 1999.
The minority administration formed by the SNP represents not only the first time the nationalists have held power at national level but also the end of 50 years' dominance of Scottish politics by Labour.
The resulting disarray in Labour ranks has helped the SNP administration to make a strong start under Alex Salmond, the first minister, and it has been riding high in the opinion polls.
Scottish Labour MPs appear to have little appetite for the fray. A BBC Scotland poll last week of 31 of the 39 found that only 10 would advise the prime minister to hold a general election this autumn, while 19 including a majority of backbenchers said no.
The SNP claimed yesterday: "Labour are hoist on their own election hype. If Gordon Brown does push the button, the SNP are in a powerful position to do well, with solid poll ratings and a popular government."
However, Scottish voters have proved adept at switching their allegiance depending on whether the election is to Westminster or Holyrood. An average of the latest polls of Scottish voters' intentions for a Westminster election put Labour at 40 per cent, the SNP at 35 per cent, Conservatives at 11 per cent and Lib Dems at 9 per cent.
This represents a remarkable 17 percentage point increase in SNP's support since the 2005 general election, when the nationalists took only six of the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster.
Yet this advance is entirely at the expense of the other minority parties: the Liberal Democrats, whose support has plunged by 14 percentage points to 9 per cent; and the Conservatives, whose support is down five percentage points to 11 per cent. Labour's support is unchanged since 2005.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said very few Labour seats would be at risk from an SNP challenge at such levels of support.
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