 | 'The poll also showed that three times as many Scots think the SNP have run an impressive campaign as believe Labour have.' Kate Devlin, Scottish Political Correspondent, in the Daily Telegraph, 3 rd May 2007. |  |
| 'The poll also showed that three times as many Scots think the SNP have run an impressive campaign as believe Labour have.' Kate Devlin, Scottish Political Correspondent, in the Daily Telegraph, 3 rd May 2007. | |
The Scottish National Party is still on course to win an historic victory in Scotland today according to a up-to-the-minute poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph by YouGov last night.
If repeated wheen the polls open at 7am this morning the SNP will take 45 seats to Labour's 39, an increase of one over a similar survey last week.
The exclusive survey of 1,137 voters across every constituency, conducted yesterday, shows that high profile attempts by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to sway voters in the final days of the campaign have had little effect.
It also contradicts recent opinion polls which suggest that Labour had narrowed the gap with the SNP.
Despite the Chancellor's emotional plea for voters to 'come home'to Labour, the party has only slighty closed the distance between itself and the Nationalist.
The YouGov survey shows that the SNP still have a comfortable six-point lead over Labour in the constituency vote, although it has fallen three points since a week ago.
But the Nationalists have increased their lead in the regional 'top up' vote, which determines 56 of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats, from four points to five.
Prof.John Curtice from Strathclyde University, Scotland's leading psephologist, said that if replicated when voters go to the polls today the SNP would take 45 seats, Labour 39, the Conservatives 17, the Liberal Democrats 16, Greens 9 and other parties 3.
Under his calculations neither of the two largest parties would be able to form a majority in the parliament in coalition with just the Liberal Democrats. Labour would still be a seat short if it joined with the Lib Dems and the Greens, meaning it would have to rule as a minority or find support from an independent. However, the SNP could form a majority coalition government with the Lib Dems and Greens.
The Greens are still on target to have a strong showing and win nine seats.
The SNP's increase in the regional vote has come at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, whose share has fallen from 10 to nine per cent.
There was also a slight fall of support for the Lib Dems in the constituency vote, while 'other' candidates saw a one point increase.
In the constituency vote, 37 per cent of those who asked said that they intended to vote SNP, 31 per cent Labour, 14 per cent Liberal Democrat, 13 per cent Conservative and 5 per cent other.
In the regional vote,32 per cent of voters intend to give their backing to the SNP, 27 per cent to Labour, 13 per cent to the Conservatives, 10 per cent to the Lib Dems, 9 per cent to the Greens, and nine per cent 'others'.
The poll also showed that three times as many Scots think the SNP have run an impressive campaign as believe Labour have.
Although the Nationalists have been consistently accused by Labour of avoiding public scutiny of their policies overthe past four weeks, a third of Scots said the SNP fought the most impressive campaign.
By contrast only 11 pr cent of Scots thought Labour had had an impressive election strategy, while eight per cent plumped for the Lib Dems and seven per cent the Tories.
After last week's YouGov survey,Prof Curtice estimated that the SNP would take 44seats, five ahead of Labour on 39.
Among the smaller parties he predicted 17 seats for the Liberal Dmocrats, 17 for the Tories, nine for the Greens and three for other parties or independents.
YouGove findings agree with a final aggregated poll released by the public relations firm Weber Shandwick, which shows the nationalists on course to take five seats more than Labour.
The so-called 'poll of polls' which brings together an amalgamation of opinion polls, conducted before yesterday,preducts that the SNP would be the largest party in the parliament with 48 seats, with Labour five seats behind on 48.
The final voting-intention survey to be conducted before voters go to the polls in today's elections to the Scottish Parliament finds scarcely any trace of the alleged surge in support for the Labour Party being reported elsewhere.
Labour has achieved only a modest narrowing of the gap between it and the SNP in the constituency vote.It has actually lost ground to the Nationalists in the regional vote.
Yesterday and the day before, YouGov re-interviewed a large sample of electors who had previously been interviewed in earlier surveys. Asthe figures in the chart shows, it could find no increase at all in support for Labour support at the regional level and only a one-pont increase at the constituency level. For its part, the SNP is down two points since last week in the constituency vote, but up one point in the regional vote.
Other polls have pointed to a large swing from the SNP to Labour during the past few days. The YouGov survey - more recent than any of the others - suggests that in reality nothing dramatic has taken place.
Support for the SNP in the constituency vote now stands at 37 per cent, down two points since last week. By contrast, support for the Nationalists in the regional vote has edged up from 31 to 32 per cent.
Labour stands almost where it was a week ago - at 31 per cent in the constituency vote (up only a single point) and at 27 per cent in the regional vote (up not at all). Asthe figures make plain, transfers of support among the other parties have also been modest, with only the Liberal Democrats suffering losses. YouGov's respondents are clear in their own minds that Alex Salmond and the SNP have outcampaigned their Labour rivals.YouGov asked: 'Irrespective of which party you support,which of the four main parties ran the most impressive campaign?'
On this basis, the Nationalists trounce Labour by a margin of fully three to one, with 33 per cent applauding the SNP's performance and only 11 per cent Labour's.Few give top marks to either the Liberal Democrats (only eight per cent) and the Scottish Conservatives (only seven per cent).
Calculations by Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University based on YouGov's findings suggest that the SNP, with 45 seats,may actually gain one more seat than was expected last week, with Labour in the same position (39 seats) and the Liberal Democrats, on 16 seats, dropping one. But the probable post-election Holyrood arithmetic remains little changed and the Greens, with a projected nine seats, may well still find themselves playing a pivotal role in the imminent coalition negotiations.
YouGov questioned a representative sample of 1,137 Scottish electors on May 1 and 2. YouGov abides by the rule of the British Polling Council.
Antony King is professor of government at Essex University.
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