 | 'How wong can you get?' Labour groupie, Professor Bill Miller, in the Times, 2 nd May 2007. |  |
| 'How wong can you get?' Labour groupie, Professor Bill Miller, in the Times, 2 nd May 2007. | |
With only 24 hours until voters go to the polls in Scotland, the struggle for power is developing into a neck and neck race. The Nationalists still hold a lead over Labour, but the gap is narrowing, according to The Time's latest opinion poll.
The exclusive Populus poll indicates some movement away from the main parties towards the minor ones as polling day approaches. It also points to the probability of devolved Scotland being goverened by either an SNP-Lib Dem coalition or a third consecutive Labour-Lib Dem partnership, with Nicol Stephen, the Lib Dem leader as the potential 'kingmaker'.
The poll suggests that the recent pro-Union barrage by Tony Blair and Gordon brown, portraying the SNP as pushing a 'tax and turmoil' wrecking agenda, has only limited success.
However, with around one in ten voters still, even at this late stage, undecided the poll will also inevitably lead to nervousness within the SNP. It goes against the other polls in the last week which gave the party a more substantial lead, indicating thattherehas been some slippage in SNP support the closer polling day looms.
Another poll published today, carried out by ICM for the Guardian and Scotsman newspapers, also confirms the SNP lead over Labour has shrunk. Indeed, it shows Labour, because of the semi-proportional nature of the Scottish election, actually winning more seats than the Nationalists.
But, according to Populus, it remains the case that the Nationalists are still on course to become the largest party in Scotland's parliament with Alex Salmond favourite to become First Minister and able to prepare the ground for a referendum on Scottish separation from the rest of the UK in 2010.
However, according to other findings by Populus, support for outright independence has slipped down 1 point from 22 per cent just 12 days ago to 21 per cent and confirming that support at this election for the SNP is based more on anti-Labour sentiment than a pro-SNP one.
On voting intentions, the third Times/Populus poll since the start of the Scottish campaign gives the SNP 33 per cent support on the constituency vote, down 1 percentage point since mid-April, with Labour on 29 per cent, also down 1. The Liberal Democrats are on 15 per cent in the constituency section, down 3, and the Conservatives are flatlining on 13 per cent. The number of correspondents saying that they will use their constituency vote for other parties has gone up 4 percentage points to 10.
In the regional 'top up' list section of the poll, the SNP are down 3 percentage points on 31, Labour are on 28 per cent, up 1, the Lib Dems are on 15 per centage points, down 3, and the Conservatives are again on the same mark they were on 12 days ago at 14 per cent.
According to the poll,in the 129 seat Scottish Parliament, the SNP would have 45 seats, one fewer than the last Populus poll 12 days ago and Labour would be on 43, up one. The Lib Dems would have 23 seats, no change, and the Conservatives would have 17, again no change.The Greens would have one MSP and the other parties and independents none.
Populus interviewed a rndom sample of 1,000 adults in cotland between April 25 and 30.
This election campaign has been a remarkably 'British' affair. Although Tony Brown and Gordon Brown are excited aboutScottish independence, the public has shown little support for the issue. Even the SNP has shown little interest in the issue - beyond proposing a referendum, which they would lose, according to poll figures.
And Labour at Holyrood is not particularly unpopular. The Labour/Lib Dem coalition has not been a disaster.Jack McConnell is as popular now as he was in 2003, and in the Populus polls he has consistently tied with Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, on who would make the best First Minister.
Instead the collapse on the Labour votes has been driven by British issues and British personalities. Labour under Mr Blair is as unpopular in Britain as it was under Michael Foot in the 1980s. Voters north and south of the Border want to, in Mr Blair's own words, 'give him a kicking as he goes out the door'. And that means voting for the main opposition party - Conservative in England, the SNP in Scotland.
It is ironic that such a fundmentally British election may put the SNP in government.That exposes one of the major flaws in the devolution settlement. British governments tend to be most unpopular mid-term and usually suffer massive defeats in local elections.
No doubt those who desgned the settlement hoped that placing Scottish elections mid-term would allow Scots to focus on purely Scottish issues without the distraction of a simultaneous British election. They would be truly, exclusively, Scottish.
How wong can you get? Scots are using these elections to punish an unpopular British government. Scheduling Scottish elections for the mid term of a British government is therefore a recipe for creating conflict.It maximises the chances of partisan conflict between the Scottish and British elections simultaneously would maximise the degree of partisan conflict.
So is tis election a 'very British affair'? Yes it is, in terms of the motivations of voters, which are remarkably similar north and south of the Border. But not in terms of its conseauences. The conseauences will be very Scottish even though the swing against Labour is essentially British.
Bill Miller is Professor of Politics at Glasgow University
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