 | 'The Liberal Democrats, too, can hope to profit if the Greens fall back. Although down on our previous poll, they could still secure 23 seats, well ahead of the Conservatives who seem destined for forth place despite the widely praised performances of Annabel Goldie, the Conservatives' Scottish leader.' Professor John Curtice in the Scotsman, 2 nd May 2007. |  |
A late surge in Labour support has left tomorrow's Scottish Parliament election on a knife edge according to a Scotsman/ICM pollpublished today.
In what has now become the tightest election contest in Scotland for decades, the SNP has retained its lead over Labour - but only just.
If the poll were translated into seats, it would give Alex Salmond a lead of just one seat over Labour.
The SNP would have 43 seats to Labour's 42, with the Liberal Democrats on 23, the Conservatives on 17, the Greens with one and the others three. This would give Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, the opportunity to form a coalition with either the SNP or Labour - without needing to call on Green support.
With 24 hours to go until the plls open, the election is now too close to call.
Alex Salmond has retained his lead over Jack McConnell in the battle for Holyrood - but it is down to a wafer-thin margin.
The SNP is still ahead - by 2 per cent on the constituency vote and 1 per cent on the regional vote - but only just. This would leave just one seat between the two major parties if the poll findings are translated into votes tomorrow.
The SNP would have 43 seats to Labour's 42 with the Liberal Democrats on 23, the Conservatives on 17, the Greens with one and the others three.
ICM found that support for the SNP has remained largely static since the Scotsman's last poll, conducted at the start of the five-week campaign, while Labour's support has grown.
The poll found that the Nationalists are now on 34 per cent (up two points) on the constituency vote and 30 per cent (-1) on the regional list vote.However,Labour has seen its vote go up, to 32 per cent on the constituency vote (+5) and to 29 per cent on the regional vote (+2).
The Liberal Democrat vote has been squeezed, apparently because the contest has increasingly been seen as a two-horse race. Its support fell by three percentage points to 16 per cent on the constituency vote and by one point to 16 per cent on the regional list vote.
One interesting factor however, is the extraordinary difference in the way men and women vote for the Liberal Democrats.
The party enjoys the support of 20 per cent of women in Scotland, but inly 10 per cent of men, something Nicol Stephen, the party leader has been very well aware of, which is why he has been pushing so hard on his children and families agenda.
The Conservatives have seen their support remain relatively static at 13 per cent on both votes (which is no change for the constituency vote and a rise of one point on the regional list).
The clear message from the pollis that Labour's vote has hardened over the past month.It does now appear as if the relentless attacks, by Mr McConnell and other senior Labour figures, on the politics and costs of independence have worked, at least in bringing back some wavering Labour voters.
The idea behind Labour's campaign was to portray this contest as a 'big election', to persuade people that their vote is vital to the future of their country - regardless of their views on Tony Blair or the Westminster government, and this appears to have been successful.
The SNP relied on an opposite strategy, arguing that Scots could vote SNP without having to decide on independence, and the Nationalists were quick to raise issues such as Iraq and Trident, matters they knew would resonate with disillusioned Labour voters.
Alex Salmond also decided to spend as much time as possible meeting voters and as little as he could talking to the press - aware that he was less likely to be tripped up campaigning than he was at a press conference.
What this poll shows is that, while MrSalmond has not made any gaffes and nothing has been done to undermine the SNP campaignm his low-level profile approach has not succeeded in building up the SNP vote.
One intriguing part of the poll is its reflection of the fact that more and more people have decided it is important to vote. At the start of the campaign, only 48 per cent of voters said they were certain to vote.By last weekendm when this last poll was conducted, that had risen by ten percentage points to 58 per cent. That suggests that turnout will be higher this year than the 49 per cent recorded in 2003, and that an increasing number of voters see this as a crucial election.
Although the poll shows Labour gaining ground on the SNP, senior nationalists were privately delighted last night because it will prevent any complacency and give their activists the motivation necessary to fight hard for every vote.
Angus Robertson, the SNP's campaign director, said: 'We are delighted that the SNP has maintained a clear lead throughout this campaign and remains on course to become the largest party. The SNP is taking nothing for granted and is working hard to secure the new government Scotland needs.'
Labour will also be pleased by the poll, which shows that party has narrowed the gap considerably with the SNP, and the election is now in the balance.
A spokesman said: 'We are confident that we are winning the argument.'
Speaking on STV's Scotland Debate programme last night Mr McConnell said: 'We are in a very tight contest in the last week. There are thousands of people across Scotland making up their mind in these last 48 hours. I think it's now neck and neck - very close.'
Mr Stephen said: 'The polls are showing the Liberal Democrats gaining six seats compared to last time. Our focus on positive policies that will make a real difference to the lives of families and children is striking a chord.'
A Conservative spokesman said:'In 24 hours we will have the realpoll and the lesson of the last eight years is that when the people cast their votes, we outperform our predictions.The length and breadth of Scotlandm more and more people know there's only one party fighting for stronger devolution within a stronger UK.'
Another key fature of this poll is the squeeze on the smaller parties.
About 6 per cent is needed for each top-up seat and, with just 4 per cent on the regional list, the Greens would end up with only one seat - Robin Harper in the Lothians.
However, a Green spokesman said: 'Polls rarely get anywhere near accuracy on the Green vote, but we are still looking forward to the election because people will realise that the only way they are going to get action on green issues is first vote Green.'
The poll also suggests that Solidarity's Tommy Sheridan might be returned in Glasgow, Independent Margo MacDonald in Edinburgh, and Jean Turner, the hospitals'campaigner in Strathkelvin and Bearsden.
But this would leave the Scottish Socialist Party facing a total wipe-out, as well as the Scottish Senior Citizen's Unity Party and all the smaller parties who had all hoped that he regional list system would give them a chance of electoral success.
Scots will go to the polls tomorrow in what looks like a nail-biting fight to the finish between Labour and the SNP.
If Labour can persuade some of its disillusioned supporters to swallow their doubts and back the party nevertheless, it might still just deny the SNP top spot. But if the disillusioned stay away, the SNP should still be able to claim a historic victory.
Our ICM Scotsman poll shows that during the course on the campaign, the SNP lead has fallen from five to two points on the constituency vote and by four to just one point on the regional vote. These leads might just be enough for the SNP to emerge narrowly ahead of Labour - but, if so, only just.
This narrowing of of the SNP lead since our last poll has not been occasioned by any significant fall in Nationalist support.Its vote is actually up two points on the constituency vote and only down one on the regional vote. So there is little sign that Labour's attacks on independence have finally hit home and persuaded voters to abandon the Nationalist cause.
But Labour doe appear to have strengthened its own support.Its vote is up five points on the constituency vote and two points on the regional vote. But what remains in doubt is whether it can realise this support in the ballot box tomorrow.
ICM's poll suggests around one in five voters are still not sure how they will vote tomorrow.
Contrary to what has been claimed elsewhere, this is not a particularly high figure. Much the same proportion said they did not know how they would vote in ICM's final polls before the last UK general election.
But this group is very distinctive. Far more of them tell the pollsters they voted Labour in 2005 than said they voted for the SNP.
The experience of past elections suggests that, in the end, around half of the 'don't knows' will return to their former fold.
Labour badly needs this to happen tomorrow. For if it does not, the SNP might be as much as seven points aheadon the constituency vote and four on the regional ballot.
Meanwhile, the SNP have to worry abot the Greens.In a tight race, the SNP's ability to come first in seats will depend crucially on how many list seats they can claim.
The more list seats the Greens claim, the fewer that will be left for the SNP to win.
According toICM, the Greens are on just 4 per cent, somewhat below what they need to keep most of the seven seats they currently have.
But if they should manage just a couple of points more they would keep most of their seats - and, in doing so, deny the SNP the position of largest party.
The Liberal Democrats, too, can hope to profit if the Greens fall back. Although down on our previous poll, they could still secure 23 seats, well ahead of the Conservatives who seem destined for forth place despite the widely praised performances of Annabel Goldie, the Conservatives' Scottish leader.
But there is at least one good piece of news for all the politicians: turnout may well go up.
No less than 58 per cent now say they are certain to vote - ten points higher than just a month ago.
Whether the campaign has affected the outcome is unclear, but at least it seems the close fought election has helped persuade voters that tomorrow's vote does actually count.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University.
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