 | 'That town centre here in Motherwell is a pigsty.' Motherwell & Wishaw MSP and First Minister Jack McConnell, 28 th April 2007. |  |
| 'That town centre here in Motherwell is a pigsty.' Motherwell & Wishaw MSP and First Minister Jack McConnell, 28 th April 2007. | |
Labour's grip on Scotland appeared to be slipping away last night aftera new superpoll found the party was set to lose an election in the country for the first time in half a century.
The new YouGov survey, which is the biggest sample of opinion taken since the campaign beagn, found the SNP to be 8% ahead of Labour in the constituencies and 5% ahead in the regional vote.
The 10% swing from Labour to the Nationalists since 2003 would install Alex Salmond as first minister and unseat some of Labour's most senior MSPs, including health minister Andy Kerr.
It also comes four days before Scotland goes to the polls in what is widely recognised as the country's most important election for decades.
The YouGov poll, which was sponsored by the Economic and Social Research Council, makes grim reading for first minister Jack McConnell as he tries to hold on to power, but it will delight the Nationalists who are on the verge of winning power for the first time in their history.
It has put the Nationalists on 38% of the constituency vote, eight aheadof Labour, with the LibDems trailing on 15% and the Scottish Conservatives in fourth on 12%.
A seat projection based on the poll results gives the SNP 47 MSPs, up by around 20 from the 2003 election, with Labour on 40, down 20% from four years ago. The libDems and Conservatives would each get 18 seats, with the Greens getting five and the SSP one. Such aresult would give the Nationalists and LibDems the narrowest of majorities to form a coalition.
The result, which if replicated on Thursday would end Jack McConnell's political career, would also result in many of his colleagues losing their seats.
A 10% swing would be enough to help the SNP win 18 first-past-the-post seats from Labour, as well as several other berths from the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
In particular, the projection would see the Nationalists unseat health minister Andy Kerr in East Kilbride and former health minister Wendy Alexander in Paisley North.
It would also spell the end for Labour's education minister Hugh Henry in neighbouring Paisley South, deputy communities minister Des McNulty in Clydebank & Milngavie, and deputy enterprise minister Allan Wilson in Cunninghame North.
The YouGov poll is significant as it was based on canvassing the opinion of over 1800 voters, by far the biggest snapshot of the campaign.
It is also similar to the last YouGov poll, which found a nine-point lead for the Nationalists on the constituency vote.
The SNP's momentum has received another boost afterseveral high-profile artists added their names to a newspaper advertisement that endorsed the SNP. Author Christopher Brookmyre, artists Peter Howson and Indie band Mogwai have all climbed aboard the nationalist bandwagon.
The problems facing Jack McConnelland the Labour campaign arealso set to worsen following an interview with chancellor Gordon Brown today on the Sunday Edition TV programme, in which he appeared to downplay the importance of the Holyrood election. He said: 'Look, the only result that matters in the end is when it actually comes to a general election and people decide what they want to do.'
SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said: 'Weare absolutely delighted with this poll - the largest sample of any poll during the camapign. It gives the SNP acommanding lead of 8 points on the constituency vote and 5 points on the list vote.
'The SNP's positive campaign is in lift-off as we enter the last few days,' he added.
A spokesman for the Labour party said: 'The poll is a clear message to voters that they face a real choice on Thursday. If people want a strong and stable economy, with more jobs and investment for schools and hospitals they should vote Labour, or the SNP alternative of high tax, turmoil, instability, cost and risk.'
The SNP is on course match Labour's clout in Scotland's councils, according to a new super-poll.
The survey of nearly 1900 people by YouGov showed the SNP has surged by eight points in the past month in its support at local authority level.
Labour's support fell by five points, leaving the SNP one point ahead, by 30% to 29%.Among those saying they are likely to vote, the SNP lead wasfour points: 32 to 28%.
That registers the first preference vote, in the new council voting system, for which the ballot paper requires the elector to register preferences by number instead of chosing only one candidate.
As a result, such poll findings are only an indication of the balance of support, but because the second and third preferences will have a big influence on the outcome, it is impossible to project results from such a poll.
Labour was always certain to lose ground in council chambers because the new voting system removed its in-built electoral advantage in first-past-the-post ward voting. But it seems clear from this and other polls that Labour dominance, particularly in central Scotland, is in even more trouble than expected.
Under the system, Labour won 33% of the vote in 2003 and 42% of councillors, while the SNP secured 24% of the vote and 14% of wards.
Second and third preferences could be particularly important to smaller parties,but it would be meaningless to survey those. On first preferences, Tories were found to register 14% support, LibDems 13%,independents would get 8% of first votes according to the poll, and the Greens had 4%.
The poll shows the Single Transferable Voting (STV) system itself faces a major hurdle through ignorance of it. Asked, what people knew about the new system, only 28% said they knew about it, 40% said they had heard about it but did notknow any details, and 32% of the sample had not heard about it at all.
James Mitchell, a politics professor at Strathclyde University, interpreteted the findings: 'People are not only willing to vote differently in list and constituency votes, but also in local council elections.
'Given that people are showing some sophistication in using their votes in different ways, you can see this would continue under STV.
'But many people do not understand the system, and it is pretty unlikely they will learn about it by polling day.
'This suggests it would have been better to have local government elections on a seperate day, running a more successful public information exercise in tandem with what the parties were doing.'
The poll's top finding, meanwhile was a large gap in favour of the SNP in Holyrood voting intentions.
As reported in the Sunday newspapers, the SNP was eight points ahead on the constituency voting intentions and five points ahead on regional list votes. The poll found the constituency/regional voting intentions were: SNP 38/32, Labour 30/27, LibDems 15/12 and Conservatives were on 12/14.
The poll was carried out by YouGov for the Economic and Social Research Council, as part of a study by professors from Strathclyde, Lanaster and Sheffield universities. A projection,if applied iniformly throughout Scotland, would mean the SNP winning 46 seats, up from 27 at the 2003 election,Labour oon 40, down by 10 on last time, LibDems would gain one to 18, and Tories remain at 18.
YouGov carried out another poll, published on Friday, that suggested a nine point lead for the SNP and a sharp rise in Green support. But the more recent poll projected Green MSPs falling from seven to five by Friday morning.
FIRST Minister Jack McConnell yesterday admitted the SNP could win Thursday's election.
He made the admission on the day that a YouGov poll showed the SNP remains on course to become the biggest single party at Holyrood.
Mr McConnell told a radio election phone-in: "It looks as if there is at least a possibility that the SNP might win. That should worry people the length and breadth of Scotland."
Campaigning in Aberdeen, he said: "I think there is a real possibility there are two election outcomes this Thursday.
"There are no other possible outcomes and people should decide if they do not support independence, they should vote Labour."
A spokesman for the SNP said yesterday: "Labour's campaign has been negative from day one and Jack McConnell has now accepted that they are in trouble. His comment underlines that it is the SNP that has momentum." The poll put the SNP on 38% in the constituency vote, eight points ahead of Labour, and on 32% in the list vote, five points ahead of Labour.
The Liberal Democrats are running at 15% and 12% respectively, the Tories at 12% and 14%, and the Greens, who are seeking election only to list seats, are running at 6%.
The poll, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, was carried out for the universities of Strathclyde, Lancaster and Sheffield on April 17-23 among 1,872 people - the biggest sample of the campaign.
If the figures translate into seats, the SNP would have 47 to Labour's 40, the Liberal Democrats would have 18, the Tories also 18, while the Greens would have five seats and the Scottish Socialists one.
Support for independence is put at 32% in the poll.
Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat leader Nicol Stephen, while launching his party's environment manifesto in Aberdeen, said the results on Thursday were the ones that mattered. "The Liberal Democrats are doing well in polls suggesting we will increase our number of seats," he said.
An ICM survey for a Sunday tabloid newspaper put support for independence at 41% in Scotland and 56% in England.
SNP leader Alex Salmond said independence was "not a one-way street" and an independent Scotland could rejoin the United Kingdom.
Last night, Mr McConnell urged Scots not to let Iraq "cloud" the issue of how they vote in the Holyrood election.
He made the appeal in a TV debate, which also saw a clash between Mr McConnell and Mr Salmond over the SNP's preferred alternative to the private finance initiative method of funding schools and hospitals.
Mr McConnell accused the SNP leader of "complete and utter fabrication" over the start date of the Nationalists' preferred funding method.
On Iraq, Mr McConnell told the BBC's Scotland Decides - the Leaders' Debate programme in Aberdeen he had no regrets over the removal of Saddam Hussein and believed British troops should come home in an orderly and organised fashion agreed with the government of Iraq.
"I think it's vitally important that one particular issue does not cloud our views on the economic importance of the 300 year-old union," he said.
But Mr Salmond retorted: "People know 146 British soldiers have now died in Iraq, the latest one today, many of them Scottish soldiers."
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