 | 'Even amongst Labour supporters there is lukewarm support for Jack McConnell as First Minister, with only 60% of the party's backers saying he is best for the top job.' Douglas Fraser, Scottish Political Editor, in the Herald, 26 th April 2007. |  |
| 'Even amongst Labour supporters there is lukewarm support for Jack McConnell as First Minister, with only 60% of the party's backers saying he is best for the top job.' Douglas Fraser, Scottish Political Editor, in the Herald, 26 th April 2007. | |
The SNP is ahead in the second of two exclusive polls for the Herald, reversing a previous lead held by Labour.
Nationalists have moved in front on voting intentions for both constituency and regional votes fr the Scottish Parliament.
Labour has dropped sharply back in the race for council votes and is now trailing the SNP on that count too.
As the campaign started last month, mruk research found Labour was four points ahead - one of only two polls to give Labour a lead. Its most recent findings put Labour four points behind on the constituency vote, with the SNP one point ahead on the regional vote, while smaller parties appear to be getting squeezed.
The survey of 1000 Scots showed many remain undecided on how to use their votes next Thursday. That was unusually high at 50 % last month, and has dropped to 43 % in the latest poll, taken between April 13 and 19.
Of those, nearly six out of 10 told pollsters they are certain to vote. Other pollsters and the party canvassers have agreed the high number of undecided voters is a feature of this campaign. Asked how they would vote in an independence referendum, there was less good news for the SNP, however, with the eight-point gap last month - 54% against and 46% for independence - doubling to a 16-point gap this month, 58% against to 42% in favour.
With only a week until polling day, and around a tenth of votes already being cast by postal ballot, the parties are ratcheting up their campaigning to reach those undecided voters, with the Prime Minister and the Chancellor on the Scottish Labour campaign trail yesterday.
While Gordon Brown took aim again at he SNP's 'day one conflict strategy', the Prime Minister began a new tactic of ensuring former Labour voters do not defect in the late stages to Liberal Democrats. The plan is to contrast Labour tough talk on crime with the LibDem approach, portraying its opponents as soft.
The batte for endorsements also heats up today.The SNP wants to retain momentum with a 'Count Me In' slogan, starting the final week with a panel of pensioners who support the SNP pitch to replace the council tax.
Actors Elaine C. Smith and Martin Compston will announce their support for the SNP today, along with leading Scottish artists.
Ms Smith said she had been provoked into declaring her support for the SNP after seeing a group of famous football managers backing the Union in a newspaper advertisement earlier this week.
She told The Herald: 'It feels like blanket support for the Union from the press.I get really frustrated at the attacks, and it's no wonder the punters are turning the other way. It just doesn't seem fair.
The main findings of The Herald's poll show a big gender gap. Women were lagging 33 to 42% behind men in constituency vote support for the SNP, while Labour attracts more women by a 37 to 31% margin. The women's vote has been a key battleground in the campaign. The poll also shows Alex Salmond remains ahead of Jack McConnell in people's view of which leader would make the best First Minister.
The SNP leader was on 25% to the Labour leader on 19%, with the Tories' Annabel Goldie on %% and Nicol Stephen trailing again on 4%. Even amongst Labour supporters there is lukewarm support for Jack McConnell as First Minister, with only 60% of the party's backers saying he is best for the top job.
The poll findings for the constituency/regional vote are: SNP 38/37, Labour 34/36, Lib Dems 13/11, and Conservatives 11/11, with Greens on 3% for top-up regional list seats.
On the constituency vote, that means Labour dropped by four and the SNP gained by four since the March 22 to 27 poll, while Lib Dems dropped two and Tories fell one point. On the regional vote,the SNP was up two and Labour down one point, with LibDems down three and Tories up one.
The SNP has overtaken Labour since the last mruk poll conducted three weeks ago.Labour was narrowly ahead of the SNP then and now the SNP has edged into the lead.
The SNP now has 38% to Labour's 34% of the constituency vote, the opposite of three weeks ago. This represents a significant improvement in the SNP's support compared with the last elections, though the race remains tight
The other parties appear to have been squeezed.The Liberal Democrats'hope of building on their strong performance in the 2005 General Election has not been fulfilled.
Voters are again showing willingness to cast their votes differently in UK and Scottish elections and the battle for third place looks even tighter than for first place.
It also looks likely that the new parliament will see fewer 'Other' MSPs: Greens, SSP and independents.
Business support has been a battleground in this election. This is not only about winning the support of a group who are, afterall, a relatively small minority in the Scottish electorate, but the credibility that business support give a party.
It is also about impressing the wider electorate, especially middle-class voters. In the past, Conservatives commanded overwhelming busines support and the reputation as economically competent.
New Labour challenged the Tories on this ground and we are now seeing the SNP challenge Labour fir the pro-business mantle. The lack of middle-class support for the Conservatives shows how much Scottish politics have changed. Labour and the SNP easily outpoll the Tories amongst those voters who were regarded as natural Tory voters not so very long ago.
The average picture that emerages from the series of polls over the campaign is of the SNP on around 35% in the constituency votes and 34% in the list; Labour on 31% and 30%, the Liberal Democrats on 14% in both; the Conservatives on 12% in both; the Greens around 5% on the list
These averages combine the results of different organisations using different methods at different times but potentially remove discrepancies in any one poll.
Translating polls into seats is always hazardous but an average of the polls suggests the SNP with 49 seats and Labour 45.The Liberal Democrats could end up with 19 and the Tories fewer thqn 14. The Greens would end up with only two, but the variation in support for the Greens makes it difficult to know.
The poll confirms evidence that the SNP has a 'women problem' though,of course, this might equally be described as Labour's 'men problem'.
Despite the swing to the SNP since the last poll there isno difference in perceptions of who would be the best First Minister. Alex Salmond retains a significant lead over Jack McConnell but that lead remains the same as before.
But there is no hiding the problem the Nationalists have when it comes to support for independence. There appears to have been a decline in support for independence over the past three weeks
The paradox of this election is that the party of independence has seen its support rise while support for its raison d'être has fallen.
This is at least partly explained by the SNP's policy of a referendum on independence. Voting for the SNP does not automatically result in independence. However, the referendum will create problems once the election is over.
The swing to the SNP since 2003 looks set to be impressive but it is well short of that required to allow the SNP to have an overall majority.
And we should not forget the local elections. There will be far more SNP councillors in Scotland by the end of next week and far fewer Labour councillors. These elections are set to mark the final transition to multi-party politic in Scotland.
James Mitchell is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.
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