Poll of Polls 2007

'With only 11 days to go until polling, the SNP continues to extend its lead over Labour, which now requires a seismic turnaround in its fortunes to avoid defeat.' Tom Gordon in the Sunday Times, 22 nd April 2007.

As top two's poll gap refuses to budge, Greens may hold the key

By John Curtice in the Scotsman 23 rd April 2007

With the official campaign now half over, Labour has failed to achieve any success in eroding the SNP's lead. But Alex Salmond is still not sure of winning enough seats to put him in a dominant position in the new parliament.

These are the two critical conclusions to emerge from the first significant batch of opinion polls to have been published since the campaign began.

On average, three polls published in the past three days have put the SNP six points ahead of Labour on both the constituency and the list vote. This is exactly where the parties stood, on average, in eight polls conducted in the second half of March, just before the election got under way.

Labour now has less than two weeks to close a gap that, so far, has shown no signs of diminishing since it first emerged last autumn.

The only party to have made some progress during the campaign are the Liberal Democrats.Their average rating in the most recent polls is up a couple of points on March. If it can maintain this progress, the party may push the Conservatives into fourth place for the first time in a Holyrood election.

Meanwhile, there is continuing uncertainty about the standing of the Greens. One of the most recent polls put them on only three per cent, which would see them almost wiped outat Holyrood. Another, in contrast, put them as high as 10 per cent, sufficient to make gains.

Just how well the Greens do could be crucial to the parliamentaryarithmetic after May 3. The betterthey do, the less likely it is that the SNP will match the 50 seats or so that it needs to have a strong hand in coalition negotiations - and the less likely it is that, even if they can do a deal, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats will have a majority between them.

Indeed our poll of polls shows how close ze might be to that scenario. The SNP are estimated to be on 46 seats, 19 short of what is needed for a majority. The Liberal Democrats are reckoned to have just enough seats to fill that gap - but only just.

The SNPmust now be regarded as odds-on favourite to come first on 3 May.But the task of forming a new administration could yet prove to be a formidable one.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University.