 | 'Labour has been dealt a devastating blow in the build-up to the Scottish election. A new poll shows the SNP has its biggest ever lead over the Labour Party.' Mark Aitken in the Mail on Sunday, 8 th April 2007. |  |
| 'Labour has been dealt a devastating blow in the build-up to the Scottish election. A new poll shows the SNP has its biggest ever lead over the Labour Party.' Mark Aitken in the Mail on Sunday, 8 th April 2007. | |
Labour has been dealt a devastating blow in the build-up to the Scottish election.
A new poll shows the SNP has its biggest ever lead over the Labour Party.
The Scottish Opinion poll for The Scottish Mail on Sunday reveals the Nationalists have a 12 per cent lead over Labour - a resounding six points more than previous forecasts.
The results are disastrous for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who - despite visits to Scotland last week - have failed to halt the march of Alex Salmond's party.
The poll shows the Nationalists with a 12 per cent lead over Labour in the ballot for first-past-the-post seats and an 11 per cent lead in the second vote for regional MSPs.
If reflected on polling day, the SNP would more than double its MSPs at the Scottish parliament to 56, giving them 16 more seats than Labour.
The result - the best poll showing yet for the SNP - paves the way for the party to form the next Scottish Executive and launch its Bill for a referendum on independence.
The poll came as it emerged that the Prime Minister and the Chancellor had a heated argument just hours after leaving Scotland last week about who should take the blame for the widely expected election disaster.
Mr Blair, who is now planning a series of trips to Scotland to try to bolster Labour's flagging campaign, warned Mr Brown not to hold him responsible for any defeat. The Chancellor in turn claimed he was doing all he could to prevent a meltdown.
Labour had been bracing itself for significant losses on May 3, with the party's own internal polls showing a significant lead for the Nationalists.
But this new poll forecasts an even worse result for Labour than even the most pessimistic of its supporters would have predicted.
Senior Labour figures have insisted the party's support is not in 'meltdown' and that the SNP is simply 'hoovering up' votes from the smaller parties.
But the figures show that, while the smaller parties would lose 14 seats, Labour would lose ten - while the SNP would gain 29.
The poll also puts renewed pressure on Jack McConnell, with voters believing Mr Salmond would make a better First Minister.
Mr McConnell has failed to capture the public imagination during his five-year tenure and has been struggling to make an impact on the campaign trail despite the heavyweight support of Mr Brown and Mr Blair.
Privately and for the first time, sources say, Mr McConnell now admits he is close to defeat.
The poll showed only 17 per cent of voters thought he would make the best First Minister, compared to 23 per cent for Mr Salmond.
The poll, based on a survey of more than 1,000 people, shows the SNP set to return 56 MSPs to Holyrood, Labour 40, the Tories 17, the Liberal-Democrats 13 and other parties three.
It has the SNP on 40 per cent for the Holyrood constituency vote, with Labour on 28 per cent, the Tories on 15 per cent, the LibDems on 14 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.
In the second vote, for the top-up party lists, the Nationalists are on 39 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent, the Tories on 14 per cent, the LibDems on 10 per cent, the Greens on 4 per cent, Solidarity and the SSP both on 1 per cent and others on 3 per cent.
The figures do not include voters yet to choose. According to the poll, 29 per cent are still undecided and 6 per cent will refuse to vote.
Despite having the largest number of seats, the SNP would still have to form a coalition with another party to have an overall majority.
This would most likely be with the LibDems, who helped Labour form previous coalition Executives. They have been to reluctant to agree to a referendum on Scottish independence, but would be willing to agree a compromise in exchange for more powers for the Scottish parliament.
The SNP claims its election campaign is about to reach its 'take-off' point, with the party buoyed by its biggest ever election war chest, planning to distribute a million magazine-style manifestos and make 100,000 telephone calls to voters.
SNP campaign manager Angus Robertson said: 'It's clear that Labour's negative, London-led campaign is in deep trouble. They must be reaching for the panic button in Labour's London HQ.
'We are delighted with this poll result. It's the 11th poll this year to put the SNP ahead and we go into the formal campaign period for the first time ever with a clear lead.'
Senior Labour sources said they believed the SNP was taking votes from smaller parties and that Labour was ready to mobilise its support.
A spokesman added: 'This latest poll proves voters face a real choice on May 3. Do we build Scotland with Labour or break up Britain with the SNP? Labour is fighting hard and working hard for every vote in this election.'
Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie said: 'The voters see us as relevant because our policies are bread-and-butter issues. The voters also like the fact that our policies, unlike other parties, are not for sale.'
LibDem campaign director Tavish Scott said: 'I am waiting for the poll on May 3, but meantime this opinion poll shows a significant improvement for the LibDems compared to the last poll by the same company.'
John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, said: 'Labour appears to so far behind that the SNP is a distant speck on the horizon. We have had months of campaigning and the SNP has remained ahead. The election is now only four weeks away.
'Labour's tactic has been attacking the SNP and independence and emphasising the partnership with London. The odds are against them being able to turn the election around with that kind of strategy.'
A newspaper poll has given the Scottish National Party its biggest lead of the Holyrood election campaign.
It put the SNP 12% ahead of Labour in the constituency vote - 6% higher than previous polls - with an 11% lead in the ballot for regional MSPs.
The poll also suggested that voters would prefer Alex Salmond to Jack McConnell as first minister.
The Scottish Opinion poll of more than 1,000 people was carried out for the Scottish Mail on Sunday.
The results would translate into the SNP doubling its number of Holyrood seats to 56, giving the party 16 more MSPs than Labour.
When asked who would make the best first minister, 17% of people went for Mr McConnell while 23% opted for Mr Salmond.
Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie (7%) beat Liberal Democrat leader Nicol Stephen (5%) into third place, with 3% of those asked thinking Solidarity leader Tommy Sheridan was the best person for the top job.
SNP winning
The survey predicted that the SNP would win 56 seats, Labour 40, the Tories 17, the Lib Dems 13 and other parties three.
That was based on the SNP achieving 40% of the Holyrood constituency vote, Labour 28%, the Tories 15%, the Lib Dems 14% and other parties and candidates sharing 3%.
In the vote for regional MSPs the Nationalists were on 39%, Labour 28%, the Tories 14%, the Lib Dems 10%, the Greens 4%, Solidarity and the SSP are both on 1%.
However, the figures did not include voters who had yet to decide.
According to the poll, 29% of people have yet to choose who to back, while 6% will refuse to vote.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the Mail on Sunday: "Labour appears to be so far behind that the SNP is a distant speck on the horizon.
"We have had months of campaigning and the SNP has remained ahead.
"Labour's tactic has been attacking the SNP and independence and emphasising the partnership with London.
"The odds are against them being able to turn the election around with that strategy."
Tony Blair's intervention in the Scottish election has driven more voters into the hands of the SNP, according to polls published today.
The Prime Minister launched Labour's campaign last week with a warning that SNP spending plans would lead to an annual £12.9bn deficit, the equivalent of £5,000 for each Scottish family.
But the first full week of campaigning ends today with polls suggesting that Jack McConnell, Scotland's First Minister, is heading for a resounding defeat.
The survey in The Mail on Sunday suggests that the SNP will win 56 seats in the Scottish Parliament, Labour 40, the Liberal Democrats 13 and the Conservatives 17.
Mr McConnell has recently suggested that he would be willing to form a minority government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, an admission of Labour's increasingly forlorn prospects.
The claim that Mr Blair is an electoral liability is supported by a survey by the BBC, which suggests that two-thirds of Scots want British troops withdrawn from Iraq.
Though acknowledging that he is a "controversial figure", Mr Blair is due to make at least three more visits to Scotland before polling day on 3 May.
A poll has given the SNP its biggest lead over Labour of the Holyrood campaign so far.
It shows the Nationalists with a 12% lead over Labour in the constituency vote - 6% higher than previous predictions - and an 11% lead in the ballot for regional MSPs.
The results of the Scottish Opinion poll for The Scottish Mail on Sunday would translate into the SNP doubling its number of Holyrood seats to 56, giving the party 16 more MSPs than Labour.
WENDY ALEXANDER is poised to seek the leadership of the Scottish Labour Party should a disastrous result at the coming election force Jack McConnell out.
The Sunday Herald understands that jockeying has already begun in the party's senior ranks, with Alexander ready to stand should the top position become vacant.
Several Labour insiders admitted Alexander, the former enterprise minister, and health minister Andy Kerr were the likely candidates to go head-to-head if McConnell relinquishes his post after next month's election. It has been suggested Kerr could run on a "joint ticket" with parliament minister Margaret Curran.
This early planning follows Labour's inability to eat into the SNP's lead in the opinion polls. A new survey, carried out for Scottish Opinion, put the Nationalists on 40% of the constituency vote, ahead of Labour's 28%. It also gave the SNP an 11% lead on the regional list vote, with Alex Salmond's party on 39% and Labour on 28%.
A seat projection carried out for the Mail on Sunday put the SNP on 56 seats, with Labour behind on 40.
The results come on top of Labour's internal polls, which are finding the party at least five points behind the SNP.
Labour pollster Philip Gould admitted the deficit at a briefing last week, at which McConnell said: "We're behind. Our private polls show us behind."
The prospect of losing to the SNP has prompted senior Labour figures to think about who will the lead them in a post-McConnell era. The Motherwell and Wishaw MSP is expected to stand down if Labour lose out to the SNP on seats.
The most likely scenario, according to Labour insiders, is for a contest between Alexander and Kerr.
Alexander would probably have the backing of chancellor Gordon Brown and his supporters in Scotland, despite the fact she angered him in 2001 by not challenging McConnell for the top job.
Kerr, a McConnell ally, could expect support from his Lanarkshire base and activists in the west of Scotland, and may run with Curran as his deputy.
One source said: "It will be between Andy and Wendy if Jack stands down. The options are limited but very clear."
Another MSP tipped as leadership material, finance minister Tom McCabe, is understood not to want the top job.
Revelations of discussions about McConnell's successor are unlikely to help a Labour campaign that has so far failed the party in the opinion polls.
McConnell will this week attempt to seize the initiative by launching Labour's manifesto, a 100-page document that runs to 28,000 words.
One announcement will be a 25% cut in pensioners' water and sewerage charges, as a first step to abolition. More than 600,000 households would see a discount worth around £180 a year for those living in a band D property.
McConnell said of the new policy: "A quarter of the costs pensioners pay in their council tax bills is for water and sewerage.
Labour will cut them in half and eventually remove them completely. This will make a massive difference to the household bills our pensioners pay."
Kerr said of the leadership speculation: "We are all trying to win the Scottish election. Whoever is saying this is undermining Labour's campaign. It is not true and it makes me angry."
Asked if he would stand for the leadership if there were a vacancy, he said: "Jack McConnell will be first minister, therefore there will be no vacancy."
Alexander could not be contacted.
Angus Robertson MP, the SNP's Campaign Director, today welcomed the Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday poll which was published today, which shows the SNP well ahead of Labour in both the constituency and regional votes for the Scottish Parliament elections.
The full results of the poll are as follows:
Constituency Vote (Percent)
SNP 40
Labour 28
LibDem 14
Tory 15
Others 3
Regional Vote (Percent)
SNP 39
Labour 28
LibDem 10
Tory 14
Green 4
Sol 1
SSP 1
Others 4
Mr Robertson said:
"We are delighted it's the 11th poll this year to put the SNP ahead, and we go into the formal campaign period for the first time ever with a clear lead.
"We are taking nothing for granted, and will work even harder over the next 25 days to win success for Scotland.
"It's clear that Labour's negative, London-led campaign is in deep trouble. They must be reaching for the panic button in Labour's London HQ.
"After 10 years of disappointment, the Scottish people want new leadership. They are rallying to the SNP's platform of lower class sizes, local healthcare, safer streets, and the right of the people to choose Scotland's future.
"These are the positive policies that the Scottish people want, and only the SNP offer."
Notes:
The Mail on Sunday calculates their seat projection based on these voting figures thus:
SNP 56
Labour 40
LibDem 13
Tory 17
Others 3
It has not been a happy Easter for Labour. Another weekend poll, this time in the Mail on Sunday, showed the SNP 12 points ahead in the race for Holyrood. There were stories about Brown and Blair arguing in the back of their limo over the impending electoral disaster; there was renewed speculation about Jack McConnell's future; and Labour insiders were saying that their own internal polls show Labour is trailing the SNP.
In other words, everything is going to plan. Yes, Labour is remarkably relaxed about its poor poll showings and negative press. It seems almost to be talking up the SNP as a tactic, the better to bring it down later in the campaign. There is method to this madness.
Labour's poll guru, Philip Gould, in Scotland last week, compared the Scottish elections to the 1992 General Election campaign. At this stage in '92, Labour appeared to have a comfortable lead over the Tories. But as soon as voters looked at the small print of Labour's economic policies, they took fright and threw in their lot with the devil they knew: the Conservatives.
If history is repeating itself, then it makes sense to play up the prospect of an SNP victory the better to concentrate the minds of the electorate on its policies. Mind you, it's pretty hard on Gordon Brown and the late John Smith, who were responsible for the 1992 shadow budget which Gould says didn't add up.
But is it a legitimate comparison? I remember the 1992 General Election campaign well, since I was working in Westminster at the time. At this stage the early polls certainly placed Labour ahead by around five points. There was an infectious air of excitement in the media, just as today, at the prospect of a historic change of government.
It never happened, of course, and Labour's economic policies probably played a part. However, it was a very different economic and political climate. Britain was still in the depths of recession and house prices were collapsing across the south of England. Scotland today is booming and most people in work have never had it so good.
Moreover, I seem to recall that the decisive moment in that 1992 campaign was the infamous Sheffield rally, where Neil Kinnock let his hair down - metaphorically speaking - and started punching the air crying "well, all right " like a superannuated soul singer. Maybe Sheffield's significance was exaggerated, but Kinnock certainly feels he blew Labour's chances by exposing a side of his character that was not sufficiently prime ministerial.
You couldn't imagine Alex Salmond doing the same - or could you? Remember the "unpardonable folly" remark about the bombing of Belgrade during the 1999 Scottish election campaign. Labour certainly believes that Salmond has it in him to make a series of arrogant gaffes, and a lot of effort will be spent on provoking him to deliver one. Hence Jack McConnell's repeated taunts about how the SNP leader cut and run to Westminster in 2000 because he couldn't hack it in the Scottish Parliament.
However, the SNP leader has been showing considerable restraint in this election so far. Salmond's minders have been impressing upon him the need to leave his "guerilla opposition" days behind him and take on the mantle of sober statesmanship. Stop scoring cheap points in debate, curb his soundbites and avoid leaping on to the airwaves to rebut every Labour slight. Seems to be working so far.
Last week Salmond and most of his party virtually absented themselves from the entire campaign, allowing the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, free rein to rubbish their monetary and fiscal policies. It culminated in an astonishing attack at the weekend by Professor Arthur Midwinter of Edinburgh University, an adviser on fiscal matters to the Scottish parliament's finance committee, who told a Sunday newspaper that the SNP "is not fit to govern" because it had not been able to defend its policies on local income tax.
Now, in the past, you would have expected a whole series of SNP figures to be leaping up like Jock-in-the-boxes to defend the party's policies on council tax, the deficit and keeping the pound. John Swinney, Jim Mather, Alex Salmond to name but three. They would unintentionally have contradicted each other in subtle ways, which the press and Labour would have been able to exploit. In other words, their interventions would have kept the story running, and allowed the focus to fall on the areas where they are weakest.
Instead of that, the nationalists kept their own counsel, avoided the airwaves and simply released a couple of alternative academic papers, one from Professor David Simpson, former chief adviser to Standard Life, and one from Professor Neil Kay, of Strathclyde University, arguing that the SNP numbers are sound. Or at any rate, no more unsound than anyone else's.
Salmond has kept his ammunition dry until a press conference in Aberdeen today, where he promises to deal with the issue, on his own, point by point. This is not the febrile SNP we have seen in the past. It represents the kind of self-discipline that Labour showed, not in 1992 perhaps, but in 1997.
Of course, the SNP will have to get its act together. The charge is that local income tax would make Scotland the highest taxed region in Britain, would discourage investment and would hit poorer people hardest. There are some very dodgy numbers flying around about just how much local income tax would have be levied. The respected Institute for Fiscal Studies says 5p on the basic rate. Salmond says, and will say again today, that - assuming the existing council tax benefits are retained, which is by no means certain - the increase would only be 3p plus efficiency savings of around half a billion pounds.
Hmm. Whenever a politician resorts to efficiency savings to fund policies, economists reach for their revolvers.
Midwinter points out that no government in history has ever achieved cost reductions of that scale, equivalent to 1.5% of total spending. Mind you, the Chancellor is supposedly applying efficiency savings of 2.5% under the existing Gershon review, so I suppose Gordon Brown isn't fit to be in government, either. Or Jack McConnell, who promised to cut Scottish spending in the last CSR round by more than Gershon.
Labour has now made a dramatic promise to halve and eventually abolish water and sewerage charges. There will be more tomorrow from Labour at its manifesto launch about making council tax fairer and more progressive. By the end of the week, it will not just be the SNP which will have to show it can get its numbers to add up.
However, to return to 1992 and all that, there is another very big difference. In 1992, Labour was bidding to be the government of the UK, not a coalition partner in a regional legislature.
Scottish voters know that the SNP would have to share power with the Liberal Democrats and that Scotland would have to vote for independence in a referendum in 2010. Labour's task is to convince an electorate fed up with it that it cannot afford to take even this limited risk with the future.
LABOUR was facing a series of negative polls yesterday, 24 days before the election.
The latest poll on the Holyrood elections gives the SNP their biggest lead of 12 per cent, six points more than previous polls. If the results of the Scottish Opinion poll are replicated on 3 May, the number of SNP MSPs would more than double and give the party 16 more than Labour.
In addition, an in-depth poll by BPIX on the party's ten years in power in the UK found almost half of voters consider Tony Blair untrustworthy and more than half think he has been in office too long.
An ICM poll showed more than two-thirds of people favour immediate withdrawal from Iraq.
And a YouGov poll found Britain is split down the middle on whether Scotland should remain part of the UK. The finding suggests that if the Scots opt for independence, the English will not stand in their way.
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