 | 'We are taking nothing for granted and will work even harder in the next 30 days. Labour's campaign is in trouble but we have never said anything other than we wanted to become the largest party in the parliament.' SNP spokesman, 3 rd April 2007. |  |
| 'We are taking nothing for granted and will work even harder in the next 30 days. Labour's campaign is in trouble but we have never said anything other than we wanted to become the largest party in the parliament.' SNP spokesman, 3 rd April 2007. | |
SCOTTISH National Party hopes that they would build on the momentum of their slick early election campaign and stretch their lead over Labour have suffered a setback.
The latest The Scotsman/ICM opinion poll - the first since the formal start of the election campaign - shows only that the SNP has consolidated its lead over Labour, but not pushed further ahead as many Nationalists had hoped.
According to the poll, the SNP has a 5 per cent lead over Labour on the constituency vote and 4 per cent on the regional vote - the same margins as last month.
If these findings were replicated on 3 May, the SNP would win 17 extra seats at Holyrood taking its total to 44 MSPs, with Labour down 11 to just 39.
However, the findings are likely to be a blow to Nationalist morale, which was boosted by other polls which suggested they could win up to 50 seats at Holyrood.
Buoyed by these surveys, Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, last week predicted that Labour would "go down not just to defeat but to absolute calamity".
However, his confidence in the SNP's inevitable advance is given a reality check by today's poll, which was conducted within the last few days.
Seat projections by Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, show that the Liberal Democrats would take 24 seats, up from 17 in 2003, making them "kingmakers" - in a strong position in likely coalition negotiations.
These figures would allow the SNP and the Lib Dems to form a governing coalition with a comfortable majority of seven over all of the other parties and confine Labour to opposition for the third term of the Scottish Parliament.
However, the strength of the Lib Dem support would put them in a strong position to hold out against the Nationalists' demand for an independence referendum as the price for forming a coalition.
Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrats' campaign director, said: "What this poll shows is that people want a change from Labour but they don't want independence.
"What people do want is change and a bright future. The only party that can provide this is the Liberal Democrats," he said.
Angus Robertson, the SNP campaign manager, said: "We are delighted - it's the tenth poll this year to put the SNP ahead, and the SNP go into the formal campaign period for the first time ever with a clear lead."
A spokesman for the SNP denied that the results were a setback.
He said: "We are taking nothing for granted and will work even harder in the next 30 days.
"Labour's campaign is in trouble but we have never said anything other than we wanted to become the largest party in the parliament."
To reinforce their claims that they are heading for a substantial victory, the SNP yesterday released the results of a YouGov survey they commissioned.
In this poll, on the constituency vote, the Nationalists' support is 36 per cent, Labour is on 27 per cent, the Lib Dems on 16 per cent, the Tories on 13 per cent and others on 8 per cent.
On the regional vote, the SNP is running at 33 per cent to Labour's 26 per cent, the Tories and Lib Dems at 14 per cent each, the Greens at 7 per cent, the SSP at 3 per cent, Solidarity 1 per cent, and others 3 per cent.
The Scotsman's poll shows that Labour and the Lib Dems would be unable to form a third coalition, with just 63 seats between them. They would need the support of the two Green MSPs the poll predicts would be elected to have a three-party governing majority of just one.
However, today's poll is still not good news for Labour. If the party lost more than ten seats would lead to questions over Jack McConnell's leadership of the party in Scotland.
The party's 27 per cent on the constituency vote is the lowest figure to be recorded by any poll so far.
In a sign of the concern at the heart of Labour over their campaign, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown will today launch an unprecedented joint assault on the economic case for independence.
A Labour spokesman said: "This poll shows voters face a clear choice in May. Do we build up Scotland with Labour or break up Britain with the SNP?"
Mr Blair and Mr Brown will contrast Labour's "positive policies for securing economic growth by investing in skills, reforming education and providing practical support to businesses, with the substantial risk to Scotland's economy posed by the SNP".
The poll also contains bad news for the Scottish Conservatives. According to the poll, support for the Tories, who launched their manifesto yesterday, has fallen by 3 per cent and they would lose three seats, taking their tally of MSPs to just 15.
A Tory spokesman said: "On the doorsteps the length and breadth of Scotland, our focus on the bread-and-butter issues affecting people is winning us a lot of support. We're convinced this will be reflected in the poll that really matters, on 3 May."
The poll also shows an apparent rise in support for the Scottish Socialist party, which is up from its 1 per cent showing last month to 5 per cent.
However, Tommy Sheridan's break-away Solidarity party barely registers.
Colin Fox, the leader of the SSP, said: "There is a growing feeling that the SNP, in attracting support from big business is moving to the right, and is not a radical alternative to Labour.
A spokesman for the Scottish Green Party said: "Some polls show us at 1 or 2 per cent, some at 10 per cent. We always score more in the real ballot."
He said that the Greens, who had seven MSPs elected in 2003, were "confident" that they would get into double figures after 3 May.
ALEX Salmond yesterday pledged to abolish the council tax, as a poll showed almost three-quarters of people are against it.
The YouGov survey of just over 1,000 people commissioned by the SNP found 71 per cent wanted to get want rid of the council tax, to 16 per cent who did not.
THIS latest ICM poll serves as a reality check for the SNP. Like a plethora of other recent polls, it indicates the party begins the official campaign in the lead.
But in contrast to the impression created by headlines accompanying other recent polls, there is no sign that the SNP is pulling further ahead.
Our The Scotsman/ICM poll is the only poll that has consistently measured party support month by month since its inception last autumn.
It thus provides a unique record of how public opinion has evolved in the run up to the campaign.
As the chart shows, after being neck and neck with Labour in October, in November the Nationalists pulled ahead.
Since then the picture has changed little. The SNP have consistently scored about a third of the vote while Labour have tallied a little under 30 per cent.
True, Labour support may perhaps now have fallen a little further - certainly the party's 27 per cent score on the constituency vote in today's poll is the lowest figure to be recorded by any poll so far.
There is certainly no sign of any revival in the party's fortunes. But equally it appears that SNP support may have slipped a little over the past month too. As of last month the party is still 4-5 points ahead, but there is no sign here of an unstoppable SNP bandwagon.
So the SNP lead is solid, but far from spectacular. It might only be sufficient to bring the party some 44 seats, five more than Labour but 21 short of what it needs to secure a majority.
On these figures, Alex Salmond's ability to secure the keys of Bute House would depend almost entirely on his success in winning the support of the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dem leader, Nicol Stephen, is still largely an unknown quantity. But his party has consistently been securing 17 per cent of the vital regional vote in our poll, as much as five points up on 2003. This is sufficient to push the party's Holyrood representation up from 17 seats to 24.
Moreover Mr Stephen might yet be in a position to strike a hard bargain with Mr Salmond. For he might still be able to do a deal with Labour. Together Labour and the Liberal Democrats would have 63 seats - just two short of a majority.
If the two parties could garner the support of the Greens they would have just enough seats to remain in power.
So Labour may be in deep trouble, but its chances of retaining power cannot be written off yet.
A five-seat SNP lead is too small for the Nationalists to be sure that things might not still look a little different by polling day.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats threaten to emerge as the kingmakers who could stand between Alex Salmond and office.
Clearly the SNP are now favourites to come first on 3 May. But Mr Salmond would be unwise to assume victory is assured.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University
An ICM poll for the Scotsman today (Tuesday) shows the SNP maintaining its lead over Labour on both the regional and constituency voting intentions for May's Scottish Parliament election. The poll is the tenth this year to show an SNP lead and the first of the campaign proper.
Commenting Angus Robertson MP, the SNP campaign manager, said:
"We are delighted - it's the tenth poll this year to put the SNP ahead, and the SNP go into the formal campaign period for the first time ever with a clear lead.
"We are taking nothing for granted and will work even harder in the next 30 days.
"It's clear that Labour's negative campaign is in trouble as Blair and Brown come to Scotland once again to scaremonger the men responsible for the illegal war in Iraq and the destruction of people's pensions.
"It's time for a fresh approach and new thinking in Scotland. It's time for the SNP."
Full Poll Results
Constituency Vote:
SNP 32%
Lab 27%
Con 13%
LibDem 19%
SSP 5%
Other 4%
Regional Vote:
SNP 31%
Lab 27%
Con 12%
LibDem 17%
Green 5%
SSP 5%
Other 3%
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