 | 'Insiders in all parties agreed the poll was significant, as TNS System 3 has tended to find Labour leads in its recent surveys.' Paul Hutcheon in the Sunday Herald, 1 st April 2007. |  |
| 'Insiders in all parties agreed the poll was significant, as TNS System 3 has tended to find Labour leads in its recent surveys.' Paul Hutcheon in the Sunday Herald, 1 st April 2007. | |
A new opinion poll shows the highest levels of support yet for the Scottish National Party.
The TNS System Three poll suggests Alex Salmond's party could be the largest party after the Scottish Parliament elections on 3 May.
It is the fourth poll in a week to give the Nationalists an outright lead over their main rivals Labour.
The TNS survey, commissioned by STV, was carried out between 20 and 27 March and questioned 996 adults.
Political expert Professor Bill Miller, from the University of Glasgow, calculated that the poll results would leave the SNP with 51 seats at Holyrood, followed by Labour on 44.
The Lib Dems would come in third with 16 seats, trailed by the Conservatives with 13, the Greens with four seats, and the SSP just one. He said: "This survey confirms the trend of other recent surveys.
"But it puts the number of SNP MSPs even higher than other polls.
"The finding is all the more significant because over the past year System Three polls have consistently been more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the SNP than other polls."
He added: "Now the pollsters all seem to be reaching similar conclusions and there is no longer any conflict of evidence."
TNS SYSTEM THREE FOR STV
SNP - 39% (constituency) 36% (list)
Labour - 34% (constituency) 25% (list)
Lib Dems - 11% (constituency) 13% (list)
Tories - 13% (constituency) 11% (list)
Others - 3% (constituency) 16% (list)
SCOTTISH LABOUR'S grip on power seemed to be slipping away last night after another opinion poll confirmed the SNP was on course for a historic victory in the Holyrood election.
The new TNS System 3 snapshot, which was conducted for Scottish Television, gave the Nationalists a surprise five-point lead in constituencies and an astonishing 11 point lead on the regional vote.
Such a result onMay3 would give the SNP 51 seats in the Scottish parliament and install Nationalist leader Alex Salmond as first minister.
The poll, which is consistent with other survey findings, came on the day Scottish Labour leader Jack McConnell went head-to-head with Salmond and others in a televised debate.
Both leaders traded blows over the issues of independence, gay adoption and clashed on their commitment to Scotland.
But the Sky TV debate was overshadowed by news of another opinion poll confirming the SNP's lead over Labour.
The poll, which was commissioned late last month and based on a sample of around 1000 adults, found the SNP on 39% of the constituency vote, five ahead of Labour on 34%. The Conservatives trailed in third on 13%, with the LibDems fourth on 11%.
The regional vote was even better for the SNP, as the poll found the Nationalists on 36%, a record 11% ahead of Labour. The LibDems came third on 13%, the Tories fourth on 11%, with the Scottish Greens trailing on 6%. The SSP, which had broken through four years ago, languished on 3% A seat projection by Professor Bill Miller at Glasgow University placed the SNP at 51, up by around 24 since the 2003 Holyrood election, while Labour dropped back to 44, a loss of six seats compared with four years ago.
The findings, if reflected in the result on May 3, would spell the end for McConnell and lead to Salmond becoming the next first minister in an SNP-led Scottish Executive.
The Nationalists would be in a position to enter into coalition with the LibDems who, according to Miller's projection, would end up with 16 seats, giving a SNP-LD partnership a majority.
The poll, which will beunveiled tomorrow by STV ahead of their leaders' debate, is broadly in line with other snapshots that found large leads for the Nationalists. Insiders in all parties agreed the poll was significant, as TNS System 3 has tended to find Labour leads in its recent surveys.
Meanwhile, yesterday's leader debate was marked by a series of clashes between Salmond and McConnell, both of whom are vying to become Scotland's next first minister.
The Edinburgh event, which went on for over 90 minutes, featured three party leaders - Salmond, McConnell and the LibDems' Nicol Stephen - as well as Tory Murdo Fraser, who was standing in for Scottish leader Annabel Goldie.
All the participants fielded questions from an invited audience, which ranged from Cardinal Keith O'Brien to historian Michael Fry, but it was the exchanges between the SNP and Labour leaders that were the most lively.
At one point, the SNP leader accused McConnellofusingthesamearguments against an independence referendum as the Tories had once deployed against a devolution plebiscite.
In another exchange, Salmond challenged McConnell for defending Labour's record in power over the past eight years.
"When are you going to start doing all these wonderful things that you keep saying you're going to do?" demanded Salmond. McConnell retorted: "If you'd been in the Scottish parliament for the last six years ...," a dig at the SNP leader's decision to quit Holyrood.
At another point in the debate, Salmond ridiculed Jack McConnell's mantra that Scotland is "the best small country in the world".
"If Jack really believes that Scotland is the best small country in the world, how nonsensical is it to argue that the best small country is somehow incapable of doing exactly what our neighbours everywhere else do so well?" he demanded.
McConnell also appeared to clash with Stephen, his former deputy in the ScottishExecutive, by suggesting Labour could govern without help from the LibDems.
He raised the prospect of Labour trying to govern on an issue-by-issue basis, striking deals with various parties.
McConnell said a coalition between his party and the Liberal Democrats was "the right thing for Scotland" in 1999 and 2003 but the third parliament offered new possibilities.
"The outcome, in terms of the government of Scotland, will first of all be determined by the results," he said.
"But secondly it could be either a coalition or an effort by the largest party to win votes on a policy-by-policy, bill-by-bill basis working with different parties at different times."
The STV leaders' debate will be screened today.
ANOTHER WEEK, another helping of bad news for Scottish Labour. Just as the first minister, Jack McConnell, was taking the gloves off in his fight against the SNP, a steady stream of polls kicked Labour in the face. One had the Nationalists 10 ahead; another had them six in front. The latest poll, this one from System 3, confirmed the SNP lead.
McConnell's response to the first poll was to claim Scots had five weeks to "save devolution". A more accurate way of putting it is that voters have over a month to save Scottish Labour, and their leader, from humiliation. The first minister is weeks away from being the first Scottish Labour leader to lose an election in nearly half a century.
Labour's worry is that there is no sign of a turnaround. Every poll, regardless of whether it is commissioned by a conservative or left-leaning newspaper, is giving the SNP a commanding lead and revealing high ratings for Nationalist leader Alex Salmond. Every time Labour attack the Nationalists, the polls get worse. Every time McConnell "gets positive", they flatline. It is as if voters are not listening.
The SNP's uncharacteristically polished campaign is partly responsible forMcConnell's headaches. In 1999, Salmond blew the Nationalists' chances of victory with a naive tax policy and unwise comments on the conflict in Kosovo. In 2007, the same leader has toned down his leftism, embraced business leaders and played a blinder over the past 12 months.
But most of Scottish Labour's problems can be directly traced to their colleagues at Westminster. Thanks to Tony Blair, the Labour Party is now synonymous with a disastrous war in Iraq, a police inquiry into corruption, and various other niggles that paint a picture of a government thati s politically and morally bankrupt.
McConnell has to take some responsibility for his predicament. It is true that Scottish Labour has some considerable achievements to point to but the message does not seem to be getting through.
If the first minister had, like his Welsh counterpart Rhodri Morgan, stood up to the prime minister and distanced himself from Blair's excesses, Scottish people would have perceived him as a brave and principled politician. The reality is that voters care more about punishing the prime minister than saving the first minister.
Where now for Labour? With the polls predicting meltdown, momentum firmly with the SNP and Salmond walking tall, McConnell has little choice but to contrast the constitutionalism of the Nationalists with the focus placed on education by Labour.
To this end, one factor rests in his favour. McConnell has been criticised for a lack of inspiring political vision, but he is a politicalwinner. From his days at university, through his stint as a councillor and now as first minister, McConnell knows how to win elections. He desperately needs to summon up those skills for one last battle.
Tony Blair and Gordon Brown will unite to pay a campaigning visit to Scotland this week in an attempt to head off a humiliating SNP victory in next month's elections.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor will launch what could prove to be one of their last joint electioneering events before Mr Blair leaves office.
They will try to rally support on Tuesday following polls which show that the Scottish National Party is on course to overtake Labour as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament. Mr Blair is expected to warn voters that an SNP victory in the Holyrood election would be a step towards the break-up of the United Kingdom.
However, observers warned that the visit could backfire, with Mr Blair increasingly seen as an electoral liability for his party north of the border.
A defeat for Labour on May 3 would be a blow for Mr Brown, suggesting that he has lost support in his own backyard as he prepares to move into 10 Downing Street. An opinion poll published today shows the SNP increasing its lead, with 39 per cent support in constituency voting against 34 per cent for Labour. In the regional vote, the SNP led Labour on 36 points to 25.
The poll was carried out for Scottish Television by TNS System Three, whose previous surveys have produced much better results for Labour. Professor Bill Miller, a psephologist at Glasgow University, said the findings put the SNP on course for 51 seats to Labour's 44, suggesting that an SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition could govern without needing support from other parties.
Betfair, the online exchange bookmaker, last night quoted the SNP as 2/3 odds-on favourite to emerge as the largest party, with Labour at 6/5.
Speculation was growing that Labour would this week seek to boost its chances by announcing a £3 billion Government order for two 65,000-ton Royal Navy aircraft carriers.
The announcement, which could coincide with Mr Blair's visit, would safeguard work at a BAE shipyard in the marginal seat of Govan, on the Clyde, and at Rosyth naval dockyard, Fife. Adam Ingram, the armed forces minister, said last week: "Scotland will benefit greatly from those two carriers when a decision is made."
Labour's Jack McConnell, the First Minister, was on the stump yesterday in Govan, which Labour risks losing to the SNP, with a claim that Scotland has only "five weeks to save devolution".
The SNP has sought to play down its commitment to Scottish independence, promising voters a referendum within four years but putting more emphasis on other policies. The nationalists added to the ranks of their celebrity backers yesterday with an endorsement from Sandi Thom, the chart-topping pop singer from Macduff, Aberdeenshire.
Mr McConnell and Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, are staging a 90-minute, live television debate today with Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, and Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader.
Labour may seek to form a minority government if it emerges from the Holyrood elections as the largest party, First Minister Jack McConnell said last night.
During the first TV debate of the campaign, he raised the prospect of governing on an issue-by-issue basis, striking deals with various parties.
The event, in Edinburgh, was the first time that McConnell and SNP leader Alex Salmond have clashed at close quarters since becoming leaders of their respective parties.
McConnell said a coalition deal between his party and the Liberal Democrats was 'the right thing for Scotland' in 1999 and 2003 but the third Parliament offered new possibilities. 'The outcome, in terms of the government of Scotland, will first of all be determined by the results,' he said.
'But second it could be either a coalition or an effort by the largest party to win votes on a policy-by-policy, bill-by-bill basis working with different parties at different times.'
'A lot of that will depend on the outcome of the election - but I do think devolution has matured over these eight years.
Over the 90 minutes of debate between McConnell, Salmond, Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen, and Tory deputy leader Murdo Fraser, questions were fielded from an invited audience, ranging from youngsters to Cardinal Keith O'Brien and historian Michael Fry.
The most heated exchanges were between McConnell and Salmond, who several times talked over each other. At one point, the SNP leader accused the Scottish Labour leader of using the same arguments against an independence referendum as the Tories had once deployed against having a devolution referendum.
In another bitter exchange, Salmond challenged McConnell as he was defending Labour's record in power for eight years. 'When are you going to start doing all these wonderful things that you keep saying you're going to do?' demanded Salmond.
The debate, which ranged from council tax to Trident and from an independence referendum to coalition possibilities, gave no new policy insights.
But McConnell hinted that Labour's reform of the council tax, to be announced during the campaign, will have an environmental link.
Nicol Stephen spelled out his party's stance on an independence referendum: 'If there is a majority for parties in favour, they can proceed to the next step as they want to deliver independence, and that's through a referendum. But the Liberal Democrats don't believe in independence and we don't support a referendum.'
An opinion poll published today shows the best levels of support yet for the SNP. The TNS/System Three survey suggests backing for Alex Salmond's party is strengthening, with it well on course to be the largest party after the elections. It is the eighth poll this year to give the Nationalists an outright lead over their main rivals.
The results would give the SNP 51 seats, followed by Labour on 44. The Lib Dems would come in third with 16 seats, trailed by the Conservatives with 13, the Greens with four seats, and the SSP just one. These results would give an SNP/Lib Dem coalition a majority in the Parliament with 67 MSPs.
SCOTLAND's foremost political scientist is for the first time backing the SNP to win the Scottish elections, following a series of polls which found support for the Nationalists has rocketed.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said he now believed the SNP were odds on to win the May 3 election, in the wake of a series of stunning polls which have placed the SNP seven points ahead of their nearest rivals, with just five weeks to go until election day.
A survey today, commissioned by Scottish TV, shows that, if anything, the SNP are stretching their lead over their nearest rivals.
The System 3 survey suggests the Nationalists will win 51 seats, seven ahead of Labour on 44. The figure represents the largest number of seats estimated for the SNP in any recent poll.
Curtice has compiled a poll of polls using the surveys over the past week to offer a fully rounded view of Scotland's voting intentions. It shows that, on the constituency vote, the SNP has 37%, Labour has 30%, the Tories 13% and the Liberal Democrats 13%.
On the regional vote, the SNP is on 34%, Labour is on 27%, the Conservatives and Liberals are on 13%, with the Greens and Others taking the other 13%.
In seats, this would mean the SNP would have 47 seats, Labour would have 39, the Conservatives and Liberals 18 each and the Greens 4.
If replicated at the polls, this would mean that an SNP-LibDem coalition could form a majority at Holyrood. Labour could form a stable government, however, only if they persuaded the Liberals to form a coalition, and then got the Conservatives to back them from the opposition benches.
Bookmakers are still backing Labour to emerge as the biggest party in May, largely because of their traditional dominance in the central belt.
But Curtice said the SNP was now in the box seat. He said: "I would now put them 6-4 on to win.
"That still means that there is a 40% chance that Labour will win but the SNP are obviously favourites now.
"Labour's problem is that the SNP lead is firm and if anything it is getting worse. This is the SNP's election to lose. Now we have got four different pollsters all using different methods and they are all coming up with similar results. The broad picture is for the SNP to get the most seats."
Curtice's analysis was also supported by Professor Bill Miller of Glasgow University, who also believes that Labour will now be beaten.
He pointed to the unprecedented strengthening of the SNP lead, which goes against previous election campaigns where the SNP faded the closer the election became.
"In 1999 and 2003, support for the SNP faded as the election approached. But so far this time, SNP support seems to be strengthening, not fading," Miller said.
He said the System 3 findings were all the more significant because previously they had been more favourable to Labour. Only in January, System 3 were giving a clear lead to Labour.
But he added: "Now the pollsters all seem to be reaching similar conclusions and there is no longer any conflict of evidence."
Their verdict came after Jack McConnell declared that there were now "five weeks to save devolution". He has conceded that he is now the underdog in the election campaign, behind Salmond.
The softness of the Labour vote has also been identified by the Liberal Democrats who are now targeting so-called 'Lab Lites' as they seek to take voters away from their coalition allies.
They believe thousands of traditional Labour voters, especially women and young people, have already decided not to back the ruling party this year, and are aiming to win their support.
The new poll comes with the first full week of campaigning beginning today, kicking off with a live debate on Scottish TV.
Three parties - the Tories, the Greens and the Scottish Socialists - will then launch their manifestos.
SNP leader Alex Salmond has said he would prefer to form a coalition government if his party was the largest after the Scottish Parliament election.
Opinion polls suggest strong support for the SNP but it is unlikely it will have an overall majority.
Labour's Douglas Alexander dismissed claims his party would unite with the Tories to stop the SNP gaining power at Holyrood on 3 May.
Tory MP Malcolm Rifkind said there were "all sorts of possible combinations".
Overall majority
Mr Salmond was speaking on BBC's Sunday AM as the latest poll suggested the highest level of support yet for his party ahead of 3 May poll.
The TNS System Three poll indicated the SNP with 39% on the constituency vote and 36% on the list.
Labour, which formed a coalition executive with the Liberal Democrats during the previous two parliaments, was put at 34% on the constituency vote and 25% on the list preferences.
It is the fourth poll in a week to give the Nationalists an outright lead over Labour.
Political expert Professor Bill Miller calculated that the poll results would leave the SNP with 51 seats of the 129 seats at Holyrood.
Prof Miller said Labour would have 44 seats, the Lib Dems 16, the Tories 13, the Greens four and the SSP just one.
The SNP's 51 seats would leave them 14 short of an overall majority, but it would be possible it could govern as a minority executive.
Mr Salmond said: "I would prefer coalition as opposed to running alone. We have had discussion with the Greens which very amicable and fruitful.
"They do not look to be in government. They are prepared under certain circumstances to support a government from outwith it."
He also stated a financial case for independence. He said: "Under devolution, Scotland controls 15% of its revenue.
"In Europe with independence, we would control 99% of revenue."
Independence referendum
Douglas Alexander, Transport Secretary and Secretary of State for Scotland, said his party was winning the argument about independence.
He said: "We have a competitive fight on our hands. We are determined to focus our campaign, not simply on the positive agenda we want to offer.
"But to highlight the strategic choice that Alex Salmond made when addressing the Scottish National Party conference when he could have put independence on the backburner and instead set out the agenda for tax raises and constitutional turmoil."
Responding to reports that Scottish Labour leader Jack McConnell would appeal to the Tories to help prop up a minority Labour administration after the elections, Douglas Alexander MP said the coalition prospect had no "credence".
He said: "Our entire focus is on getting the maximum number of seats and votes come 3 May."
Sir Malcolm Rifkind, a Scottish Conservative and MP for the constituency of Kensington and Chelsea, told the programme: "There are all sorts of possible combinations we can get when no party has an overall majority.
"The big question about independence is do we want to condemn Scotland to 10 years of constitutional instability."
Nicol Stephen, Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, has previously spelled out his party's stance on an independence referendum.
He said: "If there is a majority in the parliament after 3 May for parties in favour of independence, of course they can proceed to the next step as they want to deliver independence, and that's through a referendum.
"But the Liberal Democrats don't believe in independence and we don't support a referendum - and can you think of a single party or government which promoted a referendum on an issue it doesn't support?"
An opinion poll shows the best levels of support yet for the SNP. The TNS System Three poll suggests backing for Alex Salmond's party is strengthening, with it well on course to be Holyrood's largest come May 4.
Political expert Professor Bill Miller pronounced the findings as "significant" as they came from a pollster that normally favours Labour at the expense of the SNP.
They also buck trends from the 1999 and 2003 elections which show SNP support normally fading as the election approached, he said.
Labour's leader in Scotland has conceded that his party is now the "underdog" in the Scottish parliament election campaign, after a series of opinion polls suggesting the nationalists have increased their lead. Jack McConnell admitted that Labour was facing a serious challenge if it wanted to counter a surge in support for the Scottish National party which has put the pro-independence party clearly in front with less than five weeks to go until polling day.
Opinion polls show the SNP could take up to 51 of the 129 places in the devolved parliament, up from 25 seats at present, leaving Labour trailing with as few as 40 seats, losing 20% of its strength at Holyrood. That result would put the nationalists in a dominant position and the most likely party to form a ruling coalition with the Liberal Democrats, just before Gordon Brown, a Scottish MP, is expected to become prime minister in London.
Senior Labour officials have reportedly predicted in private that the party will lose on May 3, with its campaign described as "lacklustre" and chaotic.
Morale in the party has plummeted, with senior figures canvassing candidates to replace Mr McConnell as leader and planning how to handle their first period in opposition.
Mr McConnell, first minister in the coalition with the Lib Dems which has run the devolved executive since it began in 1999, was asked yesterday on Sky News what it felt like to be the underdog in the campaign. He replied: "It's not necessarily a bad position to be in, if you can win the argument. That's the challenge over the next five weeks, to give a positive agenda for Scotland or the constitutional chaos that the nationalists are offering."
Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, rejected Mr McConnell's claims that the nationalists wanted to create conflict with the government. Mr Salmond said the SNP had an "overwhelming interest" in proving that the devolved parliament worked better under its control, if it was to have any chance of winning its proposed referendum on independence, mooted for 2010. He was intent on offering voters "equality" and "progress".
Mr McConnell claimed the SNP was benefiting from a backlash from voters suffering "mid-term blues" with the government in London, and implied that Labour in Scotland was suffering from a "protest vote" against Tony Blair's policies at national level. Some will see that as a reference to the widespread unhappiness in Scotland over the war in Iraq and the decision to replace the Trident nuclear weapons system.
Mr Brown and Mr Blair are due in Scotland this week in another attempt to reinvigorate Labour's campaign. Speculation is growing that they will confirm an order for two new aircraft carriers and that they will be built partly in the marginal Glaswegian seat of Govan on the Clyde, a move designed to bolster their insistence that Scotland benefits substantially from its place within the UK.
Mr Brown is expected to visit Gleneagles in the Scottish Highlands on Thursday, with the former UN secretary general Kofi Annan, to report on progress in meeting pledges to combat global poverty made at the G8 summit there in 2005.
A TNS System Three opinion poll for the STV leaders' debate today (Sunday) shows the SNP ahead of Labour on both the regional and constituency voting intentions for May's Scottish Parliament election. The poll is the 8th this year to show an SNP lead.
Commenting SNP Campaign Manager Mr Angus Robertson MP said:
"This is extremely encouraging the 8th poll this year to give the SNP a clear lead but we are taking nothing for granted.
"The SNP's positive campaign reflects the mood of Scotland, as we set out our policies to build a more successful Scotland.
"Labour's negative and London-led campaign is in crisis the alarm bells must be ringing in Labour headquarters.
"The SNP have the ideas, the policies and the ambition to build success for Scotland to scrap the unfair Council Tax, keep healthcare local, lower class sizes in the early years, and give the people of Scotland the choice of independence in a referendum.
"Labour, by contrast, have nothing positive to say which is why their campaign is in deep trouble."
ENDS
Notes:
The poll was conducted by TNS/System 3 for STV.
Full Results
Constituency Vote:
SNP: 39%
Labour: 34%
Lib Dems: 11%
Tories: 13%
Others: 3%
Regional Vote:
SNP: 36%
Labour: 25%
Lib Dems: 13%
Tories: 11%
Others: 16%
Scottish political leaders clashed over independence and nuclear weapons on Sunday as a poll showed a pro-independence party on course to become the biggest party in the Scottish parliament in May 3 elections.
Leaders of the four main parties battled it out in a rare 90-minute debate on Scottish television as the campaign for the election, which could have a big impact on Britain's constitutional future, moved into a crucial phase.
The Labour Party, which rules in Britain and governs in coalition in Scotland, is alarmed by opinion polls showing the Scottish National Party (SNP) could oust Labour as the largest party in the Scottish parliament.
The SNP is committed, if it wins, to holding a referendum in the next four years on Scottish independence from London.
"I think Scotland should be an equal country along with all the other countries which have political and economic control," SNP leader Alex Salmond said.
A Scottish television poll published on Sunday suggested the SNP would win 51 seats to Labour's 44 in the 129-member Scottish parliament. In the current parliament, the SNP has 25 seats compared with Labour's 50.
Labour has grown increasingly unpopular in Scotland after a decade of rule by Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Many Scots opposed Blair's backing for the US-led Iraq war and are against his decision to buy a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines, which are based in Scotland.
Blair will step down in a few months, with finance minister Gordon Brown, a Scot, expected to take over as prime minister.
The SNP would need a coalition partner to command an overall majority in the Scottish parliament.
The other main parties are committed to keeping the 300-year-old union of England and Scotland.
The Edinburgh parliament was established in 1999 with primary legislative responsibility for policy areas such as health, education and justice. The British parliament in London kept control of the economy, foreign and defence policies.
The Labour Party's Jack McConnell, Scotland's first minister, argued that if the SNP came to power, its referendum plans would hit the economy. "A referendum ... would lead to uncertainty in our economy that would have a dramatic impact on people's jobs and living standards," he said.
The SNP counters this argument by citing the views of business leaders such as George Mathewson, former chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland, who has endorsed Salmond.
Salmond said he would scrap Britain's Trident nuclear missile system, calling it outdated, while McConnell said Britain should not unilaterally give up a nuclear deterrent in an increasingly dangerous world.
Tony Blair has warned his party that it faced a "big fight" against the Nationalists as the Scottish election campaign officially began.
He warned that a victory for the Scottish National Party at Holyrood, and the subsequent referendum on independence, would plunge the economy north of the border into uncertainty.
The Prime Minister joined forces with Chancellor Gordon Brown on Tuesday to halt the SNP advance after numerous polls placed the Nationalists well ahead of Labour in the battle for votes.
Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland ahead of a campaign event with the Chancellor and First Minister Jack McConnell in Glasgow, Mr Blair said Scotland was much better off within the UK.
Asked if Labour could turn around five months of negative polls in the five remaining weeks to polling day, he replied: "I think there's every chance but I mean you're right there's a big fight and that's what politics is about.
"And one of the things I want to emphasise is actually how strong Scotland is today. Scotland has now got an average employment rate of lower than the UK average. Well I can't remember the last time that happened.
It's got 200,000 extra jobs, we've got a huge financial services sector."
The most recent poll, based on a TNS System Three poll for STV, suggested the SNP would win 51 seats to Labour's 44, the Lib Dems winning 16, the Tories' 13, the Greens' four and the Scottish Socialist Party gaining one seat.
But Mr Blair warned: "The important thing is this: the moment you've got the SNP government in charge and you've got that referendum over the next few years then you inject uncertainty and instability into the situation.
"And then of course the people in the driving seat taking the train down the track are the SNP, who of course, will want to win that referendum and make sure that they can have separation.
"So I think when you look at these economic questions and you look at the effect on industry and living standards, the question is: is Scotland stronger today economically? Answer yes, so why put it at risk?"
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