 | 'Labour MSPs will wake up this morning to the worst of news, namely that their nightmares are true and that they really are heading for disaster.' Alan Cochrane in the Daily Telegraph, 30 th March 2007. |  |
| 'Labour MSPs will wake up this morning to the worst of news, namely that their nightmares are true and that they really are heading for disaster.' Alan Cochrane in the Daily Telegraph, 30 th March 2007. | |
Gordon Brown suffers a double blow today, falling further behind David Cameron and facing defeat in Scotland as he prepares to take over from Tony Blair, according to the latest YouGov polls for The Daily Telegraph.
Labour is heading for its worst performance in Scotland since Michael Foot was leader, losing control of the Chancellor's Scottish heartland to a resurgent Scottish National Party.
The poll shows that Mr Brown's 11th and final Budget, which cut the basic rate of tax but then recouped the money by scrapping the 10p starting rate, has failed to boost his personal ratings.
The Conservatives have increased their lead over Labour to seven points in the the past month. The poll puts the Tories on 39 per cent (up two), Labour 32 (no change) and the Lib Dems 17 (no change).
Of more immediate concern to Mr Brown will be the signs of a big drop in Labour support in Scotland ahead of elections to the devolved Scottish Parliament on May 3 - so-called super Thursday with elections to the Welsh Assembly and English local councils. The YouGov survey puts the SNP on 35 per cent compared to 29 per cent for Labour. It suggests that the nationalists are set to become the largest party in what has traditionally been regarded as Mr Brown's backyard.
He runs the risk of becoming Prime Minister with Labour ousted from power in Scotland and an SNP-led executive in Edinburgh raising fresh questions over his mandate to run the country. At the last election, the Conservatives secured more votes in England than Labour.
The poll suggests the SNP would gain 46 seats in the 129-seat Parliament - an increase of 19 - while Labour would dip below the 40 mark, gaining just 39. The Liberal Democrats and Tories would be 18 each, the Greens five and independents three.
Alex Salmond, the leader of the SNP, has pledged to hold a referendum on independence within four years if he becomes Scotland's first minister - raising the prospect that one of Tony Blair's legacies would be that introducing devolution had paved the way for breakaway Scotland.
The poll's nationwide finding are likely to increase the concerns among Labour MPs, particularly those close to Mr Blair, that Mr Brown may not have the wide political appeal to win a fourth term. The Daily Telegraph has reported this week how David Miliband is running a "virtual" leadership campaign and may yet mount a challenge if Labour suffers meltdown on May 3.
YouGov shows that Mr Cameron is succeeding in persuading the voters that the Tories are no longer the "nasty party" and that they need not fear the return of a Conservative government.
The proportion saying they would be dismayed if the Tories won the next election has fallen from 46 per cent when Michael Howard led the party two years ago, to 31 per cent now, while the proportion saying they wouldn't mind either way has risen from 25 per cent to 36 per cent.
Tony Blair still has a marginal lead over Mr Cameron when voters are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. Mr Cameron has a five-point lead over Mr Brown.
When voters were asked if they would prefer a Conservative government under David Cameron or a Labour one under Gordon Brown, 44 per cent opted for Mr Cameron compared to 34 per cent for Mr Brown. The Chancellor's ratings have fallen, possibly because of his Budget.
Labour MSPs will wake up this morning to the worst of news, namely that their nightmares are true and that they really are heading for disaster.
In spite of a series of recent opinion polls that have put their deadly enemies, the SNP, in a comfortable lead for the Scottish Parliament elections Labour stalwarts have been clinging to the hope that the YouGov poll - generally regarded as the most accurate of all - would bring them some comfort.
Not a chance! The survey carried out for this newspaper is perhaps the worst that Labour could have imagined, pointing out as it does that not only do the separatists have a comfortable lead but that the number of Labour MSPs in the 129-seat assembly could be down to 39.
Although defeat on May 3 has been seen as inevitable by many Labour stalwarts, they hoped against hope that it might yet be a "respectable" downfall. Falling below 40 seats, however, takes on all the appearance of a rout.
If the YouGov forecasts bear fruit in five weeks' time Labour will lose not only several ministers and well-known backbenchers they will also lose the right to be seen as the automatic "voice of Scotland" - an undreamed of proposition only a few years ago. With Scottish Labour in such a weakened state it will undoubtedly be a boost for David Cameron's hopes of beating Gordon Brown whenever a general election is called.
That is the prospect that must be terrifying the present chancellor as he heads for 10 Downing Street and also for Tony Blair, as he prepares to leave it, with his legacy threatening to be that of the Prime Minister whose actions contributed to break up of the United Kingdom.
And so, as they stand at the cliff edge this morning what is Scottish Labour - or indeed Gordon Brown and Tony Blair - to do in the remaining five weeks before polling day? Yesterday, Jack McConnell delivered up what his critics say is his somewhat poisoned mantra - namely that if you vote SNP you get independence. Full stop. Or rather semi colon, because he goes on to claim that if you get independence you also get higher taxes.
Mr McConnell is getting a bit of a bashing for this line but the fact is that he's right. The second bit about taxes may be a bit problematical but to keep hammering on that the SNP's main objective is to smash the United Kingdom must be the way to go. Of course it's negative and of course it's desperate but it is also true.
Alex Salmond is turning somersaults at present to be nice to the English, being complimentary about their virtues, loyal to the monarchy and is proposing all manner of social and friendly relationships with them after the great breakaway.
But this Diet Nationalism of his is a complete con trick, designed to keep the bogeyman of total separation in the closet and out of the voters' minds.
Mr Salmond poured scorn on Labour's scare tactics yesterday but he knows that if it weren't for his dotty policy of breaking up the greatest union of two former enemies the world has ever seen he'd have been warming his toes at the Bute House hearth long since.
And if anything was proof that Labour should maintain their assault, it was this. The more Mr Salmond attacks their "negative" attacks on his planned break up of the United Kingdom, the more Mr McConnell should stick to his task.
If any further proof of this position were required, it comes, in spades,- in today's YouGov findings, which show that support for independence continues to fall.
Wee Eck may well rage about the negativity of Labour's campaign but his stock in trade is to continually denigrate the record of Tony Blair in the, so far, correct belief that this will have disaffected voters flocking to the Nat banner.
But he knows there is no groundswell among the voters for a bitter parting of the ways between England and Scotland; and it is bound to be bitter, no matter how often Mr Salmond utters warm words about the English.
It would be nice to think there was something positive to say about the effect devolution has had on Scotland, as another way of bashing the Nats but as it's devolution, as well as the Blair/Brown record that's got us here, there's not much point in going down that route.
The Scottish National Party looks set to become the largest single party in the Holyrood Parliament following the May elections.
However, YouGov's survey of Scottish voters demonstrates that the SNP's success will owe almost nothing to its commitment to Scottish independence. Instead, the SNP has had the good fortune to emerge as the only credible challenger to the Labour Party in Scotland at a time when Labour is deeply unpopular on both sides of the border.
If the SNP fares as well in May as YouGov's new survey suggests, the party's leaders will be tempted to claim a major victory. The claim will be without foundation. The proportion of voters saying they would vote for total separation from the UK in a referendum is no higher today than it was at the time of the last elections four years ago and is actually lower than it was last year.
YouGov's findings reveal the extent to which Labour's difficulties in Scotland are almost entirely a function of Labour's difficulties throughout Britain.First Minister Jack McConnell, the Scottish Executive and the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition are all held in higher esteem than they were in 2003, yet Labour's electoral support has declined sharply.
All the same, if the SNP does emerge as the largest party, a majority of voters clearly believe the traditional rules of the parliamentary game should be followed and that the SNP, as the largest single party, should be given first crack at trying to form a coalition administration.
A majority would also like to see the SNP forming part of an administration.
The figures in the chart speak directly to the SNP's success in mobilising the opposition to Labour.
At the constituency level, support for the SNP has bounded ahead from 21 per cent at the time of the last Holyrood elections to 35 per cent. At the regional level, support has increased from 24 to 33 per cent.
Labour has correspondingly drooped, down in the voting for constituency MSPs from 35 per cent to 29 per cent and in the voting for regional top-up MSPs from 29 to 27 per cent.
The Scottish Conservatives have suffered a modest decline. The position of the Liberal Democrats is little changed.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, calculates that results along these lines would give the SNP 46 seats in the 129-seat parliament, a gain of 19 since last time, and would give Labour 39, a loss of 11.
The Lib Dems and Scottish Conservatives would have 18 seats each, the Greens five and assorted others three.
The consequent post-election bargaining might well be protracted and complicated on a Continental scale.
On present form, the combined SNP and Lib Dems would find themselves with 64 seats, only one short of a slim parliamentary majority.
It would take only one Green or minor-party MSP to give that combination an overall majority. If the Greens as a party came over, an SDP-Lib Dem-Green coalition would have a nine-seat majority.
The findings show how little Labour's near-collapse north of the border is owing to the male factions of Scotland's own Labour Party.
On the contrary, Jack McConnell is, if anything, now held in higher esteem than he was four years ago and people think rather better now of the Scottish Executive.
A majority of Scottish voters, 52 per cent, reckon the Labour-Lib Dem coalition has performed either "very" or "fairly" well and a large proportion, 41 per cent, reckon devolution has made Scotland "a better place in which to live", with only 10 per cent thinking the opposite.
If the SNP does perform well in May, there is a virtual consensus north of the border that that party should be given a chance to try to assemble a coalition. Approaching two thirds of YouGov's respondents, 59 per cent, hold that view compared with a mere 20 per cent who reckon the present Labour-Lib Dem coalition should endeavour to remain in power.
As the findings also show, a coalition containing SNP representatives would have widespread, if not necessarily enthusiastic, public backing. Fifty-seven per cent of those questioned would assent either to "the formation of a new Executive with the SNP in a coalition with other parties" (47 per cent) or
even to "the installation of a purely SNP Executive which would then have to rely on the votes of other parties" (10 per cent).
In the event that the SNP did take power in some form, only a small minority of Scottish voters, 14 per cent, would want it to set itself up in permanent and implacable opposition to the Government in London.
Considerably more, 24 per cent, would like it to continue to collaborate closely with the UK Government.
The largest proportion, 43 per cent, would like to see it pursuing a middle way, co-operating generally with the Government in London but not co-operating a all on any issues where Scotland's interests might be damaged.
But it is YouGov's findings in connection with the crucial issue of Scottish independence that are the most striking. As the figures in the chart show, a large majority, 64 per cent, are clear that a referendum on the issue should be held, if only to settle the issue one way or the other. Only 24 per cent would not welcome a referendum.
However, the desire for a referendum is by no means matched by a desire for independence. As the figures in the chart also show, only 28 per cent of YouGov's respondents say that, if there were a referendum, they would "vote in favour of a completely independent Scottish state outside the UK". Nearly double that proportion, 51 per cent, say they would "vote in favour of retaining the present Scottish Parliament".
The fine print of YouGov's data indicate that a large proportion of the SNP's own supporters are not in favour of independence, with 65 per cent saying they would vote "Yes" in a referendum but the remainder either undecided or, in the case of 23 per cent, actually opposed.
The issue of independence certainly does not loom large on most voters' radar screens as distinct from most politicians'.
YouGov asked people to indicate their priorities for the new Executive. As the figures in the chart make plain, holding a referendum on Scottish independence hardly figures. Twice as many Scots would give priority to scrapping the current early-release scheme for prisoners in Scottish jails.
Meanwhile, electoral politics south of the border is largely business as usual. A separate Britain-wide YouGov survey puts the Conservatives on 39 per cent, up two points since last month, and Labour on 32 per cent, unchanged since last month. A hung Westminster Parliament after the next election, with the Conservatives as the largest single party, looks increasingly probable.
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University.
By historical standards, the Conservatives' lead over Labour at the moment is not especially impressive.
Many governing parties have trailed much further behind the Opposition yet won the next election.
Nevertheless, it seems increasingly probable that Labour will lose its majority at the next election, with the Tories emerging as the largest single party.
Tony Blair's Government is not despised in the way that John Major's was in the mid 1990s. The economy remains strong and voters still accord Mr Blair a certain grudging respect. Nevertheless, the Government - afflicted by spin, sleaze, Iraq and evidence of managerial incompetence - has a palpable air of decay.
YouGov's monthly survey for The Daily Telegraph gives the Tories a seven-point lead over Labour. The Conservatives have now led Labour for 11 consecutive months.
Support for Labour has remained stuck in the 31 per cent to 33 per cent range for nearly a year and the Liberal Democrats are becalmed at an even lower level.
The Conservatives have the support of 39 per cent of voters. Labour, on 32 per cent, is four points down since the last election. The Liberal Democrats, on 17 per cent, are down six points.
YouGov's findings speak to the electorate's lack of enthusiasm for the Blair Government and the Liberal Democrats. They also speak to voters' lack of enthusiasm for the way electoral politics as a whole is functioning.
A massive 35 per cent of respondents say they do not know who they would vote for at an early general election, or that they would vote for a minor party or that they would not bother to vote at all.
The worst may be yet to come for Labour. Only 34 per cent would prefer to see a Labour government under Gordon Brown, while 44 per cent would prefer the Conservatives under Cameron. Brown, once the Labour Party's prince over the water, may prove its prince under the water.
The portion of the chart headed "Delighted or dismayed?" offers another indicator of Labour's decline and the Conservatives' recovery.
Before each general election, voters are asked whether they would be delighted or dismayed if the principal Opposition party were returned to power or whether they would not mind.
The mood has shifted since the last election. In 2005 46 per cent of respondents said they would be "dismayed" if the Conservatives under Michael Howard won. Only 20 per cent said they would be "delighted" and 25 per cent said they "wouldn't mind".
The proportion saying they would be delighted remains virtually unchanged at 17 per cent but the proportion saying they would be dismayed has fallen from 46 per cent to 31 per cent. The proportion saying they wouldn't mind either way has risen from 25 per cent to 36 per cent.
In other words, a clear majority of voters would either welcome the return of a Tory government or view the Tories' return with equanimity. The Conservatives under David Cameron have clearly not captivated voters but they no longer frighten them.
Labour is floundering north of the border as well. A YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph in Scotland points strongly to the Scottish National Party emerging in May as the largest single party, though without an overall majority.
According to YouGov, support for the SNP at constituency level has risen from 21 per cent during the last Scottish Parliament elections to 35 per cent.
The SNP's share of the regional top-up vote has increased from 24 per cent to 33 per cent.
The bulk of the change is at Labour's expense, with Labour dropping six per cent at the constituency level to 29 per cent and two per cent at the regional level to 27 per cent.
The corresponding figures for the Tories are 13 per cent and 15 per cent respectively, and 14 per cent and 12 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University calculates that results along these lines in May would give the SNP 46 seats and Labour 39. The Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Conservatives would have 18 seats each and other parties eight.
The SNP would need a combination of the Liberal Democrats, Greens, independents and - less probably - the Scottish Tories to form a majority administration.
However, YouGov's findings make it clear that the surge in SNP support owes nothing to any boost in support for Scottish independence. Only 28 per cent of respondents say they would vote for independence. The SNP's new-found strength is mostly a mirror image of Labour's weakness.
Although the Conservatives have made substantial progress, they have failed to make a breakthrough either north or south of the border. A legacy of distrust left over from the Major years probably explains a lot but the voters' second preferences hints at a continuing dilemma.
When asked which party they would back if they decided not to vote Tory, Conservative voters were split between the left and right.
As the figures show, 29 per cent say they would vote either Liberal Democrat or Green with 30 per cent saying they would switch to either Ukip or the BNP.
Fortunately for Cameron, most Tory-inclined voters will almost certainly stick with the party when the time comes.The Conservatives no longer offend left-inclined Liberal Democrats, while Ukip and the BNP have almost no chance of winning seats in Westminster.
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University.
A YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph tomorrow (Friday) shows the SNP ahead of Labour on both the regional and constituency voting intentions for May's Scottish Parliament election. The poll is the seventh poll this year to show an SNP lead as we move towards the final stages of the election campaign.
Speaking after the latest results were released Angus Robertson, the SNP's Campaign Director said:
"The SNP's positive policies to build a more successful Scotland are capturing the public mood across the country. Increasing numbers of people are turning to the SNP because they share our hope for the future of Scotland.
"In direct contrast, Labour's increasingly extreme and negative campaign is turning many voters off and is convincing many more of the case for the fresh thinking and new ideas put forward by Scotland's party, the SNP.
"While the SNP are promoting a series of positive and popular policies such as abolishing the unfair Council Tax, Labour's defence of this hated tax has boomeranged on them once again.
"This poll is the seventh poll this year to show an SNP lead. While these results give the SNP some support for the coming election campaign, we will take absolutely nothing for granted. Our aim is now to work harder than ever before to earn the trust and support of the Scottish people at the polls on May 3rd."
ENDS
Notes
The poll was conducted by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph.
Full Results
Constituency Vote (%):
SNP 35
Labour 29
Con 13
LibDem 14
Other 9
Regional Vote (%):
SNP 33
Lab 27
Con 15
LibDem 12
Other 14
The third opinion poll in as many days has suggested the Scottish National Party is ahead of Labour on both the regional and constituency votes.
The YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph said the SNP had a substantial lead over Labour.
If the poll findings were translated into Holyrood seats, it would leave the SNP with 46, Labour with 39 and the Tories and Lib Dems with 18 each.
The survey of 1,085 adults in Scotland took place between 23 and 28 March.
The results also suggested that the Scottish Greens would hold onto five seats in the new parliament and there would be three seats for others.
Friday's Telegraph poll comes in the wake of a Daily Mail poll and a Times poll which both displayed the same broad conclusions.
Angus Robertson MP, the SNP's campaign director, said the figures showed his party's policies were capturing the country's mood.
He said: "This poll is the seventh poll this year to show an SNP lead.
"Our aim is now to work harder than ever to earn the trust and support of the Scottish people at the polls on 3 May."
The poll comes a day after the Scottish Parliament ended its second term.
First Minister and Scottish Labour leader Jack McConnell ended the session by saying the flurry of polls were a "wake-up call" for the people of Scotland.
He said: "They are a call to the people of Scotland to realise how serious is the threat of the SNP - and how important it is that they come out and vote and back Labour to build up Scotland for another four years."
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH
SNP - 35% (constituency) 33% (list)
Labour - 29% (constituency) 27% (list)
Lib Dems - 14% (constituency) 12% (list)
Tories - 13% (constituency) 15% (list)
Others - 9% (constituency) 14% (list)
Labour is facing the prospect of being defeated by the Scottish National party in May's Holyrood elections, according to the latest poll predictions.
With just five weeks until the local and devolved elections, today's Daily Telegraph survey suggests that the SNP is set to become the largest party with 35%, compared to 29% for Labour.
Transposed into seats, this would see the SNP gain 19 more elected members in the 129-strong parliament, bringing the party's total to 46.
Labour, which is currently the largest party and governs in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, would be pushed into second place with just 39 seats.
The Liberal Democrats and the Tories would have 18 seats each, the Greens five and independents three, according to the YouGov poll.
The result would see a change of first minister and new coalition arrangements.
In a double blow for Labour, the poll also shows the Conservative party leading the way nationally with a seven-point increase in its lead over Labour since last month.
The findings will give Gordon Brown, the chancellor, little reason to cheer so close to his expected elevation to Labour leader and prime minister.
The SNP said that the poll showed that the party had "captured the mood" in Scotland.
Angus Robertson, the SNP's campaign director, said: "Increasing numbers of people are turning to the SNP because they share our hope for the future of Scotland.
"While we are promoting a series of positive and popular policies, such as abolishing the unfair council tax, Labour's defence of this hated tax has boomeranged on them once again."
LABOUR is heading for a heavy defeat at the hands of SNP in the Holyrood elections, according to a new poll.
The YouGov survey puts Labour on 29% compared to 35% for the SNP.
It would give Labour 39 seats, the SNP 46, the LibDems and Tories 18, the Greens five, and other parties three.
The poll also revealed almost two-thirds of voters would back a referendum on independence, but there was a fall in support for independence itself, down from 31% in November to 28%.
There is more good news for the SNP as another opinion poll has showed the party well on course to win most seats in May's election.
A YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph shows nationalists ahead of Labour on both the regional and constituency voting.
It is the seventh poll this year indicating the SNP are well-placed to triumph in the Holyrood vote on May 3.
One man is threatening to ruin what should be Gordon Brown's first year as prime minister: Alex Salmond, leader of the Scottish Nationalists. Having persuaded many unionists to vote SNP for the first time in next month's elections, he is also offering an independence referendum. So is the United Kingdom doomed in its 300th year?
'I've met Gordon Brown quite a few times and he's a nice enough guy, but the man's a fraud," says Kevin McGough, an engineer from North Queensferry, the small town in Fife where the Chancellor lives.
"He lost a lot of support around here when he started telling us we should support the England football team. I'm sorry, but to me that's anti-Scottish. Brown is more worried about not seeming too Scottish Down South than he is about being liked up here."
Mr McGough, a Labour voter "from a Labour family", has grown disillusioned with Britain's governing party. And he is in a position to do something about it. Like many of his fellow Scots, when he enters the polling booth on May 3 to elect a new devolved government, the 47-year-old will, for the first time, put his cross in the box beside Alex Salmond's Scottish National Party.
"Alex Salmond is not afraid to be Scottish, that's for damn sure," he says. "I don't see the point of having a Scottish Parliament if we are just going to have a version of Westminster in Edinburgh. It's time to see if the Nats can make it their own and I'm listening to what they have got to say."
In the Scottish heartlands that have long sustained it, Labour is staring doom in the face. A succession of polls in the past seven days has indicated that in five weeks' time the SNP will be returned as the largest party at Holyrood, the devolved parliament in Edinburgh.
The most recent, for The Daily Telegraph on Friday, found that on the first-past-the-post section of the vote, which elects 73 of the parliament's 129 MSPs, the SNP would secure 35 per cent, compared with 29 per cent for Labour.
On the second vote, which elects the remaining 56 MSPs on a system of proportional representation, the Nationalists would have 33 per cent to Labour's 27 per cent. In total this would return 46 MSPs for the SNP, and 39 for Labour.
The consequences of a Nationalist victory at Holyrood will be seismic. For Labour, it will represent the end of an iron grip on Scotland that has spanned decades. For Mr Brown, the humiliating loss of his own backyard will raise fresh questions about his legitimacy as the next prime minister and his attractiveness to Middle England, just at the moment Tony Blair resigns.
And then there is the bigger picture: the SNP's raison d'etre is the creation of an independent Scotland - their triumph would throw into doubt the continuing existence of the United Kingdom in, ironically, the year that the Union celebrates its tricentenary.
'The reason we are going to win this campaign is that we represent the values and aspirations of mainstream Scotland," says Mr Salmond. "We now lead across all social classes in Scotland. For the first time ever, we lead on schools, hospitals and law and order. Mainstream Scotland backs the SNP. The other parties, the London parties, are on the margins."
He is speaking after launching his party's election campaign in a plush hotel conference suite. It is a slick affair, with the 52-year-old SNP leader cutting almost as impressive (and, these days, almost as substantial) a figure as the ancient castle behind him.
His advisers have worked hard in recent months to temper his public image as a smug, snippy rhetorician, recasting him as a statesman-like figure capable of governing a nation. His wardrobe has been modernised, and he affects modesty in place of what has in the past been viewed as barely concealed arrogance. "He is at least pretending to listen to what other people say these days," whispers one onlooker.
The polls show the SNP leader way out in front when Scots are asked who, of the candidates on offer, would make the best first minister: 31 per cent opt for Mr Salmond, and only 18 per cent for Jack McConnell, the incumbent. It is not hard to see why. Mr Salmond is charismatic, passionate and an inspiring orator; Mr McConnell is none of these things. He has led a low-key administration in coalition with the Liberal Democrats for the past five-and-a-half years, taking a "safety first" approach to public policy.
Mindful of the strength of the trade unions in Scotland, and operating in a political climate where the nostrums of old socialism are often still preferred to those of New Labour, he has avoided the risk of major public sector reform and instead concentrated on spending the £30 billion that the Scottish Executive now receives annually from the Treasury.
His main achievement has been the imposition of a complete ban on smoking in public places, now being copied south of the Border. "I think most people, including maybe himself in his quiet moments, will be disappointed by how little he has achieved," says Mr Salmond, who points out that even the smoking ban was an idea initially put forward by an SNP backbencher.
A former party fixer adept at backroom deals, most commentators agree that Mr McConnell has failed to grow into the role of First Minister, a judgment he did little to discourage when, in an interview last year, he mused openly on whether holding office took too great a toll on his family life. His failure to make much of an impression on the national stage was evident last week when Patricia Hewitt, the Health Secretary, continually referred to him during an interview as "Jack McDonald".
"Labour has a problem in that the SNP has a more popular and charismatic leader," says John Curtice, a psephologist and professor of politics at Strathclyde University. "And there's not really much they can do about that."
This hasn't stopped them trying: the past few months have seen an unrelenting assault on the character and reputation of Mr Salmond. Mr McConnell has mocked his opponent's "self-satisfied smirks" and "glib sound bites", while the Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander has described him as "an old man in a hurry" - a jibe that backfired when it was pointed out that Mr Brown, Mr Alexander's mentor, is even older.
And then there's the off-the-record briefing. "He looks jaded, as if he's been sitting up late. His suit doesn't fit. He doesn't look fresh," one Labour source was quoted as saying.
But it is not working. As the insults have flown, the SNP have stretched their lead in the polls and their leader has maintained a dignified air. "I just rise above it," says Mr Salmond. "There's a quote from Burns that sums it up: 'The mair they talk, the better I'm kent.' Just as they are going to be unremittingly negative we are going to be positive. I've got no doubt that if the Labour Party keeps running this negative campaign they'll go down not just to defeat but to absolute calamity. Although I don't want to keep pointing that out in case they change it."
The party has been able to trot out credible new converts to its cause, including Sir George Mathewson, the man credited with transforming the Royal Bank of Scotland into a global force, and Sir Tom Farmer, the founder of Kwik-Fit. Two weeks ago Brian Souter, of Stagecoach, donated £500,000.
The SNP has also been helped by a struggle between Labour in Scotland and Labour in London over who controls the party's election campaign. John McTernan, Tony Blair's director of political operations at 10 Downing Street, was dispatched north, much to Mr McConnell's chagrin: there has been friction between the two since Mr McConnell sacked Mr McTernan as a Scottish Executive special adviser on becoming First Minister in 2001.
The campaign has also had to contend with continued interference from the Chancellor and his aides: Mr Brown has long regarded Scotland as his personal fiefdom.
If Scots are at long last ending their love affair with Labour, then the reasons are manifold. Tony Blair is now a hugely disliked figure, and Gordon Brown, while more popular than the Prime Minister, is not venerated quite so highly in his homeland as is often presumed.
The Iraq war, the replacement of Trident and New Labour's embrace of the free market have conflicted with Scotland's natural Left-wing bias. This, and the anaemic performance of the Labour administration in Edinburgh, has reinforced the sense that it is time for a change.
With the Scottish Conservatives - who have not benefited from David Cameron's popularity elsewhere, although he will visit regularly over the next five weeks - and the Liberal Democrats bringing up the electoral rear, the SNP is the only alternative available.
The surprising truth is that if Mr Salmond is handed the keys to Bute House, the First Minister's official residence in Edinburgh's Georgian New Town, he will have been sent there by unionists. The Nationalists have gone all-out to court Middle Scotland, hammering home the message that a vote for the SNP in May will not bring about Scottish independence. Not immediately, at least: there will be a referendum on independence in the first four-year term of a Nationalist administration, probably in year three.
Mr Salmond's calculation is that by then an SNP government would still be popular and respected, and would also have a track record on which to campaign. "Basically, we can say to people: 'Look what we've achieved with the powers we have, imagine what we could do with more'," said a source close to the SNP leader.
He is deliberately not scaring the horses, promising that as First Minister, while he will "stand up for Scotland", he will seek "co-operation, not confrontation" with the British government. "The overwhelming majority don't want a government that continually picks fights with Westminster, but neither do they want one that lies back and thinks of London," he argues.
Mr Salmond has also repeatedly pointed out that the current constitutional settlement, under which Scottish MPs at Westminster vote on English matters, but English MPs have no say over what happens north of the Border, is unfair. He refers to an ICM poll by The Sunday Telegraph, last November, which showed majorities in both nations in favour of both Scottish and English independence.
An independent Scotland would continue with the Queen as head of state, he says, and retain close links with England. "Political and economic independence, yes. But England would be our best pal in the world," he insists.
Yet, despite the charm offensive, there is something of the "wolf in sheep's clothing" about the new-look Nationalists. The party's programme for the first 100 days of government should perhaps be setting more alarm bells ringing than it is. As well as publishing a White Paper on an independence referendum, it promises to confront Westminster on a number of issues.
The SNP would demand that control over North Sea oil and gas reserves be given to Scotland, refuse to allow a replacement for Trident on the River Clyde, and call for the Scottish Executive to be put in charge of all fisheries negotiations with Europe. In creating tension between Edinburgh and London, Mr Salmond hopes both to make a stronger case for Scottish independence and to expose the limitations of devolution.
The SNP's ultimate goal remains its biggest problem, though. The same Daily Telegraph poll that confirmed strong backing for the Nationalists found that only 28 per cent supported independence, compared with 51 per cent against. And then there is the tricky business of coalition politics: the Liberals, who would be needed to give any coalition an overall majority, have ruled out partnership unless the referendum plan is scrapped.
And finally, Mr Salmond would be ill-advised to write off Labour completely. With the campaign proper beginning this week, Messrs Blair and Brown will be in town. They might not be the crowd-pleasers of 1997, but they remain big beasts and canny operators.
Labour is also now resorting to outright bribery: this weekend Mr McConnell announced he would scrap road tolls on bridges in Dundee and reduce them in Fife, while it was made clear that the Royal Navy's two new aircraft carriers will be built in Glasgow's Govan shipyards and finished off in Fife. All are areas where Labour stands to lose seats to the SNP in May.
The message for Mr Salmond is clear: if you think it has been dirty so far, it is about to get much, much dirtier.
The Scottish National Party today [Saturday] published more poll questions from the Daily Telegraph YouGov poll, which shows the SNP is winning the campaign on trust, tax and Trident.
The figures showed the following findings (in % terms):
Leaving aside your own views on who would make the best First Minister, which of these do you regard as generally trustworthy?
Alex Salmond 34
Annabelle Goldie 22
Jack McConnell 22
Nicol Stephen 17
Tommy Sheridan 13
Don't know 18
None of the above 21
The Council Tax should be scrapped, and replaced by a local income tax (which would be additional to normal income tax)
Agree 58
Disagree 22
Don't know 21
Scotland should refuse to allow any successor to the Trident nuclear missile system to be based in Scotland
Agree 52
Disagree 28
Don't know 20
Any which of these statements come closer to your own view?
At the moment, Scotland's public spending is subsidised by English taxpayers 20
The tax revenues from North Sea Oil belong to Scotland; when these are taken into account, Scotland subsidises the rest of the UK 53
Don't know 27
SNP Campaign Manager Mr Angus Robertson MP said:
"The SNP are winning the debate on trust, tax and Trident.
"These are powerful poll findings, which show that the SNP positive campaign reflects the mood of Scotland.
Alex Salmond is far and away the most trusted candidate for First Minister.
"And Labour have made the most enormous mistake in defending the unfair Council Tax and attacking the SNP's fair local income tax policy. Overwhelmingly, Scots want to scrap Labour's Council Tax.
"And on Trident and Scotland subsidising the rest of the UK, it's clear that the people of Scotland are with the SNP, and reject Labour's London-led campaign."
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