 | 'This is the first time that the SNP have gone into a Scottish election campaign with a clear lead over Labour. This fact gives us some encouragement for the campaign, but we will taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next month to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people.' Angus Robertson MP, SNP Campaign Director, 29 th March 2007. |  |
A fresh newspaper poll has suggested that the Scottish National Party will be the biggest single political group at Holyrood after 3 May election.
The Scottish Daily Mail survey also predicted a strong showing for the Scottish Green Party.
The results of the poll, by Progressive Scottish Opinions, come the day after The Times poll gave the Nationalists a lead over Labour.
The Mail survey, conducted between 19 and 26 March, involved 1,007 adults.
The newspaper handed its findings to Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde who predicted the breakdown of seats following the poll.
He said the figures translated into 46 Holyrood seats for the SNP; 40 to Labour; 17 to the Lib Dems; 12 to the Tories; 10 to the Greens and four to others.
Based on these figures a coalition with the Lib Dems would give neither the SNP nor Labour a majority.
The poll also suggested that one third of voters were said to be undecided.
On Thursday, SNP leader Alex Salmond was due to unveil his campaign in Edinburgh as the Scottish Parliament meets for the last time before polling day.
'Choice of independence'
He was expected to be joined by deputy Nicola Sturgeon and a range of candidates for Holyrood.
Speaking before the launch, Mr Salmond said: "The SNP go into the election in great heart, with another poll showing the SNP ahead - the sixth this year.
"This is the strongest position the SNP have ever gone into an election campaign.
"The SNP have the ideas, the policies and the ambition to build success for Scotland - to keep healthcare local, lower early years class sizes, tackle crime, boost Scottish business, and ensure that the people of Scotland have the choice of independence in a referendum."
SCOTTISH DAILY MAIL POLL
SNP - 34% (constituency) 32% (list)
Labour - 28% (constituency) 28% (list)
Lib Dems - 11% (constituency) 11% (list)
Tories - 11% (constituency) 10% (list)
Greens - 9% (constituency) 10% (list)
Welcoming today's Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail poll, which shows the SNP ahead of Labour on both the regional and constituency voting intentions for May's Scottish Parliament election, Angus Robertson, the SNP's Campaign Director said it was further evidence that the SNP's positive policies to make the country more successful reflect the optimistic mood of the Scottish people.
Commenting Mr Robertson said:
"This poll is now further evidence that the SNP's positive policies to make the country more successful reflect the optimistic mood of the Scottish people. Labour's negative campaign is simply rebounding on them, and is doing nothing to attract voters while increasing numbers are turning to the SNP.
"It's also now clear that the 'tax con' in Gordon Brown's budget has bombed in Scotland.
"While the SNP are promoting positive and popular policies like abolishing the unfair Council Tax, Labour's attacks on the SNP in defence of this iniquitous tax has turned out to be a spectacular own goal. This issue is a big vote winner for the SNP in this election, which is why it has spectacularly backfired on Labour.
"This is the first time that the SNP have gone into a Scottish election campaign with a clear lead over Labour. This fact gives us some encouragement for the campaign, but we will taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next month to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people."
ENDS
Notes:
The poll, by Progressive Scottish Opinion, interviewed 1007 adults between March 19th and 26th.
Full Results
Constituency Vote (%):
SNP 34
Labour 28
Tory 11
LibDem 11
Green 9
Regional Vote (%):
SNP 32
Lab 28
Tory 10
LibDem 11
Green 10
Seat Prediction:
SNP 46
Lab 40
Tory 12
LibDem 17
Green 10
Others 4
The SNP have been given another boost after a fresh opinion poll suggested they are set to become the biggest single party at Holyrood.
The findings come a day after another poll giving the Nationalists an unprecedented lead over Labour.
The latest poll in the Scottish Daily Mail on the day the SNP launches its election campaign puts the Nationalists well ahead on both the constituency and the list vote.
LABOUR is looking rattled after the latest opinion polls show the SNP with a clear lead just 36 days from the election. If the findings are correct, the Nationalists would be the biggest party in the Scottish Parliament and poised to lead a coalition government.
It wasn't meant to be like this. Labour strategists were relying on SNP support to melt away, as it has so often before when polling day draws near. Instead, for the first time ever the Nationalists are now set to enter the formal election period with a significant lead.
SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon points out that at the equivalent stage in the build-up to the first Scottish Parliament elections in 1999 Labour was ahead by 13 points. Labour is still hoping voters will pull back at the last minute from giving their support to a party which wants to "break up Britain".
But the Nationalists have managed to maintain a consistent lead for several months now. Yesterday's Populus poll - which put the SNP ten points ahead in the constituency vote and seven points ahead on the regional vote - seemed to hit Labour with the sudden realisation they really could lose. And a Scottish Opinion survey today endorses that view, showing the Nationalists with leads of six points and four points.
Labour activists insist the findings do not match what they are finding on the doorsteps, but senior figures admit the party is in trouble and there is little doubt the leadership is seriously worried.
Interestingly, the Populus poll found that despite the SNP's lead, support for the party's core principle of independence was just 27 per cent, compared with 52 per cent who wanted Scotland to stay within the UK but with more powers at Holyrood. That has prompted Labour to claim it has won the argument on independence and just needs to translate that into votes on May 3.
The trouble is the gap between support for the SNP and support for independence suggests people are choosing the Nationalists for some other reason - and that almost certainly means disillusionment with Labour. But despite Labour's focus on independence, the SNP has made it clear it will not take victory at the election as a mandate to start negotiations with Westminster on separation.
The question of Scotland's independence would be decided by a referendum, probably in 2010. Ms Sturgeon says: "What people will be voting for on May 3 is a change of government."
And that sums up Labour's problem. If people have decided it's "time for a change" and the mood is against them, then they face an uphill struggle to regain support. Some in the Labour camp believe the party's campaign so far has been too negative and it needs to send out more positive messages about Labour's achievements and proposals for the future.
But there is no sign of the party dropping the mantra which every Labour politician is expected to parrot about the Nats - "You don't get the SNP without independence - and you don't get independence without a cost".
One Labour insider says: "If you keep repeating the same thing over and over again people just get fed up and stop listening, but the ones in charge want to keep on with the negative stuff because it worked for us last time."
Another Labour source says several more polls are due out over the next week or so, which could change the picture. "By the end of next week, we might have a very different perspective on things," he says.
The SNP is prepared for fluctuations in the polls between now and May 3. It accepts the ups and downs of the campaign could have an impact on the party's ratings, but the Nationalists believe they are enjoying a boost from their conference in Glasgow a couple of weeks ago, which they hope will give them an extra cushion.
There was some good news for Labour in the Populus poll: Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond were equal on 27 per cent when people were asked who would make the best First Minister. That came as a surprise, given previous polls which have shown Mr Salmond with a big lead over the present incumbent. But Labour claims polling shows the more people see of Mr Salmond, the less they like him.
Populus claimed its poll findings would give the SNP 50 seats, Labour 43, the Lib Dems 18, the Tories 17 and the Greens one. But even SNP strategists take these projections with a pinch of salt because they underestimate the Greens and ignore independents and minority parties.
Scottish Opinion says today's poll would mean 46 seats for the SNP, 40 for Labour, 17 Lib Dems, 12 Tories, ten greens and four others. That would leave an SNP-Lib Dem partnership two short of a majority but possibly able to form a coalition with Green backing.
Neither the Lib Dems nor the Tories can take much comfort from the poll, which leaves them with more or less the same number of MSPs as now.
The Lib Dems have been fairly quiet so far, although leader Nicol Stephen did promise to cut red tape for businesses, which seemed a good idea until it was pointed out he has been Enterprise Minister for nearly two years.
And the Conservatives made a lacklustre start to the campaign earlier this week when their launch took the form of a brief 20-minute press conference in the vacant top floor of a half-empty office block in Holyrood Road.
The megaphones they used for their photocall didn't work either - but perhaps the silence was welcome. There will be plenty of noise over the next few weeks.
TRAINSPOTTING author Irvine Welsh was today due to throw his weight behind demands for an independence referendum as another poll showed the SNP maintaining its lead over Labour.
Welsh was expected to join fellow writer Alasdair Gray, River City actress Joyce Falconer and folk singer Dick Gaughan in Edinburgh this afternoon for an event staged by non-party campaign group Independence First and the Scottish Independence Convention, which brings together the pro-independence parties.
Today's event comes ahead of a referendum march through the Capital on Saturday, ending in a rally outside the Scottish Parliament. The parliament was today meeting for the last time before the election - its final debate on the topic of "Scotland's future".
And the SNP was due to launch its election campaign this afternoon, claiming the party is in its strongest ever position.
A new opinion poll published today suggested the Scottish Nationalists still have a clear lead over Labour.
The survey by Scottish Opinion put the SNP six points ahead in the constituency vote and four points ahead on the regional vote. It calculated that would give the Nationalists 46 seats to Labour's 40. The Liberal Democrats would have 17, the Tories 12, the Greens ten and others four.
The SNP and the Lib Dems would not have enough seats for a majority coalition, but may be able to form an administration with Green support.
Today's poll follows a Populus survey published yesterday which gave the SNP a ten-point lead in the constituency vote and a seven-point lead on the list, resulting in a projected 50 seats to Labour's 43. The SNP believes the poll findings show Labour's "negative" campaign - warning of the dire consequences of independence - has backfired and the Budget's 2p cut in income tax has had little effect.
Speaking before the SNP's campaign launch, leader Alex Salmond said: "The SNP go into the election in great heart, with another poll showing the SNP ahead - the sixth this year.
"The SNP have the ideas, the policies and the ambition to build success for Scotland - to keep healthcare local, lower early-years class sizes, tackle crime, boost Scottish business and ensure the people of Scotland have the choice of independence in a referendum."
Labour put a brave face on the findings and said that there was still everything to play for in the elections on May 3.
Health Minister Andy Kerr said the poll represented a critical moment for the election campaign. I think it offers the prospect of an SNP government here in Scotland and clearly our task is to ensure that doesn't happen," Mr Kerr said.
But a Labour insider said there was mounting dismay at the disarray in the party's campaign.
Saturday's march and rally will include music from Mouse Eat Mouse, Project Bona Fide and Karen Polwart.
A spokesman for Independence First said: "We don't have any political policies at all - just an attempt to get independence through a referendum."
The SNP launched its election campaign yesterday with a claim by leader Alex Salmond that Labour was facing not just defeat but "absolute calamity".
Buoyed by a second day of good newspaper poll results, the Nationalists' biggest enemy will become complacency, such is the spring in their step as they enter the uncharted territory of sustaining a lead into the final month of campaigning.
Labour, in contrast, tried to turn the sombre polling figures to their advantage. Visiting a school construction site in Midlothian with Communities Minister and local MSP Rhona Brankin, Jack McConnell said: "The polls are a wake-up call to Scotland.
"They are a call to the people of Scotland to realise how serious is the threat of the SNP - and how important it is that they come out and vote and back Labour to build up Scotland for another four years."
SNP MSPs and their staff walked out of the parliament as it closed for business yesterday afternoon and marched across town to join other party candidates at a hotel to hear a rallying call from Mr Salmond.
A Daily Mail poll conducted by Scottish Opinion gave the SNP a six-point lead over Labour - by 34% to 28% - in the constituency vote, and a 32% to 28% lead in the regional list vote. While down on the even bigger leads - 10 points and five points respectively - recorded by Populus for the Times the previous day, these polls still represent unprecedented figures for the SNP so close to an election.
Mr Salmond claimed that the reason for this was the negativity of the Labour campaign and the way in which on key issues such as Trident, a share of oil wealth and more powers for the Scottish Parliament the SNP was running with the grain of Scottish popular opinion.
"If the Labour Party keep running this campaign they will go down not just to defeat but to absolute calamity," he predicted. "Scotland is in the process of independence and will become independent when the people so choose."
He said unionists believed they could contain the independence, using devolution to "kill nationalism stone dead".
But he said: "You cannot put boundaries on the march of a nation."
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