 | 'Mr Brown could go into the next general election with the Nationalists the largest single party in his own backyard, and facing the prospect of an SNP-led minority executive in Edinburgh seeking to challenge him at every turn.' Angus Macleod and Philip Webster in the Times, 28 th March 2007. |  |
The SNP is heading for victory in the Scottish parliamentary elections on May 3, in what would be a severe blow to Gordon Brown shortly before he becomes Prime Minister, an opinion poll for The Times suggests today.
Mr Brown could go into the next general election with the Nationalists the largest single party in his own backyard, and facing the prospect of an SNP-led minority executive in Edinburgh seeking to challenge him at every turn.
The Populus poll puts the Nationalists ahead of Labour in both the first-past-the-post and proportional-representation sections. They are on track to win 50 seats in the 129-seat Scottish Parliament, seven more than Labour. The Liberal Democrats would have 18 MSPs, the Conservatives 17 and the Greens one.
If the SNP leader Alex Salmond becomes First Minister, Mr Brown would face taunts that he would be a Scot in power in England whose writ did not run on issues such as health, education and transport in Scotland. And Mr Brown, if he becomes Prime Minister, would also be swiftly reminded that the Conservatives secured narrowly more votes in England than Labour at the last general election - leaving him open to claims that he has a mandate in neither country.
Today's poll comes amid increasing signs that Mr Brown is unlikely to face a serious challenge for the Labour leadership. Some Blairite ministers have tried vainly to keep alive the prospect of a challenge by David Miliband, the Environment Secretary. Tony Blair is reported by friends to be irritated by what he sees as misguided attempts by some of his own allies to damage Mr Brown, believing they can only harm his party's attempt to win a fourth term.
Mr Brown has tried to defuse opposition to a Scot running England by making a series of speeches about Britishness in recent years. It is possible that three Scots, Mr Brown, Alistair Darling, who could become Chancellor, and John Reid, who could stay as Home Secretary, will fill three of the main offices of state by the summer. But Jack Straw, who is to run Mr Brown's campaign, is also reemerging as a contender to take over the Treasury.
The poll is not all good news for the SNP. A majority of Scots (52 per cent) are in favour of more devolved powers for their Parliament in Edinburgh and only just over one in four (27 per cent) backs full independence. The Nationalists have promised a referendum on separation towards the end of the new Parliament.
While Labour and the other unionist parties will take some comfort in that, the poll suggests that the SNP is about to take advantage of a widespread antiLabour sentiment. On the constituency or first-past-the-post vote, the Nationalists are on 38 per cent support to Labour's 28 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 15 per cent, the Conservatives on 14 per cent and all others on 6 per cent.
In the regional list or proportional representation section, the Nationalists are also ahead, on 35 per cent to Labour's 30 per cent. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are tied on 14 per cent.
The seat breakdown would give Mr Salmond the alternatives of a coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats or a minority Scottish Executive administration. The only way that the Nationalists could be stopped, on these figures, is if the three pro-Union parties - Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives - jointly came to some form of formal or informal coalition agrement to keep the SNP out of power.
A third successive Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition in Edinburgh appears to be out of the question. The two parties between them, on the Populus figures, would be able to muster only 61 seats. The poll, conducted after last week's Budget, also indicates that Mr Brown's 2p cut in the basic rate of income tax has made no impression on SNP support. The poll represents an advance for the SNP compared with an ICM poll for The Scotsman at the end of February which gave the Nationalists a 5 per cent lead over Labour on the constituency vote and a 4 per cent lead on the regional list vote.
Mr Salmond said the poll showed that the SNP's policies were reflecting the mood of Scotland. "Labour's negative campaign is rebounding on them in disastrous fashion. It is great news for the SNP and Scotland," he said.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults in Scotland by telephone between March 21 and 25, 2007. More details: www.populuslimited.com
For a country that in five weeks could be taking a significant step towards leaving the 300-year Union with the rest of the United Kingdom, Scotland appears remarkably restrained.
The streets are not filled with protesters demanding independence and there is no obvious upsurge of nationalistic sentiment but, as the Populus poll for The Times indicates today, a political earthquake is taking place north of the border. For the first time in almost 50 years, Labour, according to our poll, is about to lose an election in Scotland. Devolution is about to deliver the kind of electoral blow to Labour in Scotland that these five decades of rule from Westminster could not.
While the rest of Britain could flit promiscuously between parties, Scotland was always loyal to Labour. Even when Mrs Thatcher was in her pomp and laying waste to political enemies across the rest of Britain, the Scots remained unimpressed and dutifully returned a majority of Labour MPs.
Labour's demise in a devolved Scotland cannot be laid wholly at the door of Jack McConnell, the Labour First Minister. True, he has not been the most inspiring of political leaders and has lacked any real presence, but his coalition administration, along with the Liberal Democrats, has wrought some improvement in public services and brought about modest economic growth. The one real political risk Mr McConnell took when he introduced a ban on smoking in public places grabbed the right kind of headlines and has been a success.
The worm eating away at Labour support in Scotland, however, is not Scottish. Rather, as Labour strategists now admit privately, the problem is a prime minister widely perceived as past his sell-by date and irredeemably associated in the minds of voters with an unending debacle in Iraq and the scandal of cash for honours. Add deep Scottish opposition to the renewal of Trident on the Clyde and, as one Labour insider put it: "We are fighting against a tide. The Nats are winning because they're not Labour."
Mr Blair's devolution legacy, it seems, will be a loosening of the ties that bind Scotland to England. Mr Brown's devolution inheritance will be to have his right to rule in his own Scottish backyard challenged again and again by a nationalist party in power in Scotland.
On the evidence of this poll, it will now take a major gaffe by the nationalists and their leader, Alex Salmond, not to emerge early on May 4 as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament.
Mr Salmond has been allowed to fight the guerrilla-style campaign at which he is adept. When Labour thought last week that it had an open goal on SNP plans for a local income tax, Mr Salmond simply moved the goalposts and returned to his favourite theme: the alleged failings of the Prime Minister. Mr Salmond has even felt comfortable enough to take up "independence for England" as a theme and to speculate on the benefits of an independence-lite "social union" (shared monarchy, shared currency, shared interests).
Mr Salmond will also know, however, that he is not there yet. The poll proves that support for Scottish separation is still a minority pursuit, with only just over one in four Scots supporting it. If the SNP holds its cherished referendum on independence in 2010, it would, on these figures, lose it easily.
When the dust has settled on the probable May 3 result, Mr Salmond as first minister could elect to rule in minority in Edinburgh or attempt a majority coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems say without hesitation that they would never countenance a coalition allowing a referendum on Scottish independence but, given what has happened in Stormont these past few days, "never" can be a flexible word in politics.
In all this, Labour and Mr Brown as prime minister (and indeed David Cameron) will be largely spectators. Who said devolution was boring?
It is not unusual for the Scottish National Party (SNP) to have an opinion poll lead north of the Border five months before an election. It is unprecedented for it to be in that position a mere five weeks before the ballot boxes are opened. Yet this is, the Populus/ Times survey today indicates, precisely the situation. Alex Salmond and his supporters are on course to win both the most votes and the largest number of seats in Scotland on May 3. If that were to occur, the implications for all British politics would be considerable. The SNP would have a real chance of implementing its pledge to hold a referendum on independence within the next three years.
There are, of course, caveats here. This same poll shows that, while there is public backing for the Scottish Parliament to assume additional powers, the appetite for an outright divorce from the rest of the United Kingdom is limited. The voters appear to have become disillusioned with Labour under the leadership of Jack McConnell, the First Minister, far more than they have been seduced by the SNP. The electoral system in this contest, furthermore, is proportional. While the SNP would, on this evidence, claim more MSPs than Labour, it would come nowhere close to a majority. It would require coalition partners to form an administration and these would be in short supply. The Liberal Democrats, for example, who will probably secure the role of kingmakers, do not want to share office with Mr Salmond if he insists on a vote over independence.
Labour cannot afford, though, to rest on its laurels. If the SNP does as well as seems likely, it will be the moral victor in this election, even if it is denied power. The only alternatives to it would either be a "traffic light" combination of red, yellow and green (Labour, the Lib Dems and the small Green Party), or a minority Labour-Lib Dem coalition sustained by the tacit backing of the Conservatives. In either case, the Cabinet that emerged would be weak and Mr Salmond could contend with some credibility that the old parties had conspired to keep him out and deny Scots a vote on independence. He would then be well placed for the 2011 Scottish election.
Labour should therefore be seeking to win this election by the front door rather than relying on what would now be doubtless smoke-free rooms in which to strike a bargain with other parties. It has to be a lot more attractive to the electorate than it has been. This involves admitting that it is less the authority awarded to the Scottish Parliament that is the problem than that Labour itself has been too unimaginative with the power it possesses already. Scotland essentially has endured an old Labour government which has been too inclined to look to the State for salvation. Scottish Labour's troubles are less Tony Blair than the absence of Blairism.
This race will become closer as polling day approaches. Most Scots appreciate that Mr Salmond is, for all his charisma, untested at the highest level and that the SNP as a whole is a very left-wing party which is even less inclined than Labour to undertake sweeping reforms. It will not be enough, nevertheless, for Labour to bash the SNP as a vote for the unknown and hope to scare Scotland into rejecting it. It is hard to contend that a democratic ballot on independence is an outrageous suggestion. Labour, as the natural party of government in Scotland, has yet to make a case for itself which is compelling. At the moment, it is hard to envisage what such an argument would be.
The news from Scotland this morning must have hit Downing Street with the kind of shock that Macbeth experienced when he was told that Birnam Wood had begun to move in the general direction of Dunsinane. "Ring the alarum bell!" he cried, as he saw the fulfilment of the witches' prophecies of doom. "At least we'll die with harness on our back."
Tony Blair may not have used quite those words, but the sentiment was much the same. If today's Populus poll in The Times is to be believed - and it echoes a trend that is beginning to grow steadily harder - then Labour is about to lose political control of a country that, for more than 50 years, it has regarded as its heartland.
A 10 per cent lead by the Scottish National Party would give it a seven-seat majority in the Scottish Parliament, enabling its leader, Alex Salmond, to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, or to chance his arm and govern as a minority party. Either way it would be a savage blow for Labour, which has regarded itself as the natural party of government in Scotland for as long as most voters can remember. It would be a damning verdict on Mr Blair's premiership, on Gordon Brown's economic policies, and on the devolution experiment so far. The prediction once made by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen that devolution would "kill nationalism stone dead" has backfired spectacularly.
A few things need to be said right away. First, this is a poll, not the real thing - and the election campaign is yet to begin in earnest; secondly, it is very far from a clarion call for independence - only 27 per cent of those polled actually want Scotland to leave the United Kingdom; nor is it a rebuff for devolution itself - 52 per cent would like the Parliament to have more power, not less; and Mr Salmond, for all the high recognition he enjoys, wins no better ratings, at 27 per cent, than his rival, the First Minister, Jack McConnell.
This is, primarily, a stinging rebuff to Mr Blair, who has succeeded in winning for himself a level of unpopularity that has not been witnessed north of the Border since Margaret Thatcher introduced the poll tax; in this case it is Iraq that has been the aggravating factor. For Mr Brown, too, the poll is grim news, because it suggests that he may take over as Prime Minister just as his homeland is turning its back on a decade of steady if unspectacular economic growth under his chancellorship.
More than that, however, it means that he will be fighting a political war on two fronts, taking on Tories south of the Border and Nationalists north of it. Mr Salmond and the SNP, if they do command a majority, are pledged to pursue the issue of independence from Day 1, thus provoking a constitutional crisis as well as a political one.
Mr Salmond is well aware that independence does not rank high on the Scottish agenda. But he believes that, once in power, he can promote it as the best option for the future of the nation. Within 100 days of being elected, he has pledged to introduce a White Paper setting out the terms of a referendum. He has even devised the question: "The Scottish Parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British Government, based on the proposals set out in the White Paper, so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state. Do you agree or disagree?"
He has said that he would hold the referendum towards the end of his first four-year term of office, by which time, he argues, the SNP would have proved itself in government. As only Westminster has the power, to run a full-blown referendum with binding conclusions, the Salmond version would have to take the form of a "consultative" process; but if passed it would be hard to ignore.
What can Mr Brown and Labour do to claw back the ground? The first thing, of course, is to win, not lose the election - and in the next four weeks we will see some of the most ferocious campaigning that Scotland has witnessed. On my mobile phone yesterday came the latest in a series of messages from Labour, promising revelations about "Wee Alex's" dubious proposals, and we will see much more of this kind of thing as the party sets out to expose the weaknesses of the SNP's tax-and-spend policies, and to warn the country about the dangers of separation.
But if the SNP really does go on to win the election, there is another way that Mr Brown could turn the situation to his advantage. For all that Mr Salmond's commitment to a referendum is portrayed as a strength, it is in reality a serious weakness. The Lib Dems - the only serious contenders as coalition partners - have stated that they would refuse to form a government with the SNP so long as the referendum is part of their manifesto.
The Nationalists, clinging perhaps to the slimmest of majorities, would hardly have tasted power before they faced defeat at the hands of their opponents on a key political issue. Even if they did go on to hold a referendum, it would, if held in the present climate of opinion, almost certainly be lost. A "no" vote would not only be a public humiliation for the Nationalists, it would deprive them of their flagship policy.
Mr Brown, meanwhile, could present himself to the Scots and the English as the champion of a united Britain, thus winning back useful ground with those of his critics who are wary of his Scottish background. And he could do something even sharper - he could shoot the Nationalist fox between the eyes. Instead of waiting for Mr Salmond to come up with his consultative exercise, he could announce his own referendum Bill, which would introduce the real thing - a proper nationwide and binding poll asking the Scots what kind of future arrangement they really wanted.
And he could devise his own question, perhaps something along the lines of: "The Scottish National Party proposes that Scotland should leave the United Kingdom and go it alone. Do you agree or disagree?" You don't need a witch to prophesy the outcome of that one.
A poll suggests the Scottish National Party has a clear lead over Labour in the run-up to the Holyrood election.
The Populus survey, commissioned and published by The Times newspaper, puts the SNP ahead of its rivals in the constituency and regional list battles.
However, the poll also suggests that people in Scotland want their country to remain a part of the UK.
The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted from 21 to 25 March, a period spanning the Budget and its aftermath.
When asked for their views on Scotland's future, 52% of those polled by Populus thought the country should remain part of the UK but with more powers to run its own affairs, with 27% favouring complete independence.
The poll found that 12% thought the current arrangements for devolution worked well and 6% thought too much power had already been devolved to Holyrood.
The poll showed an SNP lead of 10 points in the constituency vote and five points ahead in the regional vote.
The figures are claimed to be the best of any published poll rating for the SNP since 2005 - and the worst for Labour since last June.
Populus calculates that the poll would result in the SNP being the biggest single party with 50 seats, compared with 43 for Labour; 18 for the Liberal Democrats; 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.
Other figures in the poll contradict previous survey findings which put SNP leader Alex Salmond ahead as a potential first minister.
The SNP said the poll showed that its "positive" policies to make Scotland more successful reflected the Scottish mood.
Deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "The poll also shows that Labour's negative campaign is rebounding on them.
"Gordon Brown's tax-con Budget has bombed in Scotland.
"For the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead.
More powers
"That gives us encouragement, but we are taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next 36 days to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people."
Labour's Scottish Health Minister, Andy Kerr, said in response to the figures: "This poll shows that there is a clear choice between building Scotland with Labour and breaking up Britain with the SNP.
"Sustained attack from Labour has led to support for independence almost halving in less than a month because Scottish families fear the risk of the SNP's core policy."
Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrat's election director, said: "This poll shows strong support for the Liberal Democrat policy of more powers for the Scottish Parliament."
TIMES POLL FINDINGS
SNP - 38% (constituency) 35% (list)
Labour - 28% (constituency) 30% (list)
Lib Dems - 15% (constituency) 14% (list)
Tories - 14% (constituency) 14% (list)
Others - 6% (constituency) 7% (list)
LEADER POPULARITY
Jack McConnell - 27%
Alex Salmond - 27%
Annabel Goldie - 10%
Nicol Stephen - 5%
The SNP has a double-digit lead over Labour with a month to go until the Scottish elections, a new poll today found.
The 10-point lead, backed up with a seven-point lead in the "top up" regional seats, would make the nationalists the largest party in Holyrood and make Alex Salmond first minister.
However, the poll also found that only 27% of Scots want independence - the key plank of the SNPs manifesto.
It also creates post-election conundrums, with the SNP likely to need the Liberal Democrats as coalition partners. Their leader, Nicol Stephen, has ruled out backing a referendum as part of any deal.
With the election on May 3, it also creates the nightmare scenario for Gordon Brown of potentially becoming the UK prime minister just after Scotland has voted decisively against Labour.
However, a separate survey, for today's Independent, suggests the chancellor's budget may have restored some support for Labour.
His 2p cut in basic income tax was found to have slashed the Tories' putative lead from 11 points to just four.
But in the Scottish poll, for the Times by Populus, the SNP's lead is far bigger than the 2-6% margin it has enjoyed over Jack McConnell's Labour so far.
In the constituency vote, the SNP is running at 38% to Labour's 28%.The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the Tories have 14%, and other parties 6%.
In the regional vote the SNP are running at 35% to Labour's 30%, the Liberal Democrats' 14%, the Tories 14%, and 7% for others.
These figures would make the SNP the biggest single party, with 50 seats compared with 43 for Labour, 18 for the Liberal Democrats, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.
Labour's Scottish health minister, Andy Kerr, said in response to the figures: "Over the coming weeks we will focus on the £11bn black hole at the heart of the SNP's spending plans and the £5,000 tax hike that they will impose on Scottish families every year.
"Tax will be the dividing line of this election. You don't get the SNP without independence - and you don't get independence without a cost."
The SNP said the poll showed its "positive" policies to make Scotland more successful reflected the Scottish mood.
"The poll also shows that Labour's negative campaign is rebounding on them," said the SNP's deputy leader, Nicola Sturgeon.
"Gordon Brown's tax-con budget has bombed in Scotland."
Like the Scottish football team, the SNP are world champions when it comes to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. So there is little triumphalism in the party at their recent opinion poll surge. They know only too well how quickly things can change.
The latest Populus poll in the Times, puts them 10 points ahead of Labour with six weeks to go before polling day. Recent polls from ICM and Yougov have placed the nationalists between six and eight percent ahead. But SNP leaders are acutely aware that the voters are supporting them, not because they are enthused by the prospect of independence but because they are deeply disillusioned with Labour and Tony Blair in particular. Only around a third of voters appear to want to dissolve the United Kingdom.
Labour see it this way too,, which perhaps explains their complacency on the eve of what looks like certain defeat. The first minister, Jack McConnell's people console themselves that, since the Scots don't really want independence, they will naturally gravitate to their traditional party of choice.
However, this doesn't necessarily follow. Scottish voters are now much more familiar with the proportional voting system after two Holyrood elections. They realise that the SNP would have to form a coalition with a unionist party, the Liberal Democrats, if it wants to enter government. With the SNP's promised referendum on independence, this places a "double lock" on the constitution. The Scots needn't fear becoming independent by accident.
This is one reason why the voters have refused to respond to Labour's recent scare tactics. Labour ministers have been warning that an independent Scotland would lose UK subsidies of £11bn a year. "Divorce is an expensive business" as their campaign puts it. But the Scots don't see it as a legal separation.
There is an unmistakable air of self-confidence abroad in Scotland right now, which is allowing people here to think more creatively about relations with the UK. This confidence may largely be down to the success of Labour economic policies - and inflated house prices - but it is loosening the ties of insecurity that bound Scotland to the UK exchequer.
Most Scots seem to favour, not separation, but extending the powers of the Scottish parliament. They want a parliament that looks and behaves less like a Labour local council and more like national champion.
Inexplicably, Labour have decided to reject any significant alteration or enhancement of Holyrood's powers. Last weekend, the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, told Scots that the parliament had to make best use of the powers it already has before seeking new ones.
This set Labour against an increasing number of influential voices in Scotland, like the former boss of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Sir George Mathewson, who have been saying that Holyrood needs economic powers to end the dependency culture in Scotland. He also said the SNP had the most effective leader and that he would be voting nationalist in May.
For pillars of the a Scottish business establishment - RBS is Scotland's most successful company - to be openly voting SNP is remarkable, given the party's socialist past. Tony Blair accused Mathewson of bring "self indulgent" when he made this comment a fortnight ago. That went down badly.
The exchange was typical of a Labour campaign which has been flat-footed and off key. Jack McConnell has sunk without trace, refusing repeatedly to debate with the SNP leader Alex Salmond. The UK Health Secretary, Patricia Hewitt twice got his name wrong in a TV interview this week, which appeared to sum up his political insignificance.
Labour has allowed the SNP to seized the political initiative. For the first time in its history the nationalists have a well funded campaign, thanks to donations from Scottish businessmen. And the SNP has been winning the propaganda war
At the weekend, the party announced the intended date of its independence referendum would be in 2010, after the nationalists have had time to "prove themselves in government".
The question would be as follows: "The Scottish parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government..so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state." Yes or no.
This places the constitutional ball is very much at the feet of the Scottish parliament. Gone are the days when the SNP promised that, on the day after winning a general election, it would begin negotiations with London on secession. Independence will only happen if the Scottish Parliament as a whole - not just its largest party, actively votes for it.
Alex Salmond has pledged to maintain the "social union" with the UK; to retain the
Queen as head of state; and keep the pound sterling, at least for the time being. Indeed, the question, as the SNP drives forward to May, is whether it is still a nationalist party at all in the conventional sense. It may not be long now till we find out.
LONDON (Reuters) - Scottish nationalists look set to win a May election in Scotland in what would be a major blow to Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labour Party, according to a newspaper poll published on Wednesday.
The Populus poll in the Times named the Scottish National Party (SNP) as front-runner in the May 3 election for both the first-past-the-post and proportional representation seats in the Edinburgh parliament.
The party was on target to take 50 parliamentary seats, while Labour would win 43, according to the survey. It also found that the Liberal Democrats would have 18 seats, with the Conservatives taking 17 and the Greens one.
Such a division would give SNP leader Alex Salmond the choice of a coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats or a minority Scottish Executive, the Times said. This outcome could only be stopped if Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives formed their own coalition agreement, it added.
Scotland has been a traditional Labour support base but anger over Blair's backing for the Iraq war and disillusionment with his government have fuelled support for the SNP.
The current Scottish Executive is a coalition between the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish Liberal Democrat Party.
Populus interviewed 1,000 adults in Scotland by telephone between March 21 and 25.
SCOTTISH Nationalists have increased their lead over Labour and are on course to become the biggest party at Holyrood, a new opinion poll showed today.
The Populus survey put the SNP ten points ahead on the constituency vote and seven points ahead on the regional vote.
This would give the Nationalists 50 of the Scottish Parliament's 129 seats, Labour 43, the Liberal Democrats 18, the Tories 17 and the Greens one.
But the poll also showed support for independence, the SNP's core policy, was just 27 per cent, well down on other recent polls.
And SNP leader Alex Salmond and Labour's Jack McConnell emerged on level pegging when people were asked who would make the best First Minister.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults in Scotland by telephone between last Wednesday and Sunday in the wake of the Budget.
The poll, for The Times newspaper, will dash Labour's hopes that the SNP had "peaked" well ahead of the May 3 elections.
However, the large number backing the SNP but not independence could be taken as evidence the Nationalists are benefiting from disillusionment with Labour rather than a surge in support for their cause.
SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon today claimed the poll showed Labour's "negative" campaign was rebounding on it and the Chancellor's 2p cut in income tax had failed to lift its fortunes.
She said: "The SNP are campaigning hard in Edinburgh and Lothian, and we are getting a fantastic response.
"Gordon Brown's 'tax con' Budget has bombed in Edinburgh and throughout Scotland.
"For the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead.
"That gives us encouragement, but we are taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next 36 days to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people."
But Labour's Andy Kerr claimed the findings suggested his party's warnings about the cost of independence were hitting home.
He said: "This poll shows there is a clear choice between building Scotland with Labour and breaking up Britain with the SNP.
"Sustained attack from Labour has led to support for independence almost halving in less than a month, down to just 27 per cent, because Scottish families fear the risk of the SNP's core policy.
"Over the coming weeks we will focus on the £11 billion black hole in the SNP's spending plans and the £5000 tax hike they will impose on families every year.
"Tax will be the dividing line of this election. You don't get the SNP without independence - and you don't get independence without a cost."
The figures are said to be the best of any published poll rating for the SNP since 2005 - and the worst for Labour since last June.
The SNP would have enough seats to form a coalition with the Lib-Dems, but Labour would not.
Asked about Scotland's future, 52 per cent said the country should remain part of the UK but with more powers to run its own affairs, and just 27 per cent favoured complete independence.
Other figures in the poll contradict previous survey findings which put Mr Salmond ahead as a potential First Minister.
The Populus figures give Mr McConnell and Mr Salmond 27 per cent each followed by ten per cent for Tory leader Annabel Goldie and five per cent for Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen.
The SNP has a clear lead over Labour in the looming Scottish election, according to a new poll.
Nationalists are well ahead of Labour in the battle for constituency and regional seats on May 3, and are set to be the biggest single party at Holyrood, the figures suggest.
But the poll also found most Scots want Scotland to stay in the UK, albeit with more powers for Holyrood.
Just 27 per cent believe Scotland should be a fully independent state, according to the Populus poll for The Times.
But the scale of the SNP lead - 10 points ahead in the constituency vote and seven points ahead in the regional vote - is likely to set alarm balls ringing in the Labour camp.
Its campaign so far has placed much emphasis on dire warnings that voting SNP could lead to independence.
But these figures suggest this is not working as a scare tactic.
And the high numbers backing the SNP but not independence could mean the Nationalists are the beneficiaries of a big anti-Labour protest vote.
Labour's Scottish health minister, Andy Kerr, said in response to the figures: "This poll shows that there is a clear choice between building Scotland with Labour and breaking up Britain with the SNP.
"Sustained attack from Labour has led to support for independence almost halving in less than a month - down to just 27 per cent - because Scottish families fear the risk of the SNP's core policy.
"Over the coming weeks we will focus on the £11 billion black hole at the heart of the SNP's spending plans and the £5,000 tax hike that they will impose on Scottish families every year.
"Tax will be the dividing line of this election. You don't get the SNP without independence - and you don't get independence without a cost."
The SNP said the poll showed its "positive" policies to make Scotland more successful reflected the Scottish mood.
"The poll also shows that Labour's negative campaign is rebounding on them," said deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon.
"Gordon Brown's tax-con Budget has bombed in Scotland."
She went on: "The SNP are pledged to scrap the council tax, and Labour's attacks on the SNP in defence of this iniquitous tax is a spectacular own-goal.
"Labour's unfair council tax and the SNP policy for fair local tax will be a major campaign issue.
"It is a big winner for the SNP in this election - overwhelmingly, people back the SNP in wanting to axe the council tax."
Ms Sturgeon said: "For the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead.
"That gives us encouragement, but we are taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next 36 days to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people."
The figures are said to be the best of any published poll rating for the SNP since 2005 - and the worst for Labour since last June.
The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted from March 21-25, a period spanning the Budget and its aftermath.
In the constituency vote, the SNP was running at 38 per cent to Labour's 28 per cent, the Liberal Democrats' 15 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent and 6 per cent for others.
In the regional vote the SNP are running at 35 per cent to Labour's 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats' 14 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent, and 7 per cent for others.
These figures, Populus calculates, would make the SNP the biggest single party with 50 seats compared to 43 for Labour, 18 for the Liberal Democrats, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.
This would be enough for the SNP and the Liberals to form a coalition, if they could get over the stumbling block of the Liberal Democrats' insistence that they could not back an independence referendum.
When asked for their views on Scotland's future, 52 per cent of those polled by Populus thought the country should remain part of the UK but with more powers to run its own affairs, and just 27 per cent favoured complete independence.
Twelve per cent thought the current arrangements for devolution worked well.
And six per cent thought too much power had already been devolved to Holyrood.
Other figures in the poll contradict previous survey findings which put SNP leader Alex Salmond ahead as a potential First Minister.
The Populus figures give Jack McConnell and Mr Salmond 27 per cent each followed by 10 per cent for Tory leader Annabel Goldie and five per cent for Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen.
Labour is heading for meltdown in the looming Scottish election, according to a poll that gives the SNP a clear lead.
Nationalists are well ahead of Labour in the battle for constituency and regional seats on May 3, and are set to be the biggest single party at Holyrood, the figures suggest.
But the poll also found most Scots want Scotland to stay in the UK, albeit with more powers for Holyrood. Just 27% believe Scotland should be a fully independent state, according to the Populus poll for The Times.
But the scale of the SNP lead - 10 points ahead in the constituency vote and seven points ahead in the regional vote - is likely to set alarm balls ringing in the Labour camp.
Its campaign so far has placed much emphasis on dire warnings that voting SNP could lead to independence. But these figures suggest this is not working as a scare tactic.
Welcoming the Populus poll in the Times today [Wednesday], the Scottish National Party Deputy Leader Ms Nicola Sturgeon MSP said that the SNP's positive policies to make the country more successful were reflecting the mood of Scotland.
"This poll shows that the SNP's positive policies to make the country more successful reflect the mood of Scotland. The poll also shows that Labour's negative campaign is rebounding on them.
"Gordon Brown's 'tax con' Budget has bombed in Scotland.
"The SNP are pledged to scrap the Council Tax, and Labour's attacks on the SNP in defence of this iniquitous tax is a spectacular own goal. Labour's unfair Council Tax and the SNP policy for fair local tax will be a major campaign issue. It is a big winner for the SNP in this election - overwhelmingly, people back the SNP in wanting to axe the Council Tax (1).
"For the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead. That gives us encouragement, but we are taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next 36 days to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people."
ENDS
Notes:
1. Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults in Scotland by telephone between March 21 and 25, i.e. after the Budget.Ê The ratings are:
Constituency vote (%):
SNP: 38%
Lab: 28%
Lib: 15%
Con: 14%
Oth: 6%
Regional list vote (%):
SNP: 35%
Lab: 30%
Lib: 14%
Con: 14%
Oth: 7%
2. A YouGov poll commissioned by the SNP (13-19 February), showed that 70% of people think that the Council Tax is an unfair system of local taxation; only 15% think it is fair.Ê 66% think that Council Tax should be replaced by local income tax; only 18% think it should remain as a property tax.
The SNP has a clear lead over Labour in the looming Scottish election, according to a new poll.
Nationalists are well ahead of Labour in the battle for constituency and regional seats on May 3, and are set to be the biggest single party at Holyrood, the figures suggest.
But the poll also found most Scots want Scotland to stay in the UK, albeit with more powers for Holyrood.
Just 27 per cent believe Scotland should be a fully independent state, according to the Populus poll for The Times.
But the scale of the SNP lead - 10 points ahead in the constituency vote and seven points ahead in the regional vote - is likely to set alarm balls ringing in the Labour camp.
Its campaign so far has placed much emphasis on dire warnings that voting SNP could lead to independence.
But these figures suggest this is not working as a scare tactic.
And the high numbers backing the SNP but not independence could mean the Nationalists are the beneficiaries of a big anti-Labour protest vote.
Labour's Scottish health minister, Andy Kerr, said in response to the figures: "This poll shows that there is a clear choice between building Scotland with Labour and breaking up Britain with the SNP.
"Sustained attack from Labour has led to support for independence almost halving in less than a month - down to just 27 per cent - because Scottish families fear the risk of the SNP's core policy.
"Over the coming weeks we will focus on the £11 billion black hole at the heart of the SNP's spending plans and the £5,000 tax hike that they will impose on Scottish families every year.
"Tax will be the dividing line of this election. You don't get the SNP without independence - and you don't get independence without a cost."
The SNP said the poll showed its "positive" policies to make Scotland more successful reflected the Scottish mood.
"The poll also shows that Labour's negative campaign is rebounding on them," said deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon.
"Gordon Brown's tax-con Budget has bombed in Scotland."
She went on: "The SNP are pledged to scrap the council tax, and Labour's attacks on the SNP in defence of this iniquitous tax is a spectacular own-goal.
"Labour's unfair council tax and the SNP policy for fair local tax will be a major campaign issue.
"It is a big winner for the SNP in this election - overwhelmingly, people back the SNP in wanting to axe the council tax."
Ms Sturgeon said: "For the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead.
"That gives us encouragement, but we are taking nothing for granted and will work harder than ever before over the next 36 days to earn the trust and confidence of the Scottish people."
The figures are said to be the best of any published poll rating for the SNP since 2005 - and the worst for Labour since last June.
The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted from March 21-25, a period spanning the Budget and its aftermath.
In the constituency vote, the SNP was running at 38 per cent to Labour's 28 per cent, the Liberal Democrats' 15 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent and 6 per cent for others.
In the regional vote the SNP are running at 35 per cent to Labour's 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats' 14 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent, and 7 per cent for others.
These figures, Populus calculates, would make the SNP the biggest single party with 50 seats compared to 43 for Labour, 18 for the Liberal Democrats, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.
This would be enough for the SNP and the Liberals to form a coalition, if they could get over the stumbling block of the Liberal Democrats' insistence that they could not back an independence referendum.
When asked for their views on Scotland's future, 52 per cent of those polled by Populus thought the country should remain part of the UK but with more powers to run its own affairs, and just 27 per cent favoured complete independence.
Twelve per cent thought the current arrangements for devolution worked well.
And six per cent thought too much power had already been devolved to Holyrood.
Other figures in the poll contradict previous survey findings which put SNP leader Alex Salmond ahead as a potential First Minister.
The Populus figures give Jack McConnell and Mr Salmond 27 per cent each followed by 10 per cent for Tory leader Annabel Goldie and five per cent for Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen.
LABOUR yesterday admitted the Holyrood election campaign had hit a "critical" point after an opinion poll suggested that the SNP was heading for victory.
Labour Health Minister Andy Kerr insisted, however, that his party would continue driving home its message that a vote for the Nationalists meant a further step towards independence.
"It is a seminal, critical moment in terms of the campaign," said Mr Kerr.
"I think it offers the prospect of an SNP government here in Scotland and clearly our task is to ensure that doesn"t happen."
The Populus poll for The Times gave the SNP a big lead over Labour in both the constituency and regional vote. In the constituency vote, the SNP is running at 38 per cent, an unprecedented 10 points ahead of Labour, while the Liberal Democrats score 15 per cent, the Tories 14 per cent, and others six per cent.
In the regional vote the SNP is running at 35 per cent to Labour"s 30 per cent. The Lib Dems and Tories are both at 14 per cent, and others are on seven per cent.
Populus calculates this would give the SNP 50 seats to Labour"s 43, with 18 for the Lib Dems, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens. But the pollsters also found independence was favoured by just 27 per cent, while 52 per cent favoured Scotland still remaining part of the UK but with more powers.
In contrast to the mood of deep seriousness in the Labour camp, the SNP exuded quiet confidence.
"We take heart from the fact that for the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead," said deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon.
"In 1999, for example, Labour had a 13 point lead at the same stage. But we are taking nothing for granted and will work very hard over the next 36 days to earn the trust of the Scottish people."
The poll also showed approval for Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond level-pegging at 27 per cent when the public was asked who would make the best First Minister.
Mr Kerr admitted that Labour faced "a big,big challenge".
On the poll findings, he would lose his own seat in East Kilbride.
Attacking the economic case for independence he said: "In the next 24 hours, as the Parliament ends and the campaign begins, there is a very clear choice.
"Do people really want to have an SNP government in Scotland whose sole reason and purpose is independence, separation and divorce?
"That is the real choice we will be setting out in the next few weeks of the campaign."
LABOUR yesterday admitted the SNP are winning the Holyrood election race.
Health Minister Andy Kerr said the campaign was at a "critical" point after a poll suggested the Nats were well ahead in the fight for seats.
He warned: "It is a seminal, critical moment in terms of the campaign.
"I think it offers the prospect of an SNP government here in Scotland and clearly our task is to ensure that doesn't happen."
A Populus poll said the Nats are on course to claim 50 seats in the May 3 election, compared with 43 for Labour.
It is the first time Alex Salmond's SNP have gone into an election campaign leading in the polls.
In the race for constituency seats, 38 per cent of voters backed the SNP, compared with 28 per cent for Labour, although the race for top-up list seats was closer.
Despite the support, pollsters found only 27 per cent of voters wanted independence.
More than half - 52 per cent - want Scotland to remain in the UK but with more powers for Holyrood.
Labour are set to step up their attacks on the SNP, whose plans for independence and a local income tax would cost families £5000 a year, they claim.
Kerr said: "There is a very clear choice.
"Do people really want an SNP government in Scotland whose sole reason and purpose is independence, separation and divorce?
"You buy SNP, you get independence, you get cost."
SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said her party was in an "unprecedented" position going into a campaign leading in the polls.
But she tried to play down the party's core policy of independence.
She said: "The SNP have made it clear that May 3 is not the point of decision about independence for Scotland.
"The point of decision will come in a democratic referendum within our four-year term of office."
Labour say a referendum, probably in 2010, would create uncertainty for business and cost jobs.
They claim the SNP will create "turmoil" by deliberately picking fights with Westminster in a bid to sway the result of the referendum.
WITH JUST five weeks to go to the Holyrood elections, a senior Labour minister admitted yesterday his party's campaign has reached a "critical" point.
Health minister Andy Kerr conceded that an opinion poll out yesterday "offered the prospect of an SNP government."
The Populus poll published yesterday gives the SNP a big lead over Labour in both the constituency and regional vote.
In the constituency vote, the SNP is ahead by an unprecedented 10 points, running at 38% to Labour's 28%, while Liberal Democrats are running at 15%, the Tories 14% and others 6%.
In the regional vote the SNP is running at 35% to Labour's 30%, the Lib Dems at 14%, the Tories also at 14% and others at 7%.
Translated into seats this would make the nationalists the biggest single party with 50 seats to Labour's 43, the Lib Dems' 18, the Tories' 17 and one for the Greens.
At the same point in the run up to the first Scottish elections in 1999 the SNP were trailing ten points behind Labour.
At a press conference in Edinburgh Mr Kerr, who according to this poll would lose his East Kilbride seat, said, "It is a seminal, critical moment in terms of the campaign.
"I think it offers the prospect of an SNP government here in Scotland and clearly our task is to ensure that doesn't happen."
He admitted it would be a "disaster" if Labour lost seats on May 3 and rejected the notion that in some way his party's poor poll showing might encourage reluctant Labour voters to turn out on polling day.
"I could not say that a poll this time out, 10% behind our opponents, is good news."
Mr Kerr said Labour has five weeks to convince the electorate a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence and that independence had a price.
"We think we can close that gap," he said.
"Do people really want to have an SNP government in Scotland whose sole purpose is independence and separation?
"You buy SNP, you get independence and you get cost."
Mr Kerr said Labour had "won the argument" over independence, noting the Populus poll showed support for a separate Scotland has halved in recent weeks to just 27%.
But the SNP said May 3 is not the "point of decision" about independence and voters would get a chance to express their view in a referendum if the party forms the next Executive.
Deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon claimed the poll was "highly significant," but the SNP was taking nothing for granted.
"We take heart from the fact that, for the first time, the SNP are going into the election campaign with a clear lead.
"In 1999, for example, Labour had a 13-point lead at the same stage.
"But we are taking nothing for granted and will work hard over the next 36 days to earn the trust of the Scottish people."
Ms Sturgeon shrugged off the poll finding which put SNP leader Alex Salmond on an equal popularity footing (27%) with First Minister Jack McConnell.
"I believe strongly that Alex Salmond is a huge asset for the SNP, and I think that Labour does too," she said.
LABOUR is looking rattled after the latest opinion polls show the SNP with a clear lead just 36 days from the election. If the findings are correct, the Nationalists would be the biggest party in the Scottish Parliament and poised to lead a coalition government.
It wasn't meant to be like this. Labour strategists were relying on SNP support to melt away, as it has so often before when polling day draws near. Instead, for the first time ever the Nationalists are now set to enter the formal election period with a significant lead.
SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon points out that at the equivalent stage in the build-up to the first Scottish Parliament elections in 1999 Labour was ahead by 13 points. Labour is still hoping voters will pull back at the last minute from giving their support to a party which wants to "break up Britain".
But the Nationalists have managed to maintain a consistent lead for several months now. Yesterday's Populus poll - which put the SNP ten points ahead in the constituency vote and seven points ahead on the regional vote - seemed to hit Labour with the sudden realisation they really could lose. And a Scottish Opinion survey today endorses that view, showing the Nationalists with leads of six points and four points.
Labour activists insist the findings do not match what they are finding on the doorsteps, but senior figures admit the party is in trouble and there is little doubt the leadership is seriously worried.
Interestingly, the Populus poll found that despite the SNP's lead, support for the party's core principle of independence was just 27 per cent, compared with 52 per cent who wanted Scotland to stay within the UK but with more powers at Holyrood. That has prompted Labour to claim it has won the argument on independence and just needs to translate that into votes on May 3.
The trouble is the gap between support for the SNP and support for independence suggests people are choosing the Nationalists for some other reason - and that almost certainly means disillusionment with Labour. But despite Labour's focus on independence, the SNP has made it clear it will not take victory at the election as a mandate to start negotiations with Westminster on separation.
The question of Scotland's independence would be decided by a referendum, probably in 2010. Ms Sturgeon says: "What people will be voting for on May 3 is a change of government."
And that sums up Labour's problem. If people have decided it's "time for a change" and the mood is against them, then they face an uphill struggle to regain support. Some in the Labour camp believe the party's campaign so far has been too negative and it needs to send out more positive messages about Labour's achievements and proposals for the future.
But there is no sign of the party dropping the mantra which every Labour politician is expected to parrot about the Nats - "You don't get the SNP without independence - and you don't get independence without a cost".
One Labour insider says: "If you keep repeating the same thing over and over again people just get fed up and stop listening, but the ones in charge want to keep on with the negative stuff because it worked for us last time."
Another Labour source says several more polls are due out over the next week or so, which could change the picture. "By the end of next week, we might have a very different perspective on things," he says.
The SNP is prepared for fluctuations in the polls between now and May 3. It accepts the ups and downs of the campaign could have an impact on the party's ratings, but the Nationalists believe they are enjoying a boost from their conference in Glasgow a couple of weeks ago, which they hope will give them an extra cushion.
There was some good news for Labour in the Populus poll: Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond were equal on 27 per cent when people were asked who would make the best First Minister. That came as a surprise, given previous polls which have shown Mr Salmond with a big lead over the present incumbent. But Labour claims polling shows the more people see of Mr Salmond, the less they like him.
Populus claimed its poll findings would give the SNP 50 seats, Labour 43, the Lib Dems 18, the Tories 17 and the Greens one. But even SNP strategists take these projections with a pinch of salt because they underestimate the Greens and ignore independents and minority parties.
Scottish Opinion says today's poll would mean 46 seats for the SNP, 40 for Labour, 17 Lib Dems, 12 Tories, ten greens and four others. That would leave an SNP-Lib Dem partnership two short of a majority but possibly able to form a coalition with Green backing.
Neither the Lib Dems nor the Tories can take much comfort from the poll, which leaves them with more or less the same number of MSPs as now.
The Lib Dems have been fairly quiet so far, although leader Nicol Stephen did promise to cut red tape for businesses, which seemed a good idea until it was pointed out he has been Enterprise Minister for nearly two years.
And the Conservatives made a lacklustre start to the campaign earlier this week when their launch took the form of a brief 20-minute press conference in the vacant top floor of a half-empty office block in Holyrood Road.
The megaphones they used for their photocall didn't work either - but perhaps the silence was welcome. There will be plenty of noise over the next few weeks.
No one knows just how painful next month's Scottish elections will turn out to be for Labour, but after a blizzard of polls, the betting is that the sting could be very nasty indeed. The party has not just failed to recover first place from a Scottish National party that it has spent months attacking as a gang of reckless chancers, hellbent on destroying the constitution and the Scottish economy with it, but seen the SNP's lead grow. Last week a Populus poll put the party 10 points ahead of Labour on the constituency vote and five points ahead on the regional list vote. That outcome would put the SNP leader Alex Salmond on the brink of becoming first minister. It would be a calamity for Labour, a sensation for Britain and the worst of all welcomes for Gordon Brown, who could expect to become prime minister with Mr Salmond riding on his back, determined to skewer him from the start.
Of all the forces in the vortex currently tugging at Labour - among them Iraq and the cash-for-honours inquiry - the Scottish elections pose the most immediate threat to the chancellor's hopes of sweeping into office at the head of a reinvigorated government. He could pin some of the blame for any defeat on Mr Blair, whose departure, through bad timing, is likely to magnify the impact; too late to help at the polls and too early to protect Mr Brown from the fallout. But that small comfort would be as nothing to the constitutional agony of leading a British government in deadlock with a Scottish one.
Yet the paradox is that while support for the SNP is growing, backing for independence is dropping, down to just 27% in the recent Populus poll from majorities recorded by other pollsters last year. Labour's warnings seem to have had an impact on this. What they have not done is frightened voters away from the SNP: some may even feel secure in backing the party, now they can be confident that any referendum on independence would be lost. So today in Glasgow Mr Blair and Mr Brown will warn that the SNP's promises, even without independence, will cost Scottish families £5,000 a year. But such negativity cannot match the sense of daring that has made Mr Salmond (himself a fixture on the Scottish political scene) look like an anti-establishment figure. Labour is the establishment, and voters are in the mood to punish it for that.
The overlooked oddity is that they were in much the same mood when Scotland last went to the polls in 2003, and Labour support dropped heavily. Then, however, discontent boosted the Scottish Socialist party and the Greens. Now backing for these smaller parties has collapsed and the votes are concentrating behind the SNP, where they pack much more of a punch. In 2003, Labour's regional list vote was just over 29%. The recent Populus poll put it at 28%. That is hardly a meltdown (although the shift of constituency votes is greater), but would anyone notice if the outcome is an SNP-led executive in Holyrood?
The party's hope is that in the month remaining, it can persuade voters to stick with what they know, rather than risk the SNP's policy of creative instability, testing the union (and Mr Brown's patience) to its limit. So far, the first minister, Jack McConnell, has failed. Unless he can start sounding like he wants power and fears the SNP for something more fundamental than the possibility of being beaten by it - and a weekend televised debate was perhaps a sign that he can - the SNP will stay on course to come first. Such a result would not end the union. It might not bring about a referendum on independence. It might not even knock Labour out of power in Scotland, if pro-union parties work together. But it would be a humbling moment for New Labour and above all for Mr Brown, who has waited a decade for power, but is now struggling to persuade voters in his backyard that his party deserves to keep it.
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