 | 'The poll shows that Labour's high- profile offensive against independence over the last two months has failed to put any real dent in the SNP vote. If carried through into May's election, the poll results would give the SNP 44 seats to Labour's 41, with the Liberal Democrats on 23 and the Conservatives on 17.' Hamish MacDonell, Scottish Political Editor in the Scotsman, 31 st January 2007. |  |
DOUBTLESS Alex Salmond's face is graced by an even bigger smirk than usual this morning. During the nine weeks since our last poll, the Labour party has huffed and it has puffed - but it has still not brought his house down.
But the SNP leader is still a long way from being propelled to power in May.
He is going to need friends, but where should he turn?
At 5 per cent, the Greens are below the vital 6 per cent threshold they need to pass to win seats. Of course no poll can be sure that a party stands at 5 per cent rather than 6 per cent, but our projection does underline the potential precariousness of the Greens' parliamentary perch.
So Mr Salmond is going to have to look elsewhere - the Liberal Democrats.
Arithmetically at least it appears a SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition is a realistic option.
But of course whether the two parties can reach a political accommodation is perhaps the $64,000 question of this election - and one to which we will not receive an answer, if at all, until after 3 May.
And here comes the hidden bad news for Mr Salmond in our poll. On the basis of our projection not only could the Liberal Democrats strike a deal with the SNP, but they could also do so with Labour. True, Labour and the Liberal Democrats would still be one short of a majority, but doubtless they could entice at least one MSP from the ranks of the independents to help them.
In these circumstances Nicol Stephen, the Liberal Democrat leader, would have a trump card. He could always walk out and talk to the other side.
If Mr Salmond is to have a serious chance of becoming First Minister he has to do more than defeat Labour - he has to stop Labour and the Lib Dems from reaching anything close to 65 seats. And that target could still be beyond his reach.
The Scottish National Party's Campaign Director, Mr Angus Robertson MP, welcomed the result of the latest ICM opinion poll for the Scotsman newspaper today [Wednesday] - the third poll of the year to give the SNP a clear lead on both questions.
The results are:
Constituency Vote
| SNP | 33% |
| Lab | 31% |
| LibDem | 17% |
| Tory | 13% |
| SSP | 3% |
| Oth | 3% |
Regional Vote
| SNP | 33% |
| Lab | 27% |
| LibDem | 17% |
| Tory | 14% |
| Green | 5% |
| SSP | 3% |
| Other | 2% |
SNP Campaign Director Mr Angus Robertson MP said:
"We are absolutely delighted, this poll shows the SNP vote is rock solid and is now approaching the mid-30s on both questions. This is the third poll in a month to show the SNP clearly ahead, and on course to become the largest party.
"Since the 2003 election, there has been a swing of 7 per cent from Labour to the SNP. The SNP have never been in such a strong position just three months from the election - leading in both questions, and engaging people with our positive campaign to build a healthier, wealthier, more successful Scotland.
"By contrast, Labour are fighting a 'negative', 'London-based' and 'extreme' campaign - to quote the former First Minister Henry McLeish. The Labour campaign is a mess, and is now tainted by their 'cash for honours' crisis.
"The SNP are setting out a positive policy agenda to take Scotland forward. London Labour's silly scaremongering campaign just isn't working, as they continue to trail the SNP."
IT IS shaping up to be the most exciting election for a generation. The contest, on 3 May, could set Scotland on a course towards independence, it could lead to the first rainbow coalition in British political history or it could result in those traditional foes, Labour and the Conservatives, working together on a day-to-day basis to keep the nationalists out.
Yet, despite all this, 41 per cent of Scots have not made up their minds whether they will even bother to vote and a further 13 per cent are certain not to.
The figure, from this week's Scotsman/ICM poll, represents more than half the population - and it is they who could decide the result, if only a small number of them change their minds between now and polling day.
So who are they and what can the parties do to get them on board?
The Scotsman's poll does give some indication: it shows that middle-aged, affluent men are much more likely to vote and that women aged 18 to 24, and 45 to 54, are less likely to go to the polls.
The less well-off and council-house tenants are also more inclined to stay at home on polling day, as are those from Glasgow and the Lothians.
And, in what could be a key factor on polling day, the SNP vote is the most solid. A total of 63 per cent of SNP supporters said they were absolutely certain to vote, as opposed to 51 per cent for Labour and 49 per cent for both the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.
This gives the SNP an advantage and confirms what election experts have suspected for some time - that the Labour vote is more flaky than the nationalist vote and it could help propel the SNP to victory.
Labour is trying to secure a third term in Scotland and is halfway through a controversial third term at Westminster; it is possibly the worst time for Labour to face a resurgent SNP, but that is what is happening.
Some of those who said they were not certain to vote are traditional Labour supporters, disillusioned by the Iraq war, by the cash-for-honours affair and by the leadership of Tony Blair.
Labour has to get them back on board and to the polling stations to stand any chance of success, while the nationalists need them to either switch sides or, if that impossible, stay at home.
The SNP has decided new technology is the way forward. Alex Salmond is using regular podcasts to try to get to young, apathetic voters, deliberately following the former US president Bill Clinton's successful use of MTV to target the youth vote in the 1990s.
The Conservatives and the nationalists will produce election literature in Polish and other languages, but the Tories believe the real way to increase turnout, and their share of the vote, is to talk about real issues.
A Tory spokesman said: "
We will leave the big negative barneys to other parties."
A Labour spokesman said the party believed it could target Green Party supporters successfully, because the Greens are standing only on the regional list, not on the constituency ballot. "We are seen as the greenest of the other parties and should be able to take advantage of that," he said.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, believe they have the edge in persuading young voters, particularly first-time voters, on to their side.
But what about the people themselves?
Leah Jackson, 22, a job-seeker from South Queensferry, summed it up for many when he said: "It's just politics. I don't think my vote will make any difference. They all say things they don't really mean."
Then there are others, more politically aware, who might go to the polls but need to be persuaded that a party deserves their vote.
Gareth and Emma Forrester, from Broxburn, West Lothian, work for the government in Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs.
"Job security is the main issue and it depends what the parties say," Mr Forrester said.
But some of the electorate are so angry with the Scottish Parliament and its politicians that they will not even countenance voting.
Isobel Morgan, 62, from Edinburgh, said: "I'm not going to vote because that lot are making a hell of a bad job. They have no idea what they are doing, They are all as bad as each other."
The clear impression coming from a cross-section of uncommitted voters was of cynicism with the political process, boredom with politics and a lack of interest in the parties.
John Curtice, an election expert from Strathclyde University, said the election appeared exciting to the media, to politicians and to academics such as him, but there was no evidence that this view was shared by the voting public.
"The voters have to feel it is an exciting election and they have to feel there is a big difference between the parties," he said. "The best way to increase turnout would be if the BNP was running and the media said it had a chance of getting 20 per cent of the vote. The election would suddenly become exciting, and there would be a big difference between the parties."
Prof Curtice warned that the main parties were in danger of fuelling the apathy around the country with their modern electioneering methods.
"They don't have the resources on the ground any more to connect with the voters face to face.
They do telephone canvassing and put leaflets through doors, but face-to-face contact is almost dead," he said.
So the message to the parties is clear: don't all try to share the same centre-ground, be radical, be different, and go back to old-fashioned campaigning methods by talking directly to the voters.
There are more than a million Scots out there who may not vote, despite the best efforts of the parties - so far - to get them enthused.
This shows that what has been done is not working and that they need to try something else - and printing the manifesto in Polish or stressing a "positive message" is simply not going to work.
The party that is most successful at attracting the highest number of these uncommitted voters is going to win. It is as simple as that. The future of this country really does rest in their hands.
One vote really can make all the difference
MANY of those who won't bother to vote on 3 May use the same excuse - my vote won't make any difference. But nothing could be further from the truth.
The electoral system used for Holyrood elections makes every vote matter. The list system, as it is known, is a form of proportional representation. The 129 seats at the Scottish Parliament are divided into two groups: the 73 constituency seats and the 56 list seats.
The 73 constituency seats are decided in the traditional style of first past the post. The candidate receiving the most votes in each constituency wins and is elected to parliament. And it may be true that in some of these constituencies, where one party has a comfortable majority, voters might feel they cannot make a real difference.
But the other 56 seats are divided into eight regions and decided on a proportional basis, with seven MSPs allocated from each region.
A fairly complicated mathematical formula is used to allocate the seats, but put simply: the seats are allocated to each party based on the total percentage it receives in the region.The rule of thumb is that a base level of about 6 per cent of the popular vote is needed to win one seat.
This has meant that the smaller parties and independent candidates can get to parliament with just 6 per cent of the vote.
The first election in 1999 saw one Green MSP, Robin Harper, one SSP MSP, Tommy Sheridan and one independent, Dennis Canavan - all elected.
By 2003, the smaller parties had become much more aware of the potential of the valuable second, or regional, vote.
The Greens stood on the one simple message: "Second vote Green", and were rewarded with seven seats, while the SSP tried something similar and got six.
This time the main parties will be wise to the tactics of the smaller parties, so the battle for the second vote will be intense.
Some voters have decided to display traditional party loyalties with their constituency vote, while making a tactical or issue-based choice with their second. Others vote the same way with both ballot papers.
But the bottom line is that this time the contest is so tight that the regional list vote is likely to decide who forms the government - and you can't make a bigger difference than that.
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