 | 'Just what do the Scots want? Do they want independence? Do they want to end the Union? It depends, it would appear, upon how you pose the question.' Brian Taylor Political editor, BBC Scotland 16 th January 2007. |  |
| 'Just what do the Scots want? Do they want independence? Do they want to end the Union? It depends, it would appear, upon how you pose the question.' Brian Taylor Political editor, BBC Scotland 16 th January 2007. | |
Most people, including those in Scotland, think England should have its own parliament, a BBC poll suggests.
Newsnight found 61% in England, 51% in Scotland and 48% in Wales agreed with the idea.
The poll, carried out to mark 300 years since the Act of Union, was of 883 adults in England, 543 in Scotland and 527 in Wales.
Independence is expected to be a key issue in the Scottish Parliament elections in May.
Steve Uncles of the English Democrats, a group campaigning for an English parliament, told the BBC: "When something has this much momentum, there's only one way things can go.
"The current situation is unfair and English people, who have a sense of fair play, want a change."
More people in Scotland wanted the Union to remain rather than break up, Newsnight found.
However, only 17% of Scots and 20% of Welsh thought that the Union would continue for another 300 years.
Nearly a quarter - 23% - of those in England also thought it would be in place for that long.
Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond said the Scottish people should have a referendum on independence.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "There's far more support for independence than there's ever been."
He added: "People feel far more Scottish than British."
Mr Salmond said that, if independence was gained, Scotland would keep the pound in the short term, before adopting the euro.
He also accused the government of presiding over slow economic growth - 1.9% a year - in contrast with that for other small northern European nations, such as Ireland, Iceland and Norway.
'Serious questions'
But Transport Secretary Douglas Alexander, who is running Labour's campaign for the Scottish election, said: "The great outcome of devolution is it allows people to demonstrate their identity within the United Kingdom and, at the same time, not break up the United Kingdom."
Scottish identity was not "one-dimensional", he added, while there were "serious questions" to be asked about the affordability of independence.
Half of all those questioned by Newsnight thought the Union had less than a century to go - in England 49%, in Scotland 51% and in Wales 50%.
There was a division over whether there would be economic benefits if the three countries split.
In England, nearly a quarter - 24% - thought they would lose out and another quarter (25%) thought they would benefit. Another 44% thought it would make no difference.
Many more people in Scotland thought they would do worse out of separation (37%), while 31% though they would be better off.
The poll also found that 73% of people in England and 56% of those in Scotland wanted things to remain the way they were.
In Wales, 49% thought they would be worse off if the Union dissolved. Only 14% thought they would gain.
The Newsnight poll, carried out by Opinion Research Business, came after recent fresh calls for England to have its own Parliament.
In October, an architect of Scottish devolution said it was a "sovereign right".
Canon Kenyon Wright said it was "undemocratic" that Scottish MPs could vote on England-only issues but not vice versa.
He said he wanted to see "a strong English Parliament" and a strengthened Welsh legislature.
Opponents say they fear the break-up of the United Kingdom.
The English polled believed the end of the Union would make no difference to them (76%), with only 11% believing it would enhance English culture.
Jeremy Paxman and Kirsty Wark will host a BBC Newsnight debate on an Act of Disunion on BBC Two at 2230 GMT on Tuesday.
The 300th anniversary of Scotland's Union with England has been marked by renewed debate over the constitutional future.
A poll for BBC Newsnight suggests that a majority in Scotland want the Union to continue, although others have suggested backing for independence.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) has renewed its calls for a referendum on the future of the Union.
However, Labour said separation was a "tired, old-fashioned idea".
The poll for the BBC's Newsnight programme indicated that 56% of people in Scotland would like the Union to continue as it is, with 32% wanting it to end.
However, some other recent polls which were worded differently suggested that voters might favour Scotland becoming independent in a referendum.
The Newsnight poll, which questioned 883 adults in England, 543 in Scotland and 527 in Wales, also indicated support on both sides of the Border for an English Parliament.
Another opinion poll published in The Scotsman newspaper suggested 36% of Scots believe that the Union has had a positive effect, while 27% think it has had a negative effect.
The SNP is launching a new campaign which will highlight May's elections to the Scottish Parliament.
It's poster declares: "1707: No right to choose - 2007: The right to choose."
SNP leader Alex Salmond said: "Those in the London parties who would deny the people their right to choose are the political reincarnation of the 'parcel of rogues' of 1707 who sold Scotland away.
"Separation is a tired, old-fashioned idea and the Labour Party will fight for every vote in the Scottish elections to defeat the separatists in the SNP who seek to impoverish Scotland with their obsession with constitutions."
Scottish Parliament Presiding Officer George Reid was attending a reception on Tuesday at Dover House, home of the Scotland Office in London, hosted by Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander and Jack Straw, leader of the House of Commons.
It will see the launch of a commemorative £2 coin.
Mr Alexander said: "The United Kingdom has brought prosperity to the nations which formed it.
"Our nations have grown closer over the last 300 years with ties which are deepening still.
"Now half of Scots have family living south of the border and almost one in ten of the people living in Scotland were born in England."
Rational debate
Liberal Democrat leader Menzies Campbell called for a calm and rational debate on the role of MPs from the devolved nations.
"As Donald Dewar, the architect of the Scottish Parliament, made clear - 'devolution is a process not an event', for Westminster as well," he said.
Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie said there was "no question" the Union had made Scotland and England stronger.
"It contributes massively to our culture, strength and prosperity whilst enabling us to maintain a proud sense of national and local identity," she said.
"Scottish Conservatives are the staunchest supporters of the Union.
"The wrong response, as presented by Gordon Brown, is to bully Scotland into remaining part of the UK through fear of the economic consequences of going it alone."
Just what do the Scots want? Do they want independence? Do they want to end the Union? It depends, it would appear, upon how you pose the question.
Glance at the BBC/ORB poll published to coincide with the special Newsnight debate in Edinburgh to commemorate 300 years since Scottish politicians voted for the Union with England.
Voters were asked whether they wanted the Union to "continue as it is or see it come to an end".
They were further reminded that ending the Union would "mean that Scotland became an independent country".
The responses suggest that 56% of Scots would prefer the continuing Union, compared with 32% favouring its end.
In England, the figures were 73% supporting the Union with 16% urging an end. The Scottish figures are comparable with a YouGov poll in The Sunday Times which indicated that 53% of Scots thought the Union "worth maintaining" while 33% did not.
That would appear to be relatively clear. But look more closely at that and other polls.
Narrow majority
Look at YouGov in the Sunday Times last September.
Respondents then were asked: "If there was a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become independent, how would you vote?"
There was an apparent narrow majority for independence, 44% to 42%.
Look at an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph in November, suggesting 59% to 28% approval for "Scotland becoming an independent country".
Similar wording in an ICM poll for the Mail in January suggested 51% approval for Scotland becoming independent, with 36% disapproving.
English respondents also indicated support for Scottish independence, by 48% to 39%.
How to explain these disparities? It would appear that, if you stress soothing longer-term concepts like "becoming independent", then there is potential support for independence.
Nationalists say that would be the wording in their planned referendum, highlighting the move to independence as a process.
By contrast, if you lay stress on immediate issues like ending or breaking the Union, then potential support apparently declines.
Unionist politicians say that is the reality of what independence would involve. Further, the Sunday Times poll suggests popular apprehension that there might be tax rises or spending cuts under independence.
Labour says that indicates their claim of a "black hole" in SNP economic plans is getting through to voters.
'Scare stories'
Nationalists say the Sunday Times poll suggests they can build support for independence by neutralising what they call "Labour scare stories".
The BBC poll, of course, features both elements of the Union question in that it talks of the Union coming to an end but also points out to respondents that such a development would equate to Scotland becoming independent. Other findings in the BBC poll are also intriguing.
It suggests support north and south of the Border for an English Parliament to tackle the West Lothian question.
It suggests that voters feel independence would make little difference to cultural identities.
Do all these polls matter?
Yes. We could, of course, resort to the customary clichˇ that the only poll which really counts is the one on the day.
But, as with voting intention, the various polls on independence point to the nature of the campaign itself, to the two visions of independence. Nationalists will assuage, will talk of independence as Scotland's manifest destiny, will seek to counter economic concerns.
Unionists will talk in blunt, apocalyptic terms about the destruction of existing ties, will forecast economic collapse.
You, the voters, will choose.
Three hundred years ago today the proud Parliament of an independent Scotland voted to form a union with England. From that day to this Scots have argued whether Rabbie Burns was right to say that they'd been "bought and sold for English gold". The governments in Westminster and Edinburgh dare not organise a celebration of this anniversary which is so vital to our nation's history (beyond, that is, issuing a £2 coin).
Last week I had the privilege of reading the original hand-written minutes of the Parliamentary debates about the Union (watch my report here). Lord Belhaven's warning jumped from the page:
"I think I see the Honest Industrious Trades-man loaded with new Taxes and Impositions, disappointed of the Equivalents, drinking Water in Place of Ale, eating his saltless Pottage"
The Earl of Cromartie wrote that he was rather more enthusiastic about becoming British:
"May we be Brittains; & down goe the old ignominious names of Scotland; of England... Brittains is our true our Honourable denomination."
So, will this be the year the union is strengthened or fatally weakened?
The polls - including our own - appear at first sight to tell a confusing story. In truth, the story is rather simple. Many voters want to give Labour a kicking in May's elections to the Scottish Parliament. Many believe that the best way to do that is to vote SNP even if they do not support independence. The polls show that support for breaking the union is no higher than it has been provided people understand the question they're being asked. Ask them whether they back "independence" and as many as half say they do (it is, perhaps, like asking if they support "freedom"). Ask a harder question about breaking away from England - as our BBC poll did - and the figure plummets.
So, the politics of the next few months will involve the nationalists playing down their plans for independence by promising a referendum on the issue one day rather than pledging a swift, clean break. Labour, on the other hand, will play up the uncertainty the Nationalists will create and the economic consequences that will pose.
Meantime, the Tories are pondering whether to embrace calls for "English votes for English laws" - supported in our poll today. It is tempting them because it's popular, it highlights Gordon Brown's Scottishness and many believe it's fair. Mr Brown's nightmare scenario is that the SNP become Scotland's largest party, delay a referendum on independence until they can raise the fear of Tory rule from Westminster again and that that proves enough to persuade Scottish voters to abandon caution and take a giant leap into the unknown.
It's one more reason why 2007 promises to be intriguing.
Tensions in 1707; strains in 2007; stresses in the years between. The first article of the Treaty of Union, ratified 300 years ago today, proclaimed: "That the Two Kingdoms of England and Scotland shall . . . forever after be United into One Kingdom by the name of GREAT BRITAIN." The treaty was the result of a marriage of convenience between the ruling elites in London and Edinburgh, and was approved by the Scottish Parliament, voting itself out of existence in the process, in the face of much popular hostility.
As T M Devine points out in The Scottish Nation, a long and rocky road was travelled before the new relationship between the two countries was formalised. "At some points along this difficult route the very survival of the new Union was sometimes in grave doubt," he writes. As celebrations get under way today to commemorate that new state's tercentenary with a £2 coin, the Union finds itself negotiating another rocky road that could end in independence, a destination that would consign to history the entity built to last an eternity. That would be the likely outcome of the SNP winning a working majority of seats in May's Scottish parliamentary elections, as several opinion polls have suggested would be the case. Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, plans a white paper to explain what would be involved in a plebiscite on independence. Meanwhile, the Nationalists would get on with the business of government. According to a new BBC poll, only one-third of Scots think the Union should break up. This suggests Mr Salmond still faces a major task to reassure voters who do not make self-rule a priority but who are attracted by other SNP policies. Delaying a referendum for perhaps three or four years would, he hopes, give the SNP time to demonstrate that the party was fit for government and could equally run an independent Scotland.
The same poll suggests that a vote for the Nationalists might not be seen as such a gamble. Some 51% of Scottish, 50% of Welsh and 49% of English people polled thought the Union would continue to survive for less than a century. Yet fewer Scots say they support the party best placed to deliver an outcome many more think is inevitable within the next 100 years. That game is too long for today's Nationalists to play.
But the Unionist parties in Scotland, led by Labour, cannot afford to be complacent about the future, especially in light of recent polls. Tony Blair delivered on devolution, intending that a reconvened Scottish Parliament, with discrete powers over domestic affairs, would halt the independence bandwagon. But a cursory look at history would tell the Prime Minister that Scotland's relationship with England within the Union has been an at-times fraught work in progress. Most Scots were won over to the Union, but discontent about Scotland's power at Westminster led to the Secretaryship for Scotland being established in 1885. As an act of appeasement, it had limited effect. In 1926, the Scottish Secretary was made a Secretary of State, and in 1939 the Scottish Office moved to Edinburgh. Change was made by government at Westminster intent on preserving the Union by allowing, on its terms, a narrow expression of Scottish distinctiveness. It was an equivocal relationship that gave rise to devolution. That, too, is a work in progress. If the Union is to survive, the Unionist parties, and Labour in particular, must recognise this.
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