 | 'The Union between England and Scotland, and the United Kingdom of four countries, has been a huge success for all of its component parts.' Simon Hughes MP, Liberal Democrat President and self-proclaimed "Straight Choice", 14 th January 2007. |  |
| 'The Union between England and Scotland, and the United Kingdom of four countries, has been a huge success for all of its component parts.' Simon Hughes MP, Liberal Democrat President and self-proclaimed "Straight Choice", 14 th January 2007. | |
IF NEW Labour and leader-elect Gordon Brown want to convince the
public of the enduring benefits of the union, they need to marshal
more convincing arguments than those which have so far formed the
core of their case.
Brown was at it again this weekend, beginning his first major
interview with a Scottish newspaper for some time with a dire warning
of the effects independence would have on the close personal ties
many Scots have with relatives and friends in England.
It is frankly nonsense to suggest that a vote for the SNP would have
any effect on our ability to visit family and friends south of the
Border. There are, as far as we are aware, no plans to build the
equivalent of the Berlin Wall between the countries, nor to introduce
draconian border patrols. Most of us have been negotiating passport
controls happily for years. It's impossible to take seriously
suggestions that we would have to give up regular visits to an aunt
in Sussex if constitutional arrangements changed.
That is not to say the arguments for independence have won the day.
Brown is on stronger grounds on the economic questions which
independence would throw up. These are central to the argument which
will increasingly dominate this year's Scottish election campaign and
which this newspaper will analyse in the weeks ahead.
But if New Labour really believe there has to be a big debate'' about
British values, which acknowledges diversity while celebrating what
we have in common, why is the 300th anniversary of the Act of Union
this year being marked in such a low-key manner both north and south
of Border?
A few exhibitions and a specially minted coin do not add up to a
concerted attempt to capture public imagination and provoke serious
discussion about the future of the United Kingdom. It suggests,
instead, a missed opportunity.
Of course, it could be the Chancellor's much-touted manifesto for
Britishness is inspired more by self-interest - how will the West
Lothian question affect his political ambitions - than by a genuine
concern that Scotland is on the verge of a historic break from the UK.
The most recent System 3 Poll, which we exclusively report today,
suggests New Labour will emerge from the Holyrood elections as the
largest party, although it continues to suggest a slight growth in
support for the SNP.
Whether we are seeing a dangerous drift" to separatism or just
slightly hysterical electioneering remains to be seen. What's certain
is that we deserve a higher standard of debate and a more serious
connection with the issues than we have so far been offered by New
Labour at Holyrood and Westminster.
Scottish Nationalists welcomed a new poll today which put them six points ahead of Labour in the constituency vote as the Holyrood elections draw ever closer.
The SNP claimed the figures represented its biggest lead in any poll since 2000.
The survey by YouGov for the Sunday Times, conducted days ahead of the 300th anniversary of the Act of Union, put the nationalists on 35% in the first past the post vote and Labour on 29%.
The Lib Dems polled 18%, while the Tories recorded 13% support.
On the second "list" vote, which allocates seats by proportional representation, the SNP was on 32% and Labour netted 30% support.
The newspaper claimed that if the study's findings were replicated at the ballot box, the swing would unseat four of Labour's Scottish Parliament ministers.
But despite the findings, the poll of 1,005 voters in Scotland and 1,924 voters in England suggested only a minority of voters were in favour of Scottish independence.
More than half of Scots - 53% - said they believed the Union was worth keeping, and only 28% of English voters said they thought Scotland should go its own way.
The study came after a recent poll in the Daily Mail put support for Scottish independence at 51% in Scotland - and at 48% in England.
And a survey for the Sunday Telegraph in November suggested support for independence was running at 52% in Scotland and 59% in England.
The SNP's campaign director Angus Robertson MP said the latest figures represented the party's strongest poll rating of the election campaign so far.
He said: "We have a six-point lead over Labour on the first question, and are six-points up since the last Sunday Times/YouGov poll in September.
"In polls with all the party preferences, this is the SNP's biggest Holyrood lead in any poll since the fuel crisis of 2000.
"The Scottish Parliament election is a straight two-horse race between the SNP and London Labour.
"This poll is clear evidence that Labour's negative campaign has backfired, and people are increasingly attracted to an SNP campaign that is positive about Scotland."
Reacting to the figures, Labour pointed to a poll in today's Sunday Herald, which put Labour ahead of the SNP.
The TNS System Three poll showed Labour on 38%, five points ahead of the Nationalists in the constituency vote.
In the list vote, they recorded support of 31%, with the SNP on 30%.
A Labour spokesman said: "We know that the only consistent thing about the polls is their inconsistency.
"It is clear that there is no discernible trend and no consistent pattern on voting intentions."
He said the polls did, however, show that voters remain unconvinced by the SNP's arguments on independence.
"When you look beyond the unreliable voting intention figures and examine specific opinion, there remains deep rooted opposition to the core SNP policy of separation," he said.
"The only other thing we can be sure of is that when it comes to the SNP, opinion polls are rarely accurate - they overestimate their support and they do not reflect their results on polling day.
"In the 2001 General Election, 2003 Scottish Parliament election and 2005 General Election no poll accurately predicted the correct result in Scotland.
"So while they may make extravagant claims based on one off poll findings, they haven't learned that poll findings rarely reflect actual votes in the ballot box - especially when it comes to voting Nationalist."
The Liberal Democrats said the poll hailed by Nationalists today only put the SNP three points ahead of where they were in January 2003.
By contrast, the Liberal Democrats were six points ahead of their position three years ago, a spokesman said.
He said: "The SNP are clearly panicking as it becomes clear that no matter how bitter their battle with Labour becomes, the Scottish public are not turning towards independence.
"While Labour and the SNP continue to fight each other, the Lib Dems will be fighting for schools and hospitals."
The SNP pledge to hold a referendum on independence - as early as this year - was yesterday thrown into doubt.
Alex Salmond opened up room for coalition negotiations after the May election, saying the choice would only be put once people had a chance to debate and digest the proposals being put forward.
The SNP leader said the party remained determined to have a referendum within the four-year term, but previously he had promised to move swiftly to legislation for a referendum.
Yesterday's change should give him more room to compromise with other potential coalition partners - Liberal Democrats in particular - on when that might be and under what conditions.
He said: "Initially, we'll publish a white paper, so that people understand the proposal, can see the proposal published, have time to discuss, debate and digest it. But within the four-year term, if the people speak in favour of a referendum, then a referendum there shall be."
He had previously said the bill would be introduced within 100 days, and his party has published a bill to illustrate how simple it could be.
However, he dismissed the sample bill yesterday. "There is a world of difference between being an opposition saying this is what we're talking about' and being in government."
Mr Salmond went on to explain further: "I'm not going to argue over the principle of the referendum, but what we have to do is have some flexibility in the timing, so we'll introduce the bill into the parliament when the timing is right."
The tactical change was described as "panic" by LibDems, while Labour's deputy campaign director, Lord George Foulkes, said Mr Salmond was "going soft and running scared because he has finally realised just how unpopular independence is".
The SNP cause received a substantial boost yesterday with the endorsement of the party and Mr Salmond by Crawford Beveridge, former chief executive of Scottish Enterprise who now works for Sun Microsystems.
"I believe independence could focus the minds of politicians to create the conditions for economic growth, which would translate to better jobs, higher wages and stronger communities," the business leader said.
He downplayed fears about Scotland running a deficit, saying many countries do so, and added: "Scotland is just as capable of running its own affairs as any country."
The argument for Holyrood having at least more fiscal powers has gained ground in the business community in recent months, while Labour First Minister Jack McConnell has expressed frustration that unionist business leaders are too reluctant to go public with their fears about separation.
There was mixed evidence yesterday on the prospect of Mr Salmond becoming First Minister, with one poll giving the SNP a clear lead, and another showing Labour increasing its share of seats.
A YouGov poll showed his party has a six-point lead on the headline question of constituency voting intentions, and a two-point lead on the regional vote.
On the constituency poll, the web-based survey put the SNP on 35, Labour on 29, LibDems 18 and Conservatives 13. On the regional vote for list MSPs, the SNP was on 32, Labour 30, LibDems 14, Tories 14, Greens five and both far-left parties on one.
Another poll, taken by ONS System Three, would see Labour gain two seats on its 2003 result. In face-to-face interviews, the opinion survey company has consistently found comfortable Labour leads, in contrast with other pollsters.
On the constituency vote, it put Labour on 38, the SNP on 33, LibDems on 14 and Tories on 11. On the constituency vote, it showed Labour with 33% support, with the SNP having 30, LibDems 16, Tories 13, Greens six and socialists three.
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